Fantasy Football Advice

In July and August we were so young and unspoiled.  Then, September rolled around and we could barely contain our naughty parts.  But the season brought with it some harsh realities.  One being that you have no control of what happens on the field!  Now, it’s January; cold and dark and even if you won your league, there were times this season you doubted who you were, questioned your faith, and felt the taint of bad decisions. Well, today we’re going to take a look back on the 2009 season without malice or bias. Oh, wait, WITH malice and bias, a lot of it.  We’ll use the standard ESPN scoring for the official final rankings and see where we had them in preseason and then make excuses as to why we were wrong.

This was the year of the quarterback. A total of 10 QB’s had over 4,000 yards which smashes the record of 7 in 2007.  I’m sure this has nothing to do with new rules that cart quarterbacks around in Pope Mobiles.

1. Aaron Rodgers: ARodg was sacked over and over until he thought he was a defective weeble.  But he took his lumps and the Pack Attack finally turned things around.  His 3rd down prowess was unreal and his scrambling ability boosted his stats once again with 5 rushing touchdowns.  Now, if he could just stop doing that Freddy Mitchell championship belt move.  Preseason Rank #5, 2009 Projections:  4000/29/13 – 2/125, Final Numbers:  4434/30/7 — 5/316

2. Drew Brees: He is by far the most reliable QB year to year for fantasy right now.  I don’t usually recommend taking a QB in the first round, and I probably never will, but I did give this little tidbit, “Will Rivers or Rodgers give you comparable numbers in the 3rd or early 4th round?  Maybe, possibly, and could be, but will Brees give you top 5 overall fantasy numbers? I think so.” And that’s me quoting me, stealing from Grey. Rodgers did give you the numbers so it was worth waiting on him, but Brees is not going to disappoint.  Preseason Rank #1, 2009 Projections:  4650/36/14, Final Numbers:  4388/34/11 — 2/33

3. Brett Favre: Um, yeah, Favre wasn’t around when I made the projections, but I’m not going to blow smoke up your arse and tell you we’re going to a Charlie Weis welcome to Kansas City BBQ party.  My reaction to the signing was, “This should help most of the fantasy prospects of the Vikings, at least until Brett’s arm flops off his torso and shimmies down a Metrodome drainage pipe.”  His arm stayed attached and he forgot how to throw interceptions.  His season really was nothing short of miraculous. Preseason Rank DNR,  Final Numbers:  4202/33/7

4. Peyton Manning: It’s Peyton Manning, what can I say.  The guy is too good to be real.  If there were Stepford Quarterbacks he would be their leader. He’s not slowing down.  He threw a few more picks than we are used to, but he also had his most attempts since ‘02.  This all came after Anthony Gonzalez went out early in the first game of the season. He took two green receivers in Collie and Garcon and made them a cool shade of (whatever color denotes good). Preseason Rank #3, 2009 Projections:  4300/32/9, Final Numbers:  4500/33/16

5. Matt Schaub: I invited Schaub to a couple of my teams and was glad to have him at my party.  He led the league in yardage, which was partially due to the Texans anemic running game/Kubiakian mind games, but also due to Schaub’s ability.  He lost Owen Daniels which hurt, but Andre Johnson picked up the slack.  If the Texans get Daniels back and maybe grab another WR in free agency, Schaub will be worth a top pick (and even if they don’t do those things). Preseason Rank #9, 2009 Projections:  3550/26/12, Final Numbers:  4770/29/15

6. Tony Romo: I wrote back in the day, “He has his BFF Witten, a good receiver in Roy (I play offense) Williams, a deep threat in Miles Austin and good running backs, with good hands.  A great season in Big D isn’t a lock, but Romo has the skill and the team to shut up his detractors.”  Looking back I have two regrets, using the term BFF and calling Roy Williams good.  Preseason Rank #7, 2009 Projections:  4000/26/14 – 1/50, Final Numbers:  4483/26/9 — 1/105

7. Tom Brady: Lady and gentlemen, your comeback player of the year!  Huh?  I think a comeback player of the year should be someone you expect to be in jail, a mental institution, or an infirmary instead of scoring touchdowns (think Cedric Benson, Vince Young or Cadillac Williams).  I expected a lot more from Brady this year.  Wes Welker’s injury early in the season didn’t help, but the Patriots never really hit on all cylinders.  Preseason Rank #2, 2009 Projections:  4550/35/13, Final Numbers:  4398/28/13 — 1/44

8. Philip Rivers: Rivers did about what I expected of him, but LT vultured a few of his touchdowns while pretty much being horrid otherwise.  Rivers looks like my 6 year old nephew throwing the ball, but unlike my nephew he doesn’t hit himself in the head with the ball.  Preseason Rank #4, 2009 Projections:  4150/34/13, Final Numbers:  4254/28/9 — 1/50

9. Ben Roethlisberger: For an ADP of around 100 Big Ben was a good value pick.  This year was the year of the quarterback when 4300 yards and 26 TDs gets you ninth in the fantasy books.  I didn’t foresee the Steelers turning to a throw first attitude and as soon as Big Ben starts moving up the draft board next year, the Stillers will probably get back to running first and second and throwing third. Preseason Rank #14, 2009 Projections:  3450/21/14 — 1/50, Final Numbers:  4328/26/12 — 2/82

10. Donovan McNabb: If Donovan hadn’t missed a couple games with broken ribs, he would have lifted his numbers above my projections, but still wouldn’t have gotten to the 6th best fantasy QB.  Like I said, the competition was fierce this year.  I thought we had gotten rid of Favre!  McNabb was up and down as usual, but he is still solid and his young receivers should keep him in the fantasy cash monies for a few more years.  Preseason Rank #6, 2009 Projections:  3750/25/12 – 1/125, Final Numbers:  3553/22/10 — 2/140

Wildcard weekend was a long boring journey through Snoresville, Blowout Town, and Not This Againburgh, but thankfully our final destination was Awesome Shootout Into Overtime Heights.  The Cardinals and Packers put up a record 96 combined points and helped restore my faith that there could be exciting football.  No, I don’t have to have a lot of scoring to like a game, but some question as to the outcome does help pique my interest!

The Cardinals move on to face the Saints in a game that could break 100! The Jets travel to San Diego to try out Rex Ryan’s “If you say it, it will happen” philosophy.  The Ravens take their running game sans passing game to Indianapolis.  And the Cowboys travel to the recirculated climes of the Metrodome to take on the Favres.

Kurt Warner: He had more touchdown passes than incompletions.  That my friends, is what we like to call in the business, amazing.  He’s getting old, has a crazy Stepford Wife, and may sometimes get a little too high on his Jesus horse, but going 29 for 33, for 379 yards and five touchdowns in the playoffs after taking his team to the Super Bowl the previous year has cemented his ticket to the Hall, but of course now he’ll need a jackhammer to get it out.

Aaron Rodgers: His first playoff game started horribly and ended horribly, but in between he threw for 422 yards, ran for a touchdown, and threw for four more.  He was the best fantasy QB in the league this year and will be leading the charge of yet another great crop of QB’s next year (giving us no reason to draft one in the first round).  That’s two years as a starting QB and twice that he’s been one of the top 2 fantasy QB’s.  Gotta love those rushing TD’s!

Jermichael Finley: The Cardinals had no answer for Finley (what was the question again?) and they allowed him 6 catches for 159 yards.  He finished the season strong and there is no reason to think he can’t be a top 5 TE next season.  Jeremychael can only get better with a great young QB throwing to him.

Steve Breaston: Matt Leinart’s favorite named receiver had a field day with Boldin on the bench.  He only caught one of Warner’s five TD passes, but did accumulate 7 receptions and 125 yards.

Early Doucet: He did his best Anquan Boldin tribute which may allow him to just take over his job completely next year; think Mark Wahlberg in Rock Star.  His 2 touchdowns and 77 yards might be his high for the playoffs if Boldin comes back, but Early will be on some fantasy teams sooner or later.

Larry Fitzgerald: He continues his insane playoff statistical run with 2 touchdowns and 82 yards and a fumble which we don’t have to talk about.  He did pretty blatantly run over Charles Woodson twice before catching both touchdowns, but it ain’t a foul unless you get flagged or kill someone.

Greg Jennings: He finished the season strong, and got on the shootout train in the playoffs for 8 receptions, 130 yards and a touchdown. He ended up as the 20th wide receiver in fantasy and it’s hard not to see him upping his numbers next season, but of course we thought he wouldn’t suck this season.  The Packers still need to improve their pass blocking, but Jennings has skills.

Joe Flacco: The sophomore QB led his team to a decisive 33-14 victory over the Patriots in Foxboro.  Well, when I say led, I may be overstating a bit. Handed off to might be the better wordage.  Flacco finished with 4 completions, 5 if you count his interception, and 34 yards.

Ray Rice: He had a day’s worth of stats after the first play of the game.  Rice is, how do you say in English, superstartastic.  There’s a chance McGahee won’t be back next season and I could easily see him drafted #3 overall with room to spare.  He ended the day with 159 yards and 2 touchdowns and will get plenty of use in Indianapolis next week.

Tom Brady: 3 interceptions, 2 touchdowns and 154 yards on 42 pass attempts is about right for the Pats quarterback who never looked right with Randy Moss taken out the game.  Moss’ knees weren’t 100%, Brady’s ribs were broken, Welker was gone, and a host of excuses that are probably just that, helped in making the Patriots look human-like.  The Patriots aren’t the same team and it’s starting to look like they might not be again.

Julian Edelman: He looked like he was also hurting for a lot of the game, but he also looked like he would amputate pieces of his body just to stay in the game.  The guy was scrappy, but a skilled kind of scrappy, skillpy, scrapilled? He got into the endzone twice and made some good punt returns.  Welker won’t be back at the beginning of the season and Julian will be a factor in fantasy next year.

Mark Sanchez: He had been a liability for much of the season, but miraculously poise-gutted himself into a solid rookie playoff performance going 12 for 15 for 182 yards and a touchdown.  Thankfully, for the Jets, he didn’t have to win the game for them because Carson Palmer and Shonn Greene tag teamed to do that.

Shonn Greene: Speaking of Mr. Greene, his 135 yards and a touchdown was the driving force for the Jets on Saturday and even though I’m sure I’ll have to eat my words like every time I say Tom Jones is done, I think Greene will lead the Jets in rushing attempts next season.

Braylon Edwards: If you are on Twitter it’s always a little amusing to see the Edward’s tweets explode every time he drops a pass, which happens as much as you think.  After dropping a sure touchdown bomb Sanchez smartly stayed away from him for the rest of the game.

Dustin Keller: If you drafted Keller with the hopes that he wouldn’t suck, his huge game against the Bengals didn’t help you in any way possible.  He only had 3 receptions, but went for 99 yards and a touchdown.

Carson Palmer: In his passing matchups article, Mark speculated that Palmer might be hiding an injury.  If he isn’t, then he just plain sucks, but either way, he was not on target against the Jets, completing just 50 percent of his passes for 146 yards, a touchdown and an interception.

Cedric Benson: Benson showed on Saturday that his success isn’t just the product of superior offensive line play.  He looked quick and powerful and even though I loathe giving him a good projected draft slot for next season, he may have won me over.

Chad Johnson: He was stranded on Revis Island all day and I still don’t think anybody has gone looking for him.

Tony Romo: He led the Cowboys to a big Wade Phillips Job Saving victory and did it in efficient fashion.  Things are coming up roses for the Cowboys. I wonder how they’ll blow it?

Felix Jones: Marion Barber didn’t “feel right,” which may be code for, “I was outplayed so badly by Felix the Great that I need to come up with an excuse,” but I have been wrong before.  Jones and Choice looked like the duo that needed to be out there anyway.  As long as Jones is healthy he is an elite talent, but the guy is a bit brittle.

Donovan McNabb: He ended up with 230 yards, a touchdown and an interception in the Eagles second humiliating loss in a row to their rival.  Reid says McNabb will be back and I believe he will be.  He will continue to be a good upside fantasy option if he can stay healthy.

Jeremy Maclin: Really the only bright spot for the Eagles, Maclin had 146 yards and a touchdown.  DJax and Maclin should help the Eagles remain contenders next season in Reid’s pass happy, no Super Bowl winning, offense.

Before we look at the games, I want to say thanks to Doc for stepping in for 3 weeks while I closed and moved into my first house. Like Pedro Cerrano, you’re in good hands with Doc. Regular season fantasy leagues are over, but there’s a lot of fantasy playoff leagues as well, and if you haven’t joined one yet, be sure to check out our Sporting News playoff league and/or our playoff challenge at NFL.com.

For these playoff games, I’m adding a short “What To Watch” section. I often pick a particular position matchup or aspect of the game that I intend to focus on, to break the habit of just watching the ball on every play. Sometimes the camerawork dictates how successful this endeavor is, but I’ve found it’s a good way to start noticing other parts of the game.

Saturday 4:30 EST

New York Jets @ Cincinnati

Great start to the passing matchups…the Jets and Bengals combined for 63 yards passing last week. Even if you don’t count the sack yardage against the total, it doesn’t crack 100 yards between the two teams. While I expect improved totals from both teams, it’s hard to feel good about this matchup. The Jets won’t be able to run 57 times like last week, so while I can’t recommend Sanchez, there’s at least an opportunity for Cotchery to get some looks. Dustin Keller is affected more by Sanchez’s inconsistent play than the opposing defense.

NYJ: Sanchez -2, Cotchery -1, Edwards -2, Keller -1 (more…)

A lot of you have joined our playoff league over at Sporting News and if you haven’t, go back and click on that Sporting News link, or this one, they’re the same.  I’ve been a fan of Sporting News salary cap games for a while now.  Compared to other sites, you can’t just start off with a team of studs, which makes strategy more important. At least I like to tell myself that since I won the big prize a few years back.  In the playoff game you also don’t have enough cash to throw together a great team.

You start with 35 million to spend on 2 QB’s, 2 RB’s, 2 WR/TE’s and 1 Defense. If I had unlimited cash here is a team I would like:

Aaron Rodgers 9.25

Tony Romo 7.75

Ray Rice 8.00

Ryan Grant: 6.25

Randy Moss 6.65

Larry Fitzgerald 6.25

New York Jets 3.35 (more…)

There may be a few of you doing a playoff draft or a salary cap league so I decided to put together a rankings/draft sheet.  It’s a tricky thing, playoff leagues.  You have to account for the chance that the team your player is on could lose quickly, no matter how good you think the team is.  I am ranking them with some thought to who might win, but more toward how I think they’ll play.

Don’t forget to join us in our two playoff leagues: you can join our Sporting News playoff league and/or our playoff challenge at NFL.com.

Here we have QB’s and RB’s.  Look for the WR’s, TE’s, K’s and D’s soon.

Quarterbacks:

There are a ton of good QB’s in the playoffs this year.  I wonder what you need more to be a successful NFL team, a good QB or good RB?  Rhetorical question.  With all the talent here much depends on how many games you will get out of them.  For my money Aaron Rodgers has the best shot of playing the most games, but that is a guess.  If you get him and he loses in the wildcard round you better have a backup! It might be best to wait on a QB since they are so deep and grab a starting RB you think will contribute the longest?

1. Peyton Manning: Whatever the Colts’ “psyche” is, I could care less. Peyton is a machine and he runs a machine and unless the other team disrupts that machine’s mechanics they won’t lose.  Their state of mind when playing won’t change.  Of course you won’t be able to use him in the first round!

2. Philip Rivers: Is Rivers better than Drew Brees? Can’t say for sure, but I like Rivers’ team more and the Saints will have tough competition to get to the championship game.

3. Aaron Rodgers: ARodg ended up the #1 fantasy QB for 2009 and his team has been playing lights out. Rodgers looks like he has at least a slim chance of playing in every playoff game.  If you have faith in the Packers you can’t do much better.

4. Drew Brees: The Saints have lost three in a row and don’t play in the first round.  He has a ton of upside, but if he doesn’t get into the championship game he was a wasted pick.  Like every player you have to do a little Carnac work, if you like the Saints chance of going to Miami.  Grab him.

5. Brett Favre: If the Vikings hadn’t gotten home field I would have him lower, but I think they righted the ship enough and The Favres like the domes.

6. Tony Romo: He has a ton of risk attached to him.  The Cowboys haven’t won a playoff game since 1896.  But they have been looking too good to blindly say they will choke.  Romo would be the steal of the playoffs if he could lead his team to Miami.

7. Donovan McNabb: Not too long ago I had the Eagles going to the bowl, but oh how fickle fate can be according to Beth Orton and any team that doesn’t win the Super Bowl.  They could be sitting at how eating bean dip and Fritos, but they got spanked in Dallas and now have to go back there.  I think they have a good chance to win this game, but not if they play anywhere close to last weekends performance.

8. Tom Brady: He dropped pretty far in my rankings based solely on Wes Welker’s injury.  That could be a bit reactionary of me, but Welker leaves a pretty big hole in the offense.  If Edelman can come up big they could do something, but that is a lot to ask.

9. Kurt Warner: Could be the absolute steal of the playoffs (I know I said that about Romo already, sue me!), but I think his first game is too risky to put all my eggs in Warner’s Power Chair basket.

10. Joe Flacco: Flacco is a great backup choice if you are going with a QB with a first round bye.  He gets a poor Patriots secondary in the wildcard round and you could get lucky and the Ravens could go deep in the playoffs.

11. Mark Sanchez: I think the Jets will beat the Bengals so that is the only reason Sanchez is ahead of Palmer, that, and the Jets pass defense.

12. Carson Palmer: He’s starting.  That’s his biggest upside.

13. Matt Leinart: Warner is old.

14. Kevin Kolb: If you have a big roster he has a lot of upside if McNabb goes down.

15. Billy Volek: Same as above.

Running Backs:

There are very few stud running backs in the playoffs.  Would you rather have Joseph Addai or Ray Rice?  Well, next year’s draft will probably be a different answer than what you’ll get here.  The Ravens could beat the Pats, but it will be tough and then they’d get a very good team on the road.  The playoffs bring out strange game plans and sometimes backup RB’s get stats you wouldn’t expect.  It’s a very good idea to horde as many backup/RBBC type backs as you can.

1. Adrian Peterson: Elite back on a good team.  Bit of a no brainer.  Will they go all the way? I have no idea, but they have a decent chance.

2. Joseph Addai: Donald Brown doesn’t look like he’s going to take too much away from Addai and the guy knows how to get into the endzone. Not a sexy pick, but a reliable, William H. Macy kinda pick.

3. L.T.: Another TD machine on a good to great team. He’ll be rested for his goal line vulturing.

4. Ryan Grant: Again, the Packers are my, cross my fingers and give them a shot team.  I am not good at calling games.  If I was I’d bet on them and be able to keep Sallie Mae from stalking me, bitch, but I’m putting my fantasy bucks on them, with a lot of hedging.

5. Ray Rice: He’s unbelievable and if I thought the Ravens had a shot to go all the way he’d be in the top 2.  Yes, McGahee exploded on the Raiders, but Rice is still the guy in Baltimore.

6. Thomas Jones: His chances of playing more than 2 games are very slim, but I do think he’ll get those 2 games and will get his carries. And now that I don’t overlook him he’ll go for 10 yards and a loss.

7. Marion Barber: This is how shallow the running backs are this year.  I don’t love Marion Barber, well, he does have a nice smile, but the Cowboys have about as good a chance as most of the NFC teams and Barber is the goal line back.

8. Beanie Wells: I wish they didn’t start with the Packers, but like I said, anything can happen. If they move on they know what they need to do and Beanie will be a big part of that.

9. Cedric Benson: I don’t have much faith in the Bengals winning, and the Jets defense has been stout, so he has a shot at a razztastic game and also being done.

10. Pierre Thomas: This is a risky pick with his rib injury, but he will have time to rest it and like I said, there aren’t many starting RB’s worth their salt.  Not that PT is worth his salt, and it’s not like I have any idea what that means, but he’s on a good team and he should be the starter.

11. Brian Westbrook: He’s the starter again.  Not sure if that was the best idea, but it’s what is happening.

12. Felix Jones: He’s a home run kind of back and you have to get fairly lucky to win in playoff leagues.  A couple long runs from him can win a league for you.

13. Tim Hightower: He still sometimes vultures touchdowns from Beanie and even though his touches have gone down he is still getting work.

14. Darren Sproles: L.T. has kept Sproles from getting much work this season, but he is still a threat to go all the way at anytime and if you are in a league like Sporting News where return yardage counts he will give you some automatic points.

15. Sammy Morris: Who is the starter for New England? I’m giving Morris the nod, but my opinion, sadly, is irrelevant.

16. Donald Brown 17. Reggie Bush 18.Willis McGahee 19. Kevin Faulk 20. Shonn Greene 21. Chester Taylor 22. LeSean McCoy 23. Laurence Maroney 24. Mike Bell 25. Brandon Jackson 26. Leonard Weaver 27. Fred Taylor 28. Tashard Choice