Fantasy Football Advice

As you can tell, we have quarterbacks lower (or higher, which is it?) than other sites.  This is an age old tradition of the perts that we are upholding while others seem to be going away from. I’ve seen some perts say that since this has become a quarterback’s league they are worth more and you need to grab them earlier.  Hrmm?  With ten 4,000 yard passers last season there were plenty to go around in a 12 team, single QB league.  I’m not saying you should wait until Daunte Culpepper is the only QB left on the board, but you can wait.  With 2-3 RB’s and 3-4 WR’s needed in most leagues, grabbing a Rodgers/Manning/Brees in the first/second round is a waste.  Much will depend on your individual leagues and next season’s ADP, but 9 out of the top 10 point leaders last season were QB’s and that won’t change this year.  If you grab that ninth placed QB while getting a couple top 10 RB’s you will be sitting pretty and that’ll be true even if you ugly, u-g-l-y, you ain’t got no alibi, you ugly, eh hey, you ugly. Check out our top 20 behind this word.

21. Drew Brees: You probably won’t see Brees go this late, but I wouldn’t take him any earlier for the reasons above.  But he is probably a little more predictable than even Rodgers who is above him.  Much of Rodgers’ lead in fantasy points comes from his rushing TD’s which can vary, even though he keeps scoring them, the bastard.  The Saints offense can function with a bunch of no-names as long as Brees is at the helm.  Projection: 4500/36/14 — 30/2

22. Roddy White: Roddy finished as the 7th best fantasy wide receiver last season even though he was hurting toward the end.  We’ve got him as the 6th receiver this year, but I think he could move up a smidge.  Matt Ryan was injured and had a bit of a sophomore slump.  He should rebound well this year and give White plenty of opportunities. Projection: 90/1225/10

23: Vincent Jackson: I probably would have put VJax ahead of White and Moss if it wasn’t for his probable suspension for DUI’s.  It looks like it may just be one or two games which wouldn’t put a huge dent in his numbers.  And he should have plenty of numbers with the Chargers not having much of a running game and Rivers near the top of the awesome heap. Projection: 75/1250/9

24: Peyton Manning: He’s as solid as they get, but I doubt I’ll own him.  He will anchor your team, but so will a lot of QB’s you can grab later. Projection: 4300/33/13 — 15/1

25: Calvin Johnson: Last season Megatron had a down year due to injuries and inconsistent quarterbacking.  He is of course a bounce back candidate, but I doubt his ADP will drop too much because he is a magical creature from the land of Narnia.  I do think he got a little frustrated last season and didn’t play as well as he could so I’m not 100% sold he can return to top 5 form with a young Stafford, but I do believe he will return to top 10 form without much trouble. Projection: 75/1200/9

26: Brandon Marshall: He will probably be on another team soon which could move him up or down a little, but he is too good to drop no matter what team he is playing for.  He is a ppr beast, but much depends on the offense he ends up on.  Yeah, I know, I’ve said that already. Projection: 100/1175/9

27: Pierre Thomas: Reggie Bush and Mike Bell caused P.T. a lot of grief last season and there is no reason to think they won’t do the same again.  If Thomas stays healthy and takes some incriminating photos of Sean Payton, he may get the bulk of the goal line touches and move into second round value, but I just don’t trust Payton enough. Projection: 1050/7 — 40/325/2

28: Lesean McCoy: As things are, Shady is the main man in Philadelphia right now.  I have a feeling that the Eagles will look for a veteran like Tom Jones, but if that doesn’t happen he could be a steal, especially in ppr leagues. Projection: 1000/6 — 50/450/2

29. Fred Jackson: Finding a starting running back that you can depend on is tough this season and all the seasons before, but who cares about those.  Jackson held the starting position over Marshawn Lynch after he returned from his suspension and ran with it.  There has been talk of Lynch being traded, but it’s starting to look less and less likely.  If Jackson remains the man he is a great pick here, but we’ll have to keep an eye on Lynch; he may pull a gun on Fast Freddie, and talk about a dude who is u-g-l-y and Lynch sure didn’t have no alibi. Projection: 1100/6 — 45/375/1

30. Matt Schaub: Schaub was very good to all those fantasy players who had high expectations for him last season.  He went from injury risk to leading the NFL in passing yards.  I’m not going to factor in injury risk with quarterbacks.  They get hit and lose consciousness, them’s the breaks.  If he plays all 16 games, he will easily be worth a 3rd round pick.

I’m not going to give any long winded diatribes on the greatness or not-so-greatness of each player.  You’ll have to wait on that as we go through our 2010 redraft rankings.  I’m giving you dynasty rankings here.  Always, and I mean always draft J.R. first.

Those numbers after their names are how old they’ll be at the beginning of the season.  Age isn’t nearly as important with quarterbacks as it is running backs, so these rankings will be similar to the redraft rankings, except of course for the ageless one, Brett Favre.  He may play until he is fifty, but if you are starting a dynasty team, Favre just isn’t worth the risk.

Tier 1

1. Aaron Rodgers 26 — Young and just getting better.

2. Drew Brees 31 — Payton and his offense aren’t going anywhere, so Brees isn’t either.

3. Peyton Manning 34 — Getting older, but he’s not slowing down.

4. Philip Rivers 28 — I almost slid him ahead of Peyton.  It scared me.

5. Tom Brady 33 — The Pats are losing some of their shine, but Brady isn’t going to stop throwing.

Tier 2

6. Tony Romo 30 — Tony, Tony, Tony will keep moving up the charts.

7. Matt Schaub 29 — Proved his durability and has a good friend in A.J.

Tier 3

8. Jay Cutler 27 — Interceptions don’t count for a lot in most leagues.

9. Matt Ryan 25 — Should get back on track.

10. Donovan McNabb 33 — Old, but still putting up top ten numbers.

11. Ben Roethlisberger 28 — Keeps improving, but seems to enjoy getting hit often.  Could be addicted to pain killers (and sexual assault investigations).

Tier 4

12. Joe Flacco 25 — Bert’s twin just got his wish, Boldin and Mason.

13. Eli Manning 29 — He looks like he lives in his mom’s basement, but will continue to throw around 4k a year.

14. Alex Smith 26 — Crabtree and Davis should keep Smith from crapping the bed again.

Tier 5

15. Matthew Stafford 22 — Might take a little while, but Megatron will ease his growing pains.

16. Chad Henne 25 — Had some big games last season.  Needs Boldin, Marshall, etc.. to show up at camp.

17. Mark Sanchez 23 — He’s in a good situation to learn and grow and all that shizz.

18. Vince Young 27 — Showed up last season when the Titans needed him.

Tier 6

19. Carson Palmer 30 — He didn’t look right against the Jets.

20. Matt Leinart 27 — Fitz makes any QB better.

21. Matt Cassel 28 — He has to show up this season or he’ll be on his way to dud town.

22. Kyle Orton 27 — Forgetting Brandon Marshall will be tough.

Tier 7

23. Kevin Kolb 26 — He is next in line to lead some very good and young receivers in a throw first offense.

24. Brett Favre 40 — I think he’ll play.  Look for one more good season.

25. Josh Freeman 22 — Has the skills and that upside thing.

26. Matt Hasselbeck 34 — He’s fallen pretty far due to an aging team and aging body.  Hair = Strength.

27. Jason Campbell 28 — Gets one more shot.  Better hope Snyder buys a new offense for Shanny.

Tier 8

28. Matt Moore 26 — He should get a shot over Delhomme.

29. Michael Vick 30 — A lot depends on where he ends up, but he’s not accurate.

30. David Garrard 31 — I don’t think he’ll be the starter for much longer.  Not good for dynasties.

Tier 9

31. Brady Quinn 25 — The Browns are looking to dump him, but still has a slim chance to start.

32. Trent Edwards 26 — Will probably be the starter next season.  Yippee.

33. Seneca Wallace 30 — Stop gap, but probably a starting stop gap.

34. Tarvaris Jackson 27 — If Favre stays home.

35. Bruce Gradkowski 27 — Was much more productive than the production black hole that is Russell.

Tier 10

36. Charlie Whitehurst 28 — Could be competing for a starting position.

36. JaMarcus Russell 25 — Not good, but I suppose he could turn things around.

37. David Carr 31 — Should backup Smith.

38. Jake Delhomme 35 — Will compete with Wallace for Browns job.

updated — 3/13/10

There is no off season here at Razzball (except for that 48 hour bender right after the Super Bowl). We’ve already got ourselves a slow mock draft happening to kick off the beginning of the 2010-2011 season.  Yes, there will be a lot of changes as the so-called off season moves players around and brings in new, younger ones, but doing mocks is a great way to see how others value players and helps solidify where you value players.  Here are my co-conspirator mockaletes.

1. Matt Schauf – RapidDraft.com

2. Melissa Jacobs - TheFootballGirl.com

3. Melissa Greenhawt – GoGameFace.com

4. Chet Gresham – This Guy

5. Jim Day - FFWhiz.com

6. Charlie Tourtillotte — Tourinct

7. Mike Clay – FantasyDC.com

8. Steve Adler - FantasyDaddy.com

9. Paul M. Bourdett – BaseHeads.com

10. Drew Silva – Rotoworld.com

11. Bryan Fontaine – RookieBlitz.com

12. Knox Bardeen – Fanhouse.com

We’re still mocking each other so I’ll keep you updated on our progress.  My picks are in bold.  Here are the first three rounds for your amusement:

Round One

1. Maurice Jones Drew

2. Chris Johnson

3. Adrian Peterson

4. Ray Rice

5. Michael Turner

6. Andre Johnson

7. Frank Gore

8. Steven Jackson

9. Jamaal Charles

10. Matt Forte

11. Aaron Rodgers

12. Ryan Grant

– The first round had most of the usual suspects in it, but MJD at #1 was a little surprising. He’s in my 1st tier and I can see him being a #1 pick, but I’m a little worried about Garrard getting him to the goal line as much as he needs. Matt defends his pick here.

– I felt good about getting Ray Rice 4th.  If I had to choose a draft position it would be one of the top 4 or at the turn at 11/12.  I don’t think you can go wrong with any of the top 4 picks and if you get 4th you don’t have to decide!

– Drew went with Forte at #10 which is within the realm of where his ADP will be, but I will probably pass on him unless it’s a ppr league.  Martz likes to use his running backs in the passing game, a lot.

– Aaron Rodgers will be in the running for the #1 quarterback off the board, but after last year’s ten 4,ooo yard passers, I’ll be waiting on a quarterback.

– Since I’m pro Chris Johnson, getting him at #2 is good value, but no picks really stood out to me as steals.  I have Jamaal Charles ranked higher than he went, but that second tier is pretty fluid with Gore, A.J., SJax and Charles.

Round Two

13. Drew Brees

14. Larry Fitzgerald

15. Peyton Manning

16. Rashard Mendenhall

17. Calvin Johnson

18. Reggie Wayne

19. Pierre Thomas

20. DeAngelo Williams

21. Chris Wells

22. Philip Rivers

23. Tom Brady

24. Miles Austin

– The second round saw a big run on quarterbacks.  Once again I just can’t grab a QB with the first 2 picks.  It’s against my code of fake football ethics.  Running backs or wide receivers for me please.  My options at RB were dwindling fast, but I had a difficult time choosing between Beanie, Moreno and Benson.  But for my money, Beanie has the highest upside of the 3.  Whisenhunt won’t put as much of the game in Leinart’s hands, especially with a back as talented as Wells showing his worth toward the end of last season.

– I am a little worried about DeAngelo Williams after Jon Stewart went crazy after D. Willy went down toward the end of the season.  I could even see Stewart out playing him this year, but any way you look at it he isn’t guaranteed the bulk of the carries.

– The same could be true for Pierre Thomas, but I am a little more concerned about him staying healthy than being the primary back.

– I think one of the best picks of round 2 was by Matt who grabbed Miles Austin with the last pick.  I thought about snagging him, but just liked Wells too much.  Austin could easily be a top 3 wide receiver with a full season as the #1 WR in Dallas. Witten will be his only real rival for looks unless Jones gets an itchy finger and tries for a Boldin/Marshall trade.

Round Three

25. Randy Moss

26. Brandon Marshall

27. Ronnie Brown

28. Vincent Jackson

29. Greg Jennings

30. Roddy White

31. Matt Schaub

32. Tony Romo

33. DeSean Jackson

34. Steve Slaton

35. Knowshon Moreno

36. Marion Barber

– It’s interesting to see how far Randy Moss fell.  Even in a not great season he was a fantasy stud with his ability to get into the endzone, but he is also starting to show his age whileWelker could be gone for a big chunk of time which will get Moss a lot of attention if Edelman doesn’t go nuts.  I like Moss here, but I’m still trying to decide if I like him earlier as well.

– I felt good about Vincent Jackson in the third.  The Chargers will once again have to rely on the passing game and VJax should continue to improve.

– Brandon Marshall’s value is still up in the air since we aren’t sure where he’ll end up, but if he can have a big year with Orton, he has a shot of having a big year anywhere.

– I think both Slaton and Barber went too early as they don’t have the starting job wrapped up for next season.  I won’t own a Texan’s running back this season unless they trade for Purple Jesus or his like.  I also won’t own a Cowboy running back unless Felix Jones really slips.  Jones could get the most touches next season, but his injury history is worrisome.  I’ll pass.

– My favorite pick of round 3 is probably Knowshon Moreno.  The Broncos are a bit of a question mark with Josh McDaniels taking multiple power trips, but Moreno is their back and Buckhalter, though awesome last year, isn’t getting any younger and should continue to pop up on the injury report.  And Moreno will have a full off season and preseason compared to his holdout last year.

Who is that, who is that, who is that who is going to outscore the New Orleans Saints?  Nobody, that is who or whom or dat; I dunno.  In between commercials and The CSI Players, Drew Brees picked apart the Indianapolis Colts secondary while Peyton Manning did the same except for one errant throw that went the other way for a Saints touchdown.  And that was the game. Good night, or morning, or grief.

I was fairly confident Manning would gut it out, and when he didn’t my whole world view crumbled and I spiraled into a depression of Steven Wright proportions. Well, not really.  I was surprised though.  All the talk about Manning possibly being the greatest ever will have to be put on hold.  This game doesn’t mean he can’t work his way back into that conversation, but what this game really did was shoot Drew Brees right into the middle of that great quarterback debate.  His numbers are right up there with Kurt Warner’s and after winning a Super Bowl he is assured Hall of Fame talk unless he takes the Tiger Woods/Mark McGwire path to Grandma’s house (which is also the name of a brothel/HGH bar.

This game didn’t make any huge splashes fantasy-wise, but it’s hard to believe both teams won’t be scoring points next season.  Yes, the year after a team wins, loses, or chokes away a Super Bowl they have trouble not sucking, but Manning and Brees will keep their teams competitive at the very least.  Reggie Bush will be discussed a lot this off season.  He is getting paid way too much for the numbers he puts up.  He helps the team, but not enough when that money could go elsewhere. He could land with a team that might use him more, but that would be a mistake since he’s made of peanut brittle.  Pierre Thomas is the best back in New Orleans and will continue to get the bulk of the carries and if he can stay relatively healthy, will be the guy to own.  Of course Sean Payton could use Ron Dayne on the goal line.  Joseph Addai really showed something to his detractors this year and it will be hard for Donald Brown to supplant him, but if Brown stays healthy there is no way he doesn’t dip into Addai’s numbers enough to hurt his fantasy value.  Anthony Gonzalez can’t be happy with what developed at wide receiver while he was hurting.  Pierre Garcon really developed and has earned the right to be the #2 receiver.  And with Gonzalez out of the game for so long I don’t see him taking that job back very quickly.  Brees and Manning of course are atop the fantasy heap, but I doubt I’ll own either one once again next season.  Top QB’s are around later in the draft and I’ll take a RB or three please.

The game was good, but not classic.  We might be getting a little too used to games like the Patriots/Giants and Cardinals/Steelers.  Remember when Super Bowls had the suspense of a Ashton Kutcher movie plot line?  Yes, Joe Montana and Troy Aikman hook up in the end!

So this brings us to a close of the 2009-2010 NFL season, which means we are at the beginning of the 2010-2011 season!! Tonight we are hosting our first mock draft to kick off the breaking down and over-thinking of the season to come.  So stay tuned and remember, the NFL season is never over, it just gets slightly less violent.

Us Razzballians thought we would set the world aflame and do what nobody has ever done in the world of football blogging; make Super Bowl predictions!  Yes, I know we are stepping out on a decrepit, old, rotting bridge that could collapse at anytime, but if we make it across, we have crossed over into a world of unrealized opportunity and mystical oneness. Or, just a world full of maybe a little too much Peyton Manning man love.

Chet Gresham (that’s me, Doc):

When you stack the Colts and Saints up next to each other you get one big mass of football player flesh and on the outside it seems to come out fairly even.  Yes, the Saints have an advantage on special teams, the Colts have a slight receiver advantage, the running backs could swing low to the Saints’ side if Bush , the defenses have their own strengths that make them worthwhile, and so on and so forth, and even when you look at the head of each team, the quarterback, you see two very similar players statistically, but one is better than the other.  Often games like this come down to a big turnover (advantage Saints) or a big play (maybe advantage Saints), but in my mind this game comes down to Peyton Manning’s ability to perform under pressure, audible on the fly, and make quick and correct decisions.  I know saying Manning is the key is a simple answer to a complex game, but he’s the one that can hold the most complexity in himself and at the same time act instinctively based on that complexity. It truly is an amazing thing to witness.

The Saints aren’t the machine that the Colts are.  They play loose and force a lot of turnovers which is a great way to win games, but the Colts should be able to exploit a team with that kind of philosophy.  It’s a little like the Matrix, but the machines win.  Just think of Manning as Mr. Anderson or Peyton Manderson and the Saints as that wild orgy in one of the sequels that isn’t as good as the first one.

Indianapolis 40, New Orleans 27

Mark Geoffriau:

I really wish I believed the Saints could win on Sunday, but no matter what angle I take on this game, I have a hard time seeing the Colts losing. For all the excellence of both passing games, I think the critical factor for the Saints may be their ability (or inability) to run the ball against the Colts. If they can run with success, control the clock, and not fall prey to the temptation to trade deep TD throws with the Colts, there’s a chance for victory — but I’d still probably bet on Manning on the last drive. If the Colts continue their playoff defensive success against the run, then I don’t see how the Saints will be able to keep pace with the Indy offense. The Freeney injury definitely hurts the Colts defense, but they always seem to be able to adjust for personnel loss capably.

Indianapolis 37, New Orleans 27

Drew White:

I don’t know if you heard or not, but Dwight Freeney is injured. I can see how you’d miss it given that every network is talking about it 24/7. Overplayed stories are annoying, but this one is pretty significant; the most significant impacts will be subtle yet critically important. With Dwight Freeney out there at 100% you have to chip or double team him. That means there’s one less receiver sent on routes, drastically decreasing your route combination possibilities. A healthy Freeney hinders your ability to utilize the tight end or running backs in passing situations because those are the players who would stay in and help.

Even if Freeney plays he will be nowhere near 100%. The Saints should be able to contain him with one offensive lineman. The Colts defense doesn’t rely on turnovers. Rather, they employ the “bend don’t break” philosophy that the Patriots won multiple Super Bowls with. The Colts don’t do it nearly as well but that is counterbalanced by their better offense.

The Saints should be able to move the ball with relative ease and score points. The Colts are likely game planning them to take away the big play but this is easier said than done. Sean Payton will probably run the ball more than people expect and put together methodical drives in order to chew the clock; as dangerous as his offense is the Colts are even more explosive. I think the Saints will put up 24 points in this contest.

Now let’s look at things from Indy’s perspective. Defensively they have fewer options and will hope for missteps from the Saints in the way of failed 3^rd down conversions and turnovers. There’s no magic formula for stopping the Saints because it’s just not not possible. Dallas’s defense was legit and New Orleans completely picked them apart. The Colts will do their best to “keep everything in front of them,” tackle well, and pick spots to be aggressive.

I refuse to bet against Peyton Manning. A couple years ago the conversation revolved around how Peyton Manning “wasn’t clutch” and might not ever “win the big one.” I entered a contest in the New York Times to discuss this idea. My argument then was basically that this idea was completely ludicrous, that he would likely win multiple Super Bowls, and that at the end of his career he’d be considered the best quarterback in history. I am very anti-bandwagon and Peyton ended up making me look smart. My argument was a finalist but I didn’t win.

Defense and a great rushing attack do not win championships in the modern NFL. You know what wins? Superb quarterback play. It’s nice to have other useful things. No one is going to say that a team would rather not have strengths in other areas, but it’s simply not necessary.

In keeping with my argument, how can I not go with the greatest quarterback in NFL history? Although the Freeney thing hurts them I still think the Colts should still win this game. Peyton’s had two weeks to dissect their defense.

People are getting carried away talking about how “opportunistic” the Saints defense is and how they will blitz Peyton to “put pressure on him.” The Jets already tried that (guess what: they’re a lot better at it than the Saints are). How did that work out for them? Not well. Peyton, the master tactician, will recognize the vast majority of Gregg Williams’ blitz packages and exploit them mercilessly. Drew Brees is a great quarterback and one of my favorite players but he’s not Peyton.

Indianapolis 31, New Orleans 24