Fantasy Football Advice

I can’t speak to the job security of Mike Martz and the rest of the Chicago Bears coaching staff after this season, but I can speak for the results of Mr. Martz’s offensive scheme and that is a lot of yardage for quarterbacks and wide receivers and sometimes a Super Bowl, horrible seasons and bacterial heart infections.

Even before Martz became the de facto offensive coordinator for the Bears after nobody else wanted the job, Devin Aromashodu was starting to make sportswriter’s jobs more difficult by needing to spell his name correctly. Aroma, as in the smell and shodu, as in “you shodu smell.”  In the last 4 games of the season he had 39 targets, 22 receptions, 282 yards and 4 touchdowns.  In the previous 12 games he had a whopping 2 receptions, which mainly came about due to a quad injury and the play of Johnny Knox.

The Bears’ wide receivers were actually better than expected, which means they didn’t curl up in the fetal position after each snap.  Johnny Knox has the speed to be a huge deep threat, Earl Bennett had the tenacity to go over the middle and Hester had an all around good season, but was injured toward the end.  In Martz’s system Hester would fit in the slot well, which would give him more time to work on returning punts, and he says that he wants to cut down on some receiving duties if it can help him return to his punt returner dominance.  That’s weird, but good news for Aromashodu.  If Hester isn’t the #1 receiver, who is?

Just about any sized receiver can be the man in a Martz based system, but who usually becomes the man?  Roy Williams and Torry Holt? Yeah.  These aren’t Hester sized men.  When free slinging Jay Cutler got the 6′ 2″ Aromashodu in the offense, he went to him early and often.  I see Knox and Aromashodu lining up wide with Hester and Bennett in the slot.  Martz called Knox his “diamond” and this could even be a sleeper post for him, but Aromashodu has size and the confidence of his quarterback.  If he learns Martz’s system well, there is no limit to what he can do next season.

He may not be a “sleeper” by ADP standards come August, but I see him holding his value even if he is riding a big hype machine.  The Martz offense has room for multiple 1,000 yard receivers so you may even see a Johnny Knox sleeper post in the near future.  He could be more of your proto-typical sleeper, but he will also be a bit hit and miss.  I’m not ashamed to get on the Martz bandwagon.  Mike Furrey had over 1,000 yards with Jon Kitna throwing to him.  Kitna! Furrey!

Davone Bess-clearly the “Bess” receiver on the team, the man with the predator locks has emerged as a confident, productive receiver over the past few weeks.  Bess was fourth in the league last week with 14 targets and he has 25 over the past three weeks.  His monster game on Sunday during which he grabbed ten passes for 117 yards and a touchdown was clearly his most proficient game of the year, but Bess’ best may be yet to come.  He faces the abysmal Jaguars pass defense next weekend and could be a great flex play for those of you looking to gain a playoff berth.  He also faces the Titans and the Texans in the fantasy playoffs respectively.

Antonio Bryant-Bryant has come back strong from injury and he is showing why some drafted him in the middle of the pack.  Last week, he was 14^th in the league with 11 targets, catching five passes for 116 yards against Carolina.  This was an improvement on his performance against Atlanta in week 12 during which he caught three passes for 91 yards.  Bryant is a big-play guy and though I don’t like his matchup this week against the Jets, he draws Seattle and NO for the playoffs.  If he is available on waivers I would definitely go after him.

Michael Crabtree-though the former holdout has yet to have a breakout game, Crabtree has been nothing if not consistent.  Over his last four games he is averaging 4.5 catches and 60 yards per contest and last week against Seattle he grabbed six passes for 60 yards.  As the Niners’ #1 guy, Crabtree gets his share of targets and he had 13 last week, good for 6^th in the league.  Over the past three weeks, Crabtree has received 27 targets which puts him towards the top of all receivers.  Though Crabtree’s ceiling is low, if you are looking for a solid 8-12 points from your flex spot, he could be worth a look.  He also has Detroit in week 16.  It should be worth noting here that Josh Morgan has seen his targets skyrocket as well and he is fifth in RZ targets over the last three weeks (5).  Morgan could be worthy of consideration in deeper leagues.

Robert Meachem-I seem to keep coming back to him, and quite frankly, he continues to impress me.  I have owned Meachem for the last four weeks, electing to start him only once and I have regretted it.  The big knock on Meachem is his consistency, but over the last four weeks he has simply been a fantasy monster.  I think it is safe to say that he has surpassed Devery Henderson as Brees’ second favorite receiving target, and over the last three games, Meachem has commanded 19 targets, tying him with Colston for the team lead.  Meachem also gets a lot of attention in the RZ and his eight catch, 142 yard game made me a believer that he was more than just a guy who catches touchdowns.  Oh yeah, and Meachem scored yet again, bringing his touchdown total to eight, a team high.  I am definitely starting him this week against a piss porous Atlanta pass defense.

Louis Murphy-Murphy is getting a lot of hype this week due to his four catch, 128 yard and a touchdown performance last week, but I would be a reluctant to waste a waiver claim on him.  Over his last three games before last Sunday, Murphy had a total of three receptions for 51 yards.  Murphy has 18 targets over his last three games and though Gradkowski has provided a much needed spark to the Raider offense, I think the smarter waiver choice would be Meachem, Bryant, or Bess in that order.

Devin Thomas-Thomas was targeted eight times on Sunday and twice in the RZ.  Thomas made good on seven of those targets, garnering 100 yards and two touchdowns.  Like Murphy, Thomas has not been particularly productive aside from last week’s game, but he has been more of a consistent contributor to his team’s offense.  The Skin’s play Oakland, NYG, and Dallas in the coming weeks, which means that Thomas could have some value in the playoffs.  His 21 targets over the last three games should also raise some eyebrows and even if you can’t find a spot for him on your roster this year, he could be an intriguing option for next year in keeper leagues.

Devin Hester-over the past three weeks, Hester has all but vanished from fantasy relevancy.  This is largely due to his lack of targets as he has only 16 targets over the last three games, tying him with teammate Earl Bennett and putting him just two ahead of Johnny Knox.  Over that same span, Hester has only managed a total of five catches for 86 yards and zero touchdowns.  Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like things will get much better for Hester who draws Green Bay, Baltimore, and Minnesota over the next three weeks.

Pierre Garcon-once again, Garcon is on the list after another stellar performance against a tough Tennessee defense on Sunday during which he caught six passes for 136 yards.  More importantly, Garcon’s targets have been increasing steadily and over the last three games Garcon has surpassed Wayne in that category (27 to 24 respectively).  Though Wayne is clearly the man, Garcon deserves to be started weekly at a WR 2 or flex spot depending on the matchup.

Target Trends Over the Last Three Weeks

Potentially Available Players With Over 25 Targets and Their Rank in the League

7. Brandon Gibson (30)

10. Mohammed Massaquoi (29)

11. Donnie Avery (29)

17. Pierre Garcon (27)

17. Kenny Britt (27)

17. Michael Crabtree (27)

25. Davone Bess (25)

#1 Guys With Under 20 Targets and Their Rank in the League

40. Nate Burleson (20)

40. Housh (20)

45. Marques Colston (19)

47. Vincent Jackson (18)

47. Roy Williams (18)

57. Devin Hester (16)

71. Greg Jennings (14)

Top 5 RZ Targets

1. Brandon Marshall (12)

2. Andre Johnson (9)

3. Pierre Garcon (8)

4. Santana Moss (7)

5. Josh Morgan (6)

Brandon Gibson - Gibson was a guy on my list last week after receiving nine targets as a result of Burton’s season ending injury and now he is back on after receiving a monstrous 17 targets on Sunday.  Only Welker was targeted more often than Gibson though Welker did much more with his targets; he caught 15 passes for 192 yards compared to Gibson’s five catches for 61 yards.  However, despite Gibson’s touchdown drop which cost his team a chance at overtime, his sheer number of targets over the last two games has been staggering.  In fact, Gibson has amassed 26 targets over the past two games compared to teammate Donnie Avery who only has 14 targets in his last three.  Here is a short list of players who have fewer targets in the last three games than Gibson has had in his last two: Jennings, Sims-Walker, Driver, Burleson, Ochocinco, Boldin, Vincent Jackson, and Marques Colston.  On paper Gibson looks like filet mignon at the Golden Corral compared to his waiver wire friends, but before you get a half a Snickers bar in your pants remember that the one throwing him the rock is none other than…KYLE BOLLER! @#$%.

Mohammed Massaquoi - Vowel master Massaquoi is another repeat offender on the targets list after a four week hiatus.  Honestly, who would have thought the Brown eyes were capable of scoring 37 points?  Regardless, Massaquoi continued his trend of being the most heavily targeted Browns receiver on Sunday, receiving 12 targets, hauling in five for 115 yards and one touchdown.  It’s nice to see Massaquoi being productive, partly because I have owned him for the past five weeks, but also because he is clearly the most talented receiver on the beleaguered Browns offense.  I’d like to say that Quinn has found his niche and that niche is Massaquoi, but perhaps we should see how he handles the Bengals this weekend (who have given up the 7^th most passing yards this year) before making any Earth shattering, outrageous claims.  Either way, Massaquoi is worth picking up if you have room on your roster.

Earl Bennett – yet another widely available guy with promise going forward who has been on this list before.  Bennett was and always will be second to the target hogging Hester, as he received seven targets to Hester’s ten last week.  However, despite the fewer number of targets, Bennett faired better statistically, catching five passes for 57 yards compared to Hester’s four catches for 18 yards.  Bennett actually leads the Bears in yards per catch (12.8) and he continues to maintain some consistency in a Bears offense that has no choice but to throw the ball, though often to the opposing team.  Over the last four weeks, Bennett is averaging over four catches and 52 yards per game.  The only problem with Bennett is that he is allergic to peanuts and touchdowns.  Well I don’t know if he is allergic to peanuts but I’m pretty sure he is allergic to touchdowns since he has not scored one all year.  Bennett could be a viable option down the road as the Bears face the Vikings, Rams, Packers, Ravens, and Lions the rest of the regular season who are 25^th, 21^st, 7^th, 17^th, and 31^st in passing yards given up respectively.

Pierre Garcon - I’ll admit that a few weeks ago I compared Garcon to Collie and claimed that Collie was a bit safer to start, especially in PPR leagues.  However, Garcon has been dominating the targets and finished only one shy of Wayne last week with nine.  Garcon also had two red zone targets (as many as Wayne) while Collie only managed one target the entire game, turning it into an 18 yard catch.  Garcon finished the game with six catches for 108 yards and over the last four games Garcon is averaging four catches for 68 yards and has scored one touchdown.  Over that same span, Collie is averaging four receptions for 37 yards.  Over the last three weeks, Garcon ranks 12^th among receivers in total targets and has actually caught up to Wayne in that category; Garcon has 30 to Wayne’s 34 and has five red zone targets to his seven, respectively over the last three weeks.  For now, it seems that though Collie and Garcon have their place in the elite Colt offense, the French fireball currently has the hot hand.

Mario Manningham - Super Mario has reemerged over the past two games, recording 17 targets to the seemingly favored Nicks’ 13.  Last week Manningham led the team with 11 targets (Smith had 8, Nicks had 7).  Over the last two weeks, Manningham seems to have won back favor by hanging on to the ball and he is averaging six catches for 88 yards, the highest statistical average on the team (Smith 6/63, Nicks 4/52).  Manningham is still available in around 20% of all leagues and could play an important role in the Giants’ upcoming games against Dallas, Philadelphia, and Washington.

Jeremy Maclin - Maclin has been a target machine over the last three weeks, compiling 28 which are leaps and bounds above the likes of Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston, and Mike Sims-Walker.  He has also been productive with those targets, averaging five catches for 58 yards over the last two games and six receptions for 70 yards and a touchdown over the last two.  Though Jackson is clearly the big play guy, Maclin is surely getting his share of looks and with Westbrook out his value only increases.  Look for Maclin to continue to improve on his already daunting pace and he could be a good guy to pick up before the trade deadline as the Falcons, Giants, and Niners are amongst Philly’s remaining opponents.

Lance Long - though he had a rough day on Sunday, only managing three targets (the fewest amongst KC receivers), I believe he is still a good sleeper pick as he has been productive over the last three weeks.  Over that span, Long is 2^nd behind Bowe in targets (18) and is averaging four receptions for 43 yards.  It’s tough to tell who is going to get the ball in this offense but with Bowe out, look for either Chambers or Long to emerge.  Long has great promise and I even like him a bit more than Chambers in PPR leagues.

Useful Target Trends

1) Ravens receiver targets over the past three weeks

-Mason 34

-all other receivers combined 13

2) Bengals receiver targets over the past three weeks

-Ochocinco 23

-Coles 22

3) Calvin Johnson is 6^th in receiver targets over the last three weeks with 34

4) Davone Bess is 16^th in receiver targets over the last three weeks with 27

5) Notable players in the top 15 for red zone targets over the last three weeks

-Robert Meachem (4)

-Jeremy Maclin (4)

-Bernard Berrian (5)

-Josh Morgan (5)

-Pierre Garcon (5)

A  statistic I like to use when assessing wide receivers is targets.  If your players don’t have the opportunity the odds of them succeeding, are, well, not as good or to put it in terms nobody will understand, zeep zop zulu cranium.  We are only one week into the season, but these numbers can be helpful. I’ll give you the top 5 and then a few of the other ones that caught my eye farther down the line.

Wes Welker — 16 targets — Yeah, it’s Brady and Welker, this is no surprise.

Randy Moss — 16 targets — A little surprising that he tied Welker in targets. See Galloway near the bottom of this page.

Earl Bennett – 15 targets — Welker, Moss, Bennett?  All that talk of Cutler and Bennett being bff’s is looking to be correct.  If they weren’t playing one of the best secondaries in the league his numbers would have been much higher.

Reggie Wayne — 14 targets — AGonz going down accounts for some of this.  Look for Garcon to get a few more looks than the 5 he got on Sunday after a full week of practice at the #2 position. Could this be a Tonya Harding type thing?  Did anyone see Wayne around Gonzo’s pants with a bucket of scorpions?

Steve Smith – 14 targets — This might be why Jake threw 5 interceptions.  He’s always locked onto Smith which is nice for our fake football teams sometimes, but not last Sunday.  I wasn’t big on Smith going into the season, but as long as he keeps getting targeted his numbers will rise.

Nate Burleson — 11 targets — Housh had 9.  I would have expected this to be the other way around. I didn’t have him as an add yesterday, but I think that was probably an oversight.  So here is an undersight: pick him up. (more…)

Here are the results of the Inaugural Razzball Invitational Fantasy Football Experts Draft, IRIFFED for short. It is a 10 team, non ppr league. Pretty much the same as all your leagues unless you get all funky with slots for announcers and beer commercials. All the managers are bloggers and you can find some of them just to the right a little bit down in Mom’s Basement.

I never have a set strategy going into drafts besides trying see how many Goose Island IPA’s I can have before the draft is done. But I usually have some very basic goals in mind. I’ve said it before, but I am an old school RB/RB kind of drafter, but with the 10 slot that idea often is scrapped for some hot wide receiver action. I wasn’t overly pleased with this draft, but I think I can be a contender. Take a look see.

1. (10) Chris Johnson: I felt like he was the best RB left on the board. I really didn’t have anybody else I wanted here.

2. (11) Randy Moss: He’s my number one WR this year and I think he’s going to be mooning the world after a whole bunch of TD’s. It was between him and Frank Gore, but I was hoping my man Ronnie Brown was going to come back to me.

3. (30) Kevin Smith: Alas, no such luck with Ronnie. The RB pickins were slim and I wasn’t about to ride a nuclear warhead down onto Russia with my cowboy hat a wavin’ while waiting on a RB. So I picked Smith. I think he will be solid this year. I chose him over Pierre Thomas which may come back to haunt me if Bush goes down early.

4. (31) Wes Welker: Seems to be a theme here with Patriot receivers. This league runs with three wide receivers so I needed my second one quickly and I felt Wes was the best left, but I sure don’t care to put all my eggs in one Patriot basket, but I did.

5. (50) Marshawn Lynch: My first backup pick. I like stacking my RB’s since they go down so easily and Lynch is already down for the first three games. I felt like he had good value in the fifth round and really could be better than K. Smith, so he might end up being my starter.

6. (51) Aaron Rodgers: I like Rodgers a lot this year, but I always end up thinking I should have waited on a QB.

7. (70) Donald Driver: With my top 3 receivers I like to play it conservatively and go with consistency. Driver is the bran flakes of wide receivers.

8. (71) Larry Johnson: LJ is flying under the radar this year and probably for good reason. Haley’s new offense may not be the best fit for LJ, but the guy still seems to have his legs and he hasn’t been completely overused in his career. He still had 4.4 yards per carry last year. He could do something this year besides spit drinks at women.

9. (90) Kellen Winslow: I wanted Greg Olsen, but missed out. Winslow should get plenty of work in Tampa’s conservative offense.

10. (91) Kurt Warner: Just couldn’t pass up on the old man this late. I won’t be taking him with my first QB pick this year, but if he can stay healthy he may supplant Rodgers as my starter. I feel pretty good about my QB’s.

11. (110) Percy Harvin: My only rookie pick. Harvin is getting a lot of hype in training camp and I’m buying in. He is a rookie and could be over his head, but he’s got upside out the backside.

12. (111) Fred Jackson: A Lynch handcuff. He knows how that feels.

13. (130) Steve Smith (NYG): I’m gambling that Smith is the #1 over Hixon. I’m playing with house money at pick 130.

14. (131) Minnesota: Had to pick a D.

15. (150) Earl Bennett: Another wide receiver gamble. Cutler used to play grab ass with Bennett at Vanderbilt.

Check out some other riffs on IRIFFED! FantasyDC, Big Troph, and RookieBlitz.

EDIT: To view the entire draft results go here.