Fantasy Football Advice

Good morning, afternoon, evening, witching hour, etc… Here are some links to peruse while you engulf yourself in the madness that is March.  Thankfully April is the cruelest month, unless you are an Ohio fan.  And who isn’t, only Iowa can compete with all those vowels.  I will be off on vacation all next week so postings may be a little sparse, but we’ll get you some nuggets to chew on.  And don’t you just love chewy nuggets? I know I do.

Rotoworld’s Chris Wesseling takes a look at backfields to avoid next season.  I agree with much of what he’s written here.  Of course it’s always harder to stay away from them later in the draft, but if you can, do it.

If you are looking for some other great hubs for fantasy links take a look at The Daily Haze, The Fantasy Football Librarian, and Fantasy Rundown.  They’ll lead you in the right direction.

The Fifth Down takes a look at the proposed overtime rules.

Here are some Ben Roethlisberger pick up lines for your amusement.

NFL Fanhouse takes a look at the Cincinnati Bengals receivers for fantasy.

Fantasy Depth Chart projects the Minnesota Vikings fantasy players for next season. They’ve got other team projections as well.  Check them out.

Advanced NFL Stats gives us a new stat, Yeah!! called yards per target.  I like it and plan on using it in my fantasy deciphering.

Matt Bowen wonders if Derek Anderson is more than a backup plan in Arizona?

The Sporting News takes a look at some wayward NFL players who should find a home soon.

Speaking of The Sporting News, I was sad to see that they have stopped hosting fantasy games.  I played salary cap there for many years and really got to know and like the community.  I even won 10k on their salary cap game.  You can’t go back home again, as Thomas Wolfe told me when we were shooting rabbits off his porch, no the rabbits weren’t on the porch, we were.

We are one day closer to real NFL games!  I won’t tell you how many days that is because it is unbelievably depressing.  Thankfully there are interesting moves made every day (except Grossman going to the Redskins (not interesting).  Here are a few of the goings on in the NFL.

Ladainian Tomlinson: LT’s signing with the Jets sounds bad for Shonn Greene, but it’s not as bad as if Thomas Jones or someone not worn down to the nub, was backing him up.  I see LT taking the touches away from Leon Washington on third down.  He could also see some goal line work, but I don’t see him being as effective as Greene.  I may drop Greene down a spot, but I still think he’s a first rounder.

I believe this signing is more of an indictment of their confidence in Mark Sanchez’s ability to handle a larger load next season and the Jets not being sure Leon Washington will be ready to start the season.  I actually could see Washington taking carries away from LT as the season progresses.

Charlie Whitehurst: After all the hub bub about him possibly being traded I decided to grab him in my deep dynasty league.  Now that he just got paid 10 million for 2 years and is backing up old man Hasselbeck I am kinda happy I did that.  It’s really too early to think about him actually contributing for reals, but if you own Hass in a dynasty it would be worth picking him up.  With that kind of money and supposed potential, Matt might be on a short leash next season and just think if they wrangle Brandon Marshall.

Mike Bell: He should be an Eagle soon, which at first glance is bad news McCoy for, yeah, LeSean McCoy.  There has never been much doubt that Andy Reid didn’t trust McCoy in short yardage situations so for us fantasy footballers to think that McCoy is losing those carries is ludicrous.  He never had them.  But what McCoy does have is youth and the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.  Mike Bell and Leonard Weaver will be the brawn to McCoy’s scrappiness.

Derek Anderson: He has signed with the Cardinals which puts some doubt in the already extremely doubted Matt Leinart.  It looks like there will be competition for the quarterback position, but Leinart does have the most work in Whisenhunt’s offense and should hold an advantage over Anderson.

Rex Grossman: Faker.

The best wide receivers usually stay that way, thankfully, but us fantasy footballers have to roster quite a few wide receivers which means we have to grab value late.  I have our first 45 receivers up here today.  We’ll be adding even more, but this post was getting to be too tome-like.  And I teach the ADD riddled youth of America and know not to go on too long.

Tier 1

1. Andre Johnson 29 — The best receiver with the best situation.

2. Larry Fitzgerald 27 — He will make Leinart better.  He makes me better and I live on my couch.

3. Calvin Johnson 25 — Too young and talented not to rank high.  I think Stafford will pan out.

Tier 2

4. Vincent Jackson 27 — As long as he can keep from getting DUI’s, Rivers to Jackson will become annoying.

5. Reggie Wayne 31 — He’s rock steady.

6. Miles Austin 26 — I liked what I saw out of Austin last season and Romo continues to improve.

7. Brandon Marshall 26 — Not sure where he’ll end up, but he’s still young and very good and possibly a butt-head.

8. Roddy White 28 — He’s the main man in Atlanta.  Not much competition for catches.

Tier 3

9. Randy Moss 32 — He’s old, but has a few good years left.

10. DeSean Jackson 23 — He’s very young and very fast, but Maclin should steal from him.

11. Greg Jennings 27 — He’ll be living in Mr. Rodgers’ hood for years to come.

12. Marques Colston 27 — Great skills, but Brees spreads the ball around a little too much, bastard.

13. Santonio Holmes 26 — As long as Big Ben isn’t incarcerated he’ll be steady.

Tier 4

14. Michael Crabtree 23 –  He looked good even after couch sitting for part of the season.

15. Sidney Rice 24 — If his QB sitch was more stable he’d be higher.

16. Hakeem Nicks 22 – He looks poised to break out and continue to do so.

Tier 5

17. Steve Smith (CAR) 31 – How do I trust him? Dunno, but I know Moore does.

18. Wes Welker 29 – Too good too drop far because of his injury.

19. Steve Smith (NYG) 25 –This other Steve will go higher in ppr leagues.

20. Dwayne Bowe 26 – He has his troubles, but he is too good not to grab in the top 20.

21. Anquan Boldin 29 – Hard to put him this low, but he’s aging and been beat up.

Tier 6

22. Mike Sims-Walker 25 – He has the skill to thrill.

23. Percy Harvin 22 – His potential will be hard to live up to, but he has the potential to, uh, you know.

24. Chad Ochocinco 32 – Getting oldish, but he should continue to do what he do.

25. Pierre Garcon 24 – Looks like he Pipped Gonzalez.

26. Jeremy Maclin 22 – Young and on a pass first offense.

Tier 7

27. Robert Meachem 26 – Saints’ receivers are scary, but he showed his worth last season.

28. Kenny Britt 22 – He’s currently behind Gage and Washington, but not for long.

29. Eddie Royal 24 – McDaniels pulled a McDaniels on him, but he should turn it around.

30. Steve Breaston 27 – The #2 in Zona won’t be as productive as recent years, but he’s still good.

31. Devin Aromashodu 26 – His status next season isn’t a given, but I believe he’ll be the #1.

Tier 8

32. Braylon Edwards 27 – He is who he is.

33. Jerricho Cotchery 28 – More reliable than Edwards, but not as much upside (or the coinciding down side).

34. Hines Ward 34 – I love old, steady players in redrafts, but tough to foresee how long they’ll be around in dy-nastys.

35. Donald Driver 35 – Look up a centimeter.

Tier 9

36. Johnny Knox 23 – He will be the deep threat for Cutler and with Martz he should get his shots.

37. Mike Wallace 24 – He will be hit and miss with Ward in the picture, but his hits are usually TD’s.

38. Jacoby Jones 26 – Bringing Kevin Walter back hurts, but I think he’ll beat him out or up.

39. Malcolm Floyd 29 – He’s the #2 WR in a pass heavy offense.

Tier 10

40. Julian Edelman 24 – Tough to gauge his worth, but you know he’ll be good for the first half of next season.

41. Terrell Owens 36 – Depends on where he ends up, but he’s TOld.

42. Austin Collie 24 – If he’s in the slot and Peyton is throwing to him, well, you get it.

43. T.J. Houshmandzadeh 33 – Not even sure he should be this high, but Carroll’s offense will be pass happy.

44. Antonio Bryant 29 – I like him even if he is a freak.

45. Nate Burleson 29 – He should be happy to be across from Megatron.  Just hope he stays healthy.

I have a good time looking at stats during the season.  What team can’t stop running backs from carving them up like Freddy Krueger on a dream vacation? Or what wide receiver has been targeted 98.7 percent of the time in the red zone and will soon score 15 touchdowns a game?  But when it comes to quantifying fantasy draft statistics my brain shrinks like Beetlejuice’s in death’s waiting room.  So I thought I would get a head start this year.  I have theories that I feel are strong, such as, don’t grab a QB with the first 2-3 picks and don’t grab a D/ST or kicker until the last 2 rounds, and don’t draft Clinton Portis no matter how often you cross dress while wearing plastic pig noses.

So I thought I’d do some preliminary numbers crunching out here in the open.  All these numbers come from looking at a 12 team league/1 QB/2 RB/3 WR/1 Flex/1 K/1 D with 2009 ESPN scoring results. You can see the points that each position scored from 1-12, 13-24, and so on, depending on how many total possible starters.  And I’ve also added last year’s average draft position for the first 1-12, 13-24, and so on, for each position.

At first take it’s easy to see the need for drafting RB/WR early and often.  So much of draft analysis is based on ADP.  If everybody in your league were to take quarterbacks in the first round you would have to follow suit no matter how insane they are, but thankfully only a few people end up grabbing a QB instead of a top RB/WR.

These numbers are fairly expansive and don’t show the whole picture.  But I do believe these numbers can give you a basic overview of how drafts play out.  I plan on looking at ADP versus actual point production next.  I believe WR/QB will probably come closer to meeting ADP than running backs will, which might lead some to push the WR/QB method, but that’s kind of like telling your girlfriend that she can’t get pregnant if you consummate your lust in a pool or while reciting the alphabet.  Yeah, it might give you some instant gratification, but there’s a good chance you’ll be changing your team’s poo-filled diapers at some point in the season.

Quarterbacks: 12 Starters

1-12: 216–327, ADP: 11–80

Running Backs: 24-36 Starters

1-12: 177–329, ADP: 1–21

13-24: 136–166, ADP: 24-65

25-36: 103–132, ADP: 65-107

Wide Receivers: 36-48 Starters

1-12: 155–205, ADP: 8–38

13-24:121–150, ADP: 39–70

25-36: 97–120, ADP: 74–104

37-48: 80-95, ADP: 109–149

Tight Ends: 12-24 Starters

1-12: 91–168, ADP: 40–123

13-24: 44-90 ADP: 124–197

Free Agency has begun!  A lot of rumors were shot into the world yesterday, but not too many of them stuck.  I’ll take you through some of the juicier rumors and the stickier innuendo:

Jake Delhomme: He has been released by the Panthers due to suckiness, but also for money concerns which are boring.  Now that he’s on his way out I feel some regret for constantly mocking him, but he just wigged out and lost all his ability to distinguish his receivers from the other team’s cornerbacks.  With his experience there is no doubt he’ll find a team to give him shelter, but it would be amazing if he were to turn his career around at this point.

Matt Moore: Delhomme’s departure has left the quarterback position for Moore.  This is pretty good news for Steve Smith since Delhomme was having trouble getting him the ball.  Moore isn’t going to be a fantasy starter in the Panther’s run first offense, but he could move his way up into backup status.

Nate Burleson: Burleson has signed with the Detroit Lions.  This is very good news for our man Calvin Johnson.  If Burleson can stay healthy (a Rex Ryan sized if) he will take a lot of heat off Megatron and give Stafford three good targets in Pettigrew, Burls and Megatron.

Chad Pennington: It was looking good for Pennington to head back into the crowded Dolphin’s quarterback club, but he wants a no trade clause that the Dolphins don’t want to give him.  Chad Henne has the starting QB job, and they also like Tyler Thigpen and Pat White.  Pennington doesn’t feel like a necessity.

Chester Taylor: He is visiting Halas Hall today (that’s where the Bears hold their frozen rituals). This visit is very bad news for Forte owners. It doesn’t have to be 3rd down for running backs to catch passes in Mike Martz’s system, but since Forte’s value looks like it will be as a receiver next season, a back like Taylor who can catch the ball will really cut into his numbers.

Julius Peppers: The Bears were busy last night, especially Lovie Smith who showed up on Peppers doorstep at midnight and asked if he could sleep over.  I think they played Madden.  Peppers and Smith will form a singing duo and headline a show in Vegas over the summer.  With Peppers going to Chicago for a visit it’s looking like he’ll probably end up there.  Bears management is looking to save their jobs.

Brandon Marshall: Most of the news coming out about Marshall is that teams don’t want to mess with him.  He has the stink of petulance, a murder trial, and greed, all over him.  The rumor mill has the Seahawks as a suitor right now.  Pete Carroll could really use him now that Burleson is a Lion.

Thomas Jones: No concrete rumors have been circulating.  Can rumors be concrete? Adam Schefter believes the Browns will look hard at Jones which makes a lot of sense.  The Browns don’t believe Jerome Harrison can be an every down back (that must be why they gave him 100 carries in the last three games!).  It’s too early to get into Jones’ impact with the Browns since I have no clue who he’ll be playing for next season.

Darren Sproles: After deciding not to tender the scraptastic back slash kick returner, the Chargers took a gander at their depth chart and saw it peppered with scrubtastic backs, so they rethought and gave Sproles a 1st and 3rd round tender.  But there are rumors that they are willing to trade him for less than his tender.  I’m guessing because they don’t want to pay him 7 million dollars.

Kevin Walter: For some reason he is getting a lot of buzz.  He had a great chance to make some noise in the Texans pass heavy offense last season, especially after TE Owen Daniels went down, but instead he did a whole lot of jack squat.  The Ravens seem to be interested.  Sounds like a recipe for bluh.

Antonio Cromartie: The Jets traded a third rounder for Cromartie.  The guy is a little soft (take a look at his fake attempt at tackling Shonn Greene in the playoffs), but he does have cover skills.  Him and Revis will make the Jets defense even better.  They have to be the first D/ST off the board in drafts next season.

Derrick Mason: I couldn’t see the Ravens letting him go, but there have been rumors flying around that have him going to New England or Miami.  These could be rumors to help Mason get 2 years out of the Ravens.

Anquan Boldin: See above, but add the Ravens.

Aaron Kampman: The Bears were looking hard at Kampman, but harder at Peppers.  It’s now looking like the Seahawks are the front runners in the Kampman race.  His injury may make his signing a little further off, but he’ll help a team.