Fantasy Football Advice

As you can tell, we have quarterbacks lower (or higher, which is it?) than other sites.  This is an age old tradition of the perts that we are upholding while others seem to be going away from. I’ve seen some perts say that since this has become a quarterback’s league they are worth more and you need to grab them earlier.  Hrmm?  With ten 4,000 yard passers last season there were plenty to go around in a 12 team, single QB league.  I’m not saying you should wait until Daunte Culpepper is the only QB left on the board, but you can wait.  With 2-3 RB’s and 3-4 WR’s needed in most leagues, grabbing a Rodgers/Manning/Brees in the first/second round is a waste.  Much will depend on your individual leagues and next season’s ADP, but 9 out of the top 10 point leaders last season were QB’s and that won’t change this year.  If you grab that ninth placed QB while getting a couple top 10 RB’s you will be sitting pretty and that’ll be true even if you ugly, u-g-l-y, you ain’t got no alibi, you ugly, eh hey, you ugly. Check out our top 20 behind this word.

21. Drew Brees: You probably won’t see Brees go this late, but I wouldn’t take him any earlier for the reasons above.  But he is probably a little more predictable than even Rodgers who is above him.  Much of Rodgers’ lead in fantasy points comes from his rushing TD’s which can vary, even though he keeps scoring them, the bastard.  The Saints offense can function with a bunch of no-names as long as Brees is at the helm.  Projection: 4500/36/14 — 30/2

22. Roddy White: Roddy finished as the 7th best fantasy wide receiver last season even though he was hurting toward the end.  We’ve got him as the 6th receiver this year, but I think he could move up a smidge.  Matt Ryan was injured and had a bit of a sophomore slump.  He should rebound well this year and give White plenty of opportunities. Projection: 90/1225/10

23: Vincent Jackson: I probably would have put VJax ahead of White and Moss if it wasn’t for his probable suspension for DUI’s.  It looks like it may just be one or two games which wouldn’t put a huge dent in his numbers.  And he should have plenty of numbers with the Chargers not having much of a running game and Rivers near the top of the awesome heap. Projection: 75/1250/9

24: Peyton Manning: He’s as solid as they get, but I doubt I’ll own him.  He will anchor your team, but so will a lot of QB’s you can grab later. Projection: 4300/33/13 — 15/1

25: Calvin Johnson: Last season Megatron had a down year due to injuries and inconsistent quarterbacking.  He is of course a bounce back candidate, but I doubt his ADP will drop too much because he is a magical creature from the land of Narnia.  I do think he got a little frustrated last season and didn’t play as well as he could so I’m not 100% sold he can return to top 5 form with a young Stafford, but I do believe he will return to top 10 form without much trouble. Projection: 75/1200/9

26: Brandon Marshall: He will probably be on another team soon which could move him up or down a little, but he is too good to drop no matter what team he is playing for.  He is a ppr beast, but much depends on the offense he ends up on.  Yeah, I know, I’ve said that already. Projection: 100/1175/9

27: Pierre Thomas: Reggie Bush and Mike Bell caused P.T. a lot of grief last season and there is no reason to think they won’t do the same again.  If Thomas stays healthy and takes some incriminating photos of Sean Payton, he may get the bulk of the goal line touches and move into second round value, but I just don’t trust Payton enough. Projection: 1050/7 — 40/325/2

28: Lesean McCoy: As things are, Shady is the main man in Philadelphia right now.  I have a feeling that the Eagles will look for a veteran like Tom Jones, but if that doesn’t happen he could be a steal, especially in ppr leagues. Projection: 1000/6 — 50/450/2

29. Fred Jackson: Finding a starting running back that you can depend on is tough this season and all the seasons before, but who cares about those.  Jackson held the starting position over Marshawn Lynch after he returned from his suspension and ran with it.  There has been talk of Lynch being traded, but it’s starting to look less and less likely.  If Jackson remains the man he is a great pick here, but we’ll have to keep an eye on Lynch; he may pull a gun on Fast Freddie, and talk about a dude who is u-g-l-y and Lynch sure didn’t have no alibi. Projection: 1100/6 — 45/375/1

30. Matt Schaub: Schaub was very good to all those fantasy players who had high expectations for him last season.  He went from injury risk to leading the NFL in passing yards.  I’m not going to factor in injury risk with quarterbacks.  They get hit and lose consciousness, them’s the breaks.  If he plays all 16 games, he will easily be worth a 3rd round pick.

Running back is the most volatile position and in dynasty leagues that can be scary.  As soon as a back reaches 30 they are sent off in a space ship to Vorgon 7, so you must draft some youngsters and then some youngster back-ups and then some 15 year old prodigy types.  A trade or injury can make an ok running back into a top ten running back in short order and the other into a short order cook.

Tier 1

1. Chris Johnson 25 — You know what he can do.

2. Adrian Peterson 25 — Purple Jesus can still raise the dead (he just has trouble holding onto the ball).

3. Maurice Jones Drew 25 — He’s got a nose for the goal line.

4. Ray Rice 23 — I’m not too worried about McGahee and these are Dynasty rankings we are talking bout.

Tier 2

5. Jamaal Charles 23 — Probably deserves Tier 1 status, but needs to perform for a whole year.

6. Rashard Mendenhall 23 — Young and the #1 on a good team.

7. Shonn Greene 25 — With Jones gone he could rush Rex Ryan’s weight in a single game.

8. Frank Gore 27 — Steady and versatile, but aging and injury prone.

9. Beanie Wells 22 — Hightower will be eating his dust.

10. Steven Jackson 27 — Will put up good numbers, but his team is an albatross around his neck.

Tier 3

11. Jonathan Stewart 23 — His age and ability trump his RBBC lot in life.

12. Michael Turner 28 — He can put up TD’s with the best of them.

13. Knowshon Moreno 23 — Didn’t overwhelm in his rookie season, but his situation is ripe for success.

14. DeAngelo Williams 27 –  He’s too good to knock down far even though he’s older than his RBBC pal.

Tier 4

15. Ryan Grant 27 — On a great offense.  Steady production.

16. Donald Brown 23 — RBBC for now, but youth always wins out.

17. Cedric Benson 27 — Bengals have become run first.

18. Pierre Thomas 25 — Just hope Payton gives him some goal line work.

19. Matt Forte 24 — Chester Taylor hurts him, but thankfully Taylor will be 31 this season.

20. Felix Jones 23 — Worried about his health, but see him getting the most numbers in cow town.

Tier 5

21. LeSean McCoy 22 — He’ll move up the ranks if the Eagles don’t grab a veteran.

22. Joseph Addai 27 — Has some productive committee years left.

23. Ahmad Bradshaw 24 — Jacobs and he were both injured, but he outplayed him.

24. Ronnie Brown 28 — He could slip further depending on how his injury looks, but he is an elite talent.

25. Justin Forsett 24 — Showed he was the best RB on the Seahawks last season.  If they don’t grab anyone else, he’ll be golden.

Tier 6

26. Brandon Jacobs 28 — I’m not a fan, but if he’s healthy he can get in the endzone.

27. Marshawn Lynch 24 — His age and past production make him hard to pass on.

28. Jerome Harrison 27 — I wanted to put him higher, but he’ll probably be in a committee.

29. Fred Jackson 29 — There’s a good chance he’ll get the bulk of the carries this season, but he is old (which makes me ancient).

Tier 7

30. Reggie Bush 25 — Reggie Bush type.

31. Darren Sproles 27 — Reggie Bush type, but older.

32. Darren McFadden 23 — Lots of talent, but is on a bad team and might be a Reggie Bush type.

33. Kevin Smith 23 — His injuries and inability to run well are worrisome, but he has time for redemption.

34. Marion Barber 27 — Most Barbarians have short life spans.

Tier 8

35. Michael Bush 26 — Could end up being the starter on a bad team.

36. Thomas Jones 32 — Doesn’t get hurt so should have a year or two left.  Depends on the team he winds up on.

37. Laurence Maroney 25 — Had a great stretch last season.  Still young.

38. Tashard Choice 25 — Barber is declining.  Jones is injury prone.

39. Chester Taylor 31 — Role is undefined now in Chicago, but he could do some things in a Martz offense.

40. Steve Slaton 24 — Had a great rookie season.  Has skills.  Benched. Is hurt. Flier.

Tier 9

41. Leon Washington 28 — Looks like he’ll be ready to go all season in a run first offense.

42. Tim Hightower 24 — Still young, but will be a Beanie back-up.

43. LenDale White 25 — A bit risky, but anywhere other than behind CJ will help him.

44. Willis McGahee 28 — Staying in Baltimore will hurt his value.

45. Ricky Williams 33 — Should get you one more productive year.

46. Carnell Williams 28 — Lasted all last season.  Probably won’t this season.

47. Arian Foster 24 — He showed some awesomeness, but the Texans are looking at RB’s in the draft.

Tier 10

48. James Davis 24 — Young and will compete with Jerome Harrison for the starting job.

49. Bernard Scott 26 — If Benson goes down he would easily take up the slack.

50. Lex Hilliard 26 — Ricky is old. Ronnie is oldish/injuryish.

51. Jerious Norwood 27 — Turner has had a lot of carries.  Norwood should be healthy.

52. Larry Johnson 30 — I don’t like him, but he could start for the Native Americans.

53. LaDainian Tomlinson 31 — Should hook up with a new team.  A lot depends on that team.

54. Glen Coffee 23 — Gore is injury prone.

55. Rashad Jennings 25 — Just has MJD blocking him.

56. Derrick Ward 30 — Will be in the mix, but the recipe is bland.

57. Maurice Morris 30 — Might, might, be a starter if the Lions are dumb.

58. Correl Buckhalter 31 — Should still be the #2 in the mountains, but old.

Tier 11

59. Tyrell Sutton 23 — A good change of pace back that could flourish with an opportunity.

60. Mike Goodson 23 — See above.

61. Mike Bell 27 — Should find a team and his value will depend on that team

62. Chris Jennings 24 — Slim chance to get into the mix after Harrison and Davis.

63. Jason Snelling 26 — Norwood was hurt much of last season so Snelly got the work.

64. Larod Stephens-Howling 23 — Has the ability to be a Reggie Bush type.

65. Javon Ringer 23 — Would probably pick up the reps if CJ goes down as long as White is gone.

66. Brian Westbrook 31 — If he hooks up with the right team and looks healthy I could see moving him up a little, but I’m not taking him.

updated 3/13/10

Before jumping into an analysis of the Lions’ #2 pick, it’s worth noting that as we make our way through the first round of the draft, we’ll get better and more reliable information closer to the draft date. Each team’s report should be considered in terms of when it was written and the information available at that point — and of course, as more information is revealed, we’ll do our best to update or append the earlier reports.

The reason this is on my mind is that just a few days ago when Doc wrote the draft report on the Rams, the best and most reliable NFL sources were saying that while St. Louis might be tempted by Bradford or Clausen, they were likely to still take Suh or Gerald McCoy as they were considered the best overall players available. On Thursday, however, ESPN’s Adam Schefter told a St. Louis radio station that he considers it a lock that the Rams will take Sam Bradford #1 overall. It’s still pretty early, so things can change, but Schefter has been an excellent source and not one to spread unfounded rumors.

Now, this might not seem like it would change the Lions’ draft plan, but I think it’s important for one reason — if the Lions consider either Suh or McCoy to be vastly superior, and the Rams had taken the DT the Lions coveted most, Detroit may have been tempted to trade down. If the Rams really are set on taking Bradford, then the Lions are free to take whichever DT they want most…or, if they consider them essentially equal, they may try to swap picks with the Bucs (at #3) and pick up an extra late round draft pick in the process.

As we saw last year, Matt Stafford, when healthy (and occasionally not), is capable of running the offense. Too often, though, they couldn’t keep pace with opposing teams because of the defense. As with most of the defenses at the bottom of the team defense rankings, there aren’t a lot of positions that couldn’t use an upgrade, but a dominant defensive lineman like Suh or McCoy can immediately make things easier on the linebackers and secondary.

If the Lions do take a defensive player in the 1st round, clearly there won’t be a huge fantasy impact. The biggest fantasy consequence of an improved defense may be more opportunities for the offensive unit, assuming the defense is more successful in getting off the field. Of course, with the number of easy touchdowns the defense gave up last year, anything other than a dramatic improvement may actually result in more prolonged drives for opposing offenses instead of quick-strike big plays. More important for fantasy purposes will be a healthy and more experienced Matt Stafford, and the opportunity to bolster the running back corps through free agency and the later rounds of the draft.

As expected Ladainian Tomlinson was released by the Chargers.  The fantasy Gods are pouring out a forty for the old man as we speak.  Money rules and running backs thirty and over drool, and will soon be on Dancing With The Stars or hawking hair dye or male enhancement pills.  L.T. is probably the best fantasy running back of all time, but I’m sure we get to watch him decline some more on another team like so many great running backs before him.  I remember watching Franco Harris in an ugly Seahawks uniform lumbering around.  That was sad.

Now L.T. wants a Super Bowl, so he’ll be looking to go to a team with a chance of going all the way.  But he will have to take a pay cut and a role cut.  If he is ok to just be a third down option, he should be able to hook up with a team eventually, but I don’t see him being much of a fantasy contributor because he is old and averaged 3.3 yards last season.

Tim Tebow: He looks just like a guy I went to grad school with, who was a drug addict and wannabe Johnny Cash poet.  We’ll call him Dave (which is actually his name).  He tried changing.  He decided that coke was just not helping him in his career goals.  Tim Tebow decided something similar.  He had been relying on bad throwing mechanics, but realized they also were not helping him reach his career goals, so he is going to try changing.  I saw Dave the last time I went back home.  He didn’t look too good.

Thomas Jones: Word is, if Leon Washington’s rehab is going well and it looks like he’ll be able to start week 1, Tom Jones might be on the road like Tom Joad.  This is huge news if true.  Shonn Greene would become a 1st round fantasy player with Jones out.  It’s all speculation at this point, but that’s some of the best kind of ulation.

Laurent Robinson: For the first couple games of last season Robinson was easily the Rams best receiver, but he then fractured his fibula ending his season.  Robinson will be back and ready for the off season program, but will now need to battle Brandon Gibson who flashed some talent after Robinson went down.  I like these Rams receivers.  If they can somehow get a QB they could be fantasy worthy.  But that’s a Wilfork sized if.

Brian Westbrook: It’s looking more and more likely that Westy will be released by the Eagles.  He is 31, often injured, concussed twice last season and due over 7 million next year.  I doubt he’ll hook up with a new team unless he really wants to take a pay cut and fight for a job.  This may be the end for yet another great fantasy running back.  I used to hate running backs who held out and wanted to add to their millions, but no longer.  They have a very short shelf life and now that the NFL is a QB centered league, they need to get paid when they can.

I can’t speak to the job security of Mike Martz and the rest of the Chicago Bears coaching staff after this season, but I can speak for the results of Mr. Martz’s offensive scheme and that is a lot of yardage for quarterbacks and wide receivers and sometimes a Super Bowl, horrible seasons and bacterial heart infections.

Even before Martz became the de facto offensive coordinator for the Bears after nobody else wanted the job, Devin Aromashodu was starting to make sportswriter’s jobs more difficult by needing to spell his name correctly. Aroma, as in the smell and shodu, as in “you shodu smell.”  In the last 4 games of the season he had 39 targets, 22 receptions, 282 yards and 4 touchdowns.  In the previous 12 games he had a whopping 2 receptions, which mainly came about due to a quad injury and the play of Johnny Knox.

The Bears’ wide receivers were actually better than expected, which means they didn’t curl up in the fetal position after each snap.  Johnny Knox has the speed to be a huge deep threat, Earl Bennett had the tenacity to go over the middle and Hester had an all around good season, but was injured toward the end.  In Martz’s system Hester would fit in the slot well, which would give him more time to work on returning punts, and he says that he wants to cut down on some receiving duties if it can help him return to his punt returner dominance.  That’s weird, but good news for Aromashodu.  If Hester isn’t the #1 receiver, who is?

Just about any sized receiver can be the man in a Martz based system, but who usually becomes the man?  Roy Williams and Torry Holt? Yeah.  These aren’t Hester sized men.  When free slinging Jay Cutler got the 6′ 2″ Aromashodu in the offense, he went to him early and often.  I see Knox and Aromashodu lining up wide with Hester and Bennett in the slot.  Martz called Knox his “diamond” and this could even be a sleeper post for him, but Aromashodu has size and the confidence of his quarterback.  If he learns Martz’s system well, there is no limit to what he can do next season.

He may not be a “sleeper” by ADP standards come August, but I see him holding his value even if he is riding a big hype machine.  The Martz offense has room for multiple 1,000 yard receivers so you may even see a Johnny Knox sleeper post in the near future.  He could be more of your proto-typical sleeper, but he will also be a bit hit and miss.  I’m not ashamed to get on the Martz bandwagon.  Mike Furrey had over 1,000 yards with Jon Kitna throwing to him.  Kitna! Furrey!