AFC-WEST

So wait… You mean to tell me that we’re only a few weeks away from real, live concussion filled NFL action? Where did the time go? Anyway, for those of you not familiar with my work, which would include everyone not in my immediate family, I’m Mike Honcho and I’m usually pontificating on baseball this time of the year. However, it’s hard to say no to the persuasive ways of Unbreakable MB and Jay Wrong. They’re like the Razzball version of “Brazilian security guards” at a gas station at 6 A.M. – You just can’t say no! So here I am, ready to tell you how the AFC West will unfold in 2016. How will Denver cope without America’s favorite “Non-PED using” quarterback? Can Derek Carr take the next step and lead the Raiders to the postseason? Did Andy Reid serve his 15 hours of community service for habitual clock-management violations? Finally, can Phillip Rivers generate enough excitement for the dozens of Chargers fans in San Diego? Theses questions and more (well, not much more) will be answered below. I’ll list the teams in order of predicted finish and give you a few helpful nuggets to help you navigate the choppy waters of fantasy draft season. Join me, won’t you?

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Good afternoon, ladies and gents, convicts and inmates, and all you sassy little pervs in between. It’s me, your gorgeous and ever so present Fantasy Football Goddess, here for your reading pleasure. How have you all been since my valiant return last week? I would expect your lives to once again have meaning and (for a majority of you) to have rekindled your passionate love for me. It’s understandable. I am one in a million. Quite a few of you seem to have remembered how awesome I am as per your comments section from last week’s article, and I thank you for all of the love. The season is crawling closer and, as promised, I am back to give you some more things to think about (other than picturing me in compromising positions). Are you as excited as I am? I doubt that. There is nothing I enjoy more than whipping men, in fantasy football, that is. But enough about me and what I enjoy doing in my spare time. Let’s cut the foreplay, turn those lights back down, bust out the “Cosby Cocktails” with a little extra sump’in, sump’in in them, and get down to business. Ask and ye shall receive, and what’s better than receiving, right? Here you go my loyal horde. Hit it or Quit it, Preseason Edition, Vol. 2.

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Well hello again, all of my lovelies!  Did you miss me?  I am sorry that I had to abandon you halfway through your abysmal, injury-plagued seasons last year, but it seems that my work as a Fantasy Royalty called me away for many an Ambassador duties.  Not really, I was basically traveling the globe and the deepest, darkest reaches of the planet to find some kind of Medicine Man or Voodoo Priestess to lift this Black Widow Curse from me, to no avail.  But, I digress.  How are you all holding up?  I know you missed me, it’s okay, you don’t have to admit it (I can read your thoughts.)  So, anyhoo, here we are again.  The 2016 NFL season is closer than that stalker who is STILL living in my bushes outside (I need to start charging that creeper rent).  I promise you, I won’t leave you again this season, as long as you stick with me.  So, to rekindle all the love we shared and the memories we’ve made over the years, let’s spend a little time together today, get to know one another again, turn the lights down low, and turn on the Fantasy lovin’ with this little preseason edition of Hit it or Quit it…

Please, blog, may I have some more?

2016 Rankings: Top-200 (Standard)| Top-200 (Half-PPR) | Top-200 (PPR) | QBRB (Standard) | RB (Half-PPR)RB (PPR) | WR (Standard) | WR (Half-PPR)WR (PPR) |TE (Standard) | TE (Half-PPR)TE (PPR) | K | DST

Dynasty Rankings: Top-150 | RB | WR | TE | K | DST | Top-50 Rookies

Year Accuracy Rank High Low Percentile
2015 57.5% 22 out of 123 59.9% 51.6% Top 20%
2014 58.1% 31 out of 125 60.7% 50.6% Top 25%

So we’ve finally arrived at what many consider the Cadillac of rankings– the running back position. Though, I don’t really get the car association, seeing as how there are several other makes I’d rather own. I’d even consider some Kia’s, but that might be my half-Koreaness (is that a thing?) coming into play. Which might make it racist. Or carcist. Which sounds like something a dermatologist should be handling. Who knows for sure? I mean, besides a dermatologist. What I do know is that Kia stands for Keeping it awesome, and that’s all that matters in life. Because you should, in fact, keep it awesome. How the car company has gone so long without using this in their P.R. campaign boggles the mind. Regardless, here we are, ranking the running backs, and the first thing that I think of is a new and innovative marketing strategy for a car manufacturer. Why this is the first thing that came to mind is the more interesting subject, but I have no idea how to tackle it. So this whole thing will have to stand on it’s own merits. So yeah! (I have no clue either.) Rankings forward!

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Is there still such a thing as an ACL injury after effect?  Adrian Peterson famously rushed for over 2000 yards the year following a December ACL tear.  Jeremy Maclin turned out to be a 2014 draft day bargain after suffering an ACL tear in the 2013 preseason.  Rob Gronkowski also went undervalued in 2014 drafts after coming off an ACL injury.  Now Todd Gurley is meeting or exceeding his expectations.  The fact is that risk is always built into the value of post ACL tear players, but they have a pretty good recent track record.  I literally can’t think of a single player that failed to come back from an ACL tear in the last few years.  Recently the upside has outweighed the draft cost of buying a player coming off an ACL injury.

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So obviously the big news from this past weekend is the loss of Jamaal Charles for the rest of the season. The Chiefs running back suffered a torn ACL in his knee and is done for the season. But now, the presumed handcuff before the beginning of the season, Knile Davis, only saw two carries after Charles went down. It had been reported weeks ago that Charcandrick West had passed him on the depth chart, and it appeared so as he received 12 carries after Charles’ departure. West appears to be the new starting running back in Kansas City and needs to be immediately owned in all leagues. Knile Davis will also get touches, but not nearly as much as West. Davis should be owned in all 12 team leagues and above as anything could happen and both could be in a time share or if one underperformed, the other could excel. Also keep an eye on a running back signing from the Chiefs in the next day or so. They tried out both Ben Tate and Pierre Thomas on Monday and Thomas could be an interesting prospect as his pass catching ability could get him a decent role.

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There’s a gonna be some prospecting come waiver wire day this week. The allure of gold drove many in the 1800’s to pack up their wagons and head west for the chance to strike it rich. The 2015 fantasy season has uncovered a fresh mine due to the Jamaal Charles injury. Once highly thought of handcuff, Kniles Davis, has been usurped on the depth chart and relegated to the fantasy scrap heap in most leagues. The astute among us (not me), that noticed that Charcandrick West became the backup to Charles in Week 4 need to be commended. Bravo. Hurrah. Kudos. You are probably all Charles owners, but if you are not, then you are my hero. Hopefully you picked him up because there’s a gonna be some serious bidding for his services.

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Well, I guess someone forgot to remind us that Jamaal Charles bi-annual end-of-season injury was due. Looking to go up 24-3 in the third quarter against the Bears, the Chiefs drove into the red zone, and on a seemingly normal (and patented Andy Reid run-up-the-middle with one of the best outside-the-number runners in football) play, Charles twisted his knee moving left to right (as shown above). And that’s the moment the Chiefs season ended. Based off of initial tests, it appears that Charles has suffered a torn RCL in his right knee. And if that wasn’t enough, the Bears were able to mount a comeback and win the game 18-17. If I didn’t know any better, I would say this was probably the Chiefs at their most Chiefiest moment. While many would look to Knile Davis to try and fill in for what was essentially 90% of Kansas City’s offense, Charcandrick (his stripper name, I’m sure) West will look to be Alex Smith’s new check-down artist. Yes, starting 1-4 is pretty bad. And losing your star player who handles the bulk of your offense is devastating. But hey, it could be worse… you could be the Detroit Lions…

Here’s what else I saw this past Sunday in Week 5:

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FINALLY!!! The defense has come to The Stats Machine! For the past many weeks I have been promising an updated algorithm in which opposing the defense is accounted for. Today I deliver on that promise. The premise is simple. All offensive performances will be weighted based on the ranking of the defense against which they posted said performance. Defenses have been ranked by the following four categories. Passing yards allowed vs QB. Rushing yards allowed vs RB. Receiving yards allowed vs WR. And receiving yards allowed vs TE. If one team allowed jus a few yards less than the next, but has given up several more touchdowns to a give position, I have swapped them in the rankings. With that preamble out of the way, let’s get to it.

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Just one more week until the defense makes an impact on The Stats Machine. With four weeks in the books, I believe that will be enough statistics to make sense of the defensive landscape. In the mean time, let’s power up the old version of The Stats Machine one last time as see what that soon to be deprecated software has got to say about last week. Will it recognize Aaron Rodgers’ five touchdown effort? How about Devonta Freeman’s huge game against the Cowboys? Who does TSM think had a better week, A.J. Green or Julio Jones? Those of you that have noticed that the title was not “Jones Means Go” are one step ahead of the game. And sometimes that’s all that matters. One step.

Please, blog, may I have some more?