Fantasy Football Advice

So you have a quarterback, right? I’m going to go out on a limb and say you do.  It is time to start looking into our statistical crystal ball and see what our QB’s matchups look like for the rest of the year.  This is an inexact science, but it is worth exploring.  All teams have at least 4 games under their collective belts.  In my opinion this is right on the edge of enough data to understand how a defense will play the rest of the year.  Will Tennessee turn things around? Will key players get injured? Can the Browns finish 10th overall in pass defense? Will Rod Woodson and Deion Sanders make comebacks and play for the Lions? Will Peyton Manning turn into Peyton Headroom and be sucked into a digitized world of commercials? These are all extremely plausible.  But we have to go from the information we have right now.    I’ve taken the info I gathered from my previous post on passing defenses (get hyper with the link or just scroll down a bit) and used it to determine an overall ranking for each quarterback’s remaining schedule and playoff schedule (weeks 15 and 16).

So here we go! We’ll go from easiest to hardest and I’ll skip over the JaMarcus Russels and Derek Andersons of the world (talent sure has!). (more…)

Everyone has their favorite Mario Brothers level. It is a tough call but I have to go with the water level on the original game. My cousin and I used to play it all the way to the end then die on purpose so that we could just play it over and over.

There are a lot of things I like about Fantasy Football. I think I am in love with the bye week the most, however.

Any time you add more factors into the mix “cageyness” becomes increasingly important and the effect of luck diminishes.

“Cageyness” is a term my friend the Eradicator and I talk about constantly. It is a combination of knowledge, tactics, and the “little things” people pick up over the course of time with experience.

Bye weeks are like Tequila; both are catalysts for ill-considered decisions with potentially long term consequences. The most common and devastating blunder is making a bad trade to shore yourself up when one of your starters is off on a bye week.

Last week I almost made a stupid trade because I had Fitzgerald out on the bye. Luckily I consulted some trusted advisors who set me straight and I avoided self-inflicted disaster and instead made a much better trade.

I highly recommend bouncing trades off people you trust before pulling the trigger on anything. This has saved me on several occasions from making bad deals.

A great bye week strategy is to look at your opponents rosters each week and see if the bye week is leaving them thing somewhere. This is a great situation to take advantage of someone, especially if they are down in the standings or facing a particularly tough match up. (more…)

I don’t love or hate Brett Favre.  I am glad he is around so I can add words and phrases like osteoporosis, One A Day Men’s 50+ Advantage, Extenze, etc to my posts, but watching him throw that game winner to Greg Lewis was just awesome.  Will he put up more games like that? Probably.  Enough of them to help you win your league?  Probably not.  But that made me remember why I loved football and some more sappy crap like that.  Here are some other thoughts from Sunday’s games:

Kevin Smith: He ran for 100 yards, won his first game as a Lion and hurt his shoulder. Not sure how bad it is, but he was seen trying on one of Megatron’s replacement arms.

Frank Gore: He could be sidelined for a week or two with a high ankle sprain.  If Coffee is available pour yourself a cup.  And you should have listened to this dude, he’s wicked smaht.

Knowshon Moreno: He had a nice game against the Raiders and ran for his first TD, but he was actually outplayed by Correll Buckhalter.  Bucky isn’t going anywhere as long he keeps running well, but with Hillis getting banged up and Jordan being absolutely the opposite of Jordanesque, Moreno should start to get the majority of the goalline carries. (more…)

To illustrate my point, we’ve heard nothing about Iglesias.  Then the other day, a paper suggest that Know could see more playing time than Iglesias.  That has to worry you a little bit.   It doesn’t mean with training camp, he won’t be ready, but you have to wonder about that.

The 2009 offseason has had its share of big moves, but what do those moves mean to fantasy owners in 2009? Are we getting Randy Moss to Oakland, or Randy Moss to New England? While most marquee trades and free agent signings are hyped by team media personnel as an “excellent addition” or “a perfect fit”, they don’t always end up as successful transactions. Here we play Buy or Sell on the biggest moves of the 2009 fantasy football offseason:

Buy

T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Bengals to Seahawks) – Housh had nearly 1,000 yards receiving last season with the unproven and unimpressive Ryan Fitzpatrick as his QB. In Seattle, if Hasselback is healthy, Housh becomes the immediate #1 target for the more than capable Seahawks signal caller. 1,000+ yards and 6+ TDs should be the floor for T.J. “Who’s Your Mama”.

Tony Gonzalez (Chiefs to Falcons) - Future Hall of Famer, Tony Gonzalez, might be changing teams, but his consistent production probably won’t falter. Gonzalez should quickly become the security blanket for young gunslinger Matt Ryan, and in the excellently balanced Falcons offense, Gonzalez could develop into a TD machine for Ryan near the Goal Line.

Laverneus Coles (Jets to Bengals) – A healthy Carson Palmer could throw for 3,500 to 4,000 yards this season, expect Coles and OchoCinco to thrive if the Bengals can protect Palmer. Coles is sure handed and not afraid to go across the middle, much like the WR he was brought in to replace, Houshmandzadeh.

Sell

Jay Cutler (Broncos to Bears) – Much of Jay “Livebetes” Cutler’s success can be derived from the outstanding offensive line that protected him in Denver. In Chicago, the addition of Orlando Pace at Left Tackle won’t be enough to correct the Bears’ problems with protecting the QB. Cutler also goes from having a plethora of playmaking weapons to having a marginal corp of receiving talent. A regression from last season’s 4,000+ yard performance is likely.

Terrell Owens (Cowboys to Bills) – For the past 3 seasons, Romo to Owens was one of the most productive tandems in fantasy football. This season however, Terrible Owens finds a new team to disrupt, but without the on field success. Trent Edwards is a notable decline in talent and ability from Dallas’ Romo, and the Bills’ offense is definitely more run focused. Look for the other Bills WR, Lee Evans, to have better year than T.O. as defenses will key on 81.

Matt Cassel (Patriots to Chiefs) – Before last season Cassel was a career backup (college and pros), likely for a reason; just look at what the Chiefs gave up to acquire him: the aging Mike Vrabel and a 2nd round pick. To put the trade in perspective, Jay Cutler was traded shortly after for two 1st round picks, Kyle Orton, and a 3rd round pick. The talent level around Cassel has precipitously declined in KC and the organization as whole is reorganizing, don’t expect 2008 numbers from Cassel.

Hold

Brandon Marshall (Broncos to Unknown) – Recent news out of Denver is talented and troubled WR Brandon Marshall has requested a trade and rumors are flying about where he’ll land. Depending on where Marshall ends up his fantasy value will vary, but only moderately. On a team with a developed offense and above average QB (i.e. Cardinals), Marshall should flourish and return late 1st round, early 2nd round fantasy value. On an offensively challenged (Ravens) or developing squad Marshall should still return top 10 WR value. However, all value is dependent on Marshall staying out of trouble and avoiding suspension.

Buy scenarios (1,200 – 1,500 yds, 12+ TDs): Bears, Cardinals, Broncos, Giants.

Sell scenarios (1,000+ yds, 7+ TDs): Ravens, Browns, Jets.