Fantasy Football Advice

Sleeper Disclaimer: Although these are players that ought to be undervalued due to poor performance or injury in 2009, there might be a lot of hype swarming around them preseason. In this case the player has been “de-sleepered” and we don’t want them because our whole objective is to get undervalued players. Here at Razzball we will have extensive pre-draft coverage and go over all this.

In a previous post I discussed why DeSean Jackson could be a disappointment in 2010 for Fantasy. I am a big believer in managing your risk in order to produce consistently. We don’t want our scores to fluctuate drastically from week to week because we’ll lose more games that way.

A critical strategy in managing your risk is to avoid owning players on the same team unless you have an extremely good reason to do so (i.e. they are both huge Sleepers, you are handcuffing, etc.) I am going to dedicate a post to this whole concept and why I am right about it.

The reason I bring this up is both DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin are attractive players in 2010 Fantasy football. Since I’m not willing to own both and take on more risk, however, I need to choose between the two. In this type of dilemma I go with whichever player offers more upside.

DeSean Jackson will probably have the same type of year in 2010 that he had in 2009, perhaps not quite as good (still very solid, though). Jeremy Maclin should have a monster season and can be drafted MUCH later than Jackson. He has a lot more upside and thus I’ll be skipping over DeSean Jackson (who I owned in every league last year) and targeting Maclin in all my drafts.

Dude, what’s the deal with your ridiculous man-crush on Maclin? Am I gonna have to read about this constantly in your Razzball pre-draft coverage? Unless McNabb gets traded the system in Philadelphia is set up perfectly for a receiver like Maclin. Even if McNabb gets traded the system is favorable. And yes, you’re going to have to listen to it because I preach about the players that are the best value and Maclin fits the bill.

Entering the 2009 season there was some hype surrounding Maclin. He was a high round pick, had a great pedigree, and was a receiver (which the Eagles never seem to have enough of). He was drafted in the middle rounds in most leagues. The early part of the season Maclin’s production was basically nothing. He didn’t see the field nearly as much as anticipated and Donovan McNabb was giving him a lot of looks when he was in. Through the first 4 weeks he only had 6 catches for 45 yards with no touchdowns (although one of those weeks was a Bye). Many people, myself included, ending up dropping him in favor of better Sleepers. It looked like Maclin wouldn’t be relevant at all for 2009.

Beginning in week 5 Maclin went on a tear. Through the final 13 games he had 49 catches for 717 yards and 4 touchdowns.

I certainly think Maclin is capable of that pace or more for 2010. Don’t forget that he caught 7 balls for 146 yards and touchdown in the Eagles only playoff game. Even if he simply maintained his 2009 regular season production from week 5 on he’d rack up about 60 catches for over 1,000 yards and 5 touchdowns. That is a solid year in and of itself but remember: there’s upside!!!!!!

So let’s consider all the factors. Maclin has the pedigree, work ethic, physical tools, stable organization, superb passing attack, etc. He has everything we look for in a Sleeper. In 2010 he is a player you must target in your draft(s).

For 2009 I touted DeSean Jackson as a “must add” to your Fantasy squad. There is an inevitable cycle; a player is a Sleeper, he breaks out, the next season he’s overvalued. This means that often we will only end up owning a player for one season at a time.

DeSean Jackson will have a great year in 2010. He’ll be rated as one of the top receivers and drafted in the late 2^nd, early 3^rd round in most 12 team leagues. In PPR, which most of us play, he could disappoint. Not catastrophically, mind you, but at that spot in the draft I think we’ll be able to get more upside.

In 2009 I thought that the Eagles would look to put the ball in his hands 80+ times. It appeared that he had the potential to be used in the short and intermediate passing game as well as being a deep threat. Ultimately he was primarily a deep threat and ended up having a monster year for that “type” of player.

The problem with all of this for 2010 is big plays have a lot of variance. Jackson will be drafted under the assumption that he will hit as many “home run” type plays as he did the year before. When you look at the number of touchdowns he scored and how much yardage he covered on those plays there’s reason for concern. You have to ask yourself “what are the chances of him being able to improve upon those numbers.”

In 2009 Jackson posted 63 catches for 1,167 yards and 9 touchdowns. He added 2 return touchdowns (some leagues count those, others don’t).

Any reasonable person’s response to that would be “almost no chance unless the Eagles decide to get him involved in shorter routes the way we assumed in 2009.” So his yardage and touchdowns will almost certainly decline unless the receptions spike.

As an Eagles fan I would love Jackson to repeat his 2009 performance. I don’t feel that he needs to, however, in order for them to be successful. I will be writing a Sleeper post on Jeremy Maclin, who I think might be the best Sleeper at Wide Receiver in 2010. He won’t be a late round pick that comes “out of nowhere” but he offers guaranteed production in the mid rounds with enormous upside.

Wildcard weekend was a long boring journey through Snoresville, Blowout Town, and Not This Againburgh, but thankfully our final destination was Awesome Shootout Into Overtime Heights.  The Cardinals and Packers put up a record 96 combined points and helped restore my faith that there could be exciting football.  No, I don’t have to have a lot of scoring to like a game, but some question as to the outcome does help pique my interest!

The Cardinals move on to face the Saints in a game that could break 100! The Jets travel to San Diego to try out Rex Ryan’s “If you say it, it will happen” philosophy.  The Ravens take their running game sans passing game to Indianapolis.  And the Cowboys travel to the recirculated climes of the Metrodome to take on the Favres.

Kurt Warner: He had more touchdown passes than incompletions.  That my friends, is what we like to call in the business, amazing.  He’s getting old, has a crazy Stepford Wife, and may sometimes get a little too high on his Jesus horse, but going 29 for 33, for 379 yards and five touchdowns in the playoffs after taking his team to the Super Bowl the previous year has cemented his ticket to the Hall, but of course now he’ll need a jackhammer to get it out.

Aaron Rodgers: His first playoff game started horribly and ended horribly, but in between he threw for 422 yards, ran for a touchdown, and threw for four more.  He was the best fantasy QB in the league this year and will be leading the charge of yet another great crop of QB’s next year (giving us no reason to draft one in the first round).  That’s two years as a starting QB and twice that he’s been one of the top 2 fantasy QB’s.  Gotta love those rushing TD’s!

Jermichael Finley: The Cardinals had no answer for Finley (what was the question again?) and they allowed him 6 catches for 159 yards.  He finished the season strong and there is no reason to think he can’t be a top 5 TE next season.  Jeremychael can only get better with a great young QB throwing to him.

Steve Breaston: Matt Leinart’s favorite named receiver had a field day with Boldin on the bench.  He only caught one of Warner’s five TD passes, but did accumulate 7 receptions and 125 yards.

Early Doucet: He did his best Anquan Boldin tribute which may allow him to just take over his job completely next year; think Mark Wahlberg in Rock Star.  His 2 touchdowns and 77 yards might be his high for the playoffs if Boldin comes back, but Early will be on some fantasy teams sooner or later.

Larry Fitzgerald: He continues his insane playoff statistical run with 2 touchdowns and 82 yards and a fumble which we don’t have to talk about.  He did pretty blatantly run over Charles Woodson twice before catching both touchdowns, but it ain’t a foul unless you get flagged or kill someone.

Greg Jennings: He finished the season strong, and got on the shootout train in the playoffs for 8 receptions, 130 yards and a touchdown. He ended up as the 20th wide receiver in fantasy and it’s hard not to see him upping his numbers next season, but of course we thought he wouldn’t suck this season.  The Packers still need to improve their pass blocking, but Jennings has skills.

Joe Flacco: The sophomore QB led his team to a decisive 33-14 victory over the Patriots in Foxboro.  Well, when I say led, I may be overstating a bit. Handed off to might be the better wordage.  Flacco finished with 4 completions, 5 if you count his interception, and 34 yards.

Ray Rice: He had a day’s worth of stats after the first play of the game.  Rice is, how do you say in English, superstartastic.  There’s a chance McGahee won’t be back next season and I could easily see him drafted #3 overall with room to spare.  He ended the day with 159 yards and 2 touchdowns and will get plenty of use in Indianapolis next week.

Tom Brady: 3 interceptions, 2 touchdowns and 154 yards on 42 pass attempts is about right for the Pats quarterback who never looked right with Randy Moss taken out the game.  Moss’ knees weren’t 100%, Brady’s ribs were broken, Welker was gone, and a host of excuses that are probably just that, helped in making the Patriots look human-like.  The Patriots aren’t the same team and it’s starting to look like they might not be again.

Julian Edelman: He looked like he was also hurting for a lot of the game, but he also looked like he would amputate pieces of his body just to stay in the game.  The guy was scrappy, but a skilled kind of scrappy, skillpy, scrapilled? He got into the endzone twice and made some good punt returns.  Welker won’t be back at the beginning of the season and Julian will be a factor in fantasy next year.

Mark Sanchez: He had been a liability for much of the season, but miraculously poise-gutted himself into a solid rookie playoff performance going 12 for 15 for 182 yards and a touchdown.  Thankfully, for the Jets, he didn’t have to win the game for them because Carson Palmer and Shonn Greene tag teamed to do that.

Shonn Greene: Speaking of Mr. Greene, his 135 yards and a touchdown was the driving force for the Jets on Saturday and even though I’m sure I’ll have to eat my words like every time I say Tom Jones is done, I think Greene will lead the Jets in rushing attempts next season.

Braylon Edwards: If you are on Twitter it’s always a little amusing to see the Edward’s tweets explode every time he drops a pass, which happens as much as you think.  After dropping a sure touchdown bomb Sanchez smartly stayed away from him for the rest of the game.

Dustin Keller: If you drafted Keller with the hopes that he wouldn’t suck, his huge game against the Bengals didn’t help you in any way possible.  He only had 3 receptions, but went for 99 yards and a touchdown.

Carson Palmer: In his passing matchups article, Mark speculated that Palmer might be hiding an injury.  If he isn’t, then he just plain sucks, but either way, he was not on target against the Jets, completing just 50 percent of his passes for 146 yards, a touchdown and an interception.

Cedric Benson: Benson showed on Saturday that his success isn’t just the product of superior offensive line play.  He looked quick and powerful and even though I loathe giving him a good projected draft slot for next season, he may have won me over.

Chad Johnson: He was stranded on Revis Island all day and I still don’t think anybody has gone looking for him.

Tony Romo: He led the Cowboys to a big Wade Phillips Job Saving victory and did it in efficient fashion.  Things are coming up roses for the Cowboys. I wonder how they’ll blow it?

Felix Jones: Marion Barber didn’t “feel right,” which may be code for, “I was outplayed so badly by Felix the Great that I need to come up with an excuse,” but I have been wrong before.  Jones and Choice looked like the duo that needed to be out there anyway.  As long as Jones is healthy he is an elite talent, but the guy is a bit brittle.

Donovan McNabb: He ended up with 230 yards, a touchdown and an interception in the Eagles second humiliating loss in a row to their rival.  Reid says McNabb will be back and I believe he will be.  He will continue to be a good upside fantasy option if he can stay healthy.

Jeremy Maclin: Really the only bright spot for the Eagles, Maclin had 146 yards and a touchdown.  DJax and Maclin should help the Eagles remain contenders next season in Reid’s pass happy, no Super Bowl winning, offense.

Before we look at the games, I want to say thanks to Doc for stepping in for 3 weeks while I closed and moved into my first house. Like Pedro Cerrano, you’re in good hands with Doc. Regular season fantasy leagues are over, but there’s a lot of fantasy playoff leagues as well, and if you haven’t joined one yet, be sure to check out our Sporting News playoff league and/or our playoff challenge at NFL.com.

For these playoff games, I’m adding a short “What To Watch” section. I often pick a particular position matchup or aspect of the game that I intend to focus on, to break the habit of just watching the ball on every play. Sometimes the camerawork dictates how successful this endeavor is, but I’ve found it’s a good way to start noticing other parts of the game.

Saturday 4:30 EST

New York Jets @ Cincinnati

Great start to the passing matchups…the Jets and Bengals combined for 63 yards passing last week. Even if you don’t count the sack yardage against the total, it doesn’t crack 100 yards between the two teams. While I expect improved totals from both teams, it’s hard to feel good about this matchup. The Jets won’t be able to run 57 times like last week, so while I can’t recommend Sanchez, there’s at least an opportunity for Cotchery to get some looks. Dustin Keller is affected more by Sanchez’s inconsistent play than the opposing defense.

NYJ: Sanchez -2, Cotchery -1, Edwards -2, Keller -1 (more…)

A lot of you have joined our playoff league over at Sporting News and if you haven’t, go back and click on that Sporting News link, or this one, they’re the same.  I’ve been a fan of Sporting News salary cap games for a while now.  Compared to other sites, you can’t just start off with a team of studs, which makes strategy more important. At least I like to tell myself that since I won the big prize a few years back.  In the playoff game you also don’t have enough cash to throw together a great team.

You start with 35 million to spend on 2 QB’s, 2 RB’s, 2 WR/TE’s and 1 Defense. If I had unlimited cash here is a team I would like:

Aaron Rodgers 9.25

Tony Romo 7.75

Ray Rice 8.00

Ryan Grant: 6.25

Randy Moss 6.65

Larry Fitzgerald 6.25

New York Jets 3.35 (more…)