Fantasy Football Advice

Tight ends are barely above kickers and defenses on my fantasy totem, but that is more because of the need to only start one.  With tight ends becoming more and more offensive, I don’t see any reason not to make 2 TE leagues more prevalent.  That will be my goal next season, to join a 2 TE league, then all my hopes and dreams will have finally come to fruition.

Tier 1

1. Vernon Davis 26 — He’s always had the skills, but now he’s got the stats.

2. Antonio Gates 30 — He’s the second target in a pass first team and is probably the best TE now.

3. Dallas Clark 31 — He’s getting up there in age, but still has Manning.

4. Jermichael Finley 23 — Too young and good to pass up.  I could see gambling on him earlier.

5. Jason Witten 28 — Had a bit of a down year, but he hasn’t lost it.

Tier 2

6. Brent Celek 25 — Looked great last season and is in a great offense for TE.

7. Owen Daniels 27 — He’d be in that top tier if it wasn’t for his injury.

8. Kellen Winslow 27 — He’s the focal point of the Bucs inept offense right now.

9. Chris Cooley 28 — He’s consistent and should rebound from his injury and association with OCNN.

Tier 3

10. Zach Miller (OAK) 24 — On just about any other team he’d be a lot higher.

11. Greg Olsen 25 — Olsen is good, but now has Martz to deal with.

Tier 4

12. Brandon Pettigrew 25 — I grabbed Brandon “Peter” Pettigrew in my dynasty league.

13. Dustin Keller 26 — Keeps showing flashes of brilliance. He goes as Sanhcise goes.

Tier 5

14. Tony Gonzalez 34 — Wow, this guy keeps on going.  Make sure you grab an upside young guy to pair with him.

15. John Carlson 26 — He’s good, but Seattle is bad.  Carroll will be the big factor in how many touches he gets.

16. Heath Miller 27 — Solid and steady sometimes wins the race.

Tier 6

17. Tony Scheffler 27 — Depending on where he ends up, I see him having a comeback.

18. Vinsanthe Shiancoe 30 — Favre really boosted his numbers.  Could do that again, but I believe he needs the old man.

19. Kevin Boss 26 — He will be a good TE #2 for years to come.

Tier 7

20. Zach Miller 25 — The last game of the season saw Zach Millers scoring a bunch of TD’s.  Miller should start to cut into Mercede Lewis’ playing time.

21. Ben Watson 29 — Going to the Browns doesn’t sound like an upgrade, but Watson needed to get out of Belichick’s dog house.

22. Jared Cook 23 — With the resigining of Scaife, Cook will probably need to wait another season, but he has the skills to be good in the long term.

Tier 8

23. Marcedes Lewis 27 — Will have to fight Miller off.

24. Bo Scaife 29 — Still a starter, but (insert Scaife sucking joke).

25. Todd Heap 30 — He’s not even close to the player he once was.

26. Jeremy Shockey 30 — Nagging injuries and grossness keep him in the basement.

27. David Thomas 27 — The founder of Wendy’s will once again be filling in for Shockey.

Continuing from back in the day when I posted on the first three rounds of our mock draft, I have rounds 4-7 for your enjoyment.  You should also check out some other posts on the draft from my mockonspirators Melissa Jacobs at Football Girl, Bryan Fontaine at Rookie Blitz and Matt Schauf at RapidDraft.

My picks are in bold, because they’re bold.

Round Four

37. Anquan Boldin

38. Joseph Addai

39. Steve Smith (CAR)

40. Marques Colston

41. Wes Welker

42. Cedric Benson

43. Jerome Harrison

44. Shonn Greene

45. Sidney Rice

46. Steve Smith (NYG)

47. Braylon Edwards

48. Brandon Jacobs

– Braylon Edwards is the ultimate risk reward player, heavy on the risk, with a side of risk

– Both Steve Smiths made an appearance in the 4th round.  They are opposites in many ways and have different strengths.  The Mighty Giant is a consistent ppr stud, but won’t get you big yardage and TD games, while Mighty Mouse is the exact opposite; he won’t be consistent, but will have some huge games.

– Joseph Addai pulled off a great year when many thought he was on his way out, but can he do it again?  I’m not going to doubt him completely, but I have to be realistic and believe his numbers won’t be as high as last year with Donald Brown having a season under his belt.

– Shonn Greene and Jerome Harrison both turned it on toward the end of the season and I like both in the fourth round.  They have tremendous upside if they can get the ball.

– I think the steal of the draft has to be Cedric Benson this late.  It’s not a sexy pick, but he will get the bulk of the touches and is one of the few RBs that can make such a bold and outlandish claim.

Round Five

49. Donovan McNabb

50. Vernon Davis

51. Thomas Jones

52. Jay Cutler

53. Dallas Clark

54. Hakeem Nicks

55. Santonio Holmes

56. Jonathan Stewart

57. Antonio Gates

58. Dwayne Bowe

59. Brent Celek

60. Jason Witten

– I don’t really know where Jay Cutler’s ADP will be this season, but with many QB’s gone at this point I felt like I needed to grab a top QB.  When you hear the term “top QB,” Jay Cutler’s name doesn’t pop into your mind, but the guy is going to wing it, fling it, and sting it with Martz at the joystick.

– Thomas Jones went a round after Shonn Greene and I bet we’ll see that happening quite a bit this season.  It would be nice to know exactly how the committee will be split up, but you really have to pick the young guy with upside first.

– Jonathan Stewart went ballistic toward the end of last season and there are even rumors that D Willy could be going elsewhere, but I just don’t see that happening.  The Panthers will need both their running backs to compete, which means they will be splitting up those yummy fantasy points.

– I like Santonio Holmes this late.  I could see him going much earlier in drafts this season cuz he’s just that good.

Round Six

61. Terrell Owens

62. Chad Ochocinco

63. Greg Olsen

64. Donald Driver

65. Pierre Garcon

66. Michael Crabtree

67. Ben Roethlisberger

68. Hines Ward

69. Derrick Mason

70. Mike Sims Walker

71. Darren McFadden

72. Fred Jackson

– Here’s where my old man wide receiver crush comes into play once again.  Mason is steady and unless the Ravens get someone other than Stalloworth, like Boldin, I don’t see his numbers taking a huge hit this year.

– I’m loving fast Freddy Jackson at #72.  He showed that he can hold up for a season while getting the bulk of the carries and also showed that he can have huge games in the process.  We can’t be sure how he will be used, but he will be used.

– Terrell Owens might be worth something on the right team, but I won’t be grabbing him unless he falls further, and if he’s falling off the edge of a cliff I might just let him go.

– Mike Martz’s first born child was stolen by a tight end.

Round Seven

73. Robert Meachem

74. T.J. Houshmandzadeh

75. Tony Gonzalez

76. Ahmad Bradshaw

77. Eli Manning

78. Jermichael Finley

79. Owen Daniels

80. LeSean McCoy

81. Felix Jones

82. Kenny Britt

83. Percy Harvin

84. Jeremy Maclin

–Round seven brought out the upside picks.  Maclin, Harvin, Meachem and Britt are all young receivers with a lot of reasons to think they could break out this season. Britt has the least competition for touches, but also has Vince Young throwing to him.

– I always want at least one decent running back back-up and here I was choosing between Bradshaw and Jones.  I like both and both have injury issues, but also could end up having huge years since both are obviously the most talented backs on their team.   I like Bradshaw just a bit more than Jones.

– T.J. Houshmandzadeh is an interesting pick.  I don’t like him, but we could see that Seahawks offense really open up under Carroll.  I can’t help but worry about Hasselbeck sleeping awkwardly in a team meeting and rupturing his spleen.

– Jermichael Finley is going to go early this season.  I agree that he is worth a high ranking, but he’s still a tight end and tight ends are deep.  That didn’t sound right did it?

Wildcard weekend was a long boring journey through Snoresville, Blowout Town, and Not This Againburgh, but thankfully our final destination was Awesome Shootout Into Overtime Heights.  The Cardinals and Packers put up a record 96 combined points and helped restore my faith that there could be exciting football.  No, I don’t have to have a lot of scoring to like a game, but some question as to the outcome does help pique my interest!

The Cardinals move on to face the Saints in a game that could break 100! The Jets travel to San Diego to try out Rex Ryan’s “If you say it, it will happen” philosophy.  The Ravens take their running game sans passing game to Indianapolis.  And the Cowboys travel to the recirculated climes of the Metrodome to take on the Favres.

Kurt Warner: He had more touchdown passes than incompletions.  That my friends, is what we like to call in the business, amazing.  He’s getting old, has a crazy Stepford Wife, and may sometimes get a little too high on his Jesus horse, but going 29 for 33, for 379 yards and five touchdowns in the playoffs after taking his team to the Super Bowl the previous year has cemented his ticket to the Hall, but of course now he’ll need a jackhammer to get it out.

Aaron Rodgers: His first playoff game started horribly and ended horribly, but in between he threw for 422 yards, ran for a touchdown, and threw for four more.  He was the best fantasy QB in the league this year and will be leading the charge of yet another great crop of QB’s next year (giving us no reason to draft one in the first round).  That’s two years as a starting QB and twice that he’s been one of the top 2 fantasy QB’s.  Gotta love those rushing TD’s!

Jermichael Finley: The Cardinals had no answer for Finley (what was the question again?) and they allowed him 6 catches for 159 yards.  He finished the season strong and there is no reason to think he can’t be a top 5 TE next season.  Jeremychael can only get better with a great young QB throwing to him.

Steve Breaston: Matt Leinart’s favorite named receiver had a field day with Boldin on the bench.  He only caught one of Warner’s five TD passes, but did accumulate 7 receptions and 125 yards.

Early Doucet: He did his best Anquan Boldin tribute which may allow him to just take over his job completely next year; think Mark Wahlberg in Rock Star.  His 2 touchdowns and 77 yards might be his high for the playoffs if Boldin comes back, but Early will be on some fantasy teams sooner or later.

Larry Fitzgerald: He continues his insane playoff statistical run with 2 touchdowns and 82 yards and a fumble which we don’t have to talk about.  He did pretty blatantly run over Charles Woodson twice before catching both touchdowns, but it ain’t a foul unless you get flagged or kill someone.

Greg Jennings: He finished the season strong, and got on the shootout train in the playoffs for 8 receptions, 130 yards and a touchdown. He ended up as the 20th wide receiver in fantasy and it’s hard not to see him upping his numbers next season, but of course we thought he wouldn’t suck this season.  The Packers still need to improve their pass blocking, but Jennings has skills.

Joe Flacco: The sophomore QB led his team to a decisive 33-14 victory over the Patriots in Foxboro.  Well, when I say led, I may be overstating a bit. Handed off to might be the better wordage.  Flacco finished with 4 completions, 5 if you count his interception, and 34 yards.

Ray Rice: He had a day’s worth of stats after the first play of the game.  Rice is, how do you say in English, superstartastic.  There’s a chance McGahee won’t be back next season and I could easily see him drafted #3 overall with room to spare.  He ended the day with 159 yards and 2 touchdowns and will get plenty of use in Indianapolis next week.

Tom Brady: 3 interceptions, 2 touchdowns and 154 yards on 42 pass attempts is about right for the Pats quarterback who never looked right with Randy Moss taken out the game.  Moss’ knees weren’t 100%, Brady’s ribs were broken, Welker was gone, and a host of excuses that are probably just that, helped in making the Patriots look human-like.  The Patriots aren’t the same team and it’s starting to look like they might not be again.

Julian Edelman: He looked like he was also hurting for a lot of the game, but he also looked like he would amputate pieces of his body just to stay in the game.  The guy was scrappy, but a skilled kind of scrappy, skillpy, scrapilled? He got into the endzone twice and made some good punt returns.  Welker won’t be back at the beginning of the season and Julian will be a factor in fantasy next year.

Mark Sanchez: He had been a liability for much of the season, but miraculously poise-gutted himself into a solid rookie playoff performance going 12 for 15 for 182 yards and a touchdown.  Thankfully, for the Jets, he didn’t have to win the game for them because Carson Palmer and Shonn Greene tag teamed to do that.

Shonn Greene: Speaking of Mr. Greene, his 135 yards and a touchdown was the driving force for the Jets on Saturday and even though I’m sure I’ll have to eat my words like every time I say Tom Jones is done, I think Greene will lead the Jets in rushing attempts next season.

Braylon Edwards: If you are on Twitter it’s always a little amusing to see the Edward’s tweets explode every time he drops a pass, which happens as much as you think.  After dropping a sure touchdown bomb Sanchez smartly stayed away from him for the rest of the game.

Dustin Keller: If you drafted Keller with the hopes that he wouldn’t suck, his huge game against the Bengals didn’t help you in any way possible.  He only had 3 receptions, but went for 99 yards and a touchdown.

Carson Palmer: In his passing matchups article, Mark speculated that Palmer might be hiding an injury.  If he isn’t, then he just plain sucks, but either way, he was not on target against the Jets, completing just 50 percent of his passes for 146 yards, a touchdown and an interception.

Cedric Benson: Benson showed on Saturday that his success isn’t just the product of superior offensive line play.  He looked quick and powerful and even though I loathe giving him a good projected draft slot for next season, he may have won me over.

Chad Johnson: He was stranded on Revis Island all day and I still don’t think anybody has gone looking for him.

Tony Romo: He led the Cowboys to a big Wade Phillips Job Saving victory and did it in efficient fashion.  Things are coming up roses for the Cowboys. I wonder how they’ll blow it?

Felix Jones: Marion Barber didn’t “feel right,” which may be code for, “I was outplayed so badly by Felix the Great that I need to come up with an excuse,” but I have been wrong before.  Jones and Choice looked like the duo that needed to be out there anyway.  As long as Jones is healthy he is an elite talent, but the guy is a bit brittle.

Donovan McNabb: He ended up with 230 yards, a touchdown and an interception in the Eagles second humiliating loss in a row to their rival.  Reid says McNabb will be back and I believe he will be.  He will continue to be a good upside fantasy option if he can stay healthy.

Jeremy Maclin: Really the only bright spot for the Eagles, Maclin had 146 yards and a touchdown.  DJax and Maclin should help the Eagles remain contenders next season in Reid’s pass happy, no Super Bowl winning, offense.

We continue our playoff rankings with wide receivers, tight ends, defenses, and kickers.  We went over quarterbacks and running backs yesterday.  So if you slap this post together with that one you have a rankings sandwich that will satiate your playoff hunger.

Wide receivers are a crapshoot already, but add a receivers inherent sketchiness to the playoffs one and done-ness, and you have a recipe for some poor choices.  And that tastes not nearly as good as a rankings sandwich.

Wide Receivers:

1. Reggie Wayne: This is a bit of a shaky number one since there is always a chance that Peyton could use Reggie as a decoy, but I feel like he is the safest bet for overall production.

2. Randy Moss: His talent should put him at #1, but I worry about the Welker effect.  It’s similar to the Revis effect, but hurts Moss every game, not just when they play the Jets. You could argue that Moss will see more passes his way, but he should have some trouble shedding double coverage without Welker around.  He will get his no matter what, but will they get past Baltimore? If you think so he’s easily worth a top pick.

3. Miles Austin: I almost put him at number one, but he has a chance to be one and done.  Romo knows that trying to placate Roy Williams doesn’t win games and that Miles Austin is the real deal. (more…)

Matthew Stafford just wrote a story he’ll be able to tell his grand kids.  Of course he won’t say it was against Cleveland, but still, he became the youngest quarterback to ever throw for 5 touchdowns in a game and he did it with a bad wing!  I don’t see Stafford now becoming a fantasy god with the schedule he has, but he’s going to keep Megatron relevant and hopefully make Detroit a contender at some point.

Mark Sanchez: Another rookie quarterback took the field on Sunday, but instead of giving his fans hope for a wonderful future he gave each one of them metaphorical Dirty Sanchez.

Bernard Scott: He ended up with a decent game in Oakland, helped by a 61 yard run.  I’d hold onto him as long as you can in case Benson reinjures himself.  His schedule is too good to lose him because you got nervous that you needed a third tight end to round out your team. (more…)