Fantasy Football Advice

Who is that, who is that, who is that who is going to outscore the New Orleans Saints?  Nobody, that is who or whom or dat; I dunno.  In between commercials and The CSI Players, Drew Brees picked apart the Indianapolis Colts secondary while Peyton Manning did the same except for one errant throw that went the other way for a Saints touchdown.  And that was the game. Good night, or morning, or grief.

I was fairly confident Manning would gut it out, and when he didn’t my whole world view crumbled and I spiraled into a depression of Steven Wright proportions. Well, not really.  I was surprised though.  All the talk about Manning possibly being the greatest ever will have to be put on hold.  This game doesn’t mean he can’t work his way back into that conversation, but what this game really did was shoot Drew Brees right into the middle of that great quarterback debate.  His numbers are right up there with Kurt Warner’s and after winning a Super Bowl he is assured Hall of Fame talk unless he takes the Tiger Woods/Mark McGwire path to Grandma’s house (which is also the name of a brothel/HGH bar.

This game didn’t make any huge splashes fantasy-wise, but it’s hard to believe both teams won’t be scoring points next season.  Yes, the year after a team wins, loses, or chokes away a Super Bowl they have trouble not sucking, but Manning and Brees will keep their teams competitive at the very least.  Reggie Bush will be discussed a lot this off season.  He is getting paid way too much for the numbers he puts up.  He helps the team, but not enough when that money could go elsewhere. He could land with a team that might use him more, but that would be a mistake since he’s made of peanut brittle.  Pierre Thomas is the best back in New Orleans and will continue to get the bulk of the carries and if he can stay relatively healthy, will be the guy to own.  Of course Sean Payton could use Ron Dayne on the goal line.  Joseph Addai really showed something to his detractors this year and it will be hard for Donald Brown to supplant him, but if Brown stays healthy there is no way he doesn’t dip into Addai’s numbers enough to hurt his fantasy value.  Anthony Gonzalez can’t be happy with what developed at wide receiver while he was hurting.  Pierre Garcon really developed and has earned the right to be the #2 receiver.  And with Gonzalez out of the game for so long I don’t see him taking that job back very quickly.  Brees and Manning of course are atop the fantasy heap, but I doubt I’ll own either one once again next season.  Top QB’s are around later in the draft and I’ll take a RB or three please.

The game was good, but not classic.  We might be getting a little too used to games like the Patriots/Giants and Cardinals/Steelers.  Remember when Super Bowls had the suspense of a Ashton Kutcher movie plot line?  Yes, Joe Montana and Troy Aikman hook up in the end!

So this brings us to a close of the 2009-2010 NFL season, which means we are at the beginning of the 2010-2011 season!! Tonight we are hosting our first mock draft to kick off the breaking down and over-thinking of the season to come.  So stay tuned and remember, the NFL season is never over, it just gets slightly less violent.

Here are my rankings for the Super Bowl peppered with some “remember me hits.”  Let’s get it, as they say, on!

Quarterbacks:

1. Peyton Manning: In these here playoffs the Saints have forced at least one quarterback into retirement and another possibly into hiding/retirement/24/7 news cycle.  They will be coming after Peyton Manning with the force of Zeus’ own thunder! But then he’ll sidestep and throw a touchdown.  We saw the Jets’ #1 defense get to Manning early in the AFC Championship game and then the Manning Machine finally got warmed up and chewed them up and spat them out while throwing for 377 yards and 3 TD’s.  That’s the most passing yards given up by the Jets all year.  And the Saints don’t have as good a pass defense as the Jets. In the Saints’ last 6 meaningful games (not including week 17 when they rested starters) they have given up 303.5 passing yards per game.  Greg Williams wants his players to put some “remember me hits” on Peyton early.  Rex Ryan probably had the same game plan.

2. Drew Brees: He is probably the best all around fantasy quarterback going against the best all around real quarterback.  The Colts are vulnerable against the pass with their young defensive backs and unless Freeney and Mathis can pressure Brees consistently, he will be able to move the ball through the air.  The Saints did try to balance the run with the pass in the championship game. They had 23 rushes to 31 passes even though they only averaged 3 yards a carry.  I believe they’ll try a similar ratio against the Colts, so Brees’ numbers could be dampened just a little.

Running Backs:

1. Joseph Addai: He ran strong against the Jets’ tough run defense totaling 81 yards on 16 carries.  The Colts won’t all of the sudden try to run the ball down the Saints throats, but Addai could see similar to better numbers against a poor rushing defense, and I see him adding a touchdown.  Addai has been a little dinged up and the 2 weeks of rest should help him quite a bit.

2. Pierre Thomas: He says his ribs aren’t bothering him and he did have a decent game against a good Vikings rush defense.  The Colts have had good game plans against elite running backs, but PT won’t be their main focus and could sneak in a couple big runs.

3. Reggie Bush: Bush is the ultimate boom or bust (sounds a little like his girlfriend).  I almost put him above PT because he is always a threat to take the ball all the way.  But in the biggest game in the whole wide world of sports I think Payton trusts Thomas with the ball more.  Bush does elevate his game and could go off, but I’m playing it safe with PT and his 15-20 touches.

4. Donald Brown: He was clearly backing up Addai last week so it looks like he’s passed Mike Hart as he should have.  Coming off his injury I’ve seen a couple very nice runs from him, but for the most part he’s not doing enough to take many looks away from Addai and I doubt things will change much in the Super Bowl.

5. Mike Bell/Lynell Hamilton: Both of these guys have about the same chance of vulturing a touchdown from Pierre Thomas.

Wide Receivers:

1. Reggie Wayne: Garcon and Collie benefited from Wayne getting Revis-ed last week, but Revis didn’t get invited to the Super Bowl.  The Saints did slow Sidney Rice, but he still had 4 receptions for 43 yards and a TD.  The Saints are going to have their hands full with Garcon, Collie and Clark, so giving Wayne extra attention might be tough.

2. Marques Colston: Against the Vikings Drew Brees completed passes to 8 different players and only had a total of 17 completions.  Not one receiver had a great game and that has really been the way it has gone all season.  Colston is the Saints best receiver so he gets the #2 nod.

3. Pierre Garcon: He showed he could be the #1 guy without any downgrade in production.  Reggie Wayne is still the man and unless the Saints spend a lot of resources on shutting him down we should see Garcon’s numbers dip from last week’s game.

4.Devery Henderson: He’s leading the Saints in receiving in the playoffs and has scored as many touchdowns in the playoffs as he did all season with two.  You can’t discount a player who is hot in the playoffs.  Of course he could be shut out, but trying to pick a Saints receiver is tough no matter what you do, might as well go with the hot hand.

5. Robert Meachem: He’s been hurting, but seems to be healthy now and he would probably be my pick to pull another Braylon Edwards on the Colts defense.  The only problem with that is the Saints aren’t a run first team like the Jets, so it will be tougher to beat the Colts deep.

6. Austin Collie: Collie should see the biggest drop off from the Revis game, but you cannot count him out for a touchdown.  Manning will throw to the open guy. So get open!

7. Lance Moore: Just another Saints wide receiver to divvy up the receptions.  What ever happened to a #1 and #2 receiver that got a predetermined number of catches?  That never happens? Hmm, maybe I was watching darts.

Tight Ends:

1. Dallas Clark: This is a bit of a no-brainer based on his competition, but the Saints have been tough against tight ends.  They’ve only given up one TD to a TE and the was the future Hall of Famer Fred Davis. Clark is too good to shut out.

2. Dave Thomas: If I were Sean Payton I would play Thomas over Shockey based on hair alone, but also because Shockey is hurting.  I really wouldn’t want either Saints’ tight end, but the founder of Wendys isn’t hurting.

3. Jeremy Shockey: He says he will risk an even worse injury than he already has to play in the Super Bowl.  Well, that’s very William Wallace of you Jeremy, but I think they’ll go with the healthier guy.

Kickers:

1. Garrett Hartley: The Colts can interpretive dance the cliche of “bend and don’t break” and it is a beautiful display that will go off-broadway after the Super Bowl.  Hartley will have some chances to kick.

2. Matt Stover: I see the Colts converting their drives into touchdowns more often than the Saints.

Defense/Special Teams:

1. New Orleans Saints: I like the Colts to win this game, but with Roby and Bush returning kicks and punts and the Saints loving the turnover they have a little more upside.

2. Indianapolis Colts: This should be a high scoring game.  The Colts might be the safer defense since I see them having more points than that other team.

These are the guys you wave in front of your leaguemates’ faces while you laugh and point and dance.

Brett Favre: 14th QB off the board, finished 3rd — It’s hard to give props to Favre after putting us through Favre-gate, Favre-tractor gate, Favre-ChillySUV gate, and Favre-from over gate, and some other words with gate after them, but on the football field he had a career year and finished as the third best fantasy quarterback.  That’s ahead of The Manning.  Sadly we have to ask if he’ll be back next season.  He’s already said it is “highly unlikely” that he’ll return and his teammates believe he is done.  Of course when he heals up from the beating the Saints gave him he may change his mind.  His, do I stay or do I go, routine will have a huge impact on the Vikings skill players next season.

Ray Rice: 19th RB, finished 4th — This is why you reach for players you like.  Rice got a lot of hype in the preseason, but even with that he was the 19th running back taken. Will all good young running backs that have been run through the hype machine turn out to be Ray Rice? Uh, do I really need to answer that?  So the question comes down to, do you go with young upside or old downside?  Or middle-aged backside? Scratch that last one.  I tend to go with a young back like Rice over an old one like Portis or Westbrook, but that also means I grab the Darren McFaddens of the world too.  Oh, and Ray Rice is awesome.

Thomas Jones: 25th RB, finished 5th — Here is the old downside that ended up going upside my head.  Tom Jones was healthy and steady on a team built for running.  Jones doesn’t break down and I could see him being worthwhile next season, but I could also see him not even being on the Jets if they rather not pay him and go with Shonn Greene and his amazing playoff run.

Ricky Williams: 55th RB, finished 7th — Ricky ran very well as Ronnie Brown’s backup and would have been a good value even if RB hadn’t been injured, but of course he was, and Ricky’s numbers went from buds to blossoms. I like Ricky and he should have some value next season.  I don’t believe he can hold up for a full season with a full workload, but as long as Brown can come back, Ricky should be able to produce in a committee.

Miles Austin: 48th WR, finished 3rd — Austin didn’t come out of nowhere, but he might as well have.  Patrick Crayton and Roy Williams showed that they aren’t good enough to play with the big boys every weekend and Austin is.  It looked like Austin might slow down once he started getting more attention from defenses, but he adapted and showed that he can sustain his numbers as long as he continues to get targets.

Joseph Addai: 22nd RB, finished 9th — It looked like Donald Brown would cut into Addai’s numbers, but Brown never quite developed and then got injured.  Next season should be a different story and I just don’t see Addai putting up the TD numbers he did this year.

Jonathan Stewart: 33rd RB, finished 11th — JStew had an achilles injury in preseason and it looked like it would linger so he dropped in ADP.  Well, it did, but he still played every week in a committee role with DeAngelo Williams.  It wasn’t until Williams went down that he had more than 20 carries in a game and he made those carries count.  Stewart started four out of the last five games and totaled 560 yards averaging 5.9 yards a carry in those four starts.  And in the finale he reinjured his achilles and left the game early. Extrapolate these numbers over a full season and you have 2,240 yards rushing.  Him and Deangelo totaled 2,250 yards.  But of course they totaled 421 carries as a pair, which would have hospitalized any one human being.

Jamaal Charles: 58th RB, finished 12th — I picked up and dropped JC a few thousand times while waiting for Todd Haley to get his head out of his arse.  When he finally did, Charles went on an unbelievable tear that will get him in the top 10 of most drafts next season.

Sidney Rice: No ADP, finished 7th — I give a lot of credit to Favre for giving Rice the work he deserved.  Rice has the skills, but he will be hurt the most if Favre stays home.

Vernon Davis: 17th TE, finished 1st — His ability was never in question, but he couldn’t quite get it done.  Coaching, quarterback play, and his own work ethic all contributed to that, but he finally broke out and in a big way.  His only real competition for receptions is Michael Crabtree so I don’t see him not being targeted a lot next season.

Rashard Mendenhall: 42nd RB, finished 14th — Mendenhall was in Mike Tomlin’s doghouse for the preseason and early in the regular season. He didn’t touch the ball once on offense in week 3 while being chastised by the smoldering-eyed Tomlin.  But he must have learned somthin somethin because in week 4 he totaled 191 yards and 2 touchdowns.  He didn’t have a lot of huge games, but he was steady, and since he’ll be the main back for a good team he’ll have a lot of value next season.

Steve Smith: 52nd WR, finished 11th — It was difficult divining who would fill the space left by Plaxico Burress.  And when we did, it didn’t quite work out; yes, I’m looking at you Mr. Manningham.  Mr. Smith went to NY and didn’t take it by storm, but slowly ppr’d them into submission.  He’s not going to grab a ton of TD’s and rack up many 100 yard games, but he’ll get you 5-8 receptions and 50-75 yards a game, all without shooting himself in the leg.

So instead of hearing about Favre every day until the Super Bowl we get to see grainy color film of the Manning boys playing catch in the backyard and hear tales of Drew Brees in his motor boat picking people off roofs.  I’m mainly happy that I don’t have to hear Rex Ryan blathering on about how his team should be favored.  Maybe he was saying flavored instead of favored?  Is that why he has put on an extra 150 pounds?  Are there any back up Jets’ kickers missing?

I’ll save you all the suspense; I’m going with The Mannings in this bout of white bread vs. Creole.  Besides the fact that I think Peyton is the ultimate X factor, I refuse to root for any team with Jeremy Shockey on it to win the Super Bowl. As commenter Danimal35 said, no team that lost to the Buccaneers in the regular season has ever won the Super Bowl.  I think that record will continue in Miami in two weeks.  Two weeks!? Ugh.

Peyton Manning: I would like to thank Manning for not making me look too stupid in front of my throngs of readers.  Hi mom! My prediction that passing is the new fad to take over the NFL was correct!  And also thanks to Bradbury Robinson and his “projectile pass,” which sounds more like vomit than football, but whatevs.  Even though the AFC Championship wasn’t a last second affair like the NFC game, it was a better all around game without the fumbleruski play being implemented on each drive.  Peyton once again showed why he is the best QB in the game by steering away from Revis Island and docking most his passes on Collie Reef and in Garcon Bay.  Next week he gets the turnover happy, but not very cover happy pass defense.

Joseph Addai: He came out of the game again this week, but managed to get back in there and out rush the rushing elite Jets.  With 2 weeks rest he will be ready to go in the Super Bowl against the poor Saints’ rush defense.

Pierre Garcon: He had 11 receptions, 151 yards and a touchdown and I could chalk it all up to Revis taking out Wayne, but Garcon didn’t look like he was just a beneficiary of a lot of targets and poor defensive backs; he made some amazing catches.  I like Anthony Gonzalez, but he may have just been Wally Pipped.

Austin Collie: Collie also came up big, but didn’t look quite as athletic after the catch as Garcon.  He ended up with a great 123 yards and a touchdown grab, but should see his role decreased a little as long as Darrelle Revis doesn’t make the trip to Miami.

Reggie Bush: He caught a pass for a touchdown, but otherwise he once again showed why he is pretty much worthless in the sense of things that are worth something, which he isn’t.  He muffed a punt, or bushed it, if you will. And by muffed or bushed, I mean that he bailed out so he wouldn’t get hit.

Pierre Thomas: He totaled 99 yards and a rushing touchdown and looks like he’ll continue to be the go to guy in the Super Bowl after Reggie Bush had no luck running the ball.  He was the second Pierre to have a good game on Championship Sunday.  What happened to all the Merican football players?!!

Drew Brees: He has 6 touchdowns and no interceptions in the playoffs so far.  It was difficult to tell if he was playing or not since all I can remember is Brett limping around, but looking back at the stats it looks like he was.  He didn’t out grit Ol’ Favre, but he was steady.  He gets a Colts pass defense that wasn’t really tested by Flacco and Sanchez actually looked good against them.  Look for around 1,000 total yards passing in Miami.

Devery Henderson: The DH has come up big in the playoffs so far.  Picking what receivers will get the yards and touchdowns for the Saints is a crapola shoot at best, but if you like riding the hot hand, and who doesn’t?, then get DH in your lineup.  I think the DH is allowed to play in a neutral stadium.

Brett Favre: He really did get beat like a 40 year old pinata, but made some amazing throws in the process.  His last throw was a pick, but I still can’t understand why Childress was running the ball and settling for a 51 yard field goal?  Then, after having too many men in the huddle, the Vikings were pretty much out of field goal range and Favre had to make a play, so he forced it like is his want to do, and got pickaruskied.  It wasn’t like they were on the five yard line and needed a chip shot to win it.  Whatever happens with Favre he proved that he can still play at an elite level, which just doesn’t happen with 40 year oldies.

Adrian Peterson: He had some great runs and three touchdowns and some really bad ball control, no not the Paris Hilton kind (sorry mom), but the fumbling kind.  He needs to figure some shizz out and quick.  He hasn’t lost his speed or moves or power, but he doesn’t look like he knows what the eighch he’s doing out there.  He just plows ahead with reckless abandon and coughs up the ball (see Paris Hilton) more than he should.  He had an amazing game statistically and there is no reason to think he will slow down fantasy wise.  So why should we care?!

Sidney Rice: He caught a touchdown, but saw a lot of double coverage, so Favre looked elsewhere.  Rice has the skills to be an elite #1 receiver in this league, but TJax isn’t the guy to help him remain an elitist.

Bernard Berrian: 102 yards receiving was his highest number for the season.  His age, injury proneness, competition, and possible loss of Favre make him free agency fodder in a lot of leagues next season.

Mark Sanchez: I was impressed by the Bearded-Sanchez.  When he needed to make throws he made them.  Ryan should have actually turned him loose in the early downs more often instead of plodding ahead with the ineffective running game, but what do I know? (don’t answer that).  Sanchez will continue to improve, but his fantasy value should still have a low ceiling (think Gandalf in Bag End) next year.  If they can keep Greene, Jones and Washington they should continue to run it down opponents’ throats.

Shonn Greene: He injured his ribs and only ended up with 10 carries for 48 yards, but he had already shown his ability in the games before this.  He is going to be super-hyped, especially if Thomas Jones is let go due to salary and oldness.  If that happens, I’ll probably be conducting the super-hype train.

Braylon Edwards: He ended up with 100 yards and a long touchdown which he amazingly caught.  Edwards must be a head case or maybe he just can’t catch, but he has the ability to get open and make amazing catches when the ball doesn’t hit him directly in the hands. I’ll always be wary of drafting him.

Jerricho Cotchery: Sanchez hooked up with Cotchery 5 times for 102 yards.  The Cotch Rocket is a steady receiver and should continue to be as Sanchez blossoms.  Looking back at what I just wrote I could be writing a review of a new ABC Family show. If they make a pregnancy pact I am going to freak out!

Sunday 3:00 EST

New York Jets @ Indianapolis

Shonn Greene has unofficially moved passed Thomas Jones on the run first offense of the J-E-T-S.  There is no reason to think he won’t see the majority of the carries once again this week, but don’t be surprised if Jones comes in on big downs because Ryan trusts him a little more with ball security. The Jets must be able to run the ball to win this game.  If they are successful, they wear down the Colts front 7 and keep Peyton Manning off the field.  The Colts defense did face a similar offense last week and slowed down the dynamic Ray Rice.  The Jets offensive line coupled with Tony Richardson is a formidable force, but Mark Sanchez will need to do more than sit there and look pretty if the Jets want to win.

NYJ: Greene +1. Jones -1

The Jets are proving over and over that their defense is too hot to handle and too cold to hold and if you call them the Colts Busters they might just be in control.  Last week the Peyton Mannings took on a good defense and chipped away at them through the short pass.  Joseph Addai, Donald Brown and Mike Hart P.I. all got some work in against Baltimore, but didn’t put up numbers worth squat.  Addai was out for a quarter with a shoulder injury, but should be the starter once again.  If you think the Colts win and are in a league that you need to pick the winner in, it’s hard not to go with Addai, but if your in a weekly matchup I think Greene is your guy.

IND: Addai -1, Brown, -2, Hart -2

Sunday 6:40 EST

Minnesota @ New Orleans

Adrian Peterson is healthy and a man-beast, but can’t seem to break out.  The rumblings are that he’s not following his blocks and thinks his awesomeness should overtake the game, but it’s not happening.  The Saint’s run defense is their biggest weakness and it would behoove the Vikings to resurrect Purple Jesus in the Superdome, but will they?  It isn’t as if they need AP to run for a hundred yards to win, but against the Saints he has a shot at breaking out, and they should give him the opportunities.

MIN: Peterson +2, Taylor 0

Last week we were once again subjected to the unpredictability of the Saints’ backfield. Reggie Bush had a huge game while Lynell Hamilton vultured a goal line touchdown from Pierre Thomas.  I’ve noted my dislike for the committee in New Orleans and it just continues to screw fantasy football players.  This would be about the time we would contemplate putting Bush into our lineups which will mean that he does nothing.  He does seem to play better in big games so there is a chance that he will break one.  The Vikings tough rush defense should keep Pierre Thomas bottled up and who knows who will get the goal line carries.  If I had to gamble it would be on Bush, but it would be a big gamble.

NO: Bush 0, Thomas -1, Hamilton -2, Bell -2