…Because I Always Welcome Another Thing to Disappoint Me.

Wait, we’re already rebooting Spiderman again? Oh, hey, quick question, anyone know who sponsored the SNF opening? Was it T-Mobile? Sprint maybe? Also, you should know that Von Miller was jumping with butt-flames before it was hip…

Welcome to what I call “Jay’s Review”… since, you know, I’m Jay, and this is my review of Week 1. Spoilier Alert! (That probably should have gone before the last sentence, but f*ck it, we’re doing it live!) For many of you who’ve been wandering around my Razzballs (haha, get it?) for the last four years, you’ve seen the site go through minute but incremental changes. Kinda like the world in general. So DEEP. And so this season, we’re bringing yet another minute and incremental change… If you hadn’t noticed, Matt Bowe led off the day with his take on what happened Sunday… you should check it out. I think it was a love letter to Kenny Golladay, but whatever. Having such an informative asset (potential double entendre alert!) in terms of both Football and Fantasy Football will allow me to spread my wings and fly. Right over to your mother’s house. It’s no secret that I like having a little fun… probably a little too much fun. For those of you who want deep analytics like how I want to watch Deep Impact over and over again (Armageddon is in my top-10, lest we all forget that asteroid movies are my fetish) and some usable fantasy information, Matt’s your guy. If you’d like to have a little fun with what happened Sunday, experience some jokes, watch some great plays in GIF form, create some hot takes, AND still enjoy some “measured” usable fantasy information, welcome to my club! We get spiffy hats. Just kidding. I just get the spiffy hats. TL;DR – Why so serious? See Matt! Want to see me in a spiffy hat? See me!

Please, blog, may I have some more?

This is Part Deux of Predicting the Top 10 for 2017. For the running back series, click here.

My primary motivation for the running back piece was due to the proliferation of the “Zero RB” drafting strategy. The basic premise of this strategy is that running backs are too risky due to injury and usage (RBBC). Was there a way to mitigate the risk or identify trends from history that could assist with choosing the right running back?

The “Zero RB” strategy advocates drafting wide receivers. “The wide receiver gets more projected points when you adjust projections for risk.” If that’s the case, then ADP for wide receivers should be able to predict the final top 10 at a much higher rate than for running backs, right?

Going back 12 years, though, that just hasn’t been the case. Here’s a look of the percentage of top 10 ADP WRs that finished the season in the top 10, per season.

Take me on in the Razzball Commenter Leagues for a chance at prizes! Free to join, leagues still open!

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Pierre Garçon is the newly signed #1 wide receiver of the San Francisco 49ers. You are probably asking yourself: “Why does the lead receiver of a team that Vegas predicts will win four or five games in 2017 matter for Fantasy Football drafts and why did I click on this article?” Great question, the three key reasons why Pierre Garçon is a super sleeper in 2017 Fantasy Football drafts are his projected opportunity, his reunion with an old offensive mastermind, and very his low price.

Take me on in the Razzball Commenter Leagues for a chance at prizes! Join here!

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Hello everyone, and welcome to another post in our draft strategy series where today, we’ll take a look at the wide receiver position for 2017, and how to best attack it in drafts. Again, like the post I wrote about quarterbacks and running backs, this will be more of an open discussion about the position and less about the three players I like, the three I don’t, etc. So let’s get started now about how I think the WR position will be attacked in drafts, and how it should be attacked in drafts.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

After publishing my first post on Razzball, I wanted to also offer my selection for the most overrated player in upcoming fantasy football drafts as Drew Brees. While Brees has been the model of excellence while quarterbacking the New Orleans Saints by averaging between 21 and 24 standard fantasy points per game since 2012, he is entering his 17th year in the NFL at age 38. For over a decade, Brees has had the pleasure of playing in a division with historically weak defenses while playing 10+ games per year in temperature controlled domes with an offensive mastermind calling the shots and incredibly talented weapons catching his touchdown passes. However, in the past 3 seasons, Brees has lost favorite targets such as Jimmy Graham, Brandin Cooks, and Marques Colston. Down the stretch of 2016, Brees only had a 7-to-7 TD:INT ratio in the final 5 games of the season, which was a main reason that the New Orleans Saints barely missed the playoffs with a 7-9 record. While the addition of Adrian Peterson to team up with Mark Ingram in the running game should take some of the onus off of Brees to carry the team on his back for another season, a stronger commitment to the running game would also limit red-zone touchdown and overall yardage production for the prolific quarterback.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

After two straight Superbowl appearances, the NFC South is coming up faster than that lady from The Leftovers and this past season of Fargo.  Yes, I know her name is Carrie Coon, I didn’t have to google it, and she’s become my favorite actress.  Some of you already know that I think that the Leftovers is the best show ever made, but I’m also impressed that Fargo was able to pull off another good season for the third straight year.  Fargo has a built-in setting, but coming up with a different cast, story line, and ending every year and doing it well blows my mind.  To put it in perspective it only took a second season for True Detective to suck at the same format.  Well, I guess it didn’t “suck”, the acting was awesome.  I’m one of the few who bought into Vince Vaughn in his role.  The story was a snoozer, I can’t defend that part.

Before we get into our second division preview, be sure to check out Zach’s preview of the AFC East.  Zach will be covering the AFC while I cover the NFC.  Also, we must rejoice that Jay has returned to give you his rankings and predictions for the 2017 season.  Zach and I are going to try and record a podcast every week to get you ready for the football season.  We plan on having a few surprise guests, but most of it will just be us two talking shop.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Folks, it is already June and we are within double digit days from the regular season.  When you’re in a dynasty league, the season never ends.  I’ve been thinking about the 2017 season for my dynasty team since the day after week 16 ended.  I guess that I’m like Bill Belicheck with four fewer titles.  I may have won the championship, but I was 3 weeks behind everybody else in the fantasy football offseason.  I’m just joking (kind of), that would be a bit obsessive.

Before I get into a few stand out players, I have just a little bit of house keeping.  Zach and I started a podcast called Razzblitz and it’s really easy to find.  If you subscribe to the Razzcast on iTunes or whatever app you download podcasts on, our podcast will be on that thread.  Or, if you just click on the football side of the Razzball blog, our podcast will be up as posts as well.  Zach and I want to provide you with as much fantasy knowledge as possible and keep each episode pretty digestible time-wise while doing so.  We have two up so far this off season with Episode 3 and beyond coming soon…

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At some point, we’re going to get old. Technically, some of us are already there (children of the 80’s unite!). Okay, we’re not that old, but age is probably subjective anyways. And before I give myself an existential crisis, the point I’m trying to make is that Fantasy Sports might be one of those things that don’t have a shelf life. But this season has made me question that conclusion more than usual. I mean, sure, there are things we can do to spice up the experience. Like Craigslist and sex, maybe we’d pay attention more if money is involved, thus, the evolution of money leagues. DFS is, of course, an offshoot. But with NFL’s noticeable ratings drop this year, talk of rearranging when commercials are shown (haha, dream on), the retiring of Thursday Night Football (naw, Jags vs. Titans is always a good idea!) have been some of the things discussed internally. But time is a flat circle, maaaaaaan, so I wouldn’t expect much of anything the NFL does to change. The officiating has been garbage, the penalties for celebrations is an infringement on my right to not eye-roll infinitely. And really, whatever that was on Sunday Night Football last night, which was flexed!… It’s almost as if they aren’t even trying. (Can’t quite tell if I’m talking about the NFL or the Panthers.) The Chargers lost, but I think you already knew that based on this lede, but that doesn’t mean I can’t be mopey. What’s that? Westworld won’t be back on until 2018? Okay. Time to burn this motherf*cker down!

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National Football League, we’ve got a lot of problems with you, and now you’re going to hear about it. In no particular order, when did the NFC North become the new AFC South? With the NFC East being a pretty good division again, does that mean I have to start wearing my 90’s flannel shirts? And should we all get concussions? Afterall, according to you, it’s not just a concussion, it’s a cancussion. Why is it, that amidst your “Salute to Service” Sunday, that you don’t mention that the taxpayers fund all the lavish patriotism we see every Sunday? What is a catch? It’s like the only thing that’s ever stayed a controversy in football since I was a kid. That, and John Elway probably being a secret horse in disguise. In fact, here was the first official NFL rules committee meeting to define what exactly a catch was. But most of all (just in the context of yesterday, because why trap yourself, ya know?), I’m so confused on how the Seahawks actually won. (Note: It’s weird to watch a game where you end up screaming in agony when anything good happens for either team.) Admittedly, I’m not so much confused on how they actually won, that’s pretty straightforward; it was some combination of an overrated New England defense getting exposed, mixed with big nights from Russell Wilson (25/37, 348 YDS, 9.4 AVG, 3 TD, 124.6 RTG and 3 CAR, 6 YDS) and C.J. Prosise (17 CAR, 66 YDS, 3.9 AVG, 10 LONG and 7 REC, 87 YDS, 12.4 AVG, 38 LONG, 7 TGTS). But how the Seahawks could win in such a karmaic (word?) fashion… I mean, talk about sh*tty calls for the last four plays of the game, almost seems familiar. Almost like it’s happened before… And I’m sure the Boston media will have a field day talking about how the “non-call” on Gronk was a crime against humanity, a genocide they’ll say! Well, if he didn’t do such a great job blocking into the endzone on a run play to Blount that should have been the call, they might have had a case. In the mean time, I wouldn’t worry to much about Patriots “nation” forming a protest to go against the result, mainly because they probably think “genocide” has something to do with the Jets…

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When I saw that Jay Ajayi (28 CAR, 214 YDS, 7.6 AVG, 1 TD, 53 LONG and 1 REC, 2 YDS, 2.0 AVG, 2 LONG, 1 TGTS) broke the 200-yard rushing barrier yesterday, I assumed it was a career-total type of thing… I mean, what kind of timeline have we been transported to where something like this could happen? We went from:s: It’s Arian Foster, it’s Jay Ajayi, it’s I think I’ll take a pass, to whatever we call this. Arian Foster (3 CAR, 5 YDS, 1.7 AVG, 3 LONG and 1 REC, 4 YDS, 4.0 AVG, 4 LONG, 3 TGTS) is probably safe to ignore now (though I might hold if possible, just because the Dolphins are a weird team that does weird things whenever they can). So now, one has to tackle (see what I did there?) the possibility that we’re seeing Devonta Freeman 2.0. True, the Bills probably wouldn’t be able to tackle Rex Ryan standing still if they tried yesterday, and yeah, the Steelers run defense has somehow morphed into the Colts run defense from the 00’s (zeroes or oh’s?… I have no idea), and that shows up in the numbers: Ajayi has broken as many tackles on 54 handoffs over the last two weeks (13) as Ezekiel Elliott has on 148 touches this entire season. But it’s hard to ignore two 200-yard games in a row, even with caveats. Only three other players have done that: O.J. Simpson, Earl Campbell, and Ricky Williams. Granted, you probably want to most be like Cambell here, in terms of the law (Simpson) and career longevity (Williams). Don’t kill people and get high, maaaaan… But how do we really know that this is legitimate? Well, since the majority of us didn’t see Freeman’s 2015, we can certainly see some similar parallels with Ajayi forming. In 2014, Freeman was one of the top running backs in the draft (like Ajayi was in 2015), and as a rookie for the Falcons, he was relegated to third string duty, totaling just 65 rushes and 30 catches the entire year. He was unspectacular, and his potential finally forgotten en masse when Tevin Coleman was drafted. The exact same could be said with Ajayi last year, as Lamar Miller’s presence limited him to just 187 total rushing yards and 11 catches. And then, Kenyan Drake was drafted and Arian Foster was signed. While it’s hard to say if Ajayi can sustain RB1 numbers for an Adam Gase and Clyde Christensen run offense that has never drawn up a sh*tty play that they didn’t love and do over and over again, it’s certainly apparent that when you make the lazy comparison that Jay Ajayi is the next Devonta Freeman, it might actually turn out to be right. And then you find yourself wondering, can Devonta effing Freeman be the next Jay Ajayi?… And then you wonder how the NFC West didn’t win a game yesterday, even though the Seahawks and Cardinals played against each other… and then you wonder why your head hurts so much.

Please, blog, may I have some more?