Fantasy Football Advice

Brandon Gibson - Gibson was a guy on my list last week after receiving nine targets as a result of Burton’s season ending injury and now he is back on after receiving a monstrous 17 targets on Sunday.  Only Welker was targeted more often than Gibson though Welker did much more with his targets; he caught 15 passes for 192 yards compared to Gibson’s five catches for 61 yards.  However, despite Gibson’s touchdown drop which cost his team a chance at overtime, his sheer number of targets over the last two games has been staggering.  In fact, Gibson has amassed 26 targets over the past two games compared to teammate Donnie Avery who only has 14 targets in his last three.  Here is a short list of players who have fewer targets in the last three games than Gibson has had in his last two: Jennings, Sims-Walker, Driver, Burleson, Ochocinco, Boldin, Vincent Jackson, and Marques Colston.  On paper Gibson looks like filet mignon at the Golden Corral compared to his waiver wire friends, but before you get a half a Snickers bar in your pants remember that the one throwing him the rock is none other than…KYLE BOLLER! @#$%.

Mohammed Massaquoi - Vowel master Massaquoi is another repeat offender on the targets list after a four week hiatus.  Honestly, who would have thought the Brown eyes were capable of scoring 37 points?  Regardless, Massaquoi continued his trend of being the most heavily targeted Browns receiver on Sunday, receiving 12 targets, hauling in five for 115 yards and one touchdown.  It’s nice to see Massaquoi being productive, partly because I have owned him for the past five weeks, but also because he is clearly the most talented receiver on the beleaguered Browns offense.  I’d like to say that Quinn has found his niche and that niche is Massaquoi, but perhaps we should see how he handles the Bengals this weekend (who have given up the 7^th most passing yards this year) before making any Earth shattering, outrageous claims.  Either way, Massaquoi is worth picking up if you have room on your roster.

Earl Bennett – yet another widely available guy with promise going forward who has been on this list before.  Bennett was and always will be second to the target hogging Hester, as he received seven targets to Hester’s ten last week.  However, despite the fewer number of targets, Bennett faired better statistically, catching five passes for 57 yards compared to Hester’s four catches for 18 yards.  Bennett actually leads the Bears in yards per catch (12.8) and he continues to maintain some consistency in a Bears offense that has no choice but to throw the ball, though often to the opposing team.  Over the last four weeks, Bennett is averaging over four catches and 52 yards per game.  The only problem with Bennett is that he is allergic to peanuts and touchdowns.  Well I don’t know if he is allergic to peanuts but I’m pretty sure he is allergic to touchdowns since he has not scored one all year.  Bennett could be a viable option down the road as the Bears face the Vikings, Rams, Packers, Ravens, and Lions the rest of the regular season who are 25^th, 21^st, 7^th, 17^th, and 31^st in passing yards given up respectively.

Pierre Garcon - I’ll admit that a few weeks ago I compared Garcon to Collie and claimed that Collie was a bit safer to start, especially in PPR leagues.  However, Garcon has been dominating the targets and finished only one shy of Wayne last week with nine.  Garcon also had two red zone targets (as many as Wayne) while Collie only managed one target the entire game, turning it into an 18 yard catch.  Garcon finished the game with six catches for 108 yards and over the last four games Garcon is averaging four catches for 68 yards and has scored one touchdown.  Over that same span, Collie is averaging four receptions for 37 yards.  Over the last three weeks, Garcon ranks 12^th among receivers in total targets and has actually caught up to Wayne in that category; Garcon has 30 to Wayne’s 34 and has five red zone targets to his seven, respectively over the last three weeks.  For now, it seems that though Collie and Garcon have their place in the elite Colt offense, the French fireball currently has the hot hand.

Mario Manningham - Super Mario has reemerged over the past two games, recording 17 targets to the seemingly favored Nicks’ 13.  Last week Manningham led the team with 11 targets (Smith had 8, Nicks had 7).  Over the last two weeks, Manningham seems to have won back favor by hanging on to the ball and he is averaging six catches for 88 yards, the highest statistical average on the team (Smith 6/63, Nicks 4/52).  Manningham is still available in around 20% of all leagues and could play an important role in the Giants’ upcoming games against Dallas, Philadelphia, and Washington.

Jeremy Maclin - Maclin has been a target machine over the last three weeks, compiling 28 which are leaps and bounds above the likes of Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston, and Mike Sims-Walker.  He has also been productive with those targets, averaging five catches for 58 yards over the last two games and six receptions for 70 yards and a touchdown over the last two.  Though Jackson is clearly the big play guy, Maclin is surely getting his share of looks and with Westbrook out his value only increases.  Look for Maclin to continue to improve on his already daunting pace and he could be a good guy to pick up before the trade deadline as the Falcons, Giants, and Niners are amongst Philly’s remaining opponents.

Lance Long - though he had a rough day on Sunday, only managing three targets (the fewest amongst KC receivers), I believe he is still a good sleeper pick as he has been productive over the last three weeks.  Over that span, Long is 2^nd behind Bowe in targets (18) and is averaging four receptions for 43 yards.  It’s tough to tell who is going to get the ball in this offense but with Bowe out, look for either Chambers or Long to emerge.  Long has great promise and I even like him a bit more than Chambers in PPR leagues.

Useful Target Trends

1) Ravens receiver targets over the past three weeks

-Mason 34

-all other receivers combined 13

2) Bengals receiver targets over the past three weeks

-Ochocinco 23

-Coles 22

3) Calvin Johnson is 6^th in receiver targets over the last three weeks with 34

4) Davone Bess is 16^th in receiver targets over the last three weeks with 27

5) Notable players in the top 15 for red zone targets over the last three weeks

-Robert Meachem (4)

-Jeremy Maclin (4)

-Bernard Berrian (5)

-Josh Morgan (5)

-Pierre Garcon (5)

Since trading has ended we have decided to cut our Buy/Sell list. We will resume it at the beginning of the 2010 season.  Be sure to stay tuned to the “Comments” section below because we continually update injury status changes, etc. all the way up to game time. And as always we answer your start/sit quandaries.

Matchup Savers

Quarterback:

Mark Bulger – The Rams could get completely blown out in this contest. This should be a classic case of junk time production from Bulger.

Matthew Stafford – This could be a big week for this emerging quarterback. You know Calvin Johnson is anxious to have a productive outing after all the adversity he’s been through this year; it’d be nice to see him finish strong.

Josh Freeman – You have to imagine the Bucs are going to get blown out in this game. That could lead to some big production for Freeman in Fantasy. The odds of him throwing interceptions are higher too but the yardage/touchdown possibilities should outweigh that. (more…)

Lance Long: Matt Cassel likes Lance Long a lot. When the words Wes and Welker are whispered while weighing in on Lance Long’s longevity in this league it’s worth looking up from your lineup and placing him in your ppr league, and in your all porn name league.

Brian Westbrook: Andy Reid is positive that Westbrook will play.  McCoy and Westy will rotate like they have been this year so you can’t expect huge numbers, but San Diego is weak against the run.  I could see playing both, but I would play Westy over McCoy.

Donald Brown: He’s practiced all week and will resume vulturing Addai’s carries.  Until Brown clearly gains the edge on Addai you can’t really start him except in deep leagues and now Addai becomes harder to start because of Brown.  It’s kind of like an Algebra equation that equates to both Addai and Brown owners getting pissed.

Jamal Lewis: He’s been limited in practice due to cantankerous oldness.  He’ll play on Monday night. Great Monday night tilt huh?  Watching the Browns is akin to watching 3 hours of the Jeff Dunham Show.

Roddy White: He’s been limited in practice all week, but is still getting out there.  Not really sure what limited is supposed to mean.  When Roddy practices is it like a limited edition coin you see for sale at 2 am or is it like going to the limited to buy some clothes for your teenage daughter and learning that you do have suicidal tendencies?  Any way you look at it, Roddy is listed as questionable and will probably play. He has a tough matchup, but he’s pretty much an every week starter if he can get to the field on his own.

Chaz Schillens: The deep sleeper is finally going to play, but sadly he gets Jamarcus Russell as his quarterback.  Maybe if Russell is trying to throw it to Miller, Schillens will have a shot at catching the ball.  Any way you crack it, Oakland receivers are on fantasy death row.

Anquan Boldin: He looks to be healthy and going up against a suspect Seahawks’ defense at home. Start ‘em if you got ‘em.

Darren McFadden: He’s back this week and gets a horrible Chiefs defense at home.  What does this mean?  Well, I’m not sure.  He probably won’t get the start and if he comes in and runs a couple no-gainers we may not see him again, but if he comes in and rips off a decent run we could see him a lot.  Is this clear enough for you?! I have him in a deep league and am throwing him out there.  I can’t say I’m overflowing with optimism though.

Clinton Portis: There is speculation that Portis could be out for a goodly portion of the season.  Yes, it’s a word.  There’s even a chance they might sit him down for the duration.  That’s purely speculation on the part of Washington sports writers and if he gets healthy I’m sure he’ll get back in there, but they will be very careful with him and I could easily see him sitting for 3-4 weeks. The Redskins don’t have a very good schedule (or a non-racist name) and Ladell Betts is a little banged up so there doesn’t look like any clear winners right now.  If you are in a huge league and need a warm body at RB you can grab Rock Cartwright, and he will be a good addition to your all porn name team.

Kenny Britt: He’s got some home run capabilities and Justin Gage has a broken back so Britt will be in there, but against the Bills secondary.  I’m not going crazy and picking him up, but if you have room he has a nice matchup against Houston next week. Oh, and Gage should be back in about three weeks.  Broken backs aren’t all their cracked up to be nowadays.

Terrell Owens: He hurt his hip while sleeping on his couch.  He’s a game time decision, but even against a poor Miami secondary he’s barely a #3 wide receiver in deep leagues. Yeah, and he hurt his hip, while sleeping on his couch.

DeAngelo Williams: He was seen walking without a limp for whatever that’s worth. I don’t know, maybe a buck fifty.  He’ll be a game time decision, but his matchup is too good not to sit at your computer refreshing the Razzball comments over and over until we post if he’ll play or not.  Oh, and if he goes, start him.  And if he doesn’t play you have to get Stewart in there.  I’m imploring you!

Derrick Ward: He didn’t practice on Friday and is questionable with a knee injury.  I had a little hope for him after he showed some chemistry with Josh Freeman in the passing game, but he can’t seem to stay healthy.  Cadillac actually has looked pretty good and seems to be running hard so if Ward doesn’t go I’d feel comfortable starting Caddy.

Bernard Berrian: He is still hurting even after the bye week.  That isn’t a great sign.  I’m thinking this won’t be the best weekend at Bernie’s.

The Chiefs only gave Jamaal Charles 9 touches when they should have given him 99.  Haley gave too many looks to Smith and Savage which just seems ignorant.  Smith was just activated and Savage hasn’t done anything.  Charles has shown he can run in the NFL so hey, I’ve got a good idea, let’s just give these other schmohawks a chance to ruin any chance for the offense to get in a rhythm. What happens from here depends on what the plan is for LJ.  Time to sit and wait.  And fume.

Clinton Portis was knocked unconscious early in the game which gave Ladell Betts the chance to get some work and be productive with nearly 100 total yards and a touchdown.  There is a good chance that they will hold Portis out next week against Denver as well as Jim Zorn and Doug Williams may also come out of retirement.  Pick up Ladell Betts if you need a running back that might see more than 15 touches.

Chris Chambers: He caused some buzz in the 4th quarter by grabbing two TD passes.  Could this be the start of something special? If “special” means one hit wonder, then yes. You can pick him up because he is the #2 receiver now, but I wouldn’t waste a high priority on him.

Alex Smith: He looked okay at times and horrible most of the time. He threw 46 passes which means Singletary has some weird deluded confidence in him.  I want to throw him back into the scrap heap of busted #1 picks, but I’m going to stick it out for now.  And when I say stick it out, well, you know.

Brandon Pettigrew: He has the skills to be a consistent tight end, but is still a rookie and has a rookie QB.  He’s worth gambling on if you are playing Russian roulette with tight ends anyway, but don’t get all giddy over his 7 receptions, 70 yards and a TD against the Seahawks.

Vernon Davis: The bust has gone and busted out into a huge fantasy tight end.  10 catches for 102 yards is starting to look near to normal for VD. I don’t see Alex Smith getting benched anytime soon so be glad you have Davis.  If someone wants to sell high on him and you need a TE, take them up on it.

LenDale White: He may have lost weight, but seems a lot heavier because of all that dead weight.  Dump him in the free agency pool.

DeAngelo Williams: He’s just too fast and too good and now John Fox is finally running like he means it.  Delhomme is just too bad and too not good that they need to keep the ball on the ground to have a chance.  Be glad you have Williams.

Julius Jones: He’s not very good, but he’ll do something once in a while.  He’s on pace for over 1,000 yards.  Justin Forsett is the third down back, but Jones is still getting the majority of the touches.  He is what we thought he was.  No need to crown his ass.

Marques Colston: He had some drops and Meachem and Henderson got most of the numbers.  Colston is still the only safe play out of the Saints’ wide receivers week to week.  If someone is worried about this game, take Colston away from them because they don’t deserve him.

Calvin Johnson: Megatron is still a top 5 wide receiver talent, but if you own him you aren’t thinking that right now! Stafford needs to at least get the ball close to him so he can make his other worldly catches.  I’m still buying no matter how long it’s been since he has shown he can be fantasy relevant!

LaDainian Tomlinson: It’s been said over and over, LT is done.  He is still getting looks which gives him some value, but at this point Julius Jones is outplaying him.

Anquan Boldin: He was inactive while the Cardinals humiliated the Bears and was none too happy about it.  He called out his coach for not being man enough to tell him beforehand.  I don’t think any of that really matters though.  The Cardinals have the easiest schedule against the pass for the rest of the season so this is a perfect time to go after Boldin.  He probably could have played, but now with a week off he should be able to go and give you good numbers going forward.

Lance Long: He had 8 receptions for 74 yards against the Jags.  If the Chiefs stick with this pass first mentality and use Charles ala Westbrook, we could see Long being useful out of the slot in ppr leagues. Oh, and his name is Lance Long, which is cool.

Josh Freeman: He only completed 14 passes, but made them count with 3 of them going for touchdowns in beating what should have been the better Packer team.  Freeman looked like a live body out there, but he’s not going to be worth a start anytime soon because he is just too erratic.

Carson Palmer: He didn’t have a huge fantasy game, but he looked good.  He has a decent playoff schedule and probably could be had a little cheaper than your top tier QB’s.  I’d target him if you’re running Ryan or someone even more schmoful out there.

Ronnie Brown: Two down games for Brown while Williams grabs TD’s may give you a shot at trading for him. I know it seems like RB is getting all his toys taken away from him, but I think Sparano is going to correct that trend.  Brown is the best player on their team and it is obvious when watching him run.

Greg Olsen: He probably won’t catch three touchdowns in a game for the rest of his career. The Bears were getting embarrassed and were throwing it often.  Even Earl Bennett had 90+ yards.  See if you can sell high on Olsen.

Steve Slaton and Ryan Moats: If you own either you can’t be very happy with Sunday’s results.  Moats was the “feature” back while Slaton got the 3rd down looks.  Slaton got into the end zone and didn’t fumble while Moats got in the end zone and did, but that didn’t seem to change much.  They are both going to be spot flex starts at best until one of them asserts himself.

Beanie Wells: 13 carries for 70 yards in a backup role once again to Hightower.  Remember his schedule and his ability.  All signs point to him not sucking the second half of the season.

Chad Ochocinco: He tried to bribe the ref with a dollar.  I’m thinking his meds need to be upped.