Fantasy Football Advice

If dynasty teams subsisted on illegal drugs:

Uppers

Joe Flacco: His stock has risen substantially with the acquisition of Anquan Boldin and the reupping of Derrick “old man” Mason.  Donte Stallworth could prove to be helpful as well, but I’m reserving judgment for now.  Also having one of the top pass catching running backs in Ray Rice also doesn’t hurt.  Flacco had a hip injury last season that slowed him down after a hot start.  The question for dynasty owners is, will the Ravens change their strategy from run first and play hard defense to pass first and play little to no defense?  The way the money is now being funneled it’s hard not to see them throwing more next season.  Cam Cameron knows how to throw the ball, or at least how to tell others to thrown the ball.  It’s hard to imagine the unibrowed one throwing for 4k yards and 25+ TD’s, but it’s looking more and more like a possibility.

Larry Johnson: He was signed by the Redskins which unfortunately means he could become their starter unless they grab somebody, anybody! Clinton Portis will probably go into the season as the starter if he can stay healthy through training camp, which is a monumental if.  Portis of course had the concussion problem last season, but maybe more importantly, he had about 37 injured body parts.  We could see a fairly split backfield to start the season to keep Portis upright, but eventually LJ will probably have to take over.  All this is to say he is a possible starter, which is meaningful in fantasy, but he still ain’t good.

Jamaal Charles: Yes, I pushed him down a few spots in my redraft rankings, but I’m leaving him where he is in the dynasty rankings.  You can see my thoughts on Tom Jones coming to town, but the reason I have him taking uppers is his perceived value has fallen more than his actual value.  It might be a good time to try to trade one of your aging backs for him.  Steven Jackson maybe?

Downers

Derrick Mason: With his age he wasn’t a high dynasty pick, but he is so steady that it was worth the possible 2 more years of 80 receptions and 1,000 yards, but now with Anquan Boldin on board his stock is falling quickly.  He might be had at some value late, but with his age and role shrinking, his upside is going down side.

Wes Welker: It was revealed that Welker also has a torn rotator cuff.  It should heal by the time his knee is healed, but yet another body part that could have a set back.  He should drop a couple slots in the dynasty rankings and even further in the redraft rankings.  Which means Edelman could get a little booster shot.

Chad Henne: His future is still bright, but I was expecting the Dolphins to get Boldin or Bryant and both have signed with teams not named after a water dwelling mammal.  They will once again be run first and second and then bring in Pat White to run the wildcat unless we see a move that doesn’t look to be in the works right now.

I can tell you I usually only watch snippets of most football games, but I watched that whole 99 yard game winning drive by Vince Young and it was neato.  I was impressed by Young’s arm and not just his ability to run.  He’s won 9 straight over the past 5 years or so and he’s making a case to get into fantasy lineups.  He is definitely worth a pickup if you’ve been running schmohawks out there on a consistent basis.  I grabbed him in a league I have Garrard and Alex Smith in.  If I owned Cutler I’d be grabbing whoever has a pulse.

Jay Cutler: So he’s averaging 2 picks a game, he has no offensive line and he’s a bit of a wuss.  He needs a line like Denver’s to give him time and security because when he is pressured he starts dancing and doesn’t set his feet to throw and then the ball goes wherever, usually into a defender’s hands. He gets the lowly Rams next week so it’s hard not to start him, but you don’t have to be happy about it.

Marshawn Lynch: Still stuck in Least Mode he has been passed by Fred Jackson, and got whiplash watching it happen. Marshawn isn’t really worth having on your team unless you want Fred Jackson’s backup; what was that guy’s name again?

Matt Forte: Three touchdowns in 11 games equals .2727272727 . . . touchdowns a game.  That looks like a big number, but really it isn’t.  All you math majors can explain it to the others.  So yeah, Matt Forte is usable in ppr leagues, but otherwise the #4 overall adp was a bit optimistic.

Percy Harvin: It wasn’t hard for Viking receivers to have decent games against the Bears yesterday, but Harvin just keeps putting together solid games. He’s high in the rookie of the year voting for good reason, but I’m putting all my money on Heyward-Bey.  Al Davis has never steered me wrong.

Chris Chambers: I didn’t think he was going to be worthwhile ever again.  He looked slow and barely worth avoiding with your car, but he keeps putting fantasy worthy games out there.  Denver will be tough next week, but if you are hurting in WR depth and he’s still around, scoop him up; hopefully before he becomes road kill.

Matt Leinart: He didn’t look horrible, but he can’t seem to throw the ball deep (sorry Fitz).  If you own Warner you really need to grab him.  Concussions, as we’ve heard a lot recently, are nothing to play with and Warner is old enough to have grand kids, so just play it safe.

Brett Favre: Good Lord Favre!, this guy must have sold his soul to Jerry Jones.  I’ve never seen a better fit than Favre and the Vikings.  It took him about 2 games to get comfortable and start dominating.  If someone pinned me down and grabbed a sweaty jock strap and told me they’d make me eat it if I didn’t tell them who I thought was the best team I’d say the Vikings, and then I’d say all you had to do was ask! Jeez.

Kenny Britt: 7 receptions for 128 yards and a game winning catch move him up your waiver priority.  Young seems to like Britt and he is showing that he’s the best receiver on the team.  Justin Gage might need to file for unemployment.

Jamaal Charles: Right now he is my Most Valuable Free Agent Pick Up (MVFAPU).  The Razzball favorite is leading many teams down the stretch.  He totaled 147 yards and had a TD and had a decent run back or two for you freaks in return yardage leagues. You can thank us by sending all cash donations in care of Doc at Razzball HQ, Razzballia USA.

Justin Forsett: Another great game from Forsett should knock Julius Jones into the background. He’s not on your waiver wire, and if he is, your league depresses me.

Chris Johnson: Picture me doing a fake yawn, yes, another ho hum 186 total yards and a touchdown.  What’s that, his 10th 85 yard run this season? He’s on pace for over 2,000 yards rushing and 15 touchdowns.  That’s slightly above average.

LaDainian Tomlinson: He’s getting pretty lucky with all the goal line looks he’s had.  Can’t really knock him for that, but he hasn’t had a 100 yard game in long while.  He’s worth getting out there for his TD potential, but he can easily have a down game if he doesn’t get across the goal line.

Antonio Bryant: If he can stay healthy he can help you down the stretch. Freeman is locking onto Winslow and Bryant and making both of them viable fantasy players. I may be a little biased since Bryant won me leagues last year, but he can be an elite receiver under the right circumstances.  Since these aren’t the right circumstances, he can be a workable #3.

Larry Johnson: He ran for over 100 yards and Bernard Scott got dinged up, but Cedric Benson should come back next week. He could take over Scott’s spot, but I’m not picking him up unless I’m really hurting at RB.  Remember, they were playing the Browns who lost Shaun Rogers during the game. My arthritic great aunt Melba could rack up 100 yards on them.  No, she’s not a cracker!

Michael Turner: Well, gotta call the Falcons stupid for this one.  There was no reason to rush Turner back with Snelling and Norwood ready to go.  Turner reinjured his ankle, but we don’t have any real news yet.  Snelling should still be the starting back, but Norwood will get a pretty big role as well. Turner will have to show me he’s healthy before I recommend starting him again. There’s an old saying in Tennessee — I know it’s in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can’t get fooled again.

Matt Ryan: He hurt his foot. We won’t know how bad for a while, but hopefully you listened to us and traded him for a case of peeps and a half eaten Sanchise Dog.

Desean Jackson: Another concussed Eagle for fantasy players to worry about. There is a good chance he’ll be on the sidelines next week.  The Eagles already got Westbrook knocked out twice and if it happens to DJax they’ll never hear the end of it.  If he does sit Jason Avant will be a nice pickup.

Rock Cartwright: Hmmm, I guess there was a reason he was the third string running back.

Terrell Owens: Well, he may make a believer of me yet.  I hate to say good things about The egO, but he is playing like he has something to prove, which he does.  It’s not like you can pick him up, but these last two games look like a trend.  Get him in your lineups.

Game (Day) Theory: Sleeper Math Week 11

Formula:

Rating = Amount of Talent (Individual + Team Support) + Opportunity

Greetings Razzballers! We have come to the end of the trading season in Fantasy Football. This week is the last opportunity to move players and shuffle your roster in almost all leagues. So I will shift this column to align with what’s happening in Fantasy.

Beginning next week I will eliminate Tier’s I and II other than occasionally pointing out players I think are due for improvement or regression, just for kicks. Instead I will focus on Tier III players who are likely to be out there and available to claim on waivers or pick up via free agency.

At the beginning of next season I will once again resume Sleeper Math’s three tiered system because then you can actually make trades to grab those players. As an aside I would like to let everyone know that the writer’s here at Razzball have been talking a lot about next season already. We will have very extensive pre-draft rankings, downloadable cheat sheets (for PPR and standard), and discuss the top sleepers quite extensively. We are also going to discuss keepers in the offseason.

Tier I

Drew Brees 20 (10+10) – I really wish he’d stop finding his way on to this list since I own him in my most competitive league. He just hasn’t delivered consistently but I love his chances of rebounding (combined with the cupcake schedule) going forward.

Marques Colston 18 (9+9) – Partner in crime and another player who keeps finding his way on to this list. I lust Colston for all the same reasons as Brees. If the price is right feel comfortable about pulling the trigger.

Calvin Johnson 18 (9+9) – I’m as sick of having to put him on this list as he is of being on it and you are reading about him. His second game back was better than the first. He didn’t re-injure anything so you have to think he’ll only get more healthy from here. Stafford’s health also continues to improve. Calvin’s projections for this week (at least in Yahoo) aren’t very good so this would be a nice final opportunity for you to get him on the cheap.

LeSean McCoy 18 (8+9) – He’s the only player to move all the way up from a Tier III Sleeper to Tier I guy. I don’t have an award for that but if I did he’d get it. Some people might question placing this much value on him but he’s the only horse in the stable in Philadelphia; it’s questionable whether or not Brian Westbrook will even play at all the rest of the season. It’s very possible that you’ll think you’re giving up too much to get him but in reality you’re still buying production on the cheap.

Tier II

Steve Slaton 16 (9+7) – He’s moved in the wrong direction the last few weeks. There are a lot of question marks about whether he or Ryan Moats is going to be the man going forward. The playoff schedule is a cakewalk and Slaton’s got boatloads of talent; I’d pay what his value is right now to get the upside.

Justin Forsett 15 (8+7) – He is slated to get the start for the upcoming week. Don’t be surprised if he becomes the full time starter. This past Sunday he tore it up for over 20 points. I see him as a double-digit contributor if he remains at the top of the depth chart. He doesn’t have the best matchup this week but after that there are some weak defenses coming his way.

Kevin Walter 15 (7+8) – in PPR. I’m just going to repeat what I said last week. This guy is still super undervalued and he could be a really nice flex starter for you in deeper leagues from here on out: “The Texans are a high powered offense and their passing game continues to be a strong source of Fantasy points. Walter is a poor man’s Wes Welker. In PPR that’s definitely a valuable asset to your team. Walter battled injuries earlier in the season but is getting more and more productive each week.”

Correll Buckhalter 15 (8+7) – For some reason he barely touched the football on Sunday. He did have a fumble early but I don’t see why McDaniel’s would strip him of opportunities entirely after that. It shouldn’t cost you that much to trade for him so I think he’s worth grabbing.

Tier III

Jason Snelling 15 (7+8) – In deeper leagues you should be using a waiver claim on him. Michael Turner might be out for multiple weeks; in fact it looks like he’s going to be despite the faux-optimism his coach is throwing out there.

Jerious Norwood 14 (7+7) – He was such a popular stash preseason, especially in PPR. Word on the street is he’s finally healthy. If that’s the case he could see some action while Turner’s out. Probably not worth a waiver claim but I’d snag him in free agency if there’s room.

Bernard Scott 14 (7+7) – Here’s what I said last week: “Cedric Benson is getting a ridiculous amount of carries right now. He has shown no signs of breaking down but you have to wonder how he’s going to hold up late in the season. Scott is a really nice stash in case he goes down.” I can’t say it any better this week.

Larry Johnson 13 (7+6) – I question whether or not Larry Johnson will step in there and start in Cincinnati right away. Unless Marvin Lewis announces otherwise I’m sticking with Bernard Scott as my recommendation for the player likely to hang on to the starting gig. He’s still worth stashing if on free agency, however.

Maurice Morris 14 (8+6) – Another week, another poor performance by Kevin Smith. The reports on him continue to get more and more negative. When Morris has gotten a chance he’s done really well. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Lions get fed up with Smith’s ineffectiveness and give Morris a shot.

Rashad Jennings 13 (8+5) – The gauntlet of injuries to stud running backs this past Sunday reminds us all that any player can go down at any time. Jennings really has no one competing with him for touches should something happen to Pocket Hercules. Stash away if you have space.

Danny Ware 13 (7+6) – What’s not to love? Jacobs and Bradshaw are sitting in front of him- both are big time injury concerns. That offensive line will create opportunities for him if he gets his chance.

You can follow us on twitter: @Razzball_Drew, @mgeoffriau, @Razzball

Ahmad Bradshaw has been running on a split hoof and it could crack wide open at any moment.  Do you think this means he’ll get more work? Me neither.  I can’t say he’ll get less work, but Jacobs has been running better than earlier in the season and they’ll want to be careful with Bradshaw.  If I had to make a wild guess, uh, prognostication, I’d say Jacobs is the one to own. He could get hurt at anytime, which would then end up getting Bradshaw hurt, and then we’ll all be scrounging around for Danny Ware; which, if you have room you could start scrounging now.

Calvin Johnson: We finally may get to see our old pal Megatron back on the field this Sunday.  Nothing is for sure, and I’ve heard good and bad things about his status.  He’s a game time decision, but if he goes you have to get him in there.  A gimpy Megatron against the Rams is like a one testicled Lance Armstrong against my cousin in, well, just about any sport.  He’s 6.

Andre Johnson: Kubiak pronounced AJ ready to go and AJ also said they’d have to amputate his leg to keep him out of the game. I bet Ronnie Lott would have played without his leg, come on AJ, suck it up! He’s facing a decent Buffalo secondary, but nobody puts AJ in a corner, unless of course they’ve amputated his legs and arms and needed to prop him up somewhere. (more…)

A broken fibula seems like it might not be that bad.  I mean fibula, it’s like a tiny lie or something, right?  Well, whatever it is, Leon Washington is done for the season.   I had high hopes for Washington and it’s sad to see him go, but life goes on so drop his ass for the guy that follows or the guy that follows that guy.

Shonn Greene: Greene went off for 144 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Raiders. He showed promise in preseason, but wasn’t used at all during the season in the crowded backfield with Leon Washington and Thomas Jones. Now that Washington has taken his leave Greene gets a shot to split time with Tom Jones. Jones will continue to be the lead act so don’t expect games like this to come along often, but he is a must add.

Beanie Wells: Beanie has slowly been getting more responsibilities and last night he earned his allowance by compiling 67 yards and a TD while getting ten more carries than Hightower. Hightower isn’t going to sail off into the sunset since he is still needed for blocking and pass catching, but expect Whisenhunt to go to the Wells more and more.  If he was dropped in your league pick him up and laugh at whoever dropped him (even if it is you). (more…)