Fantasy Football Advice

Last week I included a little “What to Watch” question with each game. I started to do the same this week, then I realized that I would mostly be watching the same thing in each game — will the team that had a first round bye week exhibit any signs of rust? Especially the passing games that rely on timing and game experience — will the QB’s be throwing behind crossing routes and overthrowing deep posts?

Saturday 4:30 EST

Arizona @ New Orleans

What’s left to say about Kurt Warner? He’ll occasionally take too many risks against a good pass defense, but then we thought Green Bay was a good pass defense, and he shredded them. Boldin is more likely to play this week, but his presence may actually hurt the available fantasy value here — Breaston and Doucet excelled in Boldin’s absence, but if he plays a significant portion of the game, the looks will be spread out more. Fitzgerald remains a top option. Other than Darren Sharper’s ball-hawking skills, the Saints’ secondary hasn’t been great in the last half of the season, so expect another shootout.

ARI: Warner +1, Fitzgerald +1, Boldin -1, Breaston -1 (+1 if Boldin sits), Doucet 0

The question here, of course, is the same question that applies to any of the teams that enjoyed a Round 1 bye. How rusty will Drew Brees and the Saints’ offense be after taking a full 2 weeks off? The Cardinals defense certainly didn’t shut Aaron Rodgers down, so at least the Saints don’t have a tough matchup. And, those 2 weeks should be enough for players to recover from most minor injuries. Coming in rested and healthy could be a factor against a team that played an overtime game last week.

NO: Brees +1, Colston +1, Meachem +1, Henderson 0, Shockey 0

Saturday 8:15 EST

Baltimore @ Indianapolis

Yeesh. When a team is so committed to (and successful at) running the ball, it makes it hard to rely on their passing game. I think the Colts defense is in much better shape than the Patriots were last week, so I think Flacco will have to pass more than 10 times, but still…it’s clear that the Ravens feel no compulsion to throw any more than they absolutely have to. Heap continues to have issues with his back, so I’d avoid him.

BAL: Flacco -2, Mason -2, Heap -2

Tough call here — the Ravens have been putting up excellent defensive numbers for the last half of the season, and repeatedly forced Brady to throw underneath for limited yardage. I don’t expect them to keep Manning in check like that, but it’s at best an average matchup for the Colts, and probably a mild downgrade is more realistic. My feeling is that Ed Reed will spend more time helping cover Wayne and Garcon and that there may be room for Dallas Clark to rack up some yardage.

IND: Manning -1, Wayne -1, Clark 0, Garcon 0, Collie 0

Sunday 1:00 EST

Dallas @ Minnesota

Romo is rolling right now, and unless Jared Allen and the Vikings line can put a lot more pressure on him than the Eagles did, I expect continued success. I was surprised that Witten wasn’t more involved last week. Miles Austin remains the clear #1 option. Roy Williams was decent but he’s too risky to rely on. Don’t forget that Crayton gets a little boost in return yardage leagues.

DAL: Romo +1, Austin +1, Williams 0, Crayton 0, Witten +1

Hard to argue against what the Vikings did in Week 17, but I’ll try — the Giants were getting worse each week and gave up on that game before it even started, and the Dallas defense has been steadily improving. We know that when Favre is unhurried, he can zing it with the best of them. I’m a believer in the Cowboy’s D-line, though, and I expect at least one or two mistakes from Favre. Slight downgrade.

MIN: Favre -1, Rice 0, Berrian -1, Harvin -1, Shiancoe 0

Sunday 4:40 EST

New York Jets @ San Diego

Cotchery isn’t a bad play in PPR formats, but apart from him, there isn’t much here. There’s basically 2 outcomes for Sanchez right now — failure (which looks like 100 yards and 2 or 3 int’s), or success (which looks like 160 yards with 1 TD and no picks). The difference between those 2 matters a lots to the Jets, but the upside is so limited for fantasy purposes that it’s better just staying away. Keller is a long-shot TE option just for his big play ability as evidenced last week, but don’t be surprised at a 2 catch, 28 yard week.

NYJ: Sanchez -1, Cotchery 0, Edwards -1, Keller 0

The unfortunate situation here is that V-Jax may just get erased by Revis. I don’t see any situation that doesn’t involve a serious cut in his production. Fortunately, Rivers still has Gates (who presents a huge matchup problem for the Jets), as well as Floyd, Naanee, Tomlinson, and Sproles. A mild downgrade just for losing V-Jax as a serious weapon, but don’t feel too bad about it.

SD: Rivers -1, Jackson -2, Gates +2, Floyd +1

The regular season is officially over!  Week 17 is always a bit yawnstipating at best, but we did have some interesting individual performances to follow and playoff implications to suss out. So we now know who’s in and who’s out and who bribed the Colts and Bengals and who choked against the Cowboys, and so on and so forth.

As we go through the playoffs we’ll take a look at the season we just finished while we also analyze the playoff matchups.  That’s what we like to call, multitaskalyzing.

Don’t forget to join us in our two playoff leagues: you can join our Sporting News playoff league, password Schmohawk and/or our playoff challenge at NFL.com

Chris Johnson: They ran him as much as we thought they would, but he just couldn’t get the big chunks of yardage he needed to push ED’s record (Erectile Dickerson).  He did become the 6th running back to reach 2,000 yards and the all-time leader in yards from scrimmage. It was an amazing season and I look forward to drafting him if I get the #1 pick next year.

Jamaal Charles: 259 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns are a Chiefs record which erases Leisure Suit Larry’s old record. If only Todd Haley would have erased Larry Johnson from the starting lineup in the beginning of the season!  I’ve run out of superlatives to heap onto Mr. Charles.  It’s a shame that he has now made it impossible to get him for any kind of value in your drafts next year, but it’s looking like he could be a value about anywhere you can get him.

Jerome Harrison: Eric Mangini hopefully will get fired for the way he has handled Harrison.  Harrison and James Davis were obviously better backs than the aged Jamal Lewis, but of course he kept starting him and even deactivated Harrison and then to top it all off he runs him into the ground to end the season.  I know it sounds like I’m talking out of both sides of my mouth here, but it is overkill to break a three game record for carries with Harrison just to save Mandingus’ job.  He may be overvalued next season, but I like him and his offensive line.

Tom Brady: Belichick never fails to amaze.  If you want to play your starters in a fairly meaningless game, I’m all for that, but why pull Brady in the 2nd quarter and then bring him back in and then pull him again when you are down one touchdown with a couple minutes on the clock?  The guy is so many steps ahead of everyone else that Welker’s injury was premeditated.

Wes Welker: Yeah, he’s done, along with his unbelievable season.  He tore his ACL and PCL which means he is SOL. Welker might not be ready for next season.  You’ll need to find another Dubya Dubya to fill his spot.

Julian Edleman: Well, he’s not a Dubya Dubya, but he’ll at least try to fill his spot. He had a good start by catching 10 passes for 103 yards. He might not be as fast, but he’s got a lot of scrap.  And scrap can’t be measured.  Unless it’s scrap metal, then they do it all the time.

Willis McGahee: 16 carries, 167 yards, and 3 touchdowns and it wasn’t Ray Rice? Ok, is the joke over?

Vernon Davis: He tied Antonio Gates touchdown record with 13 and ends the season just behind Dallas Clark or ahead of him depending on your scoring format.  After Mike Martz relegated him to blocking it sure didn’t look like this would ever happen, but he always had the talent.  Now he has the stats.  Stats plus talent equals stalent.

Jay Cutler: Cutler goes off in back to back games to finish the season.  We knew he always had the talent. Now he has the, oh nevermind, the guy can throw the ball, but his head ain’t screwed on too good. He needs another wide receiver. I vote for Malcolm Floyd, but I’m sure we’ll hear a lot about Marshall, Boldin and TO.

Fred Jackson: Fast Freddie also had over 200 yards rushing and a TD in a huge game against the Colts scrubs.  His future depends a lot on what the new coach does with Marshawn Lynch, but Jackson has proven that he can be the main back and if all signs are pointing to him remaining the guy he will go high in drafts next season.

Jabar Gaffney: Early on it looked like Josh McDaniels wanted to erase Brandon Marshall’s single game receptions record from the face of the earth, but Gaffney only ended up with 14 receptions and 213 yards, loser.

Devin Aromashodu: He finished the season with style and if he can win a job there is no reason to think he can’t be a productive player with Cutler throwing to him.  He’s no lock, but he has a chance as long as they realize Bennett and Hester aren’t much, which they aren’t.

Sidney Rice: Rice finished his breakout season with yet another big game. 112 yards and 2 touchdowns bring his account to 1,312 yards and 8 touchdowns from your waiver wire.

Malcolm Floyd: In a non-game Floyd finished with 9 catches and 140 yards.  There is no doubt that Floyd could put up good to great numbers if he becomes the #1 or #2 guy somewhere.  He’s a free agent this off season and should have quite a few teams vying for his services.

Thomas Jones: Over 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns; the guy just won’t stop.  He finished as the 5th best fantasy back and I will take my lumps for liking Leon Washington more than him.  Can he keep this up next year?  I can’t say for sure, but I will be much more cautious in my evaluation, no matter how old/slow he gets.

NFL WILD CARD WEEKEND SCHEDULE

Guys Worth a Look

1. Mike “who the @#$%” Thomas-which Jaguars receiver has the most targets over the last three weeks? Holt? Wrong. Sims-Walker? Wrong. Mike Thomas lead all Jags receivers in week 8 with seven targets, comprising 14% of all offensive looks. Holt weighed in with six targets and Sims-Walker a measly three. For the year, Holt leads the Jags receivers with 55 targets, Sims-Walker is second with 45, and Thomas is third with 30. However, over the past three games, Thomas has been consistent, yielding around 8.5 fantasy points in standard formats and leading the Jags with 17 targets. Thomas is one you want to grab as Holt is old and Sims-Walker has head case written all over him. He should be available in most leagues.

2. Johnny Knox-at this point in the year, the electrifying return man is not much of a secret, but the good news about Knox is he is developing some consistency in the offense. Over the last four games, Knox has two receiving touchdowns and is averaging about four receptions and 44 receiving yards per game over that span. He received 5 targets last week, second behind Hester, and looks to get more and more involved as the year goes on.

3. Sammie Stroughter-The only problem Sammie has (aside from being the only person in the country with the last name Stroughter) is that he plays for the Bucs. Out of the spotlight all year, Stroughter has emerged as a solid number two receiver for the hapless Bucs. My bold prediction is if the Bucs would simply choose which third rate quarterback to start, they could have a halfway decent offense. Williams runs hard, Ward is versatile, and Bryant is serviceable. Stroughter has actually been competitive with Bryant in terms of targets (eight to Bryant’s nine last game) and has averaged three receptions for 64 yards over the last two games. I wouldn’t tell you to waste a waiver claim lower than 10 on him, but he is one to keep an eye on.

4. Malcom Floyd-with Chambers out of dodge it is a safe bet to lock Floyd in as the number two receiver on a pass happy Chargers offense. While Jackson is clearly the one and only “stud” in the receiving core, Floyd has shown promise as a big play guy. Last week, Floyd had five targets (second behind Jackson) hauling in two passes for 64 yards. It should also be encouraging to know that Floyd was on the receiving end of a 53 yard reception and you know Rivers throws the deep ball like poor people buy lottery tickets.

5. Hakeem Nicks-over the last four games Nicks has put a chink in Manningham’s armor. Over that span, Nicks averaged four receptions for 74 yards and hauled in three touchdowns. In that same stretch, Manningham hauled in two touchdowns and had an average of three receptions for 44 yards. Also, it seems like Manningham leaves a big play on the field every week which I’m sure does not bode well with Giants coaches. Nicks had five targets last week and he looks like a safe bet as Eli’s #2 man, which arguably makes him a must play WR3 or flex option.

6. Percy Harvin-Harvin played Atari (Bigby) like he was a game of “Frogger.” In fact, Bigby looked like he was on the receiving end of a 2D Mac Truck as Harvin (the frog) escaped safely to the other side. For those of you too young to appreciate Atari, what I’m trying to say is Harvin is a stud. Therefore, he will not be available in most leagues. However, with The Vikes on a bye, look to trade with a desperate owner who needs to fill a slot in order to maintain a shot at the playoffs. The Vikings have been amorphous this year when it comes to figuring out who the number one receiver is. Up to this point in the season, Harvin has 54 targets, Rice has 56, and Berrian 49. However, over the last two games, Harvin has led all Viking receivers with 19 targets (Rice had 18, Berrian 9). The biggest difference between Harvin and the other receivers is clearly Harvin’s explosiveness. Harvin also has value as a runner in their wildcat formation and over the past four weeks, Harvin is averaging four receptions for 50 yards a game. In my opinion, of the three receivers, Harvin is the safest one to start week to week.

7. Jerricho Cotchery- Jerricho’s injury was certainly a kick to the Crotchery but those of you who were smart enough to hold on to him will now start to reap the benefits. Last week he was tied for targets with Braylon Edwards with nine, including a look in the red zone. Cotchery also reminded us of his big play capability as he hauled in a 53 yard reception and finished the game with three catches for 70 yards. In my opinion, Edwards increases Cotchery’s value because teams will no longer be able to stick their best corner on Cotchery and come over the top with a safety. Look for Cotchery’s role to increase and I would bet that if he stays healthy, he will be the most productive Jets receiver the rest of the year.

F.Y.I. Target Comparisons

Arizona-Boldin 6, Breaston 9

Seattle-Houshmandzadeh 6, Burleson 12

San Francisco-Morgan 2, Crabtree 9, Bruce 8

New Orleans-Colston 6, Henderson 6

Green Bay-Jennings 12, Driver 11, Jones 5

Detroit-Northcutt 5 (0 catches with 2^nd most receiver targets)

Buffalo-Evans 2, Reed 4

Formula:

Rating = Amount of Talent (Individual + Team Support) + Opportunity

Tier I

Jason Witten 17 (9+8) – I know that Miles Austin is catching everything in Dallas right now but there’s no way this pace continues. Think: Steve Smith, New York Giants. I still believe in Jason Witten and his track record.

Brian Westbrook 16 (8+8) – He’s still worth the gamble considering how low his value is. Concussions can be really tricky and he is injury plagued as it is but you have to love his ceiling still. If his owner thinks his value is anything even close to his ADP tell him/her to get lost.

Calvin Johnson 17 (9+8) – It’s disconcerting that his injury has lingered like this. All indications were that he was going to play this Sunday but he didn’t. I still like him as a 2^nd half of the season comeback player.

Anquan Boldin 16 (8+8) – Similar to the Calvin Johnson situation. Dude’s a warrior. Wants a new contract in the offseason. He played after having a broken face last season. The Cardinals have a cupcake Fantasy Playoff schedule. I’ll double down on Anquan.

Steve Slaton 16 (8+8) – What is Gary Kubiak thinking? I know Slaton’s been fumbling the ball all over the place but I don’t understand how you can go from exclusively featuring somebody to just yanking them out of the game entirely. There might be something else going on in Houston that we don’t know about yet. It’s just hard to believe that Slaton’s going to be sitting on the bench the rest of the season. Right now is a good time to capitalize on those fears.

Tier II

Jonathan Stewart 15 (8+7) – Big game on Sunday for this goal line back with 87 yards rushing and two touchdowns. He has been such a disappointment this season for fantasy owners but don’t be surprised if he has a solid 2^nd half of the season.

Jerricho Cotchery 15 (8+7) – He had a nice game on Sunday. I really like him from here on out to deliver value. He appeared very healthy on Sunday and it looks like the Jets were telling the truth when they said they just didn’t want to rush him back.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh 15 (8+7) – Doc talked about how easy the Seahawks have it down the stretch in terms of the passing defenses they’ll face.  I really like him as a second half Sleeper.

Malcolm Floyd 15 (7+8) – I’ve had Floyd on here as Sleeper in Tier III before but the Chargers made him a starter and they waived Chris Chambers. Their offense has been so solid all year; Floyd’s upside could be really huge. I can’t imagine he’s out there on waivers (if he is, grab him). See if you can make a cagey trade for him where you don’t give up a ton.

Jamaal Charles 15 (8+7) – Larry Johnson’s days in KC are all but numbered. Charles is another player that’s been a Sleeper Math veteran, always in Tier III. I am moving him up to Tier II because the word is out- everyone knows. Even so no one’s had a chance to see him play a game yet so there’s still a small (very, very small) window of opportunity for you to grab him in a trade.

Kevin Walter 15 (7+8) – With Owen Daniels out for the season Schaub is going to need a new target in the middle of the football field and on short to intermediate routes. Kevin Walter should see an increase in both targets and receptions from here on out.

Tier III

Ryan Moats 14 (8+6) – I refuse to put him in Tier II yet. Doc and I were talking about Moats last month when Slaton was struggling. Since then he’s turned it around and just like everyone else I was shocked to see him benched like that.  Odds are Gary Kubiak was using last weeks game to “Show Steve Slaton who’s Boss.” There have been a lot of elite backs who have struggled with fumbling the football. Slaton will get his ego back in check, work on the fundamentals, and find his way back in to Kubiak’s good graces. That being said you need to put a waiver claim in on Moats just in case.

Jerome Harrison 14 (8+6) – Another week, another Jerome Harrison… Here’s another Sleeper Math veteran.  We saw what he was able to do earlier in the season when Lewis was injured. Hopefully he gets hurt again and Harrison can get the opportunity to start that he deserves.

Maurice Morris 14 (7+7) – Kevin Smith left last Sunday’s game with a minor injury. Morris came in and played well in his stead. The coaching staff said Smith could’ve returned but they were being precautionary. It sounds like he’ll be ready to go this Sunday. Even so this makes Morris a really nice stash in case Smith’s injury is worse than reported or he re-aggravates it.

Mike Thomas 14 (7+7) – My esteemed colleague, Mr. Jones will be dropping “Targets” on the website this afternoon. He will discuss, much more eloquently than I can, why this guy is good pickup.

Tashard Choice 14 (8+6) – There’s reason to question whether Barber and Felix Jones can manage to stay healthy. Choice’s value is back down again, to waiver wire level in most leagues. He proved what he can do when he gets an opportunity. Stashing him for the second half is not a bad idea.

Justin Forsett 14 (7+7) – He has continued to get more and more looks in the offense while Julius Jones is boring us all to death. Forsett is one of the best second half Sleepers- he is a player who could leapfrog to the top of the depth chart either via injury to Jones or superior skill set.

Danny Ware 13 (7+6) – Ahmad Bradshaw’s foot will bother him the rest of the season. At some point he could injure it worse than it already is. If that happens Danny Ware will become the change of pace back to Jacobs and you could expect him to be solid producer for the G-Men.

You can follow me on twitter: @Razzball_Drew

The rumors of Michael Turner’s death have been greatly exaggerated.  Last night he looked like he took Marshawn Lynch’s beast mode and Spike Jonzed it onto the big screen.  He’s still what he is; a big, fast, straight ahead runner who will blow a crease up into a thousand pieces.

Matt Ryan: I mentioned that his schedule was getting tough and that you should trade him, well, it’s probably too late now. He’s not going to have games like this every week from here on out, but it will be hard for him to lead your team to a championship.  Oh, and the Saints will get you turnovers! You heard it here, um, last.

Steve Slaton: Kubiak says that all three running backs will play.  He told Slaton to keep his chin up because they’ll need him.  I told Kubiak to keep his chin up because I want it exposed for when I give him a sucker punch and then run away.  Kubiak will play whoever he thinks will win him the game; selfish bastard. (more…)