Fantasy Football Advice

The best wide receivers usually stay that way, thankfully, but us fantasy footballers have to roster quite a few wide receivers which means we have to grab value late.  I have our first 45 receivers up here today.  We’ll be adding even more, but this post was getting to be too tome-like.  And I teach the ADD riddled youth of America and know not to go on too long.

Tier 1

1. Andre Johnson 29 — The best receiver with the best situation.

2. Larry Fitzgerald 27 — He will make Leinart better.  He makes me better and I live on my couch.

3. Calvin Johnson 25 — Too young and talented not to rank high.  I think Stafford will pan out.

Tier 2

4. Vincent Jackson 27 — As long as he can keep from getting DUI’s, Rivers to Jackson will become annoying.

5. Reggie Wayne 31 — He’s rock steady.

6. Miles Austin 26 — I liked what I saw out of Austin last season and Romo continues to improve.

7. Brandon Marshall 26 — Not sure where he’ll end up, but he’s still young and very good and possibly a butt-head.

8. Roddy White 28 — He’s the main man in Atlanta.  Not much competition for catches.

Tier 3

9. Randy Moss 32 — He’s old, but has a few good years left.

10. DeSean Jackson 23 — He’s very young and very fast, but Maclin should steal from him.

11. Greg Jennings 27 — He’ll be living in Mr. Rodgers’ hood for years to come.

12. Marques Colston 27 — Great skills, but Brees spreads the ball around a little too much, bastard.

13. Santonio Holmes 26 — As long as Big Ben isn’t incarcerated he’ll be steady.

Tier 4

14. Michael Crabtree 23 –  He looked good even after couch sitting for part of the season.

15. Sidney Rice 24 — If his QB sitch was more stable he’d be higher.

16. Hakeem Nicks 22 – He looks poised to break out and continue to do so.

Tier 5

17. Steve Smith (CAR) 31 – How do I trust him? Dunno, but I know Moore does.

18. Wes Welker 29 – Too good too drop far because of his injury.

19. Steve Smith (NYG) 25 –This other Steve will go higher in ppr leagues.

20. Dwayne Bowe 26 – He has his troubles, but he is too good not to grab in the top 20.

21. Anquan Boldin 29 – Hard to put him this low, but he’s aging and been beat up.

Tier 6

22. Mike Sims-Walker 25 – He has the skill to thrill.

23. Percy Harvin 22 – His potential will be hard to live up to, but he has the potential to, uh, you know.

24. Chad Ochocinco 32 – Getting oldish, but he should continue to do what he do.

25. Pierre Garcon 24 – Looks like he Pipped Gonzalez.

26. Jeremy Maclin 22 – Young and on a pass first offense.

Tier 7

27. Robert Meachem 26 – Saints’ receivers are scary, but he showed his worth last season.

28. Kenny Britt 22 – He’s currently behind Gage and Washington, but not for long.

29. Eddie Royal 24 – McDaniels pulled a McDaniels on him, but he should turn it around.

30. Steve Breaston 27 – The #2 in Zona won’t be as productive as recent years, but he’s still good.

31. Devin Aromashodu 26 – His status next season isn’t a given, but I believe he’ll be the #1.

Tier 8

32. Braylon Edwards 27 – He is who he is.

33. Jerricho Cotchery 28 – More reliable than Edwards, but not as much upside (or the coinciding down side).

34. Hines Ward 34 – I love old, steady players in redrafts, but tough to foresee how long they’ll be around in dy-nastys.

35. Donald Driver 35 – Look up a centimeter.

Tier 9

36. Johnny Knox 23 – He will be the deep threat for Cutler and with Martz he should get his shots.

37. Mike Wallace 24 – He will be hit and miss with Ward in the picture, but his hits are usually TD’s.

38. Jacoby Jones 26 – Bringing Kevin Walter back hurts, but I think he’ll beat him out or up.

39. Malcolm Floyd 29 – He’s the #2 WR in a pass heavy offense.

Tier 10

40. Julian Edelman 24 – Tough to gauge his worth, but you know he’ll be good for the first half of next season.

41. Terrell Owens 36 – Depends on where he ends up, but he’s TOld.

42. Austin Collie 24 – If he’s in the slot and Peyton is throwing to him, well, you get it.

43. T.J. Houshmandzadeh 33 – Not even sure he should be this high, but Carroll’s offense will be pass happy.

44. Antonio Bryant 29 – I like him even if he is a freak.

45. Nate Burleson 29 – He should be happy to be across from Megatron.  Just hope he stays healthy.

Here are my rankings for the Super Bowl peppered with some “remember me hits.”  Let’s get it, as they say, on!

Quarterbacks:

1. Peyton Manning: In these here playoffs the Saints have forced at least one quarterback into retirement and another possibly into hiding/retirement/24/7 news cycle.  They will be coming after Peyton Manning with the force of Zeus’ own thunder! But then he’ll sidestep and throw a touchdown.  We saw the Jets’ #1 defense get to Manning early in the AFC Championship game and then the Manning Machine finally got warmed up and chewed them up and spat them out while throwing for 377 yards and 3 TD’s.  That’s the most passing yards given up by the Jets all year.  And the Saints don’t have as good a pass defense as the Jets. In the Saints’ last 6 meaningful games (not including week 17 when they rested starters) they have given up 303.5 passing yards per game.  Greg Williams wants his players to put some “remember me hits” on Peyton early.  Rex Ryan probably had the same game plan.

2. Drew Brees: He is probably the best all around fantasy quarterback going against the best all around real quarterback.  The Colts are vulnerable against the pass with their young defensive backs and unless Freeney and Mathis can pressure Brees consistently, he will be able to move the ball through the air.  The Saints did try to balance the run with the pass in the championship game. They had 23 rushes to 31 passes even though they only averaged 3 yards a carry.  I believe they’ll try a similar ratio against the Colts, so Brees’ numbers could be dampened just a little.

Running Backs:

1. Joseph Addai: He ran strong against the Jets’ tough run defense totaling 81 yards on 16 carries.  The Colts won’t all of the sudden try to run the ball down the Saints throats, but Addai could see similar to better numbers against a poor rushing defense, and I see him adding a touchdown.  Addai has been a little dinged up and the 2 weeks of rest should help him quite a bit.

2. Pierre Thomas: He says his ribs aren’t bothering him and he did have a decent game against a good Vikings rush defense.  The Colts have had good game plans against elite running backs, but PT won’t be their main focus and could sneak in a couple big runs.

3. Reggie Bush: Bush is the ultimate boom or bust (sounds a little like his girlfriend).  I almost put him above PT because he is always a threat to take the ball all the way.  But in the biggest game in the whole wide world of sports I think Payton trusts Thomas with the ball more.  Bush does elevate his game and could go off, but I’m playing it safe with PT and his 15-20 touches.

4. Donald Brown: He was clearly backing up Addai last week so it looks like he’s passed Mike Hart as he should have.  Coming off his injury I’ve seen a couple very nice runs from him, but for the most part he’s not doing enough to take many looks away from Addai and I doubt things will change much in the Super Bowl.

5. Mike Bell/Lynell Hamilton: Both of these guys have about the same chance of vulturing a touchdown from Pierre Thomas.

Wide Receivers:

1. Reggie Wayne: Garcon and Collie benefited from Wayne getting Revis-ed last week, but Revis didn’t get invited to the Super Bowl.  The Saints did slow Sidney Rice, but he still had 4 receptions for 43 yards and a TD.  The Saints are going to have their hands full with Garcon, Collie and Clark, so giving Wayne extra attention might be tough.

2. Marques Colston: Against the Vikings Drew Brees completed passes to 8 different players and only had a total of 17 completions.  Not one receiver had a great game and that has really been the way it has gone all season.  Colston is the Saints best receiver so he gets the #2 nod.

3. Pierre Garcon: He showed he could be the #1 guy without any downgrade in production.  Reggie Wayne is still the man and unless the Saints spend a lot of resources on shutting him down we should see Garcon’s numbers dip from last week’s game.

4.Devery Henderson: He’s leading the Saints in receiving in the playoffs and has scored as many touchdowns in the playoffs as he did all season with two.  You can’t discount a player who is hot in the playoffs.  Of course he could be shut out, but trying to pick a Saints receiver is tough no matter what you do, might as well go with the hot hand.

5. Robert Meachem: He’s been hurting, but seems to be healthy now and he would probably be my pick to pull another Braylon Edwards on the Colts defense.  The only problem with that is the Saints aren’t a run first team like the Jets, so it will be tougher to beat the Colts deep.

6. Austin Collie: Collie should see the biggest drop off from the Revis game, but you cannot count him out for a touchdown.  Manning will throw to the open guy. So get open!

7. Lance Moore: Just another Saints wide receiver to divvy up the receptions.  What ever happened to a #1 and #2 receiver that got a predetermined number of catches?  That never happens? Hmm, maybe I was watching darts.

Tight Ends:

1. Dallas Clark: This is a bit of a no-brainer based on his competition, but the Saints have been tough against tight ends.  They’ve only given up one TD to a TE and the was the future Hall of Famer Fred Davis. Clark is too good to shut out.

2. Dave Thomas: If I were Sean Payton I would play Thomas over Shockey based on hair alone, but also because Shockey is hurting.  I really wouldn’t want either Saints’ tight end, but the founder of Wendys isn’t hurting.

3. Jeremy Shockey: He says he will risk an even worse injury than he already has to play in the Super Bowl.  Well, that’s very William Wallace of you Jeremy, but I think they’ll go with the healthier guy.

Kickers:

1. Garrett Hartley: The Colts can interpretive dance the cliche of “bend and don’t break” and it is a beautiful display that will go off-broadway after the Super Bowl.  Hartley will have some chances to kick.

2. Matt Stover: I see the Colts converting their drives into touchdowns more often than the Saints.

Defense/Special Teams:

1. New Orleans Saints: I like the Colts to win this game, but with Roby and Bush returning kicks and punts and the Saints loving the turnover they have a little more upside.

2. Indianapolis Colts: This should be a high scoring game.  The Colts might be the safer defense since I see them having more points than that other team.

The 2009-2010 NFL playoffs has featured plenty of pass-happy teams. The good news is that 3 of the 4 remaining teams have an abundance of fantasy-relevant QB’s, WR’s, and TE’s. The bad news is that one of this weekend’s two matchups offers a much better situation than the other.

Sunday 3:00 EST

New York Jets @ Indianapolis

As you may have guessed, the AFC matchup is the weaker of the two games in terms of pass offense. This is due entirely to the Jets’ presence on both sides of the ball. As we’ve cautioned all season, the Colts’ offense is a must-play even against the toughest defenses, but the fact remains, this is not a good matchup if you need huge numbers out of Indy.

The Jets offense has regressed in fantasy as it has progressed in real life. As Mark Sanchez was reined in further and further each week, his mistakes went down, but the opportunity for offensive production went down with it. It’s a fine recipe for winning games with (or in spite of) a rookie QB, but it doesn’t produce yardage or touchdowns. If you’re looking for a silver lining here, it’s that Sanchez may be forced to throw more often if the Colts take an early lead. That said, if Sanchez throws more often, you’re faced with the original problem, which is the likelihood of multiple turnovers. It’s still difficult to recommend anyone on this offense. Cotchery’s no sure thing to break 50 yards, and Keller is the weakest of the 4 remaining TE’s.

NYJ: Sanchez 0, Cotchery -1, Edwards -1, Keller -1

The interesting twist for the Indy offense is whether Darrelle Revis will primarily cover Reggie Wayne (as he was used to cover #1 receivers most of the season), or if he will be moved around the field depending on the defensive package (as he did last week against the Chargers). There are arguments to be made on both sides. The Jets used Revis to shut down #1 WR’s all year, so it could be argued that last week was an aberration, something designed specifically for the Chargers’ offense. On the other hand, it could be argued that the Colts in some ways resemble the Chargers — they have a clear #1 WR, but they also feature a dominant receiving TE, and at least 2 reasonable talented complementary WR’s. For now, my judgment is that Dallas Clark is a safer option than Wayne, if only because of the possibilities: Revis could cover (and severely limit) Reggie Wayne all game, but it’s unlikely that the Jets defense will be able to shut down Dallas Clark. With Revis switching coverage last week, Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates were neck and neck in catches and yardage. That’s not to say Wayne is a terrible option, but if one of the two is going be limited, I’d bet it’s Wayne and not Clark.

IND: Manning -1, Wayne -1, Clark 0, Garcon -1, Collie -1

Sunday 6:40 EST

Minnesota @ New Orleans

Now this is a game you can feel good about. Both pass offenses are clicking, producing yardage and (especially) touchdowns. Neither pass defense is particularly stout — even if it looks like they “shut down” the opposing offenses last week, other factors (Romo’s inability to complete throws downfield under pressure, Warner’s injury and its effect on his accuracy and arm strength) played a role in the suppressed totals.

Sidney Rice is clearly the highlight of the Vikings receiving corps, and he continues to physically dominate opposing corners. On 2 of his long catches last week, Rice didn’t even have much separation from the corner, but Favre put it within reach and Rice outpositioned the covering defender. The Saints secondary is a “bend don’t break” kind of unit, and while Darren Sharper has received plenty of (deserved) credit for his interceptions, he doesn’t cover pass routes particularly well and will give up yardage when he gambles. Harvin and Shiancoe were disappointments last week as they each caught just 1 pass (and while Shiancoe’s was a touchdown, it happened after the game was already in hand). Harvin worries me more than Shiancoe — we know that the TE is a favorite of Favre’s from 25-30 yards in, and that won’t change.

MIN: Favre +1, Rice +1, Shiancoe +1, Berrian, Harvin

I’m just ever so slightly more concerned about the Saints offense in this game. The Vikings’ front 7 consistently tore through the Cowboy’s pass protection. I trust Brees to make smart decisions with the ball, but if he gets hurried, the Saints may not have time to set up their downfield shots. Still, it’s a minor quibble. The bigger issue in terms of fantasy is why Meachem disappeared last week. Meachem did break free and was targeted downfield once, but Brees overthrew him. The Saints also “lost” a possession from Reggie Bush’s punt return TD, so that’s at least one drive in which Meachem could have been targeted a few more times. Still, we have to now consider Meachem a co- #2 WR (along with Devery Henderson, who had a gorgeous 44-yard TD on a flea-flicker) after Colston. Meachem had an amazing run of TD’s during the season, but that doesn’t help you this week, especially since he may have hurt his ankle during last week’s game. Now that I’ve written those words publicly, Meachem will probably leapfrog Henderson in production again, but that’s the nature of the Saints offense. I don’t think Shockey will match Witten’s numbers (10-98) from last week, but he may grab a few more yards than usual.

NO: Brees 0, Colston 0, Meachem -1, Henderson +1, Shockey +1

Another weekend of playoff games, another blowout fest until the very last game, but even that game wasn’t really in doubt toward the end.  Hopefully next week we’ll get a little more excitement with Favre in the bayou and Manning navigating around Revis Island.  Here are my thoughts and postulations and consternations on the divisional games.  Read at your own risk:

Brett Favre: No matter what you think of him he will always be remembered for his “pants on the ground” locker room celebration, which should automatically disqualify him from Canton.  Favre threw for four TD’s and 234 yards while humiliating the Cowboys and gets to play in another dome on Sunday which he seems to like.

Sidney Rice: He’s just getting stronger in the big games and will continue to be Favre’s favorite receiver.  He tallied 141 yards and 3 touchdowns and is slowly rising on draft boards.  Much of his value is tied to Favre so if you want him on your team next season you’ll have to put up with Favreageddon this offseason.

Tony Romo: The Vikings absolutely demolished the Cowboy’s offensive line and pillaged Tony Romo’s manhood.  For as often as he was running from Flash Dance Headbanded Mullet Man it’s amazing he didn’t throw more than one interception.  There is no reason to think he won’t be a top fantasy QB again next season.

Felix Jones: Watching him run in comparison to Marion Barber was a bit like watching a remake of the Tortoise and the Hare, but in this version the hare’s wife is being held hostage by terrorists and he must beat the tortoise or his wife gets it.  Barber has beaten his body to death with the way he runs and looks like he’s lost a step.  Jones has given us some hope that he can stay healthy while getting 15 carries a game.  I am not going to feel good about taking either, but Jones will get his opportunity next season.

Jason Witten: With no time to pass Tony Romo had to get it off quickly to Witten so his 10 receptions for 98 yards isn’t too surprising. He started off slow this season, but finished strong.  He’s not as athletic and fast as Gates, Davis, Finley, etc, but he’ll continue to be productive in the Cowboy’s dynamic offense.  Thankfully you’ll be able to get him later in the draft next season.

Mark Sanchez: He’s doing his best Trent Dilfer impersonation, but I’m still sticking to my prediction that the passing game will prevail and that Peyton Manning will pick them apart, but as Sanchez develops he’ll have a great running game and defense to compliment his skills.

Shonn Greene: He ran for 128 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries and has seemingly taken over as the lead back and is making a strong case for starting camp as the #1 running back next season. It’s going to be hard not to push Greene on you next season, but there is a good chance Tom Jones will be back and Leon Washington should be ready to go as well.  It will be extremely hard to get Greene in a position of any value.

Philip Rivers: It felt a little like the Bolts took the Jets too lightly.  I could be wrong, but Rivers had only thrown 9 interceptions all year and threw 2 killer INT’s in this all important game.  Nate Kaeding didn’t help the situation, but Rivers just didn’t look sharp or ready for how well the Jets played.

Vincent Jackson: The Jets tried to confuse the Bolts by not shadowing VJax with Revis, and even though VJax finished the game with 111 yards they kept San Diego off balance. He was a great value pick this year, but will probably go higher and be drafted about where he should be next season.

LaDainian Tomlinson: Even though he was a TD machine once again this season he has lost more than a step.  Sproles clearly outplayed him against the Jets.  He will have to take a big pay cut to be the goal line back next year or he’ll be released.

Reggie Bush: In the rushing matchups article I wrote, “Reggie Bush will either have 10 touches and 3 touchdowns or 5 touches and a big fat Kardashian butt zero.” Nice riding of the fence Doc! Yeah, well, that’s what I do.  He ended up being much closer to the first prediction than the second with 2 TDs and around 200 total yards.  Hopefully this will keep people drafting him somewhat early so you can take someone who will get more than 5-10 touches a game and can stay healthy.

Drew Brees: He accumulated 247 yards and 3 touchdowns on his way to yet another great game.  You can’t say enough good things about Brees so I won’t try. He gets the Vikings suspect pass defense next week and his O-line should be more stable than Dallas’.  In the last 8 games the Saints have allowed 1.1 sacks per game which is second in the league.

Marques Colston: He looked like the elite receiver he should have been all year.  He’s just too tall and athletic and as long as he’s getting the opportunities I think he’ll have a good playoff run.

Jeremy Shockey: The grease from his hair was shipped in special from The Jersey Shore, but his doucheness was all his own.  He caught a TD while limping around, which I have to believe was done to bang more drunk chicks.

Kurt Warner: I guess Kurt didn’t pray hard enough or God just loves New Orleans more.  Wait, what was the whole hurricane thing about?  Whatever the reason, the Saints just destroyed the Cardinals.  Warner had to leave the game before halftime after getting blindsided and then he left the game again because his team had also been blindsided.  Will Warner retire? I think it’s probably 50/50 right now, but Cardinal’s fans better hope Leinart isn’t their QB next season.

Larry Fitzgerald: Tony Siragusa made an extremely astute observation when he said the Cardinals need to throw it to Larry Fitzgerald more. After they were getting killed they finally started throwing to him and he ended up with decent stats, but it was way too little too late.  Fitz is still an elite receiver and will go early in drafts, but keep an eye on that QB sitch.

Beanie Wells: He scored a TD, but that was about it. Beanie will be the main back going into next year, at least by a small margin, but he still isn’t trusted to block.  If he can get that squared away and take over on the goal line he could be a top RB next season, but don’t bank on it yet.  Hightower is trusted and that goes a long way.

Peyton Manning: Not since Australopithecus began to walk upright have we seen such evolution in the passing game. Or maybe it’s just that the NFL doesn’t let defenders touch receivers or quarterbacks, but whatever the reason, Peyton Manning can take over a game unlike any player in the NFL  I’m having maybe a bit too much love for Peyton’s skills, but he seems to have taken his game to another level.  The Ravens played extremely well on defense, but Manning took what he was given and didn’t try forcing the ball and it never really looked to be in doubt.  He gets to actually play the Jets this weekend and I bet you can guess who I think will win.

Reggie Wayne: He’s an elite receiver and showed it by catching 8 balls for 63 yards and a touchdown against a tough Ravens defense.  Now, as long as he doesn’t go bustin’ caps in random asses he could someday be the most beloved Indy receiver of all time.

Donald Brown: He split time with Mike Hart while backing up Joseph Addai, but on a couple runs showed some burst and moves that Hart just doesn’t have.  Expectations were fairly high for him this season, but hopefully his poor year will drop him into a manageable draft slot where he could have some value next season.

Joe Flacco: He was completely out played by the Colts, but I still think he has the ability to be a very good QB in this here league.  His injuries, lack of explosive wide receivers, and the emergence of Ray Rice made this season a running game centric one, and if they give him some help at receiver Flacco could easily balance out that offense.

Ray Rice: The Colts contained him, but “containing” him equals 127 total yards. I’ve said it before, but if McGahee is let go, Ray Rice will probably be my #3 overall pick ahead of MJD.  Unlike Matt Forte, Ray Rice can make his own holes and break long runs.  Forte and Slaton have left me a little gun shy of young running backs coming off big years, but Rice will not disappoint.

Last week I included a little “What to Watch” question with each game. I started to do the same this week, then I realized that I would mostly be watching the same thing in each game — will the team that had a first round bye week exhibit any signs of rust? Especially the passing games that rely on timing and game experience — will the QB’s be throwing behind crossing routes and overthrowing deep posts?

Saturday 4:30 EST

Arizona @ New Orleans

What’s left to say about Kurt Warner? He’ll occasionally take too many risks against a good pass defense, but then we thought Green Bay was a good pass defense, and he shredded them. Boldin is more likely to play this week, but his presence may actually hurt the available fantasy value here — Breaston and Doucet excelled in Boldin’s absence, but if he plays a significant portion of the game, the looks will be spread out more. Fitzgerald remains a top option. Other than Darren Sharper’s ball-hawking skills, the Saints’ secondary hasn’t been great in the last half of the season, so expect another shootout.

ARI: Warner +1, Fitzgerald +1, Boldin -1, Breaston -1 (+1 if Boldin sits), Doucet 0

The question here, of course, is the same question that applies to any of the teams that enjoyed a Round 1 bye. How rusty will Drew Brees and the Saints’ offense be after taking a full 2 weeks off? The Cardinals defense certainly didn’t shut Aaron Rodgers down, so at least the Saints don’t have a tough matchup. And, those 2 weeks should be enough for players to recover from most minor injuries. Coming in rested and healthy could be a factor against a team that played an overtime game last week.

NO: Brees +1, Colston +1, Meachem +1, Henderson 0, Shockey 0

Saturday 8:15 EST

Baltimore @ Indianapolis

Yeesh. When a team is so committed to (and successful at) running the ball, it makes it hard to rely on their passing game. I think the Colts defense is in much better shape than the Patriots were last week, so I think Flacco will have to pass more than 10 times, but still…it’s clear that the Ravens feel no compulsion to throw any more than they absolutely have to. Heap continues to have issues with his back, so I’d avoid him.

BAL: Flacco -2, Mason -2, Heap -2

Tough call here — the Ravens have been putting up excellent defensive numbers for the last half of the season, and repeatedly forced Brady to throw underneath for limited yardage. I don’t expect them to keep Manning in check like that, but it’s at best an average matchup for the Colts, and probably a mild downgrade is more realistic. My feeling is that Ed Reed will spend more time helping cover Wayne and Garcon and that there may be room for Dallas Clark to rack up some yardage.

IND: Manning -1, Wayne -1, Clark 0, Garcon 0, Collie 0

Sunday 1:00 EST

Dallas @ Minnesota

Romo is rolling right now, and unless Jared Allen and the Vikings line can put a lot more pressure on him than the Eagles did, I expect continued success. I was surprised that Witten wasn’t more involved last week. Miles Austin remains the clear #1 option. Roy Williams was decent but he’s too risky to rely on. Don’t forget that Crayton gets a little boost in return yardage leagues.

DAL: Romo +1, Austin +1, Williams 0, Crayton 0, Witten +1

Hard to argue against what the Vikings did in Week 17, but I’ll try — the Giants were getting worse each week and gave up on that game before it even started, and the Dallas defense has been steadily improving. We know that when Favre is unhurried, he can zing it with the best of them. I’m a believer in the Cowboy’s D-line, though, and I expect at least one or two mistakes from Favre. Slight downgrade.

MIN: Favre -1, Rice 0, Berrian -1, Harvin -1, Shiancoe 0

Sunday 4:40 EST

New York Jets @ San Diego

Cotchery isn’t a bad play in PPR formats, but apart from him, there isn’t much here. There’s basically 2 outcomes for Sanchez right now — failure (which looks like 100 yards and 2 or 3 int’s), or success (which looks like 160 yards with 1 TD and no picks). The difference between those 2 matters a lots to the Jets, but the upside is so limited for fantasy purposes that it’s better just staying away. Keller is a long-shot TE option just for his big play ability as evidenced last week, but don’t be surprised at a 2 catch, 28 yard week.

NYJ: Sanchez -1, Cotchery 0, Edwards -1, Keller 0

The unfortunate situation here is that V-Jax may just get erased by Revis. I don’t see any situation that doesn’t involve a serious cut in his production. Fortunately, Rivers still has Gates (who presents a huge matchup problem for the Jets), as well as Floyd, Naanee, Tomlinson, and Sproles. A mild downgrade just for losing V-Jax as a serious weapon, but don’t feel too bad about it.

SD: Rivers -1, Jackson -2, Gates +2, Floyd +1