Fantasy Football Advice

I’m not going to give any long winded diatribes on the greatness or not-so-greatness of each player.  You’ll have to wait on that as we go through our 2010 redraft rankings.  I’m giving you dynasty rankings here.  Always, and I mean always draft J.R. first.

Those numbers after their names are how old they’ll be at the beginning of the season.  Age isn’t nearly as important with quarterbacks as it is running backs, so these rankings will be similar to the redraft rankings, except of course for the ageless one, Brett Favre.  He may play until he is fifty, but if you are starting a dynasty team, Favre just isn’t worth the risk.

Tier 1

1. Aaron Rodgers 26 — Young and just getting better.

2. Drew Brees 31 — Payton and his offense aren’t going anywhere, so Brees isn’t either.

3. Peyton Manning 34 — Getting older, but he’s not slowing down.

4. Philip Rivers 28 — I almost slid him ahead of Peyton.  It scared me.

5. Tom Brady 33 — The Pats are losing some of their shine, but Brady isn’t going to stop throwing.

Tier 2

6. Tony Romo 30 — Tony, Tony, Tony will keep moving up the charts.

7. Matt Schaub 29 — Proved his durability and has a good friend in A.J.

Tier 3

8. Jay Cutler 27 — Interceptions don’t count for a lot in most leagues.

9. Matt Ryan 25 — Should get back on track.

10. Donovan McNabb 33 — Old, but still putting up top ten numbers.

11. Ben Roethlisberger 28 — Keeps improving, but seems to enjoy getting hit often.  Could be addicted to pain killers (and sexual assault investigations).

Tier 4

12. Joe Flacco 25 — Bert’s twin just got his wish, Boldin and Mason.

13. Eli Manning 29 — He looks like he lives in his mom’s basement, but will continue to throw around 4k a year.

14. Alex Smith 26 — Crabtree and Davis should keep Smith from crapping the bed again.

Tier 5

15. Matthew Stafford 22 — Might take a little while, but Megatron will ease his growing pains.

16. Chad Henne 25 — Had some big games last season.  Needs Boldin, Marshall, etc.. to show up at camp.

17. Mark Sanchez 23 — He’s in a good situation to learn and grow and all that shizz.

18. Vince Young 27 — Showed up last season when the Titans needed him.

Tier 6

19. Carson Palmer 30 — He didn’t look right against the Jets.

20. Matt Leinart 27 — Fitz makes any QB better.

21. Matt Cassel 28 — He has to show up this season or he’ll be on his way to dud town.

22. Kyle Orton 27 — Forgetting Brandon Marshall will be tough.

Tier 7

23. Kevin Kolb 26 — He is next in line to lead some very good and young receivers in a throw first offense.

24. Brett Favre 40 — I think he’ll play.  Look for one more good season.

25. Josh Freeman 22 — Has the skills and that upside thing.

26. Matt Hasselbeck 34 — He’s fallen pretty far due to an aging team and aging body.  Hair = Strength.

27. Jason Campbell 28 — Gets one more shot.  Better hope Snyder buys a new offense for Shanny.

Tier 8

28. Matt Moore 26 — He should get a shot over Delhomme.

29. Michael Vick 30 — A lot depends on where he ends up, but he’s not accurate.

30. David Garrard 31 — I don’t think he’ll be the starter for much longer.  Not good for dynasties.

Tier 9

31. Brady Quinn 25 — The Browns are looking to dump him, but still has a slim chance to start.

32. Trent Edwards 26 — Will probably be the starter next season.  Yippee.

33. Seneca Wallace 30 — Stop gap, but probably a starting stop gap.

34. Tarvaris Jackson 27 — If Favre stays home.

35. Bruce Gradkowski 27 — Was much more productive than the production black hole that is Russell.

Tier 10

36. Charlie Whitehurst 28 — Could be competing for a starting position.

36. JaMarcus Russell 25 — Not good, but I suppose he could turn things around.

37. David Carr 31 — Should backup Smith.

38. Jake Delhomme 35 — Will compete with Wallace for Browns job.

updated — 3/13/10

There are tons of playoff slots still up in the air so we should have a fun week 17 as fans and fake footballers.  Good luck this week!

1 pm Games

San Francisco @ St. Louis

Alex Smith is just too erratic to trust to lead your team to the promised land, even if you were only promised an empty lot under the train.  The matchup is good, but I’d feel better about using Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree.

SF: Smith 0, Crabtree +1, Davis +2

Keith Null should get the start once again and once again throw for under 200 yards and a couple picks. The Rams are best served losing this game to keep their draft status and they probably will.  There is no reason to even think about starting anybody from the passing game.  So play the passing game, and pass.

STL: Null -2, WR’s -2

New England @ Houston

The Pats have a shot at the #3 seed so it seems like they should be motivated at least a little, but Vegas has them underdogs by 8 points and I always lean toward players in must win situations.  Are Brady, Moss and Welker for a half better than a lot of players? Yes, and that’s a decision you’ll have to make.  But remember the Colts (not the Titans).

NE: Brady -1, Moss -1, Welker 0

Matt Schaub and company have a glimmer of hope of making the playoffs so they will be going all out.  Schaub is high on my awesome list this week and of course Andre Johnson is high on my totally awesome list. They are must starts, but you knew that.  I’ll shut up now.

HOU: Schaub +2, Johnson +2

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

Matt Ryan had a big game against a good Bisons’ pass defense last week and seems to be healthier even though he will be limited in practice. Tampa has a decent pass defense and a bad rush defense, but so did Buffalo and they still threw, so I’m looking for another decent game from Ryan. Gonzo is hurting and may not play so look for Roddy White to get a lot of work.

ATL: Ryan +1, White +2

Josh Freeman is still too inconsistent to use, even against a bad pass defense.  Antonio Bryant and Kellen Winslow are the only possibilities in the Bucs’ passing game and Winslow has been much more consistent. The Falcons are really hurting in the secondary and I think Bryant can have a decent game. He had 5 receptions last week, but just couldn’t get loose.  There’s a good chance he gets more yardage this week.

TB: Freeman -1, Bryant +1, Winslow +2

New Orleans @ Carolina

The Saints have clinched and even thought they are blowing some smoke about playing I doubt they last the whole game. I would worry about starting any of them, Lance Moore and Devery Henderson should see more work, but knowing how much work they’ll get is a crap shoot that I’m not willing to play.

NO: Brees -1, Colston, -1, Meachem -2, Moore 0, Henderson -1

Matt Moore has played very well as of late, and if Steve Smith hadn’t broken his arm I’d probably be ready to start him, but he did, and I’m not.  Muhsin Muhammad will see more work as the #1 receiver and is worth a WR #3.

CAR: Moore 0, Muhammad +1

Pittsburgh @ Miami

Big Ben should have his way with the Miami corners (no, they aren’t Vegas hotel workers, close though). Santonio Holmes is the clear number one and Hines Ward is still having hamstring issues.  I’d stay away if possible.  Mike Wallace is making the most out of limited targets, but with Hines Ward hobbled he could get even more targets and become a safer play.

PIT: Roethlisberger +2, Holmes +2, Wallace +1, Ward 0, Miller 0

Chad Henne has thrown for over 300 yards the last 2 weeks while throwing 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions.  Not great, but if you get a bonus for 300 yards it’s probably pretty good.  There is a good chance Henne will have to throw a lot since Pittsburgh’s rush defense is tough and their pass defense isn’t.  With those two 300 yard games you would think a wide receiver would have had a great game, but in both games no Dolphins’ receiver topped 10 fantasy points.  And that was Ginn and Hartline! You can’t tell who it will be and even if you do, the rewards aren’t that great.

MIA: Henne +1, Bess 0, Camarillo 0, Ginn 0, Hartline 0

Jacksonville @ Cleveland

David Garrard has had a bit of a regression this year. His fumblitis has gotten acute and he can’t even keep his best receiver in targets and fantasy points. Cleveland isn’t very good, but you can’t start Garrard.  Mike Sims-Walker became an every week starter for a stretch there, but that stretch is gone. With the amount of receivers with questionable playing time out there MSW is probably startable this week.

JAC: Garrard 0, Sims-Walker +1

Derek Anderson isn’t a NFL quarterback, well, he is, he’s playing in a NFL game on Sunday, but he won’t be for long.  He does get a horrible Jags secondary and I could almost see him having some crazy lights out game, but not enough to recommend starting him to my worst enemy, which I don’t think I’ve had since grade school. The Jags are much better on run defense, but the Browns have gone run heavy in their 3 game winning streak (it’s true), so they might be matching up with the wrong dudes this week.

CLE: Anderson -1, Massaquoi 0, Stuckey , Moore 0

New York Giants @ Minnesota

If they haven’t completely folded, the Giants could do some damage against the Vikings pass defense.  Jay Cutler and company threw all over them and their best cornerback, Antoine Winfield, got burned for the game winning touch down and looked slow in doing so.  I could see gambling on Eli this week if you are down a QB due to them resting on their ass-laurels. And with no Jacobs and the more reception friendly Bradshaw in there, I expect a lot of ball chucking.

NYG: Manning +1, Smith +2, Nicks +1, Manningham +1, Boss +1

The Vikings need this game for a chance at a bye so will be going all out.  Favre plays better in the home dome and showed that he’s not done for the season with a good game in Chicago. The Giants pass defense continues to be horrid so there is no reason to downgrade any receivers.

MIN: Favre +1, Rice +2, Harvin +1, Berrian 0, Shiancoe 0

Indianapolis @ Buffalo

Curtis Painter = start Buffalo’s defense.

IND: -2’s all around!

Ryan Fitzpatrick has been practicing and could get the start which sadly is an upgrade over Brian Brohm. With the Colts scrubs scrubbing away I could see throwing TO in there for one last hurrah.

BUF: Fitzpatrick 0, Owens +1

Chicago @ Detroit

So where has this Jay Cutler been?  Waiting until there was absolutely no pressure left? I don’t know, but if you could count on that Cutler playing he sure has a nice matchup in the dome, but his wide receivers are dropping like a ball in Adrian Peterson’s hands. Devin Hester is still limited and Johnny Knox is done for the season.  This might not set up Cutler for a big game, but it does set up Devin Aromashodu and Greg Olsen for a lot of work.  How productive they will be is another question, but opportunity + matchup = football fantasia.

CHI: Cutler 0, Aromashodu +1, Olsen +1

Detroit continues their horribleness which starts at the quarterback position. Drew Stanton and Daunte Culpepper are dueling toward mediocrity and both are winning.  Calvin Johnson had a decent game last week and seems to be healed enough to be startable even with the horrid QB battle.

DET: Stanpepper -2, Johnson +1

4 pm Games

Washington @ San Diego

The Native Americans will be playing the Chargers’ B team, but sadly the Skins A team plays like a C team.  Has anyone seen B.A. Baracus? While the Patriots and Bengals who might sit starters are extreme underdogs in Vegas the Chargers scrubs are actually favored. That is saying something.  Santana Moss has been getting a lot of targets, but continues to be a dink and dunker, who I would only use in ppr. Fred Davis has a nice matchup here and should get back to his end zone ways.

WAS: Campbell 0, Moss 0, Fred Davis +1

Billy Volek is a possibility if you own Rivers and are hurting at QB.  He is capable and has some decent 2nd string WR’s to use.  I wouldn’t bet the farm or even the farm cat on him though.  Legedu Naanee and Kassim Osgood could see a lot of work.

SD: Volek 0, Naanee +1, Osgood 0

Tennessee @ Seattle

Seattle’s secondary is fantasticly poor.  This is set up to be a good game for Vince Young and it easily could be, but we are going to see a lot of running by the 2,000 yard man (no relation to Mel Brooks).  I think VY will have a good game, but it will be difficult to predict what receivers might benefit.  Kenny Britt has been backsliding as of late and it is hard to play him in your championship game.  I’m staying away from the Titans’ receivers.

TEN: Young +1, Britt 0, Washington 0, Gage 0

So Matt Hasselbeck has turned into a major waste of space on anyone’s fantasy roster. His schedule looked great, but he just couldn’t turn things around this year. The Seahawks are texting it in and I can’t recommend any of them.

SEA: Hasselbeck -2, Housh -1, Carlson -1

Baltimore @ Oakland

Baltimore is in a must win game and they are facing a team whose weakness (rush D) fits perfectly into their strength (rushing).  But we are here to look at Flacco and company. Oakland doesn’t have a great secondary and can be beat so you have to get Mason in there. Flacco might not see a ton of work, but he is a fairly safe bet to not destroy you in a firey blaze of fantasy ineptitude. Todd Heap has turned it on the last couple weeks, but it is hard for me to jump on the bandwagon, but since he is getting those red zone targets I’ll take a short ride.

BAL: Flacco +1, Mason +1, Heap 0ish

Charlie Frye and Zach Miller got all pass happy last week and Miller is the only possible fantasy start in the passing game (as usual). Frye seems to like Miller, probably because he catches the ball, so I see no reason not to start him.

OAK: Frye -2, Miller +1

Philadelphia @ Dallas

The Cowboys pass defense is decent, but the onslaught of passes that McNabb throws at the defense is impossible to withstand. The Eagles have too many weapons in Jackson, Maclin and Celek.  This game should be a shootout and both teams have playoff seeding implications which will make them play all out.

PHI: McNabb +2, Jackson +2, Maclin +1, Celek +2

Tony Romo didn’t have a huge fantasy game last week, but he also didn’t kill your team.  He has turned a corner and will put up good numbers on an Eagles secondary that, in the last 5 weeks, has been giving up an average of 22 fantasy points to QB’s.  Look for Jason Witten and Miles Austin to get most of those yards.  Roy Williams is awful, but he could grab a TD if it gets coated with super glue on the way to him.

DAL: Romo +2, Austin +2, Williams 0, Witten +2

Kansas City @ Denver

The Denver secondary doesn’t allow any single receiver to beat them and the Chiefs don’t have enough weapons to really hurt them through the air.  Dwayne Bowe is getting a ton of short targets, but has yet to get any real yardage.  In ppr leagues Bowe is a good start, but otherwise he’s risky.

KC: Cassel -2, Bowe 0

Brandon Marshall tweaked his hamstring in practice, but reports say he will play.  Keep an eye on this, because he is pretty much the whole passing offense.  The Chiefs pass defense has improved, but they haven’t been playing very good passing offenses.  If Marshall is healthy he is a top 5 start this week and makes Orton a borderline start.

DEN: Orton 0, Marshall +2, Gaffney 0, Sheffler -1

Green Bay @ Arizona

I don’t think Green Bay will play their starters much so I would stay away from the whole mess. I would recommend the Packers back ups, but Arizona could be playing to win this game.

GB: no thanks

Kurt Warner and company could use a rest so if Minnesota beats the Giants in the early game I don’t see them playing more than a quarter. But if the Giants win, the Cardinals would have a shot at the #2 seed and a whole other week off.  And if the Cardinals are playing to win, while the Packers are packing it in, they could move the ball easily.

ARI: (if Giants win) Warner +2, Fitzgerald +2, Boldin +2 (If Minny wins) Leinart 0, Breaston +1, Doucet +1

8 pm Game

Cincinnati @ NY Jets

If the Patriots beat the Texans then Cincinnati will most likely rest their players.  If the Patriots lose to the Texans the Bengals will most likely rest their players. Don’t risk it and thankfully it’s a craptastic matchup anyway.

CIN: No thanks

Mark Sanchez isn’t trusted by the coaches so I don’t really trust the passing game.  They will run the ball a lot.

NYJ: Sanchez -1, Cotchery -1, Edwards -1

Good Christmas Eve morning/day/evening to all y’all’s!  I had planned on airing my Festivus grievances today, but I thought I’d do some passing matchup analysis instead.  But there is one that’s relevant here and could actually be my biggest grievance on this lovely morning; it is not knowing how long the Colts will play their starters! Read on to find out my take for now.  The rankings are based on my strategery chart which I’ll post this afternoon.  Everyone have a good Festivus and good luck on your feats of strength!

Make sure you enter our week 16 contest. A Razzball mug that says “Sonavabench!” on it will make you a hipster, but nobody will know you’re one!

Christmas Night 7:30 pm

San Diego (24th) @ Tennessee (14th)

Philip Rivers and Vincent Jackson have started connecting again, but Cortland Finnegan is also back from his injury and is playing well on #1 receivers.  It really depends on how much Rivers wants to test Finnegan.  Peyton Manning just went to Garcon instead of throwing to Wayne when they faced him.  I would downgrade VJax a bit, but it’s not exactly a Revis situation. I do look for Antonio Gates to have a big game against DVOA’s 31st ranked defense against tight ends. Malcolm Floyd has been getting enough looks to be a decent play in deeper leagues.

San Diego: Rivers +2, Jackson +1, Floyd 0, Gates +2

Vince Young had a career high 3 passing touchdowns last week.  His hamstring seems to be better and he gets a Chargers’ pass defense that in the last 8 games is giving up on average 265 yards passing and almost 2 TDs.  A lot depends on how badly the Chargers want to stop Chris Johnson, but no matter what, they have to try.  With Justin Gage back the Titans have three legit receivers which makes it harder to decipher who gets the fantasy points, but Kenny Britt is still the best receiver and with VY in there, is a good start. Bo Scaife is getting his targets, but they are usually check downs. If you need 4-5 receptions for 40-50 yards, he’s there.

Tennessee: Young +1, Britt +1, Gage 0, Washington 0, Scaife 0

Sunday 1 pm

Tampa Bay (9th) @ New Orleans (18th)

Josh Freeman had shown some life for Antonio Bryant and Kellen Winslow, but Bryant had a choice matchup against Seattle and sadly couldn’t do much.  Winslow on the other hand continues to get a lot of work no matter what.  The Saints have been tough on TEs and held Winslow to 29 yards in Tampa, but he still got 5 receptions.  Sammie Stroughter actually had more looks than Bryant last week, but he also broke his foot. Does this mean Bryant will see more work? Yes, and they will probably be throwing a lot indoors. He is a risky start, but I love me some Antonio Bryant.

Tampa Bay: Freeman -2, Bryant +1, Winslow 0

Drew Brees and company looked mortal against Dallas last week, but they get a much easier opponent this week.  The Saints still need to win to clinch home field throughout and Payton says he won’t rest players, so unless they get up big, which they might, I would feel good with starting them. Tampa’s pass D is actually decent statistically, but they’ve also faced some pretty poor passing attacks lately.  I would have no qualms with starting Colston and Meachem and possibly the founder of Wendy’s, Dave Thomas, if Shockey doesn’t play.

New Orleans: Brees +2, Colston +1, Meachem +1, Thomas 0

Houston (8th) @ Miami (22nd)

Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson are quickly becoming a top 3 duo and Miami isn’t equipped to stop them. Schaub is focusing on AJ and then spreading the ball around too much to his secondary receivers for them to be worth much in your fantasy championship.

Houston: Schaub +2, Johnson +2

Sparano doesn’t mind giving Chad Henne a lot of work when behind (not from behind) and this could be one of those games. Henne is too risky to start, but this game could become a shootout and Greg Camarillo and Davone Bess should see a lot of targets.  They are only options in ppr leagues, but I feel like they are fairly safe, especially Camarillo.

Miami: Henne o, Camarillo +1, Bess 0, Fasano -1

Seattle (31st) @ Green Bay (20th)

The Seahawks just lost to Tampa Bay at home and now they get to travel to Green Bay. They can’t seem to settle on a starting running back and Matt Hasselbeck is always an injury risk. Add to that, their best wide receiver Nate Burleson is hurt and you have the makings for a poor showing. Deion Branch actually led in targets, but still had a poor game last week.  The Packers gave up 500 yards passing to the Steelers, but don’t expect half of that this week.  The only Seahawk who looks like he has a shot of a decent game is John Carlson, but even then I think you can find a better option.

Seattle: Hasselbeck -1, Houshmandzadeh -1, Branch -2, Carlson 0

This could get ugly.  If I ranked quarterbacks each week Aaron Rodgers would be at the top. The forecast looks cold, but clear right now, so it shouldn’t be too much of a factor.  Jermichael Finley has led the Packers in targets the last 2 games and is a great play once again. He’s easily a top 5 TE this weekend.  Greg Jennings had a big game last week, but now with Finley grabbing so many targets Jennings and Driver might have a little trouble both having big games. The matchup is too good to sit them though.

Green Bay: Rodgers +2, Jennings +1, Driver +1, Finley +2

Carolina (6th) @ New York Giants (29th)

Steve Smith had a retro game last week and seems to be playing a bit better with Matt Moore under center.  He should out duel the other Steve Smith and then that Steve Smith will have to change his name to Jacob Higgenbottom.  Moore also had a big game last week, but going to the Meadowlands is going to be a taller order to fill.  Yes, the Giants pass defense is terrible, but Moore is too unproven to throw him into your championship starting lineup.

Carolina: Matt Moore 0, Steve Smith +1

Carolina hasn’t allowed a wide receiver to hit 16 fantasy points all season and only 5 to get above ten.  Little Brother has been tearing it up lately and quietly having a pretty good year.  He has a lot of weapons, and even though there probably won’t be one stand out fantasy , is hard to bench the guy throwing to them.  I’d lower expectations a bit, but in a tough choice, ride the hot hand.

New York: Manning +1, Smith 0, Nicks 0, Manningham 0

Oakland (23rd) @ Cleveland(25th)

Talk about your clash of the passing titans! This is like the 2007 Patriots vs. the 99 Rams! Let’s look at the numbers. The Browns QB’s are averaging 9.1 fantasy points a game while the Raiders QB’s are averaging 9.0 fantasy points!  This game could decide which team has the worst fantasy passing attack of the year! Oh, and I have to say QB’s instead of a player’s name because there are quite a few of them out there for these pitiful teams. Charlie Frye looks like he will play again, and even though Jamarcus Russell led them on a game winning drive, Frye gives their one fantasy player through the air a chance and that’s tight end Zach Miller.  He is back from a concussion and could have a productive game.

Oakland: Frye -2, Miller +1

Derek Anderson will get the start which doesn’t really mean much.  Both offenses will try to rely on the run for the most part.  There isn’t one QB/WR/TE I would start on the Browns team.

Cleveland: ugh

Jacksonville (26th) @ New England (28th)

The forecast is calling for mid 4o’s, but a chance of rain and snow.  It’s too early to get wind predictions so it’s something to keep an eye on, but for now we’ll look at it as if they’re playing in an airplane hangar.  Both of these teams have something to play for, so feel warm and fuzzy about that.  David Garrard, like I’ve said before has a multiple personality disorder, well, this team does actually.  You never know how they’ll play. I would not want to start Garrard, but depending on your options he may be the lesser of two evils. Mike Sims-Walker looks like he is healed up and makes a good play against a bad Patriots secondary.

Jacksonville: Garrard 0, Sims-Walker +1

Tom Brady might have caught some of what Garrard has.  His consistency has gone down the toilet, but at home against the Jags you start him and are happy about it.  And that goes for Randy Moss and Wes Welker as well. The secondary receivers and TE’s no longer get any love.

New England: Brady +2, Moss +2, Welker +2

Kansas City (7th) @ Cincinnati (5th)

Cassel had a nice game against the Browns, but the Browns are the Browns are the Browns. Cincinnati’s pass defense is much better and they need a win.  The Chiefs don’t really need anything except to not break something.  Chris Chambers had a nice game, but that came on limited targets.  Dwayne Bowe got the most targets which included red zone looks. His opportunities should be there again and he has a good chance to get in for a TD, even in a tough matchup.

Kansas City: Cassel -2, Bowe 0

The Chiefs’ good pass D numbers come from facing some pretty poor quarterbacks, i.e. Quinn, Fitzpatrick, and Russell.  All good QB’s have torched them.  There is a good chance we will see a lot of Benson, but Palmer should at least have the opportunity to put up decent numbers.  He broke out of his slump last week, but he was in a pretty big slump.  It would be hard for me to trust him, but if you’re in a pinch, well, you know. I would be able to trust Ochocinco though.  He is by far Palmer’s best receiver and should do well.

Cincinnati: Palmer +1, Ochocinco +2

Baltimore (2nd) @ Pittsburgh (21st)

Pittsburgh’s pass defense has been getting destroyed and with their run defense still playing tough Joe Flacco should be airing it out. I wouldn’t expect 4 touchdowns and no interceptions like he had against the paper Bears, but he is better than a lot of options out there. Derrick Mason continues to do his thing so you should continue to start him. Of course Todd Heap goes off last week after doing about zilch all year.  I would stay away from him.  The same goes for Demetrius Williams, but with the caveat that he is worth a look in deeper leagues. The guy is good, but we just can’t trust him yet.  Keep a keeper eye on him.

Baltimore: Flacco +1, Mason +1, Williams -1, Heap -1

Big Ben went off on a good Packers defense to the tune of 500 some odd yards, 3 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  He was out with a concussion and being chastised by Hines Ward the last time they met the Ravens. In such a heated rivalry often stats have to be thrown out the window and Roethlisberger proved that he can put up great numbers on great defenses.  You don’t start him over a top tier QB with a better matchup, but he is a good start otherwise.  The same goes for Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward.  They are strong plays in a game the Steelers must win.

Pittsburgh: Roethlisberger +1, Holmes +1, Ward 0, Wallace -1, Miller -1

Buffalo (3rd) @ Atlanta (30th)

Brian Brohm will get the start for the Bison. I like that his first and last name shares the same first two letters. Can you think of anymore NFL players that have names like that? And don’t go googling it! But that’s about all I like about Brohm.  He is a downgrade for TO and Evans.

Buffalo: Brohm -2, Owens -2, Evans -2

Buffalo’s pass defense is for real, but they did lose ball hawking rookie Jairus Byrd (get it, he’s a bird and a ball hawk).  The Falcons (another bird) will run the ball a lot with Snelling and Norwood (like ostriches) so I would stay away from Ryan, but Roddy White should be in line for a few targets. He’s not a huge play, but he’s Roddy White and he doesn’t have Revis on him.  Oh, and play Gonzo.  He’s earned it.

Atlanta: Ryan -1, White 0, Gonzalez +1

Sunday 4 pm

Detroit (31st) @ San Francisco (12th)

Drew Stanton will get the start over Daunte Culpepper which is the right move, but Stanton isn’t exactly Y.A. Tittle, but who is? Besides Y.A. Tittle? He is a slight upgrade which helps Megatron a little.  With CJ’s numbers recently I don’t blame you for being extremely skittish, but if you are on the fence about him, Stanton might push you over.

Detroit: Stanton -2, Johnson +1

Alex Smith looked horrible in Philadelphia, but that happens to a lot of QB’s. He’s not a lock, but at home against Detroit is the best Smith is going to get.  If you don’t have an elite QB feel pretty good about starting him as well as most of the other offensive components.

San Francisco: Smith +1, Crabtree +1, Morgan +1, Davis +2

St. Louis (16th) @ Arizona (15th)

Keith Null should get the start once again.  He was a little effective last week, but not fantasy effective. The Rams passing game is putrid and spread out.  That isn’t a good combo.

St. Louis: Null -2, WR’s -2

Kurt Warner hasn’t looked like his old self, well he’s looked like his old self, but not his old self.  Oh nevermind.  If you have Warner and another top QB I think I would err on the side of caution and eeny-meeny yourself to the non-Warner guy.  But Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson blew up the Rams last week and Warner, Fitzgerald and Boldin really should be able to do the same.

Arizona: Warner +1, Fitzgerald +2, Boldin +2, Breaston 0

Denver (4th) @ Philadelphia (11th)

Kyle Orton is boring. Thankfully he does throw to Brandon Marshall and Brandon Marshall is the only safe player on the Broncos this week. The Eagles will Flip . . Flip . . Flipadelphia! the Broncos. Or not, we’ll actually have to wait until they play the game.

Denver: Orton -1, Marshall +1

McNabb and company face a good, but deflated Denver pass defense.  McNabb has been playing well and can’t be sat just because they are going against a tough pass defense. Jeremy Maclin practiced and should play, but I would be wary.  Get Desean Jackson and Brent Celek in there.  DJax is the home run hitter and Celek is hitting for average.

Philadelphia: McNabb +1,  Jackson +2, Celek +1, Maclin -1

New York Jets (1st) @ Indianapolis (26th)

This game is extremely hard to analyze because Caldwell won’t tip his hand as to how much the starters will play.  But no matter what, Mark Sanchez is starting, which makes it hard to feel great about their passing attack.  Braylon Edwards caught a long TD last week, but it’s hard to ask for that 2 weeks in a row.  The Colts have been giving up a lot of yardage to receivers so I could see going with Cotchery or Edwards if you had to, but I wouldn’t be doing back flipadelphias over the idea.

New York: Sanchez -2, Edwards 0, Cotchery 0, Keller -2

Do I know how long the Colts starters will play? No, but at this point in the week nobody knows and there is a chance we won’t know until Manning puts on his cap and starts shooting a commercial on the sidelines.  Unless we hear otherwise, regard all Colts as extremely risky.  Besides not knowing if the starters will play a couple series or the whole game, they also get to face the #1 pass defense in the league.  Reggie Wayne faces Revis AND might not go the whole game! You do the math. Of course news might change this week and we could have a clearer picture, but if they were playing in five minutes, I’d say to sit them all unless you have Brian Brohm, Deion Branch and Randy McMichael as your only other options.

Indianapolis: Manning -1, Wayne, -2, Garcon -2, Collie 0, Clark -1

Sunday 8:20 pm

Dallas (10th) @ Washington (16th)

Tony Romo has turned into a must start recently, so you must start him.  The same goes for Miles Austin.  The Redskins have thrown in the towel and the Cowboys want to keep winning in December and in front of national television audiences whereas the Redskins don’t mind looking like utter fools in front of national television audiences.  Jason Witten is up to his old razztastic tricks, but he is getting enough targets to keep starting him. Roy Williams just isn’t that good, but Washington isn’t great against #2 receivers.

Dallas: Romo +2, Austin +2, Williams 0, Witten +1

Jason Campbell went from surging to purging. That offensive smelling line sure didn’t help matters.  Dallas and Washington have played some crazy games in the past, but I just don’t see the Skins turning this season around enough to put up much of a fight. Your only hope is Fred Davis.  Lets hope he gets to the Death Star in time.

Washington: Campbell -1, Moss -2, Thomas -1, Davis +1

Monday 8:30 pm

Minnesota (19th) @ Chicago (13th)

The Brett Favres hit a little Major Dad speed bump, but they get the folding Chicago Bears on Monday night to help right the ship (count the mixed metaphors and win a prize!)  Can you rely on Favre after his down games? Not really. Do you start Kyle Orton over him? Not really.  This game should be the Adrian Peterson show.  Sidney Rice is really the only sure start this week, with Harvin and Berrian bringing up the rear.

Minnesota: Favre 0, Rice +2, Harvin +1, Berrian 0, Shiancoe -1

The Bears are in shambles.  I wouldn’t touch any of them with a 10 foot cattle prod, well, maybe a cattle prod.

Chicago: Cutler -2, WR’s -2, Olsen -2

I’m subbing for Mark this week and bringing you my take on the passing matchups.  Instead of going with just the passing yards against for the last 6 weeks, I’ve gone to my Statistical Strategery numbers for this week’s matchups.  (Which I’ll be posting later today) And to the main event:

Thursday 8:20 PM

Indianapolis (24th) @ Jacksonville (23rd)

The word is good for this week regarding the imminent sittitude of the Colts studs. Can colts be studs? Ok, this isn’t Horse Digest. Jacksonville has been poor defending the pass all season.  Reggie Wayne has had two good corners on him the last two weeks and should be able to break out of his slump in prime time against the Jags poor CB’s. Pierre Garcon may not see as many looks this week, but he’s still startable.  The Jags have been fairly tough on tight ends, but Dallas is a rich man with a death wish in his eye.

Colts: Manning +2, Wayne +2, Garcon +1, Clark +1

The Colts pass defense has not been great lately.  In the last 8 games their young corners have given up 191 yards a game to wide receivers.  That is 32nd or dead last or not good.  The problem with facing the Colts is they give you the yardage, but make it tough to get into the endzone.  Mike Sims-Walker Jacksonville Ranger is probable to play.  After his doubtful status got turned into 100% starting status and then turned into sucking status it’s hard to know how he’ll play, but he’s worth a WR #3 play.  David Garrard is a tough nut to crack.  His best game recently was against the Jets in New York! He’s too erratic to risk your playoff matchup on.

Jaguars: Garrard -1, Sims-Walker 0, Lewis -2

Saturday 8:20

Dallas (13th) @ New Orleans (19th)

Romo has thrown 7 touchdowns and averaged 316 yards passing in the last 3 games.  They aren’t winning, but Romo is still helping fantasy teams. Roy Williams has settled down into an ok receiver, not an elite receiver, an ok receiver.  Miles Austin is back near the top of the stud-o-meter and is a must start.

Cowboys: Romo +1, Austin +1, Williams 0, Witten +1

Dallas’ pass defense has been decent, but decent doesn’t stir the jumbalaya in New Orleans.  Start them like you were going to before you started reading this.

Saints: Brees +2, Colston +1, Meachem +1, Shockey 0

Sunday 1 PM

Cleveland (14th) @ Kansas City (14th)

Cleveland has a nice matchup, but they usually don’t capitalize on nice matchups.  The sometimes mighty Quinn has been amazing for a couple games, but then mostly horrid.  He is too inconsistent to even think about starting in your fantasy playoff game.  With his inconsistency goes the rest of the team’s inconsistency.  Mangini in a bottle is looking to give Cribbs more looks in the backfield which will probably look fairly wildcatty, or wild brownie. If he gets the looks, he’s worth a start.  I like him as a WR #3 in this game and if you are in a return yardage league you don’t need me to tell you nothin’.

Browns: Quinn -1, Cribbs +1, Massaquoi -1, Moore 0

Non-Performance Enhanced Dwayne will be playing and has gotten a thumbs up from his coach. It is hard to be really confident in starting him after being off 4 weeks, but he does have a good matchup.  Bowe’s return will hurt Mark Bradley the most, but you don’t own him.  Chris Chambers has gone from startable to not.  With Bowe back he will remain not.

Chiefs: Cassel -1, Bowe +1, Chambers -1

Houston (21st) @ St. Louis (14th)

The Rams recent pass defense numbers are still being inflated by facing some poor quarterbacks.  Feel very good about starting Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson.  Sadly they could be sitting on the bench fairly early because the Rams can’t score.  Kevin Walter and David Anderson are getting about the same amount of looks and are canceling each other out.  I think it’s time to give up on Walter if you haven’t already.

Texans: Schaub +2, Johnson +2, Walter -2

Null threw 5 interceptions last week and Boller didn’t practice due to an illness.  Boller may play, but he’s not much better than Null, literally and figuratively.  If you take a look at the targets week by week for the Rams wide receivers on a graph it is a pretty funky roller coaster.  They’ve got some fantasy quality receivers if only they had a fantasy quality QB.

Rams: Boller/Null Ø, Any Rams WR -2

Atlanta (30th) @ NY Jets (1st)

No matter who starts at quarterback for the Falcons, don’t start him.  Matt Ryan did not participate in practice on Wednesday and is questionable right now.  The Jets pass defense at home makes the whole Falcons’ passing game extremely questionable.  Sadly Roddy White might as well not show up, because his stats at the end of the day will look like he hadn’t.  He will get Revis’d, but good.  Michael Jenkins did put in a good statistical game last week, but he’s not worth owning.  Gonzo is always a start cuz he’s Gonzo.

Falcons: Redman/Ryan -2, White -2, Jenkins -2, Gonzalez 0

Mark Sanchez practiced and if everything goes well he probably will go.  His gunslinging ways help the Jets receivers and I think upgrade Cotchery and Edwards against a poor Falcons pass defense. With Clemens in, they just rush, rush and then rush for good measure.  Sanchez may also be handing off a lot as well, but he does have a better arm than Clemens. His start still isn’t for sure so keep an eye on that.

Jets: Clemens/Sanchez -2, Cotchery +1, Edwards +1, Keller -2

Miami (18th) @ Tennessee (16th)

Chad Henne has been throwing the ball a lot since the wildcat was disbanded and doing fairly well, but the Dolphins are still a running team.  Henne is accurate, tying Pennington’s 17 straight completions, and has a strong arm.  They aren’t going to turn him loose unless they get behind like they did to New England where he threw for over 300 yards.  If the Dolphins are playing the game they want, Henne will throw for 175-225 yards 1 TD and no interceptions.  Not exactly QB 1 numbers, which of course makes it hard to get wide receivers a lot of yards.  Bess was doing well in ppr leagues, but got dinged up last week.  Keep an eye on his status and reserve him for ppr only.

Dolphins: Henne 0, Bess 0, Camarillo 0

Miami’s pass defense hasn’t been good this season and can be beat. Of course a lot depends on Vince Young’s status. He sat out of practice on Wednesday, but says he could have come back into the game on Sunday.  The Titans are a completely different team with Collins behind center.  If VY practices Thursday and Friday I’d feel good about starting him, but if he doesn’t practice I would look elsewhere. Kenny Britt is turning into a legitimate #1 receiver and even with Collins he’ll get his looks.  Otherwise you can’t really rely on any Titans’ receiver/tight end.

Titans: Young +1, Collins -2, Britt +1

San Francisco (12th) @ Philadelphia (20th)

Alex Smith is frustrating to own.  He’s about as on again, off again as you can get.  The Eagles have shown some weaknesses in their pass defense of late.  Does this mean Alex Smith can take advantage? I think so, but I think his contributions will help Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree more than him, at least fantasy wise.  I wouldn’t start Smith in a playoff game in Philadelphia, but I would start his best two targets.  

49’ers: Smith 0, Crabtree +1, Morgan, -1, Davis +2

The Niners pass defense is erratic.  Last Monday night they shut down one of the best passing offenses in the league. They play with emotion, just like their coach.  Will they travel cross country off a emotional Monday night game and play with that same intensity? I don’t think so. McNabb has owned the Niners in his 5 career games against them, averaging 277 yards and 2 TD’s.  Jeremy Maclin is hurt so Jason Avant may have some value.  Keep an eye on Brent Celek’s injury status, but he should play.

Eagles: McNabb +2, Jackson +2, Avant 0, Celek +1

New England (29th) @ Buffalo (2nd)

The Patriots aren’t clicking on all cylinders and going to face one of the best pass defenses in the league in the house that Ralph built is not the way to get back on track.  Moss may be pissed about all this “doggin it” talk, and they may want to knock the talking heads off so I just can’t say you should sit him and you can never sit Wes Welker, but you just can’t feel confident about the situation.

Patriots: Brady 0, Moss 0, Welker +1, Watson -2

The Patriots have been pretty awful in pass defense, but the Bills and Ryan Fitzpatrick aren’t exactly passing juggernauts. Lee Evans has been useless this season. T.O. is finding the endzone again and is worth a start against a poor Pats D.

Bills: Fitzpatrick -1, Owens +1, Evans -1

Arizona (22nd) @ Detroit (32nd)

This game should be over before it starts.  The Cardinals will want to reassert themselves after an ugly loss to the 49ers and the Detroit Lions are a good team to do that against.  The only worry is that the starters will be sitting before the first 2 minute warning, but you have to start the studs.  Watch Larry Fitzgerald’s status, but he seems to be fine.  I think you can even start Breaston here.

Cardinals: Warner +2, Fitzgerald +2, Boldin +2, Breaston +1

It’s looking like Culpepper will get the start again which isn’t the greatest news you could ever hear.  The only player you can think of playing is Megatron.  Daunte threw the ball a ton, but has little to no accuracy left.  Megatron was targeted a lot, but still had a down game.  As long as he’s getting his targets I think you have to start him, especially since they will be down and throwing a lot.

Lions: Culpepper -2, Johnson +1

Chicago (8^th) @ Baltimore (5th)

I’m thinking the Bears shot their wad last week against their rival.  There is no reason to believe Cutler can go to Baltimore and do anything besides throw interceptions and get sacked.  Johnny Knox and Devin Aromashodu have some skills, but they’re too young to be consistent, especially against the Ravens. Devin Hester hasn’t practiced and even if he does I’d bench him or drop him.

Bears: Cutler -2, Bears WR’s -2

The Bears pass defense has been decent and held down the best fantasy quarterback this year last week, but like I said I expect a let down in Baltimore. That doesn’t mean you go and start Flacco, but Mason is always a solid play.  You will see a lot of Ray Rice and company pecking at the dead Bear flesh.  I hear Ravens go for the fleshy parts first; think eyes and genitals.

Ravens: Flacco -1, Mason +1, Heap -1

Sunday 4 PM

Oakland (25th) @ Denver (3rd)

Charlie Frye is starting and Zach Miller probably won’t play because of a concussion. Enough said.

Raiders: Frye -2, Anyone else -2

Kyle Orton threw the ball 28 times to Brandon Marshall.  That doesn’t leave much room for anybody else to put up any fantasy numbers.  Don’t expect the same this week against Asomugha, but he often doesn’t shadow the opponent’s best receiver so he doesn’t shut down single players like Revis does.  Play Marshall, just don’t expect insane numbers.  Last week they couldn’t run the ball to save their life.  This week Moreno should get a lot of carries and Frye will keep the Raiders from scoring so Orton won’t need to pass nearly as much.

Broncos: Orton +1, Marshall +1

Cincinnati (3rd) @ San Diego (26th)

This is an interesting game. The Bengals have been able to win on defense and rushing, but their passing game has yet to really click. I don’t see it clicking in San Diego.  The last time the Bengals traveled to the west coast they lost to the Raiders.  They will need to slow down the Chargers, by pushing them around in the running game, not trying to go toe to toe in the passing game.

Bengals: Palmer -1, Ochocinco +1

Phil Rivers has been pretty matchup proof this season.  The Bengals are tough and don’t expect a huge game, but Rivers has only missed 16 fantasy points once this year.  Vincent Jackson got back on track last week and is just too good to bench and Antonio Gates is Antonio Gates.

Chargers: Rivers +1, Jackson 0, Gates 0

Tampa Bay (9th) @ Seattle (31st)

The Seahawks pass defense has been non-existent as of late. Josh Freeman has been throwing like he put his hands up and just don’t care and he must not because many of his passes go to the other team, especially in the red zone.  But the Bucs don’t have much of a running game and they do have Antonio Bryant and Kellen Winslow.  I expect both to get a lot of looks up in the Emerald City. Start both, for reals.

Buccaneers: Freeman -2, Bryant +2, Winslow +2

Matt Hasselbeck is an injury waiting to happen, Houshmandzadeh is a bust and Nate Burleson is out.  Housh may see an uptick in targets, but he’s hard to start the way he’s been playing. Tampa Bay is worse against the run and Talib is a shut down corner so it would behoove the Seahawks to run and run and run with Forsett, not Jones.  Can you hear me Mora?

Seahawks: Hasselbeck 0, Housmandzadeh 0, Carlson -1

Green Bay (7th) @ Pittsburgh (11th)

We’ve all heard it, but it’s true; the Steelers pass defense is average without Polamalu. That doesn’t mean that the Steelers blitz packages won’t hurt Rodgers enough to keep him from going off, but it also doesn’t mean you sit him.  Donald Driver was held to just 11 yards last week, but the Packers will need to throw to move the ball.  I think Driver will get his looks.  Jennings just hasn’t been that good this season.  We could blame it on the offensive line early, but now even when Rodgers gets him the ball he’ll drop it.  He’ll get you 4-5 catches and 50 yards, but asking for more is plain silly.

Packers: Rodgers +1, Driver +1, Jennings 0, Finley +1

The Packers pass defense has been taken over by Chuck Woodson.  They are tough and don’t give up much to wide receivers.  You need to temper your expectations for Big Ben and company.  Santonio Holmes has been playing very well, but will have trouble if Woodson shadows him.  All are starts in the right situation, but be careful.

Steelers: Roethlisberger 0, Holmes -1, Ward 0, Miller -1

Sunday 8:20 PM

Minnesota (9th) @ Carolina (6th)

Carolina continues to have a good pass defense so you’ll probably see a lot of Purple Jesus on Sunday.  I’m not high on Favre out of the dome against a good defense.  Sidney Rice continues to be a stud so it’s very difficult to sit him, so I’d take the easy route and start him. Percy Harvin is still having migraines and has a late start so I would sit him unless we get some good reports.  Berrian just can’t seem to get right, he’s been mini-Jennings this year.

Vikings: Favre -1, Rice 0, Berrian -2, Harvin (check injury reports), Shiancoe -2

Matt Moore should get the start again.  Steve Smith has been doing fine with him in there, but this week he’ll probably get Antoine Winfield which hurts him a lot.  They will have a lot of trouble running on Minnesota so they’ll probably have to throw, so Smith will get his looks, but is a risky play this week.

Panthers: Moore -2, Smith 0

Monday 8:30 PM

NY Giants (27th) @ Washington (17th)

Little Brother had a huge game in a shootout loss last week, but has been inconsistent as usual. The Redskins haven’t been quite as good in pass defense lately.  We might be in store for another high scoring game in D.C. so I see Eli as a low QB #1.  Steve Smith and the recently promoted Hakeem Nicks make good WR #3 starts. Washington has been tough on wide receivers so I’d be careful about starting Boss.

Giants: Manning +1, Smith +1, Nicks +1, Boss -1

Jason Campbell has turned around his season and gets a pitiful Giants’ secondary to work against on Monday night.  I like Campbell, but no receiver is really taking over as a fantasy starter.  Fred Davis is probably the closest player right now.  Davis has been finding the end zone a lot and in the last 8 weeks the Giants have given up 86 yards a game and 11 fantasy points a game to tight ends.  Get Davis in your lineup.

Redskins: Campbell +1, Thomas 0, Moss 0, Davis +2

With the majority of fantasy leagues starting their playoffs this week, I’m going to start paring down the ratings just a little. Up to this point, I wanted to rate enough players to ensure that even the marginal teams with injury-depleted rosters had enough information to make good decisions. By now I’m hoping that almost all playoff teams have their rosters fairly well sorted out, so I don’t think it’s necessary to cover as many backup QB’s and WR’s in depth.

Don’t forget, the pass defense ratings now reflect the last 6 weeks, not the entire season. On to the matchups!

Thursday 8 PM game

Pittsburgh (19th) @ Cleveland (23th)

Santonio Holmes didn’t have any trouble against Asomugha and the Raiders secondary, and I expect continued success here against a troubled Cleveland defense. Hines Ward will likely be a gametime decision here — if he sits, upgrade Heath Miller and Mike Wallace. Not a fan of Ward here even if he plays.

PIT: Roethlisberger +2, Holmes +2, Ward 0, Miller 0, Wallace +1

Brady Quinn had a really nice game against a SD pass defense that isn’t half bad, and the Steelers defense is average at best without Polamalu (who may have played his last snap this year). Unfortunately, the looks and TD’s got spread around enough that no single receiver is particularly valuable (apart from possibly Jerome Harrison — wrong position). This isn’t a terrible matchup if you are stuck with Quinn. In return yardage leagues Cribbs can be very valuable, racking up return, receiving, and rushing yardage.

CLE: Quinn +1, Massaquoi +1, Cribbs +1

Sunday 1 PM games

Buffalo (6th) @ Kansas City (22nd)

I have to imagine that the Bills offense will rebound after getting shut down by the Jets secondary last week. The Chiefs’ defense is pretty bad, so while I still don’t recommend relying on Fitzpatrick, I think you can confidently play Owens as a WR2 or Lee Evans as a WR3 here.

BUF: Fitzpatrick +1, Owens +1, Evans +1

On the other hand, while I don’t think the Chiefs will be quite as bad as they were last week (they should at least be able to run on the Bills), I wouldn’t throw Cassel or Chambers our there this week.

KC: Cassel -2, Chambers -2

Green Bay (10th) @ Chicago (7th)

Aaron Rodgers continues to get it done against all defenses. Jennings had more receptions and yards, but Driver snagged a TD to go with his 31 yards. Driver did look a little out of sync last week, but it’s not worth worrying about yet. Jermichael Finley had his “coming out party” (seriously — coming out parties are more popular as an idiom than as an actual event — when’s the last time you were invited to a coming out party?) with 79 yards and 2 TD’s. Don’t expect that every week, but he’s definitely recovered from his injury and is playing well. The Bears are ranked fairly high but I just don’t see it mattering against Rodgers.

GB: Rodgers 0, Driver 0, Jennings +1, Finley +1

As I cautioned last week, Cutler isn’t a safe play even against bad defenses right now, and the Packers are well above average in pass defense. Hester is expected to practice on Thursday, but if he’s gimpy that further weakens the Bears offense. At this point, I have a hard time recommending any Bears — Cutler is scuttling everyone’s value. Actually, that’d be a good name for him: Jay Scutler.

CHI: Cutler -2, Hester -2, Bennett -2, Knox -2, Olsen -2

Carolina (18th) @ New England (29th)

Matt Moore is likely to start again this week in place of Delhomme, and that’s a….good thing? Bad thing? Hell, I don’t know. He’s probably less error-prone than Delhomme, but the Panthers will likely not let him take many risks in the first place. The Patriots secondary has been torched the last few weeks (most recently by the vaunted Miami pass offense), so I think Steve Smith is actually a pretty good play here. You’re relying on him breaking a long play or two, but he’s about as good a bet as anyone to do that.

CAR: Moore 0, Smith +1

The Patriots are “struggling” but the offense is just fine. They posted 448 yards against the Dolphins and should’ve scored more than 21 points if not for some untimely turnovers. Carolina still ranks highly in pass defense on the year but the more recent history tells the tale — you can throw on them. I’m expecting status quo here — 8+ receptions for Welker, and 5+ for Moss with a TD. I’ve seen team notes about the Patriots making an effort to get the TE’s involved more, but for now let’s assume it’s meaningless coachspeak and Belichick isn’t divulging valuable offensive gameplan information to the media.

NE: Brady +1, Welker +1, Moss +1, Aiken 0

Miami (24th) @ Jacksonville (12th)

I’ve gotten into the habit of writing off Chad Henne as merely competent but not productive enough for fantasy purposes. With the loss of Ronnie Brown, the Dolphins have started to give Henne the opportunity to drive the offense. Still, I’d be careful — it took 52 attempts to get those 335 yards, and that many throws by a rookie often results in 2 or 3 critical mistakes. The biggest beneficiary seems to be Davone Bess, whose skills are ideal for moving the chains with short 8-15 yard throws. He may be a legit PPR league starter now. Fasano also sneaks back into the mix as a decent waiver-level TE. The Jags secondary has improved but I wouldn’t grade them as a top unit just yet.

MIA: Henne 0, Bess +1, Hartline 0, Fasano 0

Garrard had a nice game last week with 238 yards and 2 TD’s. The problem is that he spread his 15 completions among 9 different receivers (with no receiver catching more than 3), and that makes it hard to trust the previously reliable Mike Sims-Walker. On the other hand, MSW followed up his previously worst game (2 catches for 9 yards, on the road at TEN) with a monster 147 yard game at home. I think you have to play him here and trust that he’ll be able to get open against a poor Miami secondary. The other Zach Miller is physically gifted, but he’s not involved enough to be a fantasy option yet.

JAC: Garrard +1, Sims-Walker +1, Holt 0

Seattle (30th) @ Houston (8th)

The Texans rank highly in pass yardage against, but they still allow a fairly high completion rate against, I don’t believe they are the kind of secondary worthy of a significant downgrade for your starters. That said, Seattle’s pass offense is about as inconsistent as they come, so I wouldn’t feel great about banking my season on Matt Hasselbeck. Burleson should be relatively safe here. If you’re still assuming that Carlson is your TE starter, it may be time to check your waiver wire.

SEA: Hasselbeck -1, Burleson, Houshmandzadeh -1, Carlson -2

Yikes. If you’re a Matt Schaub owner, your assignment is to make sure you have a serviceable backup ready and monitor the status reports up until Houston’s gametime. Even if Schaub is expected to start, you may consider playing a good backup over him, since the Texans may pull him if the score gets lopsided in either direction (and, of course, he may be reinjured during the game). Still, it’s very apparent that the Texans are not comfortable with Grossman in the game, so if it’s a close game, expect Schaub to play if at all possible. The upgrade/downgrade math here works out as a +2 for the matchup and a -2 for the significant risk that Schaub may miss some or all of the game. Call it a risky 0 — it’ll either be feast or famine.

HOU: Schaub 0, Johnson 0, Walter 0

Denver (4th) @ Indianapolis (27th)

The Broncos didn’t rack up that many passing yards against KC, but that was the result of a run-heavy attack after taking a big lead on the Chiefs. This game is likely to be exactly the opposite — Orton will have to throw early and often to keep pace with the Indy offense. That might result in a turnover or two, but there should also be plenty of opportunity for yards and TD’s. Marshall is the only fantasy-relevant receiver (though Royal is still an option for return yardage leagues). Scheffler and Graham split the TE production, don’t bother with either.

DEN: Orton +1, Marshall +1, Royal 0, Scheffler 0

As we’ve noted before in this space, you can’t sit Manning against even the best defenses. No backup QB, no matter his matchup, is worth risking your first round playoff matchup. At this point it’s hard not to consider Garcon a legit WR2, and if Champ Bailey is tasked with stopping Reggie Wayne, Garcon could be in for another big day.

IND: Manning -1, Wayne -1, Garcon 0, Clark 0, Collie 0

New York Jets (2nd) @ Tampa Bay (9th)

Hello, Kellen Clemens! Goodbye, Jerricho Cotchery’s playoff value! Seriously. I expect the Jets to run the ball all day long in this game. Cotchery….WR3? Blech. Not a fan. I’d rather be playing Kenny Britt or the like.

NYJ: Clemens 0 (in other words, not good is the baseline standard), Cotchery -2, Edwards -2, Keller -2

If you’re looking for the silver lining to Josh Freeman’s 5 interception game, it’s that Tampa apparently feels comfortable leaving Freeman in the starting role and letting him take chances (though I imagine that Josh Johnson has to be wondering when they started giving the QB such a long leash). Needless to say, the Jets secondary is probably better than Carolina’s, so this isn’t a matchup you want. Antonio Bryant is likely to draw coverage from Revis, so I can’t recommend him, but Kellen Winslow should get enough looks to make him a safe play here.

TB: Freeman -2, Bryant -2, Winslow -1

New Orleans (21st) @ Atlanta (26th)

Great matchup here. After weeks and weeks of Meachem getting only 1 or 2 receptions per week but somehow finding the end zone, Brees found him 8 times for 142 yards last week. I don’t think it’s premature to consider him as a co-WR2 with Henderson. Reggie Bush has been dinged up and may not play, so there could be a few more looks for everyone else.

NO: Brees +2, Colston +2, Meachem +2, Henderson +1, Shockey +1

Matt Ryan is supposed to “test” his toe in practice on Thursday and Friday, but even if he’s cleared to play, I don’t recommend relying on him. The Falcons are struggling right now, and the Saints may take an early lead. If the game gets out of hand, the Falcons may decide to let Redman finish the game. Fortunately, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez seem to be productive no matter who is at QB, so they remain safe plays here.

ATL: Ryan/Redman -1, White 0, Gonzalez 0

Cincinnati (1st) @ Minnesota (15th)

Carson Palmer owners are probably getting a little nervous by now, and with good reason. The Detroit matchup was a must-play, but Palmer had a barely adequate game against the worst pass defense in the league. The Vikings don’t have a fantastic secondary, but they do get after the QB, so I think a downgrade is in order for Palmer until we see him rebound. If Palmer is your starter, I’d definitely see who is available on your waiver wire this week. Fortunately, his poor play includes locking onto Ochocinco.

CIN: Palmer -1, Ochocinco 0, Coles -1

The Bengals have been dominant against the pass — the problem is that the Vikings have enough weapons that there should be a decent mismatch on the field somewhere. Favre gets a very, very mild -1 downgrade here. Sidney Rice is likely to garner most of the defensive attention, so he also gets a mild -1 downgrade.

MIN: Favre -1, Rice -1, Harvin 0, Berrian 0, Shiancoe 0

Detroit (32nd) @ Baltimore (5th)

Culpepper’s playing in place of Stafford, Pettigrew is done for the year, and Baltimore has been shutting down the pass since midseason. Yeah, not a great situation. Calvin Johnson gets less of a downgrade than the rest of the offense, and he’s still worth playing over any WR2 and a lot of WR1’s.

DET: Culpepper -2, Calvin Johnson -1

Remember how last week I comforted all the Carson Palmer owners by saying that he had the perfect matchup for a rebound? Yeah, that’s exactly the advice I’m going to give you Flacco owners this week. Just ignore what happened to Palmer against Detroit. No really. Even if Flacco does nothing but dump off to Ray Rice all game, he could still have a nice day.

BAL: Flacco +2, Mason +2, Heap +1

Sunday 4 PM games

Washington (16th) @ Oakland (20th)

What do you do with Jason Campbell now? Did anyone expect him to outplay Drew Brees (at least statistically) last week? If you’ve got a legit QB1 I think you play him, but if you’ve lost Matt Ryan or maybe Schaub doesn’t go on Sunday, I think Campbell is a nice high-risk high-reward option (and don’t kid yourself, the risk is always there with Campbell). Devin Thomas hit 100 yards exactly with 2 TD’s last week, but I wouldn’t rely on him yet — unless you’re in a return yardage league, in which case his combination of WR2/WR3 production plus kickoff return duty is very valuable.

WAS: Campbell +1, Moss +1, Thomas 0 (+1 in return yardage leagues), Davis 0

If you follow Twitter while watching the Sunday games, then you probably saw all the same “GRADKOWSKI!!!!” tweets I did last week. So what? If you’re playing this week, I’m assuming you’ve made the playoffs. If you’ve made the playoffs, I’m assuming your QB and WR situation is decent enough that you aren’t relying on longshots. And if you aren’t relying on longshots, then you have no business starting any Raiders in the fantasy playoffs. Well, except for Zach Miller. You can play Zach Miller. For the sake of consistency, I’m rating the rest of the Oakland pass offense anyway, but just ignore it — you don’t want the risk.

OAK: Gradkowski +1, Murphy +1, Schilens 0, Miller +1

St. Louis (3rd) @ Tennessee (17th)

See what I just wrote about the Raiders? Apply that same lesson here. Except for the part about Zach Miller. The Titans’ pass defense rating over the last 6 games took a hit because of the Indy offense, but they are still playing pretty well.

STL: Boller -1, Avery -1, Gibson -1

And conversely, the Rams pass defense over the last 6 games looks quite a bit better than they really are. Facing Cutler helps. I like this matchup for Vince Young — I’m not ready to say I’m a believer, exactly, but he’s certainly no more risky that someone like Jason Campbell. Kenny Britt is a great play here, but don’t overplay his return yardage boost — he returns kickoffs, and the Rams are not likely to score frequently. The biggest detriment to the value of the Titans pass offense is the ease with which they will gain yards on the ground.

TEN: Young +1, Britt +2, Washington +1, Scaife 0

San Diego (14th) @ Dallas (11th)

The Chargers have a legitimately tough matchup in Dallas, but Rivers has earned must-start status against any defense, as has Antonio Gates. Conspicuously absent from that introductory sentence was Vincent Jackson, who has underwhelmed over the last few weeks. It’s time to consider him just a borderline WR1 right now (or a strong WR2).

SD: Rivers 0, Gates 0, Jackson -1

Where have you been all my life, Jason Witten? The Cowboys finally got Witten involved and did it without cutting into the production of Miles Austin and Roy Williams (albeit on a day that Romo attempted 55 passes). The Chargers’ pass defense is pretty good, but I think Dallas will again have to throw early and often to keep pace.

DAL: Romo 0, Austin 0, Williams 0, Witten +1

Sunday 8 PM game

Philadelphia (13th) @ New York Giants (25th)

McNabb’s habit of throwing to RB Leonard Weaver is getting a little frustrating. Weaver isn’t quite good enough to start in most leagues, but he seems to always steal some critical yards and touchdowns from other receivers. The Giants are giving up big yardage, so there ought to be plenty to go around. Assuming DeSean Jackson returns as expected, downgrade Maclin and Avant to their previous value.

PHI: McNabb +2, Jackson +1, Maclin +1, Avant 0, Celek +2

Manning had an odd line against the Chargers — just 11 completions, and an under 50% completion rate, but he still managed 241 yards and 2 TD’s (much of that due to Brandon Jacobs 74 yard TD gallop). I’d be a little worried as the Eagles secondary is above average, but with the blitz-heavy attack, it seems likely the Giants will be able to break at least 1 or 2 long plays. Manningham disappeared last week, but for now assume he and Nicks are close in value.

NYG: Manning -1, Smith 0, Nicks -1, Manningham -1, Boss 0

Monday 8 PM game

Arizona (28th) @ San Francisco (31st)

Ahh, yeah. Expect big numbers here. Warner, Boldin, and Fitzgerald are all must starts. Steve Breaston has gotten pushed to the background a bit (and even got outproduced by Early Doucet last week), so I wouldn’t rely on him as a WR2 (but he did break a nice long punt return).

ARI: Warner +2, Boldin +2, Fitzgerald +2, Breaston -1 (0 in return yardage leagues)

The Cardinals may be a little better than their pass defense rating, but not by much. And with a legitimately stout run defense, the 49ers may be forced to go pass-heavy for the second week in a row. Crabtree can’t seem to improve on his weekly 5-6 catches for 50-60 yards. Morgan got involved again last week, but it’s too late in the season to take a chance on him.

SF: Smith +1, Crabtree +1, Morgan 0, Davis +1