Fantasy Football Advice

Sometimes everyone thinks a player is a Sleeper; they get over-hyped to the point where you can’t draft them because people are reaching to acquire him. In one of my competitive 12 team leagues last season a leaguemate picked James Davis in the 8^th round. Being the mature person that I am I made fun of him for making that pick.

He felt like he was a genius and declared that he’d been doing that in all his drafts. I don’t think he felt like such a genius at the end of the year.

With the retirement of Kurt Warner it’s hard to tell where people are going to value Matt Leinart for Fantasy in 2010. In all likelihood Anquan Boldin is going to be traded. Ken Whisenhunt has been trying to transition the offense toward a more run-oriented scheme. We saw glimpses of Matt Leinart running the show this season and it wasn’t pretty. There is reason for optimism, however.

Stepping into an offense in the middle of the season or during a game is a nearly impossible task. It’s a huge advantage knowing that you’re going to be “the guy” and having all summer to work on things. One would assume that since Matt Leinart blew his first opportunity he would not take this one for granted. Coming out of USC Leinart was a celebrity. He had the opportunity to not take being an NFL Quarterback seriously and did so. A lot of people would’ve done the same thing, they just don’t want to admit it.

Each quarterback throws a slightly different ball. Receivers need time to adjust, particularly to a left-handed quarterback. Leinart’s receivers should have ample opportunity to do so.

There are positive aspects to the Cardinals becoming more run-oriented. Defenses won’t simply be able to key in on the passing game. In fact if they run the ball effectively defenses will stack the box, setting them up for play action. A running offense should lead to Leinart throwing fewer interceptions (see Brett Favre 2009).

Even if Boldin leaves, Leinart will still have plenty of targets to throw to including Larry Fitzgerald. The Cardinals offensive line is fairly solid and the team might even bolster it during the offseason. Personnel-wise Leinart will have favorable talent surrounding him barring injuries.

For all the above mentioned reasons Matt Leinart could deliver solid value for us in 2010. There’s still a possibility that the Cardinals could secure a veteran QB in the off season. I might even prefer that for Fantasy because it’ll drive Leinart’s value down significantly and it could make him a late round steal.

The Super Bowl is near and as usual I’m ready for it way before it starts.  I’ve tried my best to stay away from the hype, but it will be hard come the weekend.  I really want to hear more about how Hank Baskett thinks his wife is hotter than Reggie Bush’s girlfriend.  And how many times Dwight Freeney was asked about his ankle at one setting (96 if you were wondering).  And I’m really glad that TMZ is there so I can know exactly what time players leave clubs.  So I’m hoping to catch up on It’s Always Sunny In Philadelphia and maybe buy a fish tank instead of hearing more about Reggie Wayne’s neglected snake (no this isn’t going to be a Greg Oden post).

Here are some tasty morsels from around the league:

Brett Favre: After the Favre lost in the NFC championship game he made sure someone took a picture of his grotesque ankle so he could frame it, and I guess, place it over his mantle.  I am of two minds when it comes to these photos.  Yes, it’s amazing that he could play effectively with that deformed ankle, but at the same time, why do we need photos of it?  To prove how tough you are?  To show that if you hadn’t been hurting the outcome might have been different?  To elevate the Favrestique to God-like proportions?  Get over yourself Brett, you are great, but until you cut a finger off so you can play, keep your injury-porn to yourself.

Jay Cutler: It’s hard not to like Jay Cutler next season with Mike Martz coming in as offensive coordinator.  Cutler had a horrific year on many levels, but still ended up as the 12th best fantasy quarterback, ahead of the likes of future Hall of Famer Kurt Warner.  I don’t have faith in Cutler as a leader and I’m not betting on him to be the Bears’ savior, but Martz’s track record for making quarterbacks fantasy studs is too good.  He took a 34 year old Jon Kitna of the Detroit Lions and made him a 4,000 yard quarterback which gave Roy Williams over 1300 yards receiving and defensive back Mike Furrey over a thousand yards!  This bodes well for Hester, Aromashodu, Knox, and even Forte who will be catching a lot of passes, but it doesn’t bode well for young Mr. Greg Olsen.  Martz must have been diddled by a tight end in his formative years, because his offense is where TE’s go to die.

Dwight Freeney: He probably won’t practice all week and then he’ll test his ankle on Sunday to see if he can go.  I reckon we’ll see him play on third downs for as long as he can and then come out as his ankle slowly expands to Favre proportions.

Jerome Harrison: The Browns GM doesn’t think Harrison has the size to be the main back in Cleveland, but didn’t have any trouble with him being overused in the last few games because he was the Browns only decent player.  Maybe they should worry about getting a quarterback, wide receiver, tight end, and an upgrade at every position on the team before worrying about Harrison.  They could go out looking for a larger back or give James Davis more work to offset the toll on Harrison.  But I still think it’s Harrison’s job to lose and as long as he stays healthy he should get the bulk of the carries.

Jeremy Shockey: He practiced yesterday and looks like he will play and most probably injure himself again while celebrating a 10 yard gain on 3rd and 15.

Michael Vick: He says he is a top 10 quarterback and the Eagles say they want to keep him for next season.  Both lies.  Vick should believe he’s that good, but no way do the Eagles plan on keeping him as a high paid third string QB.  The Rams are looking like the front runner in the Mike Vick sweepst . . . uh, baby shower bingo.  Vick would have to be an upgrade over the craptastic law firm of Bulger, Boller and Null.  Even if he retains his erratic QB’ing skills his legs and ability to air it out will help free up Steven Jackson.

Brandon Marshall: Josh McDaniels tipped his hand when he sat Marshall down for the last game of the season.  Everybody and their dog knows that Marshall is out of there.  Couple that with his history of ass-like attitude, or assitude, they will have to give away a player who just had 101 receptions and 10 touchdowns.

Wes Welker: He just had surgery on his knee because the swelling had to go down before plunging the scalpel in. All realistic timetables for his full recovery have him coming back mid-season even though he seems to think he’ll jump off the operating table and do cartwheels all the way home.  Trying to project next season’s playing time for Julian Edelman and Wes Welker will be tough.  If the team and Edelman are doing well, they will probably make sure Welker is 110% before letting him play, which would probably involve a time machine of sorts.

Matt Leinart: It doesn’t look like the Cardinals will look for another QB to compete for the starting job this off season.  Ken Whisenhunt has given Leinart the thumbs up and they will live and die with him.  Leinart flashed some ability in preseason and there is no way they will give him the same responsibilities as Warner.  With Wells showing signs of running back goodness and Boldin possibly being traded, we will see a much more balanced offense out of Arizona.  Whiz took a young quarterback in Roethlisberger far and could do the same with Leinart, but don’t expect huge numbers from him just because he plays for the Cardinals.

Clinton Portis: He still hasn’t been cleared to think too hard due to his last concussion.  Even if the Redskins keep him they will have to find some insurance because there is no way he plays a whole season.  Willis McGahee is probably looking pretty good to them about now.

There may be a few of you doing a playoff draft or a salary cap league so I decided to put together a rankings/draft sheet.  It’s a tricky thing, playoff leagues.  You have to account for the chance that the team your player is on could lose quickly, no matter how good you think the team is.  I am ranking them with some thought to who might win, but more toward how I think they’ll play.

Don’t forget to join us in our two playoff leagues: you can join our Sporting News playoff league and/or our playoff challenge at NFL.com.

Here we have QB’s and RB’s.  Look for the WR’s, TE’s, K’s and D’s soon.

Quarterbacks:

There are a ton of good QB’s in the playoffs this year.  I wonder what you need more to be a successful NFL team, a good QB or good RB?  Rhetorical question.  With all the talent here much depends on how many games you will get out of them.  For my money Aaron Rodgers has the best shot of playing the most games, but that is a guess.  If you get him and he loses in the wildcard round you better have a backup! It might be best to wait on a QB since they are so deep and grab a starting RB you think will contribute the longest?

1. Peyton Manning: Whatever the Colts’ “psyche” is, I could care less. Peyton is a machine and he runs a machine and unless the other team disrupts that machine’s mechanics they won’t lose.  Their state of mind when playing won’t change.  Of course you won’t be able to use him in the first round!

2. Philip Rivers: Is Rivers better than Drew Brees? Can’t say for sure, but I like Rivers’ team more and the Saints will have tough competition to get to the championship game.

3. Aaron Rodgers: ARodg ended up the #1 fantasy QB for 2009 and his team has been playing lights out. Rodgers looks like he has at least a slim chance of playing in every playoff game.  If you have faith in the Packers you can’t do much better.

4. Drew Brees: The Saints have lost three in a row and don’t play in the first round.  He has a ton of upside, but if he doesn’t get into the championship game he was a wasted pick.  Like every player you have to do a little Carnac work, if you like the Saints chance of going to Miami.  Grab him.

5. Brett Favre: If the Vikings hadn’t gotten home field I would have him lower, but I think they righted the ship enough and The Favres like the domes.

6. Tony Romo: He has a ton of risk attached to him.  The Cowboys haven’t won a playoff game since 1896.  But they have been looking too good to blindly say they will choke.  Romo would be the steal of the playoffs if he could lead his team to Miami.

7. Donovan McNabb: Not too long ago I had the Eagles going to the bowl, but oh how fickle fate can be according to Beth Orton and any team that doesn’t win the Super Bowl.  They could be sitting at how eating bean dip and Fritos, but they got spanked in Dallas and now have to go back there.  I think they have a good chance to win this game, but not if they play anywhere close to last weekends performance.

8. Tom Brady: He dropped pretty far in my rankings based solely on Wes Welker’s injury.  That could be a bit reactionary of me, but Welker leaves a pretty big hole in the offense.  If Edelman can come up big they could do something, but that is a lot to ask.

9. Kurt Warner: Could be the absolute steal of the playoffs (I know I said that about Romo already, sue me!), but I think his first game is too risky to put all my eggs in Warner’s Power Chair basket.

10. Joe Flacco: Flacco is a great backup choice if you are going with a QB with a first round bye.  He gets a poor Patriots secondary in the wildcard round and you could get lucky and the Ravens could go deep in the playoffs.

11. Mark Sanchez: I think the Jets will beat the Bengals so that is the only reason Sanchez is ahead of Palmer, that, and the Jets pass defense.

12. Carson Palmer: He’s starting.  That’s his biggest upside.

13. Matt Leinart: Warner is old.

14. Kevin Kolb: If you have a big roster he has a lot of upside if McNabb goes down.

15. Billy Volek: Same as above.

Running Backs:

There are very few stud running backs in the playoffs.  Would you rather have Joseph Addai or Ray Rice?  Well, next year’s draft will probably be a different answer than what you’ll get here.  The Ravens could beat the Pats, but it will be tough and then they’d get a very good team on the road.  The playoffs bring out strange game plans and sometimes backup RB’s get stats you wouldn’t expect.  It’s a very good idea to horde as many backup/RBBC type backs as you can.

1. Adrian Peterson: Elite back on a good team.  Bit of a no brainer.  Will they go all the way? I have no idea, but they have a decent chance.

2. Joseph Addai: Donald Brown doesn’t look like he’s going to take too much away from Addai and the guy knows how to get into the endzone. Not a sexy pick, but a reliable, William H. Macy kinda pick.

3. L.T.: Another TD machine on a good to great team. He’ll be rested for his goal line vulturing.

4. Ryan Grant: Again, the Packers are my, cross my fingers and give them a shot team.  I am not good at calling games.  If I was I’d bet on them and be able to keep Sallie Mae from stalking me, bitch, but I’m putting my fantasy bucks on them, with a lot of hedging.

5. Ray Rice: He’s unbelievable and if I thought the Ravens had a shot to go all the way he’d be in the top 2.  Yes, McGahee exploded on the Raiders, but Rice is still the guy in Baltimore.

6. Thomas Jones: His chances of playing more than 2 games are very slim, but I do think he’ll get those 2 games and will get his carries. And now that I don’t overlook him he’ll go for 10 yards and a loss.

7. Marion Barber: This is how shallow the running backs are this year.  I don’t love Marion Barber, well, he does have a nice smile, but the Cowboys have about as good a chance as most of the NFC teams and Barber is the goal line back.

8. Beanie Wells: I wish they didn’t start with the Packers, but like I said, anything can happen. If they move on they know what they need to do and Beanie will be a big part of that.

9. Cedric Benson: I don’t have much faith in the Bengals winning, and the Jets defense has been stout, so he has a shot at a razztastic game and also being done.

10. Pierre Thomas: This is a risky pick with his rib injury, but he will have time to rest it and like I said, there aren’t many starting RB’s worth their salt.  Not that PT is worth his salt, and it’s not like I have any idea what that means, but he’s on a good team and he should be the starter.

11. Brian Westbrook: He’s the starter again.  Not sure if that was the best idea, but it’s what is happening.

12. Felix Jones: He’s a home run kind of back and you have to get fairly lucky to win in playoff leagues.  A couple long runs from him can win a league for you.

13. Tim Hightower: He still sometimes vultures touchdowns from Beanie and even though his touches have gone down he is still getting work.

14. Darren Sproles: L.T. has kept Sproles from getting much work this season, but he is still a threat to go all the way at anytime and if you are in a league like Sporting News where return yardage counts he will give you some automatic points.

15. Sammy Morris: Who is the starter for New England? I’m giving Morris the nod, but my opinion, sadly, is irrelevant.

16. Donald Brown 17. Reggie Bush 18.Willis McGahee 19. Kevin Faulk 20. Shonn Greene 21. Chester Taylor 22. LeSean McCoy 23. Laurence Maroney 24. Mike Bell 25. Brandon Jackson 26. Leonard Weaver 27. Fred Taylor 28. Tashard Choice

Steven Jackson has yet to practice this week.  The same thing happened last week and he went for over a 100 yards and a TD, but the cold weather in Chicago could do something to his back.  I’m a doctor, remember? I believe if he starts he is good for his 100 yards, so pay attention to Razzball for updates Sunday morning.

Desean Jackson: Fraction Jackson is officially out. Upgrade Celek, Maclin and Avant. That is all.

Steve Slaton: He looks like he’ll sit out tomorrow’s game. Chris Brown will get the start with Ryan Moats probably filling the dash side of their retarded version of Smash and Dash.

Deangelo Williams: He didn’t practice this week, but it looks like more of a week long siesta than anything else. He should go against the Bucs who he destroyed the last time out.  But be sure to check Razzball to see if he goes.  If he can’t go I would start Jon Stewart liberally. Get it?

Donald Brown: Brown is down and out for week 13.  I’m going to say he is one of the biggest disappointments of the fantasy season.  His injuries are worrisome for his draft status next year.  But this year Joseph Addai benefited, especially this week.

Justin Forsett: He tweeked his quad in practice and was sent to the trainer to think about what he had done. I mean really, I can’t believe he’d do something like that out in public!  He wants to play and he is only questionable, but I would be one very worried wart about starting him with Julius Jones coming back. 

Kurt Warner: He shared reps with Leinart and has adult-onset game time decisionitis.  I have him and am worried about the lateness of his game.  If you have a good backup it might be worth playing him if we don’t hear anything before said backup plays.

Michael Turner: He won’t play tomorrow and will be replaced by Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood.  They should share time fairly evenly, but Norwood is better than Snelling so I’m giving him the thumbs up, Caesar style.

Cedric Benson: He will start against Detroit and is a good play.  Bernard Scott is out so Larry Johnson will be Benson’s backup.  I could see LJ having a decent game against Detroit if you are hurting at running back or like starting jerk faces.

Jerome Harrison: Jennings will probably get the start, but I think with 10-12 carries Harrison will match Jennings’ output with 15-20.  Neither is a great choice, but I like Harrison more.

Brent Celek: He has practiced all week and should go.  Hopefully he’ll be able to hang onto the ball.

I can tell you I usually only watch snippets of most football games, but I watched that whole 99 yard game winning drive by Vince Young and it was neato.  I was impressed by Young’s arm and not just his ability to run.  He’s won 9 straight over the past 5 years or so and he’s making a case to get into fantasy lineups.  He is definitely worth a pickup if you’ve been running schmohawks out there on a consistent basis.  I grabbed him in a league I have Garrard and Alex Smith in.  If I owned Cutler I’d be grabbing whoever has a pulse.

Jay Cutler: So he’s averaging 2 picks a game, he has no offensive line and he’s a bit of a wuss.  He needs a line like Denver’s to give him time and security because when he is pressured he starts dancing and doesn’t set his feet to throw and then the ball goes wherever, usually into a defender’s hands. He gets the lowly Rams next week so it’s hard not to start him, but you don’t have to be happy about it.

Marshawn Lynch: Still stuck in Least Mode he has been passed by Fred Jackson, and got whiplash watching it happen. Marshawn isn’t really worth having on your team unless you want Fred Jackson’s backup; what was that guy’s name again?

Matt Forte: Three touchdowns in 11 games equals .2727272727 . . . touchdowns a game.  That looks like a big number, but really it isn’t.  All you math majors can explain it to the others.  So yeah, Matt Forte is usable in ppr leagues, but otherwise the #4 overall adp was a bit optimistic.

Percy Harvin: It wasn’t hard for Viking receivers to have decent games against the Bears yesterday, but Harvin just keeps putting together solid games. He’s high in the rookie of the year voting for good reason, but I’m putting all my money on Heyward-Bey.  Al Davis has never steered me wrong.

Chris Chambers: I didn’t think he was going to be worthwhile ever again.  He looked slow and barely worth avoiding with your car, but he keeps putting fantasy worthy games out there.  Denver will be tough next week, but if you are hurting in WR depth and he’s still around, scoop him up; hopefully before he becomes road kill.

Matt Leinart: He didn’t look horrible, but he can’t seem to throw the ball deep (sorry Fitz).  If you own Warner you really need to grab him.  Concussions, as we’ve heard a lot recently, are nothing to play with and Warner is old enough to have grand kids, so just play it safe.

Brett Favre: Good Lord Favre!, this guy must have sold his soul to Jerry Jones.  I’ve never seen a better fit than Favre and the Vikings.  It took him about 2 games to get comfortable and start dominating.  If someone pinned me down and grabbed a sweaty jock strap and told me they’d make me eat it if I didn’t tell them who I thought was the best team I’d say the Vikings, and then I’d say all you had to do was ask! Jeez.

Kenny Britt: 7 receptions for 128 yards and a game winning catch move him up your waiver priority.  Young seems to like Britt and he is showing that he’s the best receiver on the team.  Justin Gage might need to file for unemployment.

Jamaal Charles: Right now he is my Most Valuable Free Agent Pick Up (MVFAPU).  The Razzball favorite is leading many teams down the stretch.  He totaled 147 yards and had a TD and had a decent run back or two for you freaks in return yardage leagues. You can thank us by sending all cash donations in care of Doc at Razzball HQ, Razzballia USA.

Justin Forsett: Another great game from Forsett should knock Julius Jones into the background. He’s not on your waiver wire, and if he is, your league depresses me.

Chris Johnson: Picture me doing a fake yawn, yes, another ho hum 186 total yards and a touchdown.  What’s that, his 10th 85 yard run this season? He’s on pace for over 2,000 yards rushing and 15 touchdowns.  That’s slightly above average.

LaDainian Tomlinson: He’s getting pretty lucky with all the goal line looks he’s had.  Can’t really knock him for that, but he hasn’t had a 100 yard game in long while.  He’s worth getting out there for his TD potential, but he can easily have a down game if he doesn’t get across the goal line.

Antonio Bryant: If he can stay healthy he can help you down the stretch. Freeman is locking onto Winslow and Bryant and making both of them viable fantasy players. I may be a little biased since Bryant won me leagues last year, but he can be an elite receiver under the right circumstances.  Since these aren’t the right circumstances, he can be a workable #3.

Larry Johnson: He ran for over 100 yards and Bernard Scott got dinged up, but Cedric Benson should come back next week. He could take over Scott’s spot, but I’m not picking him up unless I’m really hurting at RB.  Remember, they were playing the Browns who lost Shaun Rogers during the game. My arthritic great aunt Melba could rack up 100 yards on them.  No, she’s not a cracker!

Michael Turner: Well, gotta call the Falcons stupid for this one.  There was no reason to rush Turner back with Snelling and Norwood ready to go.  Turner reinjured his ankle, but we don’t have any real news yet.  Snelling should still be the starting back, but Norwood will get a pretty big role as well. Turner will have to show me he’s healthy before I recommend starting him again. There’s an old saying in Tennessee — I know it’s in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can’t get fooled again.

Matt Ryan: He hurt his foot. We won’t know how bad for a while, but hopefully you listened to us and traded him for a case of peeps and a half eaten Sanchise Dog.

Desean Jackson: Another concussed Eagle for fantasy players to worry about. There is a good chance he’ll be on the sidelines next week.  The Eagles already got Westbrook knocked out twice and if it happens to DJax they’ll never hear the end of it.  If he does sit Jason Avant will be a nice pickup.

Rock Cartwright: Hmmm, I guess there was a reason he was the third string running back.

Terrell Owens: Well, he may make a believer of me yet.  I hate to say good things about The egO, but he is playing like he has something to prove, which he does.  It’s not like you can pick him up, but these last two games look like a trend.  Get him in your lineups.