Fantasy Football Advice

Week 16 had a lot of big scorers come from odd names: Brandon Jackson, Jabar Gaffney, Darren Sproles, and not Curtis Painter. Hopefully you sat your Colts except for Austin Collie and started only players who scored lots of points!

I know not everybody’s league is over, including the RCL leagues, so we’ll be going into as much detail about injuries and matchups for week 17 as we have for the whole season.

Our fantasy contest will be decided tonight and it looks like Guy and Asdrubal Bastardo will be vying for the prize. If Purple Jesus can score 23 or more points Mr. Bastardo can win at the wire.  Good luck to you both!

Here are my thoughts on Sunday’s games:

Jonathan Stewart and the Carolina Panthers punched the Giants in the mouth and then teabagged them after they were knocked out on the ground. If Stewart didn’t have D Willy to contend with he would be a top 10 back.  Williams and Stewart are only the sixth running back duo to go for a thousand yards a piece in the same year.  I’m guessing John Fox is kicking himself for sticking with Delhomme for so long, or at least he should be.

Peyton Manning: He kept his helmet on and sang “Put me in coach, I’m ready to play!” while Caldwell ignored him and put in Curtis Painter to prove that our old timey surnames should determine our careers.

Jerome Harrison: He carried the ball 39 times which set a Browns’ record and had a touchdown and 148 yards. He will have some competition from James Davis next year, but he is every down material.  We’ll have to see how things play out in Cleveland, but he will be high in a lot of rankings this off season. Including ours.

Brandon Jackson: Jebus! What happened up in Green Bay? The Seahawks are making a run for worst team in the NFL. As I was needing Aaron Rodgers to throw for a few touchdowns instead he was handing off to Grant and Jackson. Oh fantasy football Gods, why are you so fickle?

Brandon Jacobs: He has gone from a bull to a steer (they have their junk snipped).  Ahmad Bradshaw is the better of the two and should be the one you want next year.

Laurence Maroney: This is why you don’t own Patriot running backs.  Maroney fumbles on the goal line and he’s done. Sammy Morris became the fantasy back for the rest of the game.  Another situation to just stay away from unless Belichick takes a leave of absence.

Mike Sims-Walker: He was only targeted three times.  Hrm?  He wasn’t on the injury report and the Jags needed to throw, so it doesn’t make much sense.  Maybe today was just a bad day for hyphenated fantasy players.

Wes Welker: He was hurt early in the season and missed 2 games and has 122 receptions, breaking his franchise record.  I think that’s an average of 36.5 receptions a game.  You may want to check my math.  The guy is a ppr monster.

Cedric Benson: His injury slowed down a huge fantasy season, but he helped a lot of teams this year and his 140 yards against the Chiefs wasn’t too bade. He should be good to go once again next season.  Bernard Scott will push him, but he should keep the starting job.  All this next year talk is making me sad.

Jamaal Charles: He had a tough matchup against a good Bengals’ defense and still totaled 124 yards. We were confident he could do it against weaker teams, but this game makes it easier to see him as an every week starter next season.  As my mom used to say, “he’s a keeper!”  She always loved my brother more!  Next week he should run over Denver.

Steve Smith: Eli Manning was horrid just like the rest of his team, but Smith was one of the few bright spots for the Giants. He will be high on many waiver wire pickups of the year lists.

Arian Foster: One week too late! Foster had 97 yards and a touchdown the week after being benched in the first quarter after fumbling. I don’t want to get into how stupid Kubiak is.  When you argue with fools, well, you know.  The Texans running backs are a mess going into the off season.

Justin Forsett: Once again he looked better than Julius Jones.  It’s too late for him this year, but he should pass Jones as the #1 back next year.  Now, if  Matt Hasselbeck can suck less.

Matt Hasselbeck: Yes, he’s thrown 4 interceptions, but that was against the Packers in the frozen tundra and what not; cut him some slack!  Wait, what’s that? He also threw 4 last week at home? Against the Bucs!? Oh, what’s up with that?

Ryan Grant: I haven’t been a Ryan Grant believer this season, but he went and showed me! His 97 yards and 2 touchdowns could have been much better if Brandon Jackson hadn’t vultured 3 TD’s!  I’m never going to think he is an elite back, but he gets the job done.  I’ll still be wary of him next year, but you can call me an idiot if you want.

Robert Meachem: Another waiver wire success this year.  He got into the end zone once again. He gets a TD every 4.75 catches. How he gets three quarters of a catch is a mystery, but Meachem is a TD magician.

Roddy White: He came on strong for the fantasy championship game with 139 yards and 2 touchdowns.  The Falcons will be back next year and White and Ryan will be had at good value.

Cadillac Williams: He ran for 148 total yards against a pitiful Saints run defense.  He still can play, but there is no clear winner in the Bucs backfield.  Josh Freeman has a chance to be a decent QB and could help Ward or Williams to some decent numbers next year, but both are such injury risks it will be impossible to recommend either.

Thomas Jones: He continues to put up numbers even with Shonn Greene cutting into his carries. The Jets offensive line should get a lot of credit for how well the 31 year old Jones has played this year, but Jones continues to stay healthy.  Greene had a nice game as well and it will be interesting to see how long Jones holds him off.

Quinton Ganther: He’s not very good.  If he even makes a starting roster next year I would be surprised.

Pierre Thomas: It finally looked like he might have a decent game, well, for him, he did, but he was injured and didn’t play in the second half. Sean Payton, Bill Belichick and Gary Kubiak are fantasy RB coolers.

(Editor’s note: Make sure you join our week 16 contest.  If you don’t, people will laugh at you!)

Josh Morgan: The captain in you should take a shot of Morgan as the new aerial assault in San Fran has been turning coal into diamonds; if you’re a cagey owner, you just might find some in your stocking.  Jimmy Raye’s system has clearly benefited Morgan who has seen a jump in targets and production.  Last week he was targeted eight times (one behind Crabtree) catching seven balls for 61 yards and a touchdown.  Though his numbers in week 14 dipped slightly, he had six receptions in both week 12 and 13.  Though I wouldn’t bet the farm on Morgan, if you are an owner looking for a safe flex play without a tremendously high ceiling, I would take Morgan against the Lions.  Over his last four games he has been hovering around 5-6 receptions for 50-70 yards and his chances of scoring are relatively high this weekend.

Dwayne Bowe: Hey kids, Bowe knows drugs…and football.  Fresh off a four game suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy (banned diuretic), Bowe had a strong showing with four catches for 56 yards on ten targets.  As much as I hate Dwayne Bowe (and I really hate Dwayne Bowe) you should grab him this weekend if he is somehow still on waivers.  He has a nice matchup against the Bengals who were absolutely torched by Vincent Jackson last week.  Who knows, perhaps his work ethic has improved as it is much harder to throw up after meals than it is to take a weight loss drug.

Mike Wallace: Many will be shopping at Wally world this holiday season but buyers beware; Wallace has only caught two passes in each of his last four games for a total of 156 yards.  His only two touchdowns over the last four weeks came this past weekend off his two receptions for 79 yards.  Yes, the win against the Packers may be the spark that Pittsburgh needs and yes, they do favor the pass which challenges everything I’ve ever known about Pittsburgh football, but to me he is a very risky play against Baltimore in one of the most important fantasy weeks of the year.  He is still a distant third on the team in targets, commanding only 11 over the past three weeks (Ward has 28 and Holmes has 31 over that same span), so before you jump on the Wallace wagon, proceed with caution.

Justin Gage: If success is “gauged” on touchdowns in your league, than Gage is “Justin’” time to bring you a fantasy championship.  Gage is truly a playmaker and he hasn’t had much time to reap the benefits of the newly polished Tennessee offense.  Starting in the 3^rd receiver spot on Sunday after coming off a back injury, Gage was targeted three times (2^nd behind Washington who had 5), catching two passes for 43 yards and two touchdowns.  Now that’s efficiency.  Expect Gage to see an increased role moving forward and he has a pretty good matchup against San Diego this weekend.

David Anderson: The Texans’ third receiver may actually have some safe play value in deep leagues.  Anderson’s role has certainly increased as a result of Daniels’ injury and he has been fairly consistent over the second half of the season.  Over the last three weeks Anderson has accumulated 15 targets.  Last week Anderson caught five passes for 34 yards and he has caught at least four passes in each of the last three games.  Don’t get me wrong, I think you have to be really desperate to use him, but if the other options are picked over he can at least give you some stability in deeper PPR leagues.

Devin Aromashadu: The man who caught eight passes for 76 yards and a touchdown in week 14 was much less impressive this past weekend, catching only two passes for ten yards.  The good news is that he was targeted ten times though three of those targets were intercepted.  The hapless Jay Cutler likes Aromashadu, but lately he’s been as responsible with the football as Tiger Woods has been with his marriage.  At this point I can’t say that I recommend Aromashadu, but he could be a risk reward play for you daring owners against a Minnesota pass defense that was ripped up by Matt Moore. P.S. check Hester’s injury status before investing.

Greg Camarillo: The Dolphins’ possession receiver has looked good lately and though I still think that Bess is the man, Camarillo’s consistency could come in handy, especially in PPR leagues.  This past weekend he led Dolphin receivers with ten targets, catching five passes for 46 yards.  Over the last three weeks, Camarillo is only one behind Bess in total targets with 27 and he had a monster game against Jacksonville in week 14, catching seven passes for 110 yards.  Camarillo’s lack of touchdown production will keep his ceiling low, but he may be able to provide a solid 8-12 points or more against Houston this weekend.

Target Trends

1. Player with the most targets last week

-Steve Smith (Car) (15)

2. Players with fewer targets last week than Deion Branch (10)

-Santonio Holmes, Marques Colston, Mike Sims-Walker, Brandon Marshall, Randy Moss, Donald Driver, Larry Fitzgerald

3. Brandon Marshall has the most targets over the last three weeks (48)

4. Michael Crabtree has the 6^th most targets over the last three weeks (32)

5. New Orleans Saints’ receiver target leaders over the last three weeks

-Meachem (24), Colston (22)

6. Players with equal to or fewer targets than Malcom Floyd over the last three weeks

-Randy Moss, Desean Jackson, T.O., Donald Driver, Reggie Wayne

Mike Sims-Walker has been downgraded to doubtful.  I don’t doubt that he is real or anything, but I doubt that he’ll play in a nice matchup at home.  You have to downgrade Garrard even though MSW was nearly non-existent last week, in reality he was there, completely tangible.  Just his presence helped Garrard find other receivers. But do upgrade Mike Thomas against a poor Miami secondary.

Mike Bell: He didn’t practice on Friday and it looked like he wasn’t going to play but now some Saints beat writer is saying he’ll go even without practicing.  I’m guessing the beat writer was drunk and bloated on crayfish and alligator meat, but I’ve still got to take away some of my love for Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush if Bell plays.

Tim Hightower: He has had a thumb injury for a couple weeks so he will still play on Monday night, but he only had 6 carries and 1 reception to Beanie Wells’ 13 carries against Minnesota.  The 49ers have a tough run defense so I would be careful about using either, but I do believe Beanie will finish the season very strong while Hightower becomes the third down back.

Donald Brown: He is out again and speculation is he has broken ribs.  If you need to make a move that might help you in the playoffs and you’re not in a keeper league I’d go ahead and drop Brown.  I doubt they’ll risk hurting him anymore when they are already so far ahead.

Vince Young: He didn’t practice on Friday, but says, “Heck yeah, you know me better than that. I’ll be out there.” Um, I’m not so sure we do know you better than that VY, but look for him to go and hand the ball to Chris Johnson a lot.

Michael Turner: He’s listed as questionable which is kind of like calling Al Davis’ draft picks questionable.  Turner will not play.  But who will start and who will get the fantasy points against a poor Saints rush defense? Why are you asking me?! Oh, right, well, Norwood should get the start again, but his hip doesn’t seem 100% and he won’t get goal line carries.  I’m not too keen on either, but I’d go with Snelling if my hand was forced.

Matt Ryan: He’s also listed as questionable when he actually has a hot intern’s chance of not getting hit on by Mike Tirico of playing.  Chris Redman will get the start again and shouldn’t hurt Roddy White which is all we really care about.

Matt Schaub: There’s been no indication that he’ll be limited against Seattle so you have to start him.  Of course he could get slammed on that recently separated shoulder, but thankfully the Seahawks don’t get to the quarterback that often.

Tom Brady: He didn’t practice much this week and is listed as questionable with injuries to his ribs, shoulder and finger.  It’s hard not to believe he’ll go, and it’s hard to sit him unless you have a very good backup and even then it’ll be tough.

Steven Jackson: He practiced a little bit on Friday which is better than the last 2 weeks.  And by “little bit,” I mean he jogged from the hot tub to the burrito cart and back.  Just like always, you have to start him if he does.

Justin Forsett: He isn’t on the injury report so we should get a chance to see how he will be used the rest of the season. I expect a fairly even split between him and Jones and neither is a great start, but Forsett would be the only one I would take a risk on.

DeSean Jackson: He practiced all week and is a good start after taking a week off with a concussion. The Giants’ pass defense has been ugly as of late.

Albert Haynesworth: His off again, on again season is off again and add to that DeAngelo Hall is out and you have a perfect shizz storm for the Redskins to get beat in the black hole and that would have to hurt. Does this mean you go and start Michael Bush and Heyward Bey even though he is out? No, but I do think if you were looking to spot start the Skins defense I would have second thoughts.

Jeremy Maclin: He practiced on Friday and is listed as questionable. He’ll probably play, but he’s in the late game so you may want to be wary.

Carnell Williams: He is listed as questionable and will be a game time decision.  I’d stay away from the situation.

Percy Harvin: He has yet to practice due to migraines.  This has happened before, but never for such a long time and Coach Major Dad said Harvin couldn’t go over the game plan for the week.  There is a chance he won’t go so pay attention to Razzball for the news on Sunday morning.

Devin Hester: He has yet to practice and doesn’t look like he’ll play which will leave Charles Woodson free to cover Greg Olsen.  Don’t start Olsen.  He won’t do well.

Matthew Stafford: He is out and Daunte Culpepper will get the start.  Calvin Johnson isn’t the greatest start, but Culpepper shouldn’t hurt him too much.

So this week’s strategery has a new format to completely disorient and befuddle you! The first change is that I have added DVOA, which is a system developed by Football Outsiders to measure the true value of a defense.  I like it to help offset the fantasy football points allowed to QBs/RBs which is easily skewed.  As a whole I believe these four statistics; yards allowed per game, fantasy points allowed, yards given up per attempt, and DVOA help average these defenses into a ranking I feel comfortable with.  The good thing with this chart is you can see each individual statistic and ranking if you like one more than another.

I have also changed it so the top of the chart has the worst defenses and the bottom the best.  So as you can see in the first row of the passing defensive chart Tennessee ranks 32nd in yards per game, 32nd in fantasy points, and so on and on.  And then you take a look at their opponent, Jacksonville, and you can feel pretty good about playing Sims-Walker and Garrard.  So the teams on the far left column are the defenses and then just right of them are the offenses with your fantasy players hidden in there somewhere.

Take a look and if you have any questions be sure to ask! (more…)