Fantasy Football Advice

Brandon Gibson - Gibson was a guy on my list last week after receiving nine targets as a result of Burton’s season ending injury and now he is back on after receiving a monstrous 17 targets on Sunday.  Only Welker was targeted more often than Gibson though Welker did much more with his targets; he caught 15 passes for 192 yards compared to Gibson’s five catches for 61 yards.  However, despite Gibson’s touchdown drop which cost his team a chance at overtime, his sheer number of targets over the last two games has been staggering.  In fact, Gibson has amassed 26 targets over the past two games compared to teammate Donnie Avery who only has 14 targets in his last three.  Here is a short list of players who have fewer targets in the last three games than Gibson has had in his last two: Jennings, Sims-Walker, Driver, Burleson, Ochocinco, Boldin, Vincent Jackson, and Marques Colston.  On paper Gibson looks like filet mignon at the Golden Corral compared to his waiver wire friends, but before you get a half a Snickers bar in your pants remember that the one throwing him the rock is none other than…KYLE BOLLER! @#$%.

Mohammed Massaquoi - Vowel master Massaquoi is another repeat offender on the targets list after a four week hiatus.  Honestly, who would have thought the Brown eyes were capable of scoring 37 points?  Regardless, Massaquoi continued his trend of being the most heavily targeted Browns receiver on Sunday, receiving 12 targets, hauling in five for 115 yards and one touchdown.  It’s nice to see Massaquoi being productive, partly because I have owned him for the past five weeks, but also because he is clearly the most talented receiver on the beleaguered Browns offense.  I’d like to say that Quinn has found his niche and that niche is Massaquoi, but perhaps we should see how he handles the Bengals this weekend (who have given up the 7^th most passing yards this year) before making any Earth shattering, outrageous claims.  Either way, Massaquoi is worth picking up if you have room on your roster.

Earl Bennett – yet another widely available guy with promise going forward who has been on this list before.  Bennett was and always will be second to the target hogging Hester, as he received seven targets to Hester’s ten last week.  However, despite the fewer number of targets, Bennett faired better statistically, catching five passes for 57 yards compared to Hester’s four catches for 18 yards.  Bennett actually leads the Bears in yards per catch (12.8) and he continues to maintain some consistency in a Bears offense that has no choice but to throw the ball, though often to the opposing team.  Over the last four weeks, Bennett is averaging over four catches and 52 yards per game.  The only problem with Bennett is that he is allergic to peanuts and touchdowns.  Well I don’t know if he is allergic to peanuts but I’m pretty sure he is allergic to touchdowns since he has not scored one all year.  Bennett could be a viable option down the road as the Bears face the Vikings, Rams, Packers, Ravens, and Lions the rest of the regular season who are 25^th, 21^st, 7^th, 17^th, and 31^st in passing yards given up respectively.

Pierre Garcon - I’ll admit that a few weeks ago I compared Garcon to Collie and claimed that Collie was a bit safer to start, especially in PPR leagues.  However, Garcon has been dominating the targets and finished only one shy of Wayne last week with nine.  Garcon also had two red zone targets (as many as Wayne) while Collie only managed one target the entire game, turning it into an 18 yard catch.  Garcon finished the game with six catches for 108 yards and over the last four games Garcon is averaging four catches for 68 yards and has scored one touchdown.  Over that same span, Collie is averaging four receptions for 37 yards.  Over the last three weeks, Garcon ranks 12^th among receivers in total targets and has actually caught up to Wayne in that category; Garcon has 30 to Wayne’s 34 and has five red zone targets to his seven, respectively over the last three weeks.  For now, it seems that though Collie and Garcon have their place in the elite Colt offense, the French fireball currently has the hot hand.

Mario Manningham - Super Mario has reemerged over the past two games, recording 17 targets to the seemingly favored Nicks’ 13.  Last week Manningham led the team with 11 targets (Smith had 8, Nicks had 7).  Over the last two weeks, Manningham seems to have won back favor by hanging on to the ball and he is averaging six catches for 88 yards, the highest statistical average on the team (Smith 6/63, Nicks 4/52).  Manningham is still available in around 20% of all leagues and could play an important role in the Giants’ upcoming games against Dallas, Philadelphia, and Washington.

Jeremy Maclin - Maclin has been a target machine over the last three weeks, compiling 28 which are leaps and bounds above the likes of Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston, and Mike Sims-Walker.  He has also been productive with those targets, averaging five catches for 58 yards over the last two games and six receptions for 70 yards and a touchdown over the last two.  Though Jackson is clearly the big play guy, Maclin is surely getting his share of looks and with Westbrook out his value only increases.  Look for Maclin to continue to improve on his already daunting pace and he could be a good guy to pick up before the trade deadline as the Falcons, Giants, and Niners are amongst Philly’s remaining opponents.

Lance Long - though he had a rough day on Sunday, only managing three targets (the fewest amongst KC receivers), I believe he is still a good sleeper pick as he has been productive over the last three weeks.  Over that span, Long is 2^nd behind Bowe in targets (18) and is averaging four receptions for 43 yards.  It’s tough to tell who is going to get the ball in this offense but with Bowe out, look for either Chambers or Long to emerge.  Long has great promise and I even like him a bit more than Chambers in PPR leagues.

Useful Target Trends

1) Ravens receiver targets over the past three weeks

-Mason 34

-all other receivers combined 13

2) Bengals receiver targets over the past three weeks

-Ochocinco 23

-Coles 22

3) Calvin Johnson is 6^th in receiver targets over the last three weeks with 34

4) Davone Bess is 16^th in receiver targets over the last three weeks with 27

5) Notable players in the top 15 for red zone targets over the last three weeks

-Robert Meachem (4)

-Jeremy Maclin (4)

-Bernard Berrian (5)

-Josh Morgan (5)

-Pierre Garcon (5)

Did you see “The Wizard” with Fred Savage? It’s this cheesy early 90’s movie with a climactic Nintendo showdown. Mario Brothers III was unveiled at the end. It was like, the future or something. I remember being so pumped about that game. In fact if you weren’t pumped about Mario Brothers III then I hate your face.

As I discussed last week “Sleeper Math” is changing with the season and will now focus on the best players to roster (mostly RB’s). It’s not easy to unearth diamonds in the rough this time of year but I’m up for the challenge. Waive goodbye to your backup Tight Ends, Quarterbacks, and marginal Team Defenses and say hello to no name running backs who might just win you a title (and be a ridiculously good keeper for next season).

Worth a Waiver Claim

Fred Jackson – Probably not available but get him if you can. Marshawn Lynch left Sunday’s game with a shoulder injury. Not sure what that means going forward other than Jackson’s value just shot up.

Rock Cartwright – No, I’m not talking about return yard leagues here people. Portis and Betts are ruled out for next week. There’s an outside chance that Cartwright could wind up starting for the rest of the season. In the meantime he’s going to get all the touches out of the backfield because he’s all there is.

Bernard Scott – He shouldn’t be on waivers but a lot of you out there have boneheads in your league. Clearly if he’s still available you should claim him. It’s unclear whether Benson will play this week against Cleveland.

Worth Grabbing in Free Agency (after Waivers clear)

Danny Ware – Jacobs got injured on Sunday. It’s tough to say what the extent of it will be. Regardless Ware is an excellent stash right now. He could  be a big surprise to close out the season.

Brandon Gibson – Jones will be taking an extensive look at him in his Targets article tomorrow. He is getting the ball thrown A TON to him.

Maurice Morris – Kevin Smith had a good game but Morris is still worth stashing because he’s talented and Smith’s been injured this season.

Chris Jennings – He had just under 10 points in PPR this week. It’s miraculous that Jamal Lewis is still out there. If he gets hurt Jennings could find his way in to your starting lineup.

Lex Hilliard – I thought he’d get more touches in his first outing but I’m sure he’ll get more involved in the offense. Miami’s offense can easily support two productive running backs (as they’ve shown all season).

Mohamed Massoquoi – He’s probably not available in your league. If he is on Waivers I wouldn’t put a claim on him, personally. I do think he could be useful toward the end of the season but you shouldn’t need to slide him in there as a starter.

Darren MacFadden – I’m not that excited about him but if he’s a free agent I’d throw him on your bench and wait to see if he does anything.

Deep Sleepers/Stashes (Drop your Snuggies to pick them up)

Tyrell Sutton – He is drawing a lot of praise in Carolina. Unfortunately that backfield is really packed right now. If either Williams or Stewart goes down he could put up useful digits though- keep your eyes open.

Rashad Jennings – Not going to be a factor unless Maurice Jones-Drew gets hurt. If that happens, however, you’ll be glad you own Rashad Jennings.

Ryan Moats – It’s evident now that Slaton’s won his starting job back. Moats has once again become a stash. The good part is he showed that he can be productive when given an opportunity.

Jerious Norwood – I guess we’re just going to wait forever for him to get healthy. With Turner still out (more than likely) you could do worse than stashing Norwood just in case.

Brandon Jackson – Just when you think he’s irrelevant again… Jackson had 6 catches for 65 yards on Sunday (he’s a running back, not a receiver). If Ryan Grant goes down to injury he could be valuable. For obvious reasons he’s a better stash in PPR leagues.

You can follow me on twitter: Razzball_Drew

Mohamed Massaquoi: in addition to having the majority of all vowels in his name (except for that elusive “Y”) Massaquoi also gets the majority of targets.  This past week he was targeted 9 times (4 more than Robiskie, the next closest receiver) and had two targets inside the five yard line.  By now it’s clear that Massaquoi is the stud of the Brown’s offense though unfortunately that’s like being the toughest guy in France or having the best looking goiter in the nursing home.   Either way, Massaquoi’s production potential makes him a must snag off the waiver wire or you could try to sneak him in with a multi-player trade.  Through this point in the season, Massaquoi has accounted for 11% of his offensive targets, this despite being nearly invisible until his monster week 4 performance against Cincinnati.

Greg Jennings: for now Donald’s still in the driver’s seat with 5 more targets than Jennings to date.  However, despite having a fairly quiet game this past Sunday (5 catches for 52 yards) Jennings was actually targeted 9 times (six more than Driver) including a pass inside the five yard line.  Though Jennings continues to get looks, he is an increasingly problematic start considering the fact that the Packers have gone to a shorter passing game in an effort to keep Rodger’s on his feet.  This, coupled with the fact that it is going to get pretty damn cold in Green Bay, leads me to believe that short route Driver will continue to be the more logical start.   Though many experts will tell you to have patience with Jennings, it may not be a bad idea to trade him as he still commands 2^nd to 3^rd round value (but won’t for long). (more…)

Steve Smith had been dragging his (NYG) all over the field.  It was slowing him down, but he finally bust a move so funky the aftermath looked a little like this: Y ) N G (   It was an ugly sight.  Smith is on pace to gain 47,005 yards and score 1,767 touchdowns, which would break a lot of records I’ll have to look up later.  Be happy you picked him up and keep starting him and hope he can keep getting 11 receptions, 134 yards, and 2 touchdowns every game!  The chances you can get value for him in a trade are nil so be happy you own him instead of Steve Smith (CAR).

Here are some other tidbits I noticed on Sunday:

Rashard Mendenhall: He was in the dog house and now he’s in the penthouse.  Actually, Razzballer, The People’s Champ saw him at Chick-fil-a the day before the game.  So maybe he was the fox in the hen house last night.  165 yards and 2 touchdowns isn’t chicken feed.

Darren McFadden: There are a few things in life I can’t abide, and one of them is a running back that I have on my fantasy team going against the worst rushing defense in the league getting stuffed like a chile pepper in a Tex-Mex cantina.  I know that JaMarcus Russell is God-awful, but give me a friggin break!

Calvin Johnson: 133 yards and no TD’s.  He’s the best wide receiver in the league and could do this every game if the Schwartz was with him, but he wants to run a balanced offense, pfflfbt!

Kenny Britt: The Titans had to throw a lot which means they lost, but also means Britt ended up with 100+ yards.  He’s not going to get that every week, but he has home run ability.

Peyton Manning: Four 300 yard games in a row to start the season. He’s a machine, but also the epitome of a goober. Mmm, a goober machine.

Justin Gage: One catch for 15 yards isn’t what I would call pro bowl resume material.  The Titans aren’t very good so they may have to throw a lot the rest of this season and it’s looking like Washington and Britt are going to get a lot of work.  I’ve had my vote in for Washington and I think I’ll stick with it.

Ronnie Brown: The Bills were steamrolled by the Henne led Dolphins.  Brown and Williams ran for over 200 yards.  While Henne handed it off or watched Brown hand it off.  Brown is too legit to quit.

Julius Jones: Start him at home.

Mohamed Massaquoi: He caught eight passes for 148 yards and looked good doing so. Pick him up.  Drop Gage and Holt and your whole stable of old/schmohawky wide receivers for him.

Mike Sims-Walker: He’s legitimate.  He’s also probably gone from your wire, but if you’re in a shallow league you may still be able to scoop him up with a net or even go all Last of the Mohicans on him.

Pierre Thomas: Back to back good games with no boo boo.  Get on the Thomas the Tank Engine choo choo.   Then something about a fat guy wearing a moo moo.  If Sean Payton is smart Mike Bell shouldn’t get a huge workload when he comes back.

Steve Slaton: After he fumbled yet again I was ready to tear up my autographed photo of the S.S. Fumbler, but then he had a reversal of fortune and had easy sailing through the calm Oakland defense.  I can’t say that Slaton is back since Oakland looked like they were waiting for the cops to pick up their coach and call the game. I may shop Slaton after this game, but I still wouldn’t give him up for some macaroni salad.

Marques Colston: He was shut down by Darrelle Revis. Don’t start your wide receivers against this guy.  Oh, the Jets play Miami next week, so nevermind.

Jerome Harrison: He had 152 total yards and should continue to see plenty of work with Jamal Lewis in the infirmary.

Austin Collie: He was the rookie who got the TD this week and he also got more receptions, but not more total yards, than Pierre Garcon.  There is no lock when it comes between those two.

Matt Forte: He ripped off some long runs against the Lions and has a bye week to heal up his little nicks and bruises.  He isn’t going to be unstoppable this year, but he is going to produce.

Ray Rice: 152 total yards isn’t too shabby.  He is the best player in the Raven’s backfield and I’d look to grab him.

Week 5 Byes: Bears, Packers, Saints, Chargers