Fantasy Football Advice

Those of you who actually played real tackle football are familiar with the phrase “play to the whistle,” meaning give your best effort until the play is over. The human temptation is to lose focus and intensity, even when you’re still in the mix to win.

Even if your league doesn’t have keepers you should be stashing the best possible players all the way up until your finals week. You never know when a player is going to come out of the woodwork. There is a tendency to peg your lineup as “set” and ignore the fact that at running back in particular, players go from “unknown” to “stud” overnight.

In my Week 13 Sleeper Math column I recommended that readers pick up Quinton Ganther, a player I had never heard of before and who wasn’t even on an NFL roster until November. He just put up 22 for me in my most competitive league this Sunday and I’m sure many of you benefited from his sudden rise to stardom as well. He is a perfect example why even if you are in position to be in the playoffs and have a strong roster you still finish and fight for every inch.

Worth a Waiver Claim

Quinton Ganther – He shouldn’t be on your waiver wire but if he is claim him (duh).

Maurice Morris – Kevin Smith has a torn ligament in his knee so he’s almost certain to be out the rest of the season. Maurice Morris filled in earlier in the year when Smith was out and played well. He is a terrific addition to your roster as a possible flex play and potentially a great keeper in leagues where you don’t have to make a decision until before the 2010 draft.

Arian Foster – Gary Kubiak must play fantasy football. That’s the only thing that could explain the random shuffling he does in the backfield. He’s now announced that Arian Foster will get a chance to be the feature back with Moats and Brown being relegated to backup roles. So this no name instantly becomes worthy of a waiver claim.

Josh Cribbs – Another announcement completely out of left field. Cribbs, the return league stud, has been more and more involved in the offense as the wildcat quarterback. Now Mangini has publicly announced that he is considering throwing Cribbs in to a traditional running back role. This will remain a murky situation with the endgame unclear but the upside is clearly enormous. I am throwing in a claim on Cribbs in many of my leagues.

Willis McGahee – A lot of people dropped him and for good reason after weeks of ineptitude. The Ravens are playing the Bears week 15 so he should be a really solid flex start in most every format. If he is on waivers I’d spend a claim on him just for next week’s start (it’s the playoffs!!!!)

Reggie Bush – He probably only got dropped in shallower leagues because of the injury. In PPR leagues in particular he is a great acquisition for the stretch run.

Ahmad Bradshaw – Might’ve been dropped in your league by a frustrated owner due to several weeks of ineptitude. He looked really good last night against the Eagles so maybe he’s turned the corner with his injury issues.

Greg Camarillo – Quietly is having a really good season at 50^th overall in Yahoo rankings. Caught 7 passes for 110 yards on Sunday and has a quarterback (Chad Henne) who continues to play better and better. In PPR he could help you out.

Worth Grabbing in Free Agency (after Waivers clears)

Jason Snelling – There were rumors that Michael Turner would return on Sunday but he was kept out again. Chances are Turner will return for week 15 but if he doesn’t, Snelling would be a nice start for you.

Darren McFadden – If not for the Gradkowski injury I would have McFadden as worthy of a waiver claim and I would still consider doing so in Keeper formats. Unfortunately for the rest of this season JaMarcus Russell will be under center and I expect the offense to return to ineptitude. McFadden probably won’t warrant a flex start in weeks 15 or 16.

Chris Jennings – Outplayed Jerome Harrison against the Steelers and saw an upgrade in his touches. I don’t think I’d start him in week 15 but he’s certainly worth stashing in case.

Leonard Weaver – You simply can’t ignore him anymore. Weaver has become the short distance back for the Eagles as well as a receiving threat out of the backfield. He gets a lot of traditional work also as a straightforward runner. If Brian Westbrook doesn’t return for week 15 and you need another flex starter I would seriously consider playing Weaver.

Deep Sleepers/Stashes (Drop your Snuggies to pick them up)

Kenneth Darby – He got some playing time on Sunday and produced. At the end of the day though this is simply a “hope Sjax gets injured” play.

Kahlil Bell – I’ll stop hating on Forte and the Bears when they stop earning it. Lovey Smith probably won’t smarten up and spread the workload around but if he does Bell could be productive.

Tyrell Sutton – DeAngelo Williams appears fully healthy but it’s possible he could re-aggravate it.

Rashad Jennings – Same rationale as always; bet that MJD’s heavy workload will catch up with him.

Willie Parker – Mike Tomlin has alluded to making changes in the wake of the Steelers losing streak but we haven’t seen any tangible evidence of that. Mendenhall has made the most of his opportunity but there’s always a chance Tomlin will give Willie Parker an opportunity to be the main man again.

You can follow me on twitter: Razzball_Drew

Worth a Waiver Claim

Jerome Harrison – So I guess he’s the guy, not Chris Jennings going forward. Unless you have one of the top few spots you probably won’t be able to acquire him but either way it’s worth a shot. In PPR he could be a poor man’s Ray Rice going forward. I would take a whole team full of poor man’s Ray Rice’s.

Robert Meachem – There’s been too many good games in a row to doubt him any more. Unfortunately he could’ve been had as a free agent almost all season and now you’ve got to use a claim on him. His matchups down the stretch and the targets he’s currently receiving warrant it.

Antonio Bryant – Remarkably he’s STILL on waivers in a lot of leagues. Had a big year last year and despite the slow start has begun to really turn it on. Good matchups upcoming also. Throw down a claim on him.

Steve Breaston – Another player that I doubt is on waivers but if he is you have to love his potential down the stretch.

Sammy Morris – Bill Belichick is back to his old tricks again. Maroney has been extremely effective since becoming the primary ball carrier (other than the occasional fumble) but he was almost non-existent in the second half of the game this Sunday. Morris got a lot of touches and it looks like he might be on his way to becoming the primary back in New England once again.

Justin Forsett – A ton of people dropped him because Julius Jones was returning from injury. Not surprisingly Jones was totally ineffective on Sunday but given the majority of the touches. Forsett scored a touchdown and made the best of what he was given a chance to do. He deserves to be the starter there and I will be surprised if Mora doesn’t realize that. In Keeper Leagues in particular he’s a great acquisition.

Worth Grabbing in Free Agency (after Waivers clears)

Willie Parker – Rashard Mendenhall had a “slight” injury but the team claims he’ll be good to go for Thursday’s game. Even so we’re looking at a short week here so there’s less time for him to heal up. If for some reason he can’t play, or if he does an aggravates his injury Willie Parker will be ready to step in as the feature back.

Lex Hilliard – Still hasn’t had the type of production I’d anticipated being the second fiddle in a run happy scheme but that wouldn’t discourage me from stashing him. Ricky Williams does have a lot of miles on him so the odds of injury are high.

Maurice Morris – Still one of my favorite stashes in case Kevin Smith goes down. This offense is legit with Stafford and Johnson in the lineup.

Chris Jennings – He didn’t get nearly the number of opportunities I’d anticipated and Jerome Harrison’s cemented his role as the primary back in Cleveland. Jennings is still a great stash on your bench in case the situation changes.

Darren McFadden – Justin Fargas is still getting most of the touches in Oakland but McFadden’s talent could shine through in the final few weeks. Brad Gradkowski’s got the offense looking respectable again so it might be safe to own Raider’s now.

Quinton Ganther – I had this no name on here last week as a deep stash but the surprising number of touches he got on Sunday warrants him moving in to this category. Rock Cartwright just hasn’t done as much with his opportunity as I assumed. Who knows, Ganther might sneak his way in as the top dog by season’s end.

Deep Sleepers/Stashes (Drop your Snuggies to pick them up)

Kenneth Darby – Steven Jackson suffered from back spasms again last week but played and was productive. Any time a running back is battling injuries the value of his backup instantly goes up. You never know…

Kahlil Bell – It’s obvious that carrying the entire workload at running back is taking a toll on Forte and his production. I doubt Lovie Smith will smarten up and start giving Bell a decent number of touches. He is an explosive player though and certainly worth hanging on to in case something changes.

Tyrell Sutton – DeAngelo Williams was a surprise inactive on Sunday. One would assume that he’ll be back in action shortly but you never know. Sutton’s a great guy to own if that happens.

Rashad Jennings – The Jaguars don’t really split the touches so should something happen to MJD expect Jennings to be the work horse. Given his lack of touches this season he should be able to handle it.

Ryan Moats – Slaton should be back this week but in deeper leagues you could do worse than stash Moats. Coach Kubiak benched Slaton earlier in the season because he was fumbling so there’s a chance he could lose his job.

Brandon Jackson – If Ryan Grant gets injured Jackson will be the man in Green Bay, particularly in passing situations. So in PPR he’s obviously more valuable.

You can follow me on twitter: Razzball_Drew

If you’re observant one thing you’ll notice is that past the “Waivers” section I almost completely ignore receivers. Earlier on in the season you can make the argument for stashing wideouts because legitimate studs emerge from the embers on a regular basis. As the Fantasy season unwinds, however, the game changes.

Heading in to the Playoffs we want big producers- CEO’s, not Middle Management. The reality of the NFL is that as a receiver if you haven’t emerged by now as a focal point of your teams offense the odds are stacked against you doing so down the stretch. There will always be a few standouts worth grabbing but by and large I’m going for backup running backs.

The collective workload of a season takes its toll on all players but probably none more so than running backs. Injuries start to pile up like crazy and non-contending teams, though they won’t admit it, often err on the side of caution and sit their questionable starters in order to avoid long term injuries. Every season we see studs come out of the woodwork this time of year; players we’ve never even heard of. If you’re going to unearth a big time producer in Fantasy from here on out it’s almost certainly going to be a running back.

My first column here at Razzball was entitled “Ditch the Snuggie.” I rant and rave constantly about the idiocy of stashing marginal receivers, backup tight ends, and quarterbacks you’re not going to play. I’m telling you right now you need to take a look at your roster and purge it of these types of players. In a vacuum I know it might seem stupid to drop players that are well known for no-name backup running backs but cagey moves like that win you leagues.

Worth a Waiver Claim

Fred Jackson – As I said last week he shouldn’t be on Waivers but you never know…. Marshawn Lynch is looking more and more irrelevant under Perry Fewell.

Jason Avant – I can’t see DeSean Jackson playing next week. I can’t believe I’m saying this but Jeremy Maclin might be the best Eagles receiver in 2010. Avant has been getting his looks as it is but with Jackson out the targets should increase even more, particularly on the deep balls.

Antonio Bryant – He’s still floating around out there on Waivers in a lot of leagues. At this point you have to grab him He’s still floating around out there on Waivers in a lot of leagues. At this point you have to grab him if you can.

Jerious Norwood – Yes……finally he’s relevant. Looks completely healthy right now, played great on Sunday (including a touchdown), and Michael Turner got hurt. To top it all off Matt Ryan looks like he’ll be out next Sunday which means Chris Redman will be dumping it off a lot- even better for this scatback/PPR monster.

Lex Hilliard – I know he didn’t bust out but I don’t care. In deeper leagues especially you have to jump all over the opportunity to grab him. He will be relevant down the stretch as his touches increase. Plus Ricky Williams isn’t 100% healthy himself.

Chris Brown – I hate to even put him on this list but he’s getting goal line carries on an explosive offense. He could become a viable flex starter if this continues as crazy as that sounds. But knowing Gary Kubiak I have no clue how this might play out; Ryan Moats’ days in Houston may not be numbered…

Worth Grabbing in Free Agency (after Waivers clears)

Sammy Morris – Got a lot of touches against New Orleans. Unfortunately Maroney looks like he’s going to retain the goal line touches going forward but if he coughs the football up you never know… the job was Morris’s earlier in the season.

Willie Parker – He got some touches against the Ravens. I don’t see him being that productive unless Mendenhall goes down but he was a starter before so you can’t totally write him off- especially not now that he’s getting fully healthy.

Maurice Morris – Kevin Smith had a good game but Morris is still worth stashing because he’s talented and Smith’s been injured this season.

Chris Jennings – I still think he’s going to take over for Jamal Lewis by the end of the season.

Darren MacFadden – He is looking pretty healthy coming off injury. Downside is the backfield is crowded in Oakland and there’s not much to go around in the first place. But if anyone’s going to emerge as the feature guy it’s him. He’s just a superior athlete.

Deep Sleepers/Stashes (Drop your Snuggies to pick them up)

Quinton Ganther – Who the…….? He’s the backup to Rock Cartwright. I even considered putting him on my list of Free Agents to snag and I would have if Portis wasn’t coming back potentially down the road.

Kenneth Darby – Steven Jackson was his usual dominant self on Sunday. But with the Rams completely out of contention you have to question whether they’ll roll Jackson out there should he aggravate his back or accrue another injury. In PPR especially this could be a good stash.

Kahlil Bell – Matt Forte’s just not that good. Sorry Bears fans, I know how angry you are after finding out Cutler’s not good either. Don’t be surprised if the Bears start to feed this young stud the rock at some point.

Eldra Buckley – I’m not just putting him in here because he scored a touchdown. The touches haven’t been there for him but if McCoy continues to be the only back his odds of getting fatigued increase exponentially. As an Eagles fan clearly I don’t want him to get injured or anything but you never know….

Tyrell Sutton – Should DeAngelo Williams or Jonathon Stewart get hurt you’re going to love this guy you’ve never heard of- tons of speed/playmaking ability.

Rashad Jennings – Not going to be a factor unless Maurice Jones-Drew gets hurt. If that happens, however, you’ll be glad you own Rashad Jennings.

Ryan Moats – It’s evident now that Slaton’s won his starting job back. Moats has once again become a stash. The good part is he showed that he can be productive when given an opportunity.

Brandon Jackson – Betting against Ryan Grant staying healthy… I’ll let you do the Math.

You can follow me on twitter: Razzball_Drew

Did you see “The Wizard” with Fred Savage? It’s this cheesy early 90’s movie with a climactic Nintendo showdown. Mario Brothers III was unveiled at the end. It was like, the future or something. I remember being so pumped about that game. In fact if you weren’t pumped about Mario Brothers III then I hate your face.

As I discussed last week “Sleeper Math” is changing with the season and will now focus on the best players to roster (mostly RB’s). It’s not easy to unearth diamonds in the rough this time of year but I’m up for the challenge. Waive goodbye to your backup Tight Ends, Quarterbacks, and marginal Team Defenses and say hello to no name running backs who might just win you a title (and be a ridiculously good keeper for next season).

Worth a Waiver Claim

Fred Jackson – Probably not available but get him if you can. Marshawn Lynch left Sunday’s game with a shoulder injury. Not sure what that means going forward other than Jackson’s value just shot up.

Rock Cartwright – No, I’m not talking about return yard leagues here people. Portis and Betts are ruled out for next week. There’s an outside chance that Cartwright could wind up starting for the rest of the season. In the meantime he’s going to get all the touches out of the backfield because he’s all there is.

Bernard Scott – He shouldn’t be on waivers but a lot of you out there have boneheads in your league. Clearly if he’s still available you should claim him. It’s unclear whether Benson will play this week against Cleveland.

Worth Grabbing in Free Agency (after Waivers clear)

Danny Ware – Jacobs got injured on Sunday. It’s tough to say what the extent of it will be. Regardless Ware is an excellent stash right now. He could  be a big surprise to close out the season.

Brandon Gibson – Jones will be taking an extensive look at him in his Targets article tomorrow. He is getting the ball thrown A TON to him.

Maurice Morris – Kevin Smith had a good game but Morris is still worth stashing because he’s talented and Smith’s been injured this season.

Chris Jennings – He had just under 10 points in PPR this week. It’s miraculous that Jamal Lewis is still out there. If he gets hurt Jennings could find his way in to your starting lineup.

Lex Hilliard – I thought he’d get more touches in his first outing but I’m sure he’ll get more involved in the offense. Miami’s offense can easily support two productive running backs (as they’ve shown all season).

Mohamed Massoquoi – He’s probably not available in your league. If he is on Waivers I wouldn’t put a claim on him, personally. I do think he could be useful toward the end of the season but you shouldn’t need to slide him in there as a starter.

Darren MacFadden – I’m not that excited about him but if he’s a free agent I’d throw him on your bench and wait to see if he does anything.

Deep Sleepers/Stashes (Drop your Snuggies to pick them up)

Tyrell Sutton – He is drawing a lot of praise in Carolina. Unfortunately that backfield is really packed right now. If either Williams or Stewart goes down he could put up useful digits though- keep your eyes open.

Rashad Jennings – Not going to be a factor unless Maurice Jones-Drew gets hurt. If that happens, however, you’ll be glad you own Rashad Jennings.

Ryan Moats – It’s evident now that Slaton’s won his starting job back. Moats has once again become a stash. The good part is he showed that he can be productive when given an opportunity.

Jerious Norwood – I guess we’re just going to wait forever for him to get healthy. With Turner still out (more than likely) you could do worse than stashing Norwood just in case.

Brandon Jackson – Just when you think he’s irrelevant again… Jackson had 6 catches for 65 yards on Sunday (he’s a running back, not a receiver). If Ryan Grant goes down to injury he could be valuable. For obvious reasons he’s a better stash in PPR leagues.

You can follow me on twitter: Razzball_Drew

Game (Day) Theory: Sleeper Math Week 11

Formula:

Rating = Amount of Talent (Individual + Team Support) + Opportunity

Greetings Razzballers! We have come to the end of the trading season in Fantasy Football. This week is the last opportunity to move players and shuffle your roster in almost all leagues. So I will shift this column to align with what’s happening in Fantasy.

Beginning next week I will eliminate Tier’s I and II other than occasionally pointing out players I think are due for improvement or regression, just for kicks. Instead I will focus on Tier III players who are likely to be out there and available to claim on waivers or pick up via free agency.

At the beginning of next season I will once again resume Sleeper Math’s three tiered system because then you can actually make trades to grab those players. As an aside I would like to let everyone know that the writer’s here at Razzball have been talking a lot about next season already. We will have very extensive pre-draft rankings, downloadable cheat sheets (for PPR and standard), and discuss the top sleepers quite extensively. We are also going to discuss keepers in the offseason.

Tier I

Drew Brees 20 (10+10) – I really wish he’d stop finding his way on to this list since I own him in my most competitive league. He just hasn’t delivered consistently but I love his chances of rebounding (combined with the cupcake schedule) going forward.

Marques Colston 18 (9+9) – Partner in crime and another player who keeps finding his way on to this list. I lust Colston for all the same reasons as Brees. If the price is right feel comfortable about pulling the trigger.

Calvin Johnson 18 (9+9) – I’m as sick of having to put him on this list as he is of being on it and you are reading about him. His second game back was better than the first. He didn’t re-injure anything so you have to think he’ll only get more healthy from here. Stafford’s health also continues to improve. Calvin’s projections for this week (at least in Yahoo) aren’t very good so this would be a nice final opportunity for you to get him on the cheap.

LeSean McCoy 18 (8+9) – He’s the only player to move all the way up from a Tier III Sleeper to Tier I guy. I don’t have an award for that but if I did he’d get it. Some people might question placing this much value on him but he’s the only horse in the stable in Philadelphia; it’s questionable whether or not Brian Westbrook will even play at all the rest of the season. It’s very possible that you’ll think you’re giving up too much to get him but in reality you’re still buying production on the cheap.

Tier II

Steve Slaton 16 (9+7) – He’s moved in the wrong direction the last few weeks. There are a lot of question marks about whether he or Ryan Moats is going to be the man going forward. The playoff schedule is a cakewalk and Slaton’s got boatloads of talent; I’d pay what his value is right now to get the upside.

Justin Forsett 15 (8+7) – He is slated to get the start for the upcoming week. Don’t be surprised if he becomes the full time starter. This past Sunday he tore it up for over 20 points. I see him as a double-digit contributor if he remains at the top of the depth chart. He doesn’t have the best matchup this week but after that there are some weak defenses coming his way.

Kevin Walter 15 (7+8) – in PPR. I’m just going to repeat what I said last week. This guy is still super undervalued and he could be a really nice flex starter for you in deeper leagues from here on out: “The Texans are a high powered offense and their passing game continues to be a strong source of Fantasy points. Walter is a poor man’s Wes Welker. In PPR that’s definitely a valuable asset to your team. Walter battled injuries earlier in the season but is getting more and more productive each week.”

Correll Buckhalter 15 (8+7) – For some reason he barely touched the football on Sunday. He did have a fumble early but I don’t see why McDaniel’s would strip him of opportunities entirely after that. It shouldn’t cost you that much to trade for him so I think he’s worth grabbing.

Tier III

Jason Snelling 15 (7+8) – In deeper leagues you should be using a waiver claim on him. Michael Turner might be out for multiple weeks; in fact it looks like he’s going to be despite the faux-optimism his coach is throwing out there.

Jerious Norwood 14 (7+7) – He was such a popular stash preseason, especially in PPR. Word on the street is he’s finally healthy. If that’s the case he could see some action while Turner’s out. Probably not worth a waiver claim but I’d snag him in free agency if there’s room.

Bernard Scott 14 (7+7) – Here’s what I said last week: “Cedric Benson is getting a ridiculous amount of carries right now. He has shown no signs of breaking down but you have to wonder how he’s going to hold up late in the season. Scott is a really nice stash in case he goes down.” I can’t say it any better this week.

Larry Johnson 13 (7+6) – I question whether or not Larry Johnson will step in there and start in Cincinnati right away. Unless Marvin Lewis announces otherwise I’m sticking with Bernard Scott as my recommendation for the player likely to hang on to the starting gig. He’s still worth stashing if on free agency, however.

Maurice Morris 14 (8+6) – Another week, another poor performance by Kevin Smith. The reports on him continue to get more and more negative. When Morris has gotten a chance he’s done really well. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Lions get fed up with Smith’s ineffectiveness and give Morris a shot.

Rashad Jennings 13 (8+5) – The gauntlet of injuries to stud running backs this past Sunday reminds us all that any player can go down at any time. Jennings really has no one competing with him for touches should something happen to Pocket Hercules. Stash away if you have space.

Danny Ware 13 (7+6) – What’s not to love? Jacobs and Bradshaw are sitting in front of him- both are big time injury concerns. That offensive line will create opportunities for him if he gets his chance.

You can follow us on twitter: @Razzball_Drew, @mgeoffriau, @Razzball