Fantasy Football Advice

Who is that, who is that, who is that who is going to outscore the New Orleans Saints?  Nobody, that is who or whom or dat; I dunno.  In between commercials and The CSI Players, Drew Brees picked apart the Indianapolis Colts secondary while Peyton Manning did the same except for one errant throw that went the other way for a Saints touchdown.  And that was the game. Good night, or morning, or grief.

I was fairly confident Manning would gut it out, and when he didn’t my whole world view crumbled and I spiraled into a depression of Steven Wright proportions. Well, not really.  I was surprised though.  All the talk about Manning possibly being the greatest ever will have to be put on hold.  This game doesn’t mean he can’t work his way back into that conversation, but what this game really did was shoot Drew Brees right into the middle of that great quarterback debate.  His numbers are right up there with Kurt Warner’s and after winning a Super Bowl he is assured Hall of Fame talk unless he takes the Tiger Woods/Mark McGwire path to Grandma’s house (which is also the name of a brothel/HGH bar.

This game didn’t make any huge splashes fantasy-wise, but it’s hard to believe both teams won’t be scoring points next season.  Yes, the year after a team wins, loses, or chokes away a Super Bowl they have trouble not sucking, but Manning and Brees will keep their teams competitive at the very least.  Reggie Bush will be discussed a lot this off season.  He is getting paid way too much for the numbers he puts up.  He helps the team, but not enough when that money could go elsewhere. He could land with a team that might use him more, but that would be a mistake since he’s made of peanut brittle.  Pierre Thomas is the best back in New Orleans and will continue to get the bulk of the carries and if he can stay relatively healthy, will be the guy to own.  Of course Sean Payton could use Ron Dayne on the goal line.  Joseph Addai really showed something to his detractors this year and it will be hard for Donald Brown to supplant him, but if Brown stays healthy there is no way he doesn’t dip into Addai’s numbers enough to hurt his fantasy value.  Anthony Gonzalez can’t be happy with what developed at wide receiver while he was hurting.  Pierre Garcon really developed and has earned the right to be the #2 receiver.  And with Gonzalez out of the game for so long I don’t see him taking that job back very quickly.  Brees and Manning of course are atop the fantasy heap, but I doubt I’ll own either one once again next season.  Top QB’s are around later in the draft and I’ll take a RB or three please.

The game was good, but not classic.  We might be getting a little too used to games like the Patriots/Giants and Cardinals/Steelers.  Remember when Super Bowls had the suspense of a Ashton Kutcher movie plot line?  Yes, Joe Montana and Troy Aikman hook up in the end!

So this brings us to a close of the 2009-2010 NFL season, which means we are at the beginning of the 2010-2011 season!! Tonight we are hosting our first mock draft to kick off the breaking down and over-thinking of the season to come.  So stay tuned and remember, the NFL season is never over, it just gets slightly less violent.

Us Razzballians thought we would set the world aflame and do what nobody has ever done in the world of football blogging; make Super Bowl predictions!  Yes, I know we are stepping out on a decrepit, old, rotting bridge that could collapse at anytime, but if we make it across, we have crossed over into a world of unrealized opportunity and mystical oneness. Or, just a world full of maybe a little too much Peyton Manning man love.

Chet Gresham (that’s me, Doc):

When you stack the Colts and Saints up next to each other you get one big mass of football player flesh and on the outside it seems to come out fairly even.  Yes, the Saints have an advantage on special teams, the Colts have a slight receiver advantage, the running backs could swing low to the Saints’ side if Bush , the defenses have their own strengths that make them worthwhile, and so on and so forth, and even when you look at the head of each team, the quarterback, you see two very similar players statistically, but one is better than the other.  Often games like this come down to a big turnover (advantage Saints) or a big play (maybe advantage Saints), but in my mind this game comes down to Peyton Manning’s ability to perform under pressure, audible on the fly, and make quick and correct decisions.  I know saying Manning is the key is a simple answer to a complex game, but he’s the one that can hold the most complexity in himself and at the same time act instinctively based on that complexity. It truly is an amazing thing to witness.

The Saints aren’t the machine that the Colts are.  They play loose and force a lot of turnovers which is a great way to win games, but the Colts should be able to exploit a team with that kind of philosophy.  It’s a little like the Matrix, but the machines win.  Just think of Manning as Mr. Anderson or Peyton Manderson and the Saints as that wild orgy in one of the sequels that isn’t as good as the first one.

Indianapolis 40, New Orleans 27

Mark Geoffriau:

I really wish I believed the Saints could win on Sunday, but no matter what angle I take on this game, I have a hard time seeing the Colts losing. For all the excellence of both passing games, I think the critical factor for the Saints may be their ability (or inability) to run the ball against the Colts. If they can run with success, control the clock, and not fall prey to the temptation to trade deep TD throws with the Colts, there’s a chance for victory — but I’d still probably bet on Manning on the last drive. If the Colts continue their playoff defensive success against the run, then I don’t see how the Saints will be able to keep pace with the Indy offense. The Freeney injury definitely hurts the Colts defense, but they always seem to be able to adjust for personnel loss capably.

Indianapolis 37, New Orleans 27

Drew White:

I don’t know if you heard or not, but Dwight Freeney is injured. I can see how you’d miss it given that every network is talking about it 24/7. Overplayed stories are annoying, but this one is pretty significant; the most significant impacts will be subtle yet critically important. With Dwight Freeney out there at 100% you have to chip or double team him. That means there’s one less receiver sent on routes, drastically decreasing your route combination possibilities. A healthy Freeney hinders your ability to utilize the tight end or running backs in passing situations because those are the players who would stay in and help.

Even if Freeney plays he will be nowhere near 100%. The Saints should be able to contain him with one offensive lineman. The Colts defense doesn’t rely on turnovers. Rather, they employ the “bend don’t break” philosophy that the Patriots won multiple Super Bowls with. The Colts don’t do it nearly as well but that is counterbalanced by their better offense.

The Saints should be able to move the ball with relative ease and score points. The Colts are likely game planning them to take away the big play but this is easier said than done. Sean Payton will probably run the ball more than people expect and put together methodical drives in order to chew the clock; as dangerous as his offense is the Colts are even more explosive. I think the Saints will put up 24 points in this contest.

Now let’s look at things from Indy’s perspective. Defensively they have fewer options and will hope for missteps from the Saints in the way of failed 3^rd down conversions and turnovers. There’s no magic formula for stopping the Saints because it’s just not not possible. Dallas’s defense was legit and New Orleans completely picked them apart. The Colts will do their best to “keep everything in front of them,” tackle well, and pick spots to be aggressive.

I refuse to bet against Peyton Manning. A couple years ago the conversation revolved around how Peyton Manning “wasn’t clutch” and might not ever “win the big one.” I entered a contest in the New York Times to discuss this idea. My argument then was basically that this idea was completely ludicrous, that he would likely win multiple Super Bowls, and that at the end of his career he’d be considered the best quarterback in history. I am very anti-bandwagon and Peyton ended up making me look smart. My argument was a finalist but I didn’t win.

Defense and a great rushing attack do not win championships in the modern NFL. You know what wins? Superb quarterback play. It’s nice to have other useful things. No one is going to say that a team would rather not have strengths in other areas, but it’s simply not necessary.

In keeping with my argument, how can I not go with the greatest quarterback in NFL history? Although the Freeney thing hurts them I still think the Colts should still win this game. Peyton’s had two weeks to dissect their defense.

People are getting carried away talking about how “opportunistic” the Saints defense is and how they will blitz Peyton to “put pressure on him.” The Jets already tried that (guess what: they’re a lot better at it than the Saints are). How did that work out for them? Not well. Peyton, the master tactician, will recognize the vast majority of Gregg Williams’ blitz packages and exploit them mercilessly. Drew Brees is a great quarterback and one of my favorite players but he’s not Peyton.

Indianapolis 31, New Orleans 24

Here are my rankings for the Super Bowl peppered with some “remember me hits.”  Let’s get it, as they say, on!

Quarterbacks:

1. Peyton Manning: In these here playoffs the Saints have forced at least one quarterback into retirement and another possibly into hiding/retirement/24/7 news cycle.  They will be coming after Peyton Manning with the force of Zeus’ own thunder! But then he’ll sidestep and throw a touchdown.  We saw the Jets’ #1 defense get to Manning early in the AFC Championship game and then the Manning Machine finally got warmed up and chewed them up and spat them out while throwing for 377 yards and 3 TD’s.  That’s the most passing yards given up by the Jets all year.  And the Saints don’t have as good a pass defense as the Jets. In the Saints’ last 6 meaningful games (not including week 17 when they rested starters) they have given up 303.5 passing yards per game.  Greg Williams wants his players to put some “remember me hits” on Peyton early.  Rex Ryan probably had the same game plan.

2. Drew Brees: He is probably the best all around fantasy quarterback going against the best all around real quarterback.  The Colts are vulnerable against the pass with their young defensive backs and unless Freeney and Mathis can pressure Brees consistently, he will be able to move the ball through the air.  The Saints did try to balance the run with the pass in the championship game. They had 23 rushes to 31 passes even though they only averaged 3 yards a carry.  I believe they’ll try a similar ratio against the Colts, so Brees’ numbers could be dampened just a little.

Running Backs:

1. Joseph Addai: He ran strong against the Jets’ tough run defense totaling 81 yards on 16 carries.  The Colts won’t all of the sudden try to run the ball down the Saints throats, but Addai could see similar to better numbers against a poor rushing defense, and I see him adding a touchdown.  Addai has been a little dinged up and the 2 weeks of rest should help him quite a bit.

2. Pierre Thomas: He says his ribs aren’t bothering him and he did have a decent game against a good Vikings rush defense.  The Colts have had good game plans against elite running backs, but PT won’t be their main focus and could sneak in a couple big runs.

3. Reggie Bush: Bush is the ultimate boom or bust (sounds a little like his girlfriend).  I almost put him above PT because he is always a threat to take the ball all the way.  But in the biggest game in the whole wide world of sports I think Payton trusts Thomas with the ball more.  Bush does elevate his game and could go off, but I’m playing it safe with PT and his 15-20 touches.

4. Donald Brown: He was clearly backing up Addai last week so it looks like he’s passed Mike Hart as he should have.  Coming off his injury I’ve seen a couple very nice runs from him, but for the most part he’s not doing enough to take many looks away from Addai and I doubt things will change much in the Super Bowl.

5. Mike Bell/Lynell Hamilton: Both of these guys have about the same chance of vulturing a touchdown from Pierre Thomas.

Wide Receivers:

1. Reggie Wayne: Garcon and Collie benefited from Wayne getting Revis-ed last week, but Revis didn’t get invited to the Super Bowl.  The Saints did slow Sidney Rice, but he still had 4 receptions for 43 yards and a TD.  The Saints are going to have their hands full with Garcon, Collie and Clark, so giving Wayne extra attention might be tough.

2. Marques Colston: Against the Vikings Drew Brees completed passes to 8 different players and only had a total of 17 completions.  Not one receiver had a great game and that has really been the way it has gone all season.  Colston is the Saints best receiver so he gets the #2 nod.

3. Pierre Garcon: He showed he could be the #1 guy without any downgrade in production.  Reggie Wayne is still the man and unless the Saints spend a lot of resources on shutting him down we should see Garcon’s numbers dip from last week’s game.

4.Devery Henderson: He’s leading the Saints in receiving in the playoffs and has scored as many touchdowns in the playoffs as he did all season with two.  You can’t discount a player who is hot in the playoffs.  Of course he could be shut out, but trying to pick a Saints receiver is tough no matter what you do, might as well go with the hot hand.

5. Robert Meachem: He’s been hurting, but seems to be healthy now and he would probably be my pick to pull another Braylon Edwards on the Colts defense.  The only problem with that is the Saints aren’t a run first team like the Jets, so it will be tougher to beat the Colts deep.

6. Austin Collie: Collie should see the biggest drop off from the Revis game, but you cannot count him out for a touchdown.  Manning will throw to the open guy. So get open!

7. Lance Moore: Just another Saints wide receiver to divvy up the receptions.  What ever happened to a #1 and #2 receiver that got a predetermined number of catches?  That never happens? Hmm, maybe I was watching darts.

Tight Ends:

1. Dallas Clark: This is a bit of a no-brainer based on his competition, but the Saints have been tough against tight ends.  They’ve only given up one TD to a TE and the was the future Hall of Famer Fred Davis. Clark is too good to shut out.

2. Dave Thomas: If I were Sean Payton I would play Thomas over Shockey based on hair alone, but also because Shockey is hurting.  I really wouldn’t want either Saints’ tight end, but the founder of Wendys isn’t hurting.

3. Jeremy Shockey: He says he will risk an even worse injury than he already has to play in the Super Bowl.  Well, that’s very William Wallace of you Jeremy, but I think they’ll go with the healthier guy.

Kickers:

1. Garrett Hartley: The Colts can interpretive dance the cliche of “bend and don’t break” and it is a beautiful display that will go off-broadway after the Super Bowl.  Hartley will have some chances to kick.

2. Matt Stover: I see the Colts converting their drives into touchdowns more often than the Saints.

Defense/Special Teams:

1. New Orleans Saints: I like the Colts to win this game, but with Roby and Bush returning kicks and punts and the Saints loving the turnover they have a little more upside.

2. Indianapolis Colts: This should be a high scoring game.  The Colts might be the safer defense since I see them having more points than that other team.

So instead of hearing about Favre every day until the Super Bowl we get to see grainy color film of the Manning boys playing catch in the backyard and hear tales of Drew Brees in his motor boat picking people off roofs.  I’m mainly happy that I don’t have to hear Rex Ryan blathering on about how his team should be favored.  Maybe he was saying flavored instead of favored?  Is that why he has put on an extra 150 pounds?  Are there any back up Jets’ kickers missing?

I’ll save you all the suspense; I’m going with The Mannings in this bout of white bread vs. Creole.  Besides the fact that I think Peyton is the ultimate X factor, I refuse to root for any team with Jeremy Shockey on it to win the Super Bowl. As commenter Danimal35 said, no team that lost to the Buccaneers in the regular season has ever won the Super Bowl.  I think that record will continue in Miami in two weeks.  Two weeks!? Ugh.

Peyton Manning: I would like to thank Manning for not making me look too stupid in front of my throngs of readers.  Hi mom! My prediction that passing is the new fad to take over the NFL was correct!  And also thanks to Bradbury Robinson and his “projectile pass,” which sounds more like vomit than football, but whatevs.  Even though the AFC Championship wasn’t a last second affair like the NFC game, it was a better all around game without the fumbleruski play being implemented on each drive.  Peyton once again showed why he is the best QB in the game by steering away from Revis Island and docking most his passes on Collie Reef and in Garcon Bay.  Next week he gets the turnover happy, but not very cover happy pass defense.

Joseph Addai: He came out of the game again this week, but managed to get back in there and out rush the rushing elite Jets.  With 2 weeks rest he will be ready to go in the Super Bowl against the poor Saints’ rush defense.

Pierre Garcon: He had 11 receptions, 151 yards and a touchdown and I could chalk it all up to Revis taking out Wayne, but Garcon didn’t look like he was just a beneficiary of a lot of targets and poor defensive backs; he made some amazing catches.  I like Anthony Gonzalez, but he may have just been Wally Pipped.

Austin Collie: Collie also came up big, but didn’t look quite as athletic after the catch as Garcon.  He ended up with a great 123 yards and a touchdown grab, but should see his role decreased a little as long as Darrelle Revis doesn’t make the trip to Miami.

Reggie Bush: He caught a pass for a touchdown, but otherwise he once again showed why he is pretty much worthless in the sense of things that are worth something, which he isn’t.  He muffed a punt, or bushed it, if you will. And by muffed or bushed, I mean that he bailed out so he wouldn’t get hit.

Pierre Thomas: He totaled 99 yards and a rushing touchdown and looks like he’ll continue to be the go to guy in the Super Bowl after Reggie Bush had no luck running the ball.  He was the second Pierre to have a good game on Championship Sunday.  What happened to all the Merican football players?!!

Drew Brees: He has 6 touchdowns and no interceptions in the playoffs so far.  It was difficult to tell if he was playing or not since all I can remember is Brett limping around, but looking back at the stats it looks like he was.  He didn’t out grit Ol’ Favre, but he was steady.  He gets a Colts pass defense that wasn’t really tested by Flacco and Sanchez actually looked good against them.  Look for around 1,000 total yards passing in Miami.

Devery Henderson: The DH has come up big in the playoffs so far.  Picking what receivers will get the yards and touchdowns for the Saints is a crapola shoot at best, but if you like riding the hot hand, and who doesn’t?, then get DH in your lineup.  I think the DH is allowed to play in a neutral stadium.

Brett Favre: He really did get beat like a 40 year old pinata, but made some amazing throws in the process.  His last throw was a pick, but I still can’t understand why Childress was running the ball and settling for a 51 yard field goal?  Then, after having too many men in the huddle, the Vikings were pretty much out of field goal range and Favre had to make a play, so he forced it like is his want to do, and got pickaruskied.  It wasn’t like they were on the five yard line and needed a chip shot to win it.  Whatever happens with Favre he proved that he can still play at an elite level, which just doesn’t happen with 40 year oldies.

Adrian Peterson: He had some great runs and three touchdowns and some really bad ball control, no not the Paris Hilton kind (sorry mom), but the fumbling kind.  He needs to figure some shizz out and quick.  He hasn’t lost his speed or moves or power, but he doesn’t look like he knows what the eighch he’s doing out there.  He just plows ahead with reckless abandon and coughs up the ball (see Paris Hilton) more than he should.  He had an amazing game statistically and there is no reason to think he will slow down fantasy wise.  So why should we care?!

Sidney Rice: He caught a touchdown, but saw a lot of double coverage, so Favre looked elsewhere.  Rice has the skills to be an elite #1 receiver in this league, but TJax isn’t the guy to help him remain an elitist.

Bernard Berrian: 102 yards receiving was his highest number for the season.  His age, injury proneness, competition, and possible loss of Favre make him free agency fodder in a lot of leagues next season.

Mark Sanchez: I was impressed by the Bearded-Sanchez.  When he needed to make throws he made them.  Ryan should have actually turned him loose in the early downs more often instead of plodding ahead with the ineffective running game, but what do I know? (don’t answer that).  Sanchez will continue to improve, but his fantasy value should still have a low ceiling (think Gandalf in Bag End) next year.  If they can keep Greene, Jones and Washington they should continue to run it down opponents’ throats.

Shonn Greene: He injured his ribs and only ended up with 10 carries for 48 yards, but he had already shown his ability in the games before this.  He is going to be super-hyped, especially if Thomas Jones is let go due to salary and oldness.  If that happens, I’ll probably be conducting the super-hype train.

Braylon Edwards: He ended up with 100 yards and a long touchdown which he amazingly caught.  Edwards must be a head case or maybe he just can’t catch, but he has the ability to get open and make amazing catches when the ball doesn’t hit him directly in the hands. I’ll always be wary of drafting him.

Jerricho Cotchery: Sanchez hooked up with Cotchery 5 times for 102 yards.  The Cotch Rocket is a steady receiver and should continue to be as Sanchez blossoms.  Looking back at what I just wrote I could be writing a review of a new ABC Family show. If they make a pregnancy pact I am going to freak out!

It’s that time of the year where we look back on our stupid moves and pretend to learn from them.  Did you just waste away your life hoping Matt Forte would stop sucking? No! You have become a better person for it! Or, you are still curled up on your bathroom floor in the fetal position, either or. Let’s take a gander at some of the more sucky of the suckiest suckers in the NFL and laugh at them instead of ourselves!

I used Fantasy Football Calculator for 2009 ADP and ESPN fantasy points for how each player finished.

Matt Forte: 4th RB off the board, finished 17th — Why was Matt Forte such a high draft pick? Well, he scored 12 touchdowns, caught 63 passes and totaled 1700 yards in his first season for a team led by Kyle Orton.  If he comes close to that he’s a top fantasy back and there wasn’t much reason to think he couldn’t improve with a better QB at the helm.  But of course it didn’t work out the way we thought.  Will Forte bounce back from this season?  It’s hard not to see him getting into the end zone more than 4 times, but I’m hesitant to call for a huge year.  He says he was battling a MCL sprain all season and we know how poor the O-line play was, but he just doesn’t have the elite speed and open field ability to make his own yards.  As long as he continues to be the every down back he will be worth starting, but I’m already seeing him going very early in mock drafts and unless he falls he won’t be on my team.

Michael Turner: 3rd RB, finished 22nd — Turner is an interesting case.  A lot of perts have been patting themselves on the back for predicting Turner to have a down year, and of course they were correct, but a high ankle sprain doesn’t automatically come from overuse from the previous year.  It didn’t help, but there’s no reason to think he can’t heal completely from that injury and return to ‘08 numbers. This season he averaged 4.9 yards per carry and the 8th most fantasy points per game.  He also scored 10 touchdowns and is a certified TD machine. I am of course a little worried about his health, and there are a ton of good backs to choose from, but if he slides in ADP he will have value.

LaDainian Tomlinson: 6th RB, finished 20th — I was worried about LT going into the season, but I should have been more worried.  He was still 29 years old coming off a season with turf toe that I felt could heal up, but it wasn’t just the toe that was keeping him down.  His 12 touchdowns barely kept him in the top 20, which shows you just how bad his rushing and receiving stats must have been.  If he’s even in the league next season, there is absolutely no reason to draft him in the top 30 running backs.

Calvin Johnson: 4th WR, finished 23rd — In ‘08 he was able to play well on a horrible team with horrible QB’s.  We all were living in an ‘08 bubble of Megatron goodness and that bubble burst.  I haven’t seen too many mock drafts yet, but I don’t think he’s going to fall too far in drafts.  He was injured, has elite ability, and will have a lot of time to get in synch with Matthew Stafford in preseason.  I don’t see any reason to be scared away from him next season and if he falls just a little in drafts he could have value.

Steve Slaton: 9th RB, finished 35th — In many ways Slaton had a better ‘08 season than Forte.  He had much better yards per carry, his running style kept him from getting hit as much, and he was on a better offensive team.  But then the S.S. Slaton took a fateful trip into the Kubiak Triangle.  There is now talk that the Texans will draft a running back and you can’t discount Arian Foster’s play.  It’s a situation to stay away from.

Brandon Jacobs: 11th RB, finished 29th — Mr. Jacobs is an enigma wrapped in a monsterous package.  Ahmad Bradshaw clearly outplayed him this year and that was with two broken feet!  Jacobs broke down toward the end of the season and it’s impossible to trust his health or his playing time coming into next season.

Greg Jennings: 6th WR, finished 20th — Jennings came into the season with a lot of hype, including hype of the Razzball variety.  If you were to tell me at the beginning of the season that Aaron Rodgers would be the #1 fantasy quarterback and Greg Jennings wasn’t going to get hurt and finish as the 20th best receiver I would have punched you in the throat.

Brian Westbrook: 12th RB, finished 62nd — He was risky coming into the season so this outcome wasn’t too hard to foresee.  Him and the guy that follows are the reason you draft young and on the rise instead of . . .

Clinton Portis: 13th RB, finished 56th — old and on the skids.

Jason Witten: 1st TE, finished 8th — This year 10 tight ends finished with 100 points or more which is a record and there is no reason to think that number is going to start falling anytime soon.  Jason Witten didn’t have a horrible year, but he was nowhere close to being worth the 41st overall pick.  The 40th overall pick was Ray Rice.  Unless you are in a 2 TE league, and why would you be?, there is absolutely no reason to reach for one.  I’m not saying punt, just be patient.

Reggie Bush: 23rd RB, finished 40th — This is just to remind you that even though Reggie Bush can put up insane single game numbers, he won’t put up insane full season numbers.

Eddie Royal: 21st WR, finished 82nd — This is one of the most baffling drop-offs of the year.  He never seemed to get a chance and it’s hard to tell if that was due to his inability, Orton’s inability, or McDaniels’ stupidity.  McDaniels mentioned after the season was over that he regretted Royal not getting more work and who knows where Brandon Marshall will end up.  Royal is already hitting sleeper lists, and unless he gets hyped too much he’s probably worth a flier next season.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 1st D, finished 16th — The Steelers’ defense averaged as the 86th overall pick in last year’s draft.  This is the reason you do not draft a defense early.  Let’s take a look at some players that went after the Steelers; Percy Harvin, Ahmad Bradshaw, Derrick Mason, Tim Hightower, Brett Favre, Rashard Mendenhall, Miles Austin, etc… Yes, you might have drafted Lavernues Coles instead, but what are the chances that you will pick a defense that is startable every week?  None whatsoever!  The #1 defense in fantasy this year was the 49ers who weren’t even drafted this season and the #2 defense, the New York Jets, were drafted 127th overall.  Draft a defense with upside late in the draft, then stream the hot D (does that sound dirty?).