Fantasy Football Advice

Running back is the most volatile position and in dynasty leagues that can be scary.  As soon as a back reaches 30 they are sent off in a space ship to Vorgon 7, so you must draft some youngsters and then some youngster back-ups and then some 15 year old prodigy types.  A trade or injury can make an ok running back into a top ten running back in short order and the other into a short order cook.

Tier 1

1. Chris Johnson 25 — You know what he can do.

2. Adrian Peterson 25 — Purple Jesus can still raise the dead (he just has trouble holding onto the ball).

3. Maurice Jones Drew 25 — He’s got a nose for the goal line.

4. Ray Rice 23 — I’m not too worried about McGahee and these are Dynasty rankings we are talking bout.

Tier 2

5. Jamaal Charles 23 — Probably deserves Tier 1 status, but needs to perform for a whole year.

6. Rashard Mendenhall 23 — Young and the #1 on a good team.

7. Shonn Greene 25 — With Jones gone he could rush Rex Ryan’s weight in a single game.

8. Frank Gore 27 — Steady and versatile, but aging and injury prone.

9. Beanie Wells 22 — Hightower will be eating his dust.

10. Steven Jackson 27 — Will put up good numbers, but his team is an albatross around his neck.

Tier 3

11. Jonathan Stewart 23 — His age and ability trump his RBBC lot in life.

12. Michael Turner 28 — He can put up TD’s with the best of them.

13. Knowshon Moreno 23 — Didn’t overwhelm in his rookie season, but his situation is ripe for success.

14. DeAngelo Williams 27 –  He’s too good to knock down far even though he’s older than his RBBC pal.

Tier 4

15. Ryan Grant 27 — On a great offense.  Steady production.

16. Donald Brown 23 — RBBC for now, but youth always wins out.

17. Cedric Benson 27 — Bengals have become run first.

18. Pierre Thomas 25 — Just hope Payton gives him some goal line work.

19. Matt Forte 24 — Chester Taylor hurts him, but thankfully Taylor will be 31 this season.

20. Felix Jones 23 — Worried about his health, but see him getting the most numbers in cow town.

Tier 5

21. LeSean McCoy 22 — He’ll move up the ranks if the Eagles don’t grab a veteran.

22. Joseph Addai 27 — Has some productive committee years left.

23. Ahmad Bradshaw 24 — Jacobs and he were both injured, but he outplayed him.

24. Ronnie Brown 28 — He could slip further depending on how his injury looks, but he is an elite talent.

25. Justin Forsett 24 — Showed he was the best RB on the Seahawks last season.  If they don’t grab anyone else, he’ll be golden.

Tier 6

26. Brandon Jacobs 28 — I’m not a fan, but if he’s healthy he can get in the endzone.

27. Marshawn Lynch 24 — His age and past production make him hard to pass on.

28. Jerome Harrison 27 — I wanted to put him higher, but he’ll probably be in a committee.

29. Fred Jackson 29 — There’s a good chance he’ll get the bulk of the carries this season, but he is old (which makes me ancient).

Tier 7

30. Reggie Bush 25 — Reggie Bush type.

31. Darren Sproles 27 — Reggie Bush type, but older.

32. Darren McFadden 23 — Lots of talent, but is on a bad team and might be a Reggie Bush type.

33. Kevin Smith 23 — His injuries and inability to run well are worrisome, but he has time for redemption.

34. Marion Barber 27 — Most Barbarians have short life spans.

Tier 8

35. Michael Bush 26 — Could end up being the starter on a bad team.

36. Thomas Jones 32 — Doesn’t get hurt so should have a year or two left.  Depends on the team he winds up on.

37. Laurence Maroney 25 — Had a great stretch last season.  Still young.

38. Tashard Choice 25 — Barber is declining.  Jones is injury prone.

39. Chester Taylor 31 — Role is undefined now in Chicago, but he could do some things in a Martz offense.

40. Steve Slaton 24 — Had a great rookie season.  Has skills.  Benched. Is hurt. Flier.

Tier 9

41. Leon Washington 28 — Looks like he’ll be ready to go all season in a run first offense.

42. Tim Hightower 24 — Still young, but will be a Beanie back-up.

43. LenDale White 25 — A bit risky, but anywhere other than behind CJ will help him.

44. Willis McGahee 28 — Staying in Baltimore will hurt his value.

45. Ricky Williams 33 — Should get you one more productive year.

46. Carnell Williams 28 — Lasted all last season.  Probably won’t this season.

47. Arian Foster 24 — He showed some awesomeness, but the Texans are looking at RB’s in the draft.

Tier 10

48. James Davis 24 — Young and will compete with Jerome Harrison for the starting job.

49. Bernard Scott 26 — If Benson goes down he would easily take up the slack.

50. Lex Hilliard 26 — Ricky is old. Ronnie is oldish/injuryish.

51. Jerious Norwood 27 — Turner has had a lot of carries.  Norwood should be healthy.

52. Larry Johnson 30 — I don’t like him, but he could start for the Native Americans.

53. LaDainian Tomlinson 31 — Should hook up with a new team.  A lot depends on that team.

54. Glen Coffee 23 — Gore is injury prone.

55. Rashad Jennings 25 — Just has MJD blocking him.

56. Derrick Ward 30 — Will be in the mix, but the recipe is bland.

57. Maurice Morris 30 — Might, might, be a starter if the Lions are dumb.

58. Correl Buckhalter 31 — Should still be the #2 in the mountains, but old.

Tier 11

59. Tyrell Sutton 23 — A good change of pace back that could flourish with an opportunity.

60. Mike Goodson 23 — See above.

61. Mike Bell 27 — Should find a team and his value will depend on that team

62. Chris Jennings 24 — Slim chance to get into the mix after Harrison and Davis.

63. Jason Snelling 26 — Norwood was hurt much of last season so Snelly got the work.

64. Larod Stephens-Howling 23 — Has the ability to be a Reggie Bush type.

65. Javon Ringer 23 — Would probably pick up the reps if CJ goes down as long as White is gone.

66. Brian Westbrook 31 — If he hooks up with the right team and looks healthy I could see moving him up a little, but I’m not taking him.

updated 3/13/10

There is no off season here at Razzball (except for that 48 hour bender right after the Super Bowl). We’ve already got ourselves a slow mock draft happening to kick off the beginning of the 2010-2011 season.  Yes, there will be a lot of changes as the so-called off season moves players around and brings in new, younger ones, but doing mocks is a great way to see how others value players and helps solidify where you value players.  Here are my co-conspirator mockaletes.

1. Matt Schauf – RapidDraft.com

2. Melissa Jacobs - TheFootballGirl.com

3. Melissa Greenhawt – GoGameFace.com

4. Chet Gresham – This Guy

5. Jim Day - FFWhiz.com

6. Charlie Tourtillotte — Tourinct

7. Mike Clay – FantasyDC.com

8. Steve Adler - FantasyDaddy.com

9. Paul M. Bourdett – BaseHeads.com

10. Drew Silva – Rotoworld.com

11. Bryan Fontaine – RookieBlitz.com

12. Knox Bardeen – Fanhouse.com

We’re still mocking each other so I’ll keep you updated on our progress.  My picks are in bold.  Here are the first three rounds for your amusement:

Round One

1. Maurice Jones Drew

2. Chris Johnson

3. Adrian Peterson

4. Ray Rice

5. Michael Turner

6. Andre Johnson

7. Frank Gore

8. Steven Jackson

9. Jamaal Charles

10. Matt Forte

11. Aaron Rodgers

12. Ryan Grant

– The first round had most of the usual suspects in it, but MJD at #1 was a little surprising. He’s in my 1st tier and I can see him being a #1 pick, but I’m a little worried about Garrard getting him to the goal line as much as he needs. Matt defends his pick here.

– I felt good about getting Ray Rice 4th.  If I had to choose a draft position it would be one of the top 4 or at the turn at 11/12.  I don’t think you can go wrong with any of the top 4 picks and if you get 4th you don’t have to decide!

– Drew went with Forte at #10 which is within the realm of where his ADP will be, but I will probably pass on him unless it’s a ppr league.  Martz likes to use his running backs in the passing game, a lot.

– Aaron Rodgers will be in the running for the #1 quarterback off the board, but after last year’s ten 4,ooo yard passers, I’ll be waiting on a quarterback.

– Since I’m pro Chris Johnson, getting him at #2 is good value, but no picks really stood out to me as steals.  I have Jamaal Charles ranked higher than he went, but that second tier is pretty fluid with Gore, A.J., SJax and Charles.

Round Two

13. Drew Brees

14. Larry Fitzgerald

15. Peyton Manning

16. Rashard Mendenhall

17. Calvin Johnson

18. Reggie Wayne

19. Pierre Thomas

20. DeAngelo Williams

21. Chris Wells

22. Philip Rivers

23. Tom Brady

24. Miles Austin

– The second round saw a big run on quarterbacks.  Once again I just can’t grab a QB with the first 2 picks.  It’s against my code of fake football ethics.  Running backs or wide receivers for me please.  My options at RB were dwindling fast, but I had a difficult time choosing between Beanie, Moreno and Benson.  But for my money, Beanie has the highest upside of the 3.  Whisenhunt won’t put as much of the game in Leinart’s hands, especially with a back as talented as Wells showing his worth toward the end of last season.

– I am a little worried about DeAngelo Williams after Jon Stewart went crazy after D. Willy went down toward the end of the season.  I could even see Stewart out playing him this year, but any way you look at it he isn’t guaranteed the bulk of the carries.

– The same could be true for Pierre Thomas, but I am a little more concerned about him staying healthy than being the primary back.

– I think one of the best picks of round 2 was by Matt who grabbed Miles Austin with the last pick.  I thought about snagging him, but just liked Wells too much.  Austin could easily be a top 3 wide receiver with a full season as the #1 WR in Dallas. Witten will be his only real rival for looks unless Jones gets an itchy finger and tries for a Boldin/Marshall trade.

Round Three

25. Randy Moss

26. Brandon Marshall

27. Ronnie Brown

28. Vincent Jackson

29. Greg Jennings

30. Roddy White

31. Matt Schaub

32. Tony Romo

33. DeSean Jackson

34. Steve Slaton

35. Knowshon Moreno

36. Marion Barber

– It’s interesting to see how far Randy Moss fell.  Even in a not great season he was a fantasy stud with his ability to get into the endzone, but he is also starting to show his age whileWelker could be gone for a big chunk of time which will get Moss a lot of attention if Edelman doesn’t go nuts.  I like Moss here, but I’m still trying to decide if I like him earlier as well.

– I felt good about Vincent Jackson in the third.  The Chargers will once again have to rely on the passing game and VJax should continue to improve.

– Brandon Marshall’s value is still up in the air since we aren’t sure where he’ll end up, but if he can have a big year with Orton, he has a shot of having a big year anywhere.

– I think both Slaton and Barber went too early as they don’t have the starting job wrapped up for next season.  I won’t own a Texan’s running back this season unless they trade for Purple Jesus or his like.  I also won’t own a Cowboy running back unless Felix Jones really slips.  Jones could get the most touches next season, but his injury history is worrisome.  I’ll pass.

– My favorite pick of round 3 is probably Knowshon Moreno.  The Broncos are a bit of a question mark with Josh McDaniels taking multiple power trips, but Moreno is their back and Buckhalter, though awesome last year, isn’t getting any younger and should continue to pop up on the injury report.  And Moreno will have a full off season and preseason compared to his holdout last year.

You are probably like me when it comes to fantasy football. I use logic to set my lineups during the week and act totally rational. Then Sunday comes and I’m thrown in to a tailspin of delusional schizophrenia (no offense to our schizophrenic readers) and I pre-emptively hate all my starters because I think they’re all going to tank out on me.

Next are the phone calls to a trusted advisor. You agree with everything s/he says as they logically tell you who to start. You annoy them by playing Devil’s Advocate and undermining all their suggestions. Tired of your antics they hang up the phone and you are left to quadruple and quintuple guess yourself. Then right before game time you become completely delusional and make last second replacements before your lineup locks.

We all go through this same ritual. And as the playoffs begin and finality sets in the pressure only increases and makes the process of choosing starters more torturous. One suggestion I make is that you check out the website on Sunday because we update the latest injury info and team rumors. We are also on the site answering start/sit questions until game time (and throughout for the later games). Maybe we can make your Sunday just a little more sane, logical, and successful!

Thursday 8:20 PM

Indianapolis (14th) @ Jacksonville (4th)

So far so good on the recently clinched Colts.  I really wish they’d unclinch so they’d just play all out with even their near-death players, but sadly we have to worry about who will play.  Donald Brown didn’t practice on Tuesday and I doubt they’ll push him so Addai will be the main guy again.  Mike Hart got 10 carries last week and could be in line for even more this week and even more the next.  The Jags have a tough run defense, but Addai seems to be able to get into the endzone.

Colts: Addai 0, Hart -3

The Colts did shut down Moreno last week and looked very good while doing so.  Of course that doesn’t mean you sit MJD.  He has had a little trouble going off Chris Johnson style lately, but he’s still getting into the endzone which isn’t a bad thing.

Jaguars: Jones-Drew +1

Saturday 8:20

Dallas (8^th) @ New Orleans (22^nd)

If you drafted Marion Barber in fantasy this season, odds are you’re not in the playoffs right now. I have a theory that there’s an NFC East conspiracy against fantasy football. Think about it for a second- Barber, Jacobs, Westbrook, Portis; all studs, all have been enormous busts this year. Anyway, back to this matchup. You are compelled to play Barber because if the Cowboys get near the goal line he’s getting the rock. They are one of the more pass happy teams near the end zone but Barber will get any available opportunities.

Cowboys: Barber 0, Jones 0, Choice 0

Speaking of highly touted running backs in the preseason that have been extremely inconsistent… Pierre Thomas is just like Barber- you can’t get away from having to start him. In PPR leagues Reggie Bush is a stud. He gets his every week in the passing game. I wouldn’t play Mike Bell if I owned him.

Saints: Thomas -2, Bush 0, Bell -2

Sunday 1 PM

Cleveland (18^th) @ Kansas City (32^nd)

Next stop on the running back carousel, Cleveland! So Jamal Lewis goes down and it looks like Jennings might be the guy but Harrison gets first dibs. He rips it up so Mangini decides to get Jennings involved more (someone needs to explain this logic to me) and we think he could be taking over. Then he makes a statement saying Josh Cribbs might become featured in a traditional running back role. Unless the situation in Cleveland becomes more transparent all three of these become must sits.

Browns: Harrison +1, Jennings +1, Cribbs +2

It’s great seeing Jamaal Charles in charge. We thought he’d be a great guy to own but he’s such a stud. Don’t outsmart yourself and justify sitting him in some irrational train of thought.

Chiefs: Charles +3

Houston (20^th) @ St. Louis (31^st)

Time for the Gary Kubiak running back shuffling experience. Foster has been named as the starter. If you were smart/lucky enough to grab him it’s going to be tough to pass on this matchup.

Texans: Foster +5, Moats +3, Brown -1

Ho hum. You can probably scratch Jackson in for 100 total yards and a touchdown. Well, maybe not a touchdown but you should be able to count on the yardage.

Rams: Jackson +1, Darby 0

Atlanta (17^th) @ NY Jets (9^th)

Turner should be able to play on Sunday but I wouldn’t get too excited about it. You have a player coming off injury going up against a stout defense. Yeah… I’ll pass. A lot of people will get seduced by the name and play him out of spite. He could be somewhat productive but I just don’t think it’s worth the risk. Snelling and Norwood are both fairly worthless if Turner plays.

Falcons: Turner -1, Snelling -3, Norwood -3

Thomas Jones should be his usual self. Shonn Greene was supposed to be the clear cut second fiddle but Danny Woodhead is cutting in to his touches. This situation is completely random and Shonn Greene nwo belongs on the “don’t start no matter how good the matchup is” list.

Jets: Jones +2, Greene, Woodhead 0

Miami (21^st) @ Tennessee (5^th)

Apparently the Dolphins would rather put the ball in Chad Henne’s hands rather than give Lex Hilliard significant touches. He is now officially dead to me. Man crushes dissolve into total anonymity in the NFL. Ricky Williams is a clear must start.

Dolphins: Williams -1

The Titans are easy to cover every week: Chris Johnson is the best player in Fantasy football and LenDale White doesn’t deserve the energy it just took me to type his name.

Titans: Johnson +1

San Francisco (12^th) @ Philadelphia (10^th)

As an Eagles fan I would love to pretend that their defense isn’t suspect but it is, particularly against the run. Their MO is to shut teams down or give up yards and points in bunches. Frank Gore continues to be productive and he has the potential to carry your Fantasy team in this all important playoff game.

49’ers: Gore 0

LeSean McCoy has managed to do less with more opportunity than anyone in recent memory. He is this year’s Chris Perry (those who owned this Bengals bust in 2008 know what I’m talking about). OK maybe he hasn’t been that bad but when Leonard Weaver steps in and delivers on a regular basis it’s not a compliment to your ability. Westbrook is supposed to return for this game but even if he does playing him is way too risky. Leonard Weaver isn’t really startable unless Westbrook’s out and you’re in a real deep league but he deserves to be mentioned.

Eagles: McCoy -1, Westbrook -2, Weaver 0

New England (15^th) @ Buffalo (30^th)

It’s astounding the number of trickster coaches there are in the NFL but Belichick deserves credit for making it vogue to be vague and mysterious. Two weeks ago he started taking touches from Maroney and giving them to Sammy Morris coming off the injury. So this past Sunday many of us avoided Maroney in case the trend continued. That didn’t happen and instead Maroney became the feature back. What’s nice this week is you’ve got a cupcake of a matchup so even if he gets less touches than you anticipate it’s a great start. I own him in multiple leagues where I have a playoff game and I’m starting him; so if you play him you won’t be the only one drinking the Kool-Aid. I can see playing Morris in deeper leagues but without getting the goal line work I’d look toward an option with higher upside.

Patriots: Maroney +4, Morris +2

Jackson received 23 carries against the Chiefs while Lynch had 14 and the majority of the short distance/goal line work. Jackson is a solid RB #2 or Flex #1 play this week. I would be more cautious with Lynch but can envision him playing in 12 team with two flex spots.

Bills: Jackson 0, Lynch -1

Arizona (23^rd) @ Detroit (25^th)

The Cardinals really made a mess in the 49’ers game on Monday Night Football. Hightower fumbled early (his bugaboo is ball security) and Whisenhunt started giving Wells even more touches than usual. But, as seemingly the entire Cardinals team did, Wells fumbled later on in the game. I don’t anticipate their roles changing for this week or in the future. Both of them are great starts against the Detroit this weekend. As an aside I traded Tim Hightower for T.J. Houshmandzadeh earlier in the year and thought I was so clever. Now I realize what an idiot I was.

Cardinals: Wells +4, Hightower +1

By now everyone knows that Kevin Smith’s having season ending knee surgery. If you have Maurice Morris in PPR I would start him if there’s room. I like him for double digits plus upside on Sunday.

Lions: Morris +2

Chicago (27^th) @ Baltimore (16^th)

I have been ripping on Lovie for some time about refusing to split up Forte’s touches and give Bell a chance to prove his mettle. What are the chances he smartens up? Not very good. Unfortunately you sort of have to start Forte but I wouldn’t feel great about relying on him to help you bring home the trophy.

Bears: Forte 0, Bell -1

Ray Rice should be an absolute monster this week against the lowly Bears. In fact I’m optimistic on both him and McGahee (I would start him in deeper leagues, non PPR especially). I have nothing too insightful on this situation, it is what it is.

Ravens: Rice +3, McGahee +2

Sunday 4 PM

Oakland (26^th) @ Denver (24^th)

JaMarcus Russell is taking over so the Raiders should once again be relegated to the basement of the NFL in production. Darren McFadden would be a really nice player to snag as a potential keeper for next season but I wouldn’t put him in your lineup this week under any circumstance. Justin Fargas isn’t that useful either.

Raiders: Fargas +1, McFadden 0

Correll Buckhalter is injured once again and it’s not clear whether or not he’ll play this week. Knowshon Moreno would be an even better start in that case but I love him in this contest regardless. 20 points from him wouldn’t surprise me.

Broncos: Moreno +4, Buckhalter -2 (pay attention to injury reports)

Cincinnati (6^th) @ San Diego (11^th)

I told all ya’ll to start Benson last week and I walked the walk myself, keeping him in my lineup last week. I’m glad I did. One of the most important lessons I’ve learned this year is to play your studs. The Bengals are perhaps the best run blocking team in the NFL. Put Benson in your lineup this week. Leave Larry Johnson out.

Bengals: Benson 0, Johnson -1

Don’t even think about playing Sproles this week. LaDanian Tomlinson presents a much tougher dilemma. The matchup is horrible but he’s too productive (as is his offense) to consider sitting him. You have to be pleased with what you’ve gotten out of LT considering what the outlook was earlier in the season.

Chargers: Tomlinson -2, Sproles -5

Tampa Bay (29^th) @ Seattle (13^th)

There was a grand total of 43 rushing yards for Williams and Ward to split between them on Sunday against the Jets. Now I realize that the Seahawks defense is nowhere near as good as New York’s but I wouldn’t even think about playing either of these players. If you’re absolutely stuck play Cadillac Williams but if your team’s that weak odds are you aren’t in the playoffs to begin with.

Buccaneers: Williams -2, Ward -3

Julius Jones was inept again this weekend. Mora split touches almost equally between him and Forsett. This is a great matchup but I’d be hesitant to start either player. If there’s an announcement at some point that Forsett will become the feature back I’d enthusiastically play him. In deep PPR leagues he could sneak in as a flex play without a change in the team depth chart.

Seahawks: Jones 0, Forsett +2

Green Bay (1^st) @ Pittsburgh (7^th)

It’s hard not to play Ryan Grant in this game. The Steelers have been fairly solid against the run despite their defensive decline but you have to play your studs.

Packers: Grant -2

The Steelers are basically out of the playoffs but they will finish strong and give it a shot. Rashard Mendenhall hasn’t been part of the problem. In fact the Steeler’s struggles originate from an over reliance on throwing the football and getting away from their traditional “smash mouth” mentality. If they decide to step up the rushing attack Mendenhall could be big the next two weeks.

Steelers: Mendenhall -3

Sunday 8:20 PM

Minnesota (2^nd) @ Carolina (28^th)

This game has huge potential for Adrian Peterson. Chester Taylor might always gets in the mix but hopefully you’re not pinning your flex start hopes on him at this point.

Vikings: Peterson +4, Taylor +3

DeAngelo Williams is going to have a tough time finding room to run against the Vikings. In addition Delhomme will be out again (although some would argue that helps the passing game) and the Vikings will probably stack up against the run. Stewart has been battling injuries and might be out for this game. Sit him regardless. You have to play Williams, he’s just too much of a stud.

Panthers: Williams -3, Stewart -5

Monday 8:30 PM

NY Giants (3rd) @ Washington (19th)

Ahmad Bradshaw had 18 targets to Jacobs 17.  Jacobs is still getting more carries and Bradshaw got more passing looks because of the shootout-y nature of the Eagles game.  Jacobs is still the guy you need to start, but as usual you aren’t going to feel great about it. Bradshaw is a flex play at best.

Giants: Jacobs 0, Bradshaw -2

Quinton Ganther awarded those who picked him up last week and the Redskins have looked better than earlier in the season.  Maybe it was a good idea to deZornify the offense! Ganther gets a much harder matchup this week, but he will still get goal line carries.

Redskins: Ganther 0

Sunday 1 PM

New Orleans (24^th) @ Atlanta (18^th)

Judging from his past performances Pierre Thomas is either going to have a monster game or score about 3 points. Unfortunately you have to start him. Reggie Bush will be back in action and is a must start in PPR. Mike Bell continues to be the goal line back and “closer” so put him in your lineup in deeper leagues. All three of these players get an upgrade against the battered and ineffective Falcons defense.

Saints: Thomas +2, Bush +2, Bell +2

Neither of these backs are doing enough right now to be in your lineup. Jerious Norwood was a huge disappointment for Fantasy owners last Sunday. With Ryan likely out again the Falcons will have to lean on their running game and the Saints haven’t been that stout to begin with. I am giving both of these players an upgrade for the matchup but I would look for better options unless you’re really stuck.

Falcons: Norwood +1, Snelling +1

NY Jets (8^th) @Tampa Bay (29^th)

This matchup should be a feast for the Jets ground game, especially with Mark Sanchez out. Look for Thomas Jones to have a monster outing. Shonn Greene is a definite start unless you don’t have room for him in your lineup.

Jets: Jones +5, Greene +5

Cadillac Williams could be a starter for you in non PPR but I’d look for better options. Derrick Ward is simply overpaid and a disappointment of epic proportions to Fantasy owners.

Buccaneers: Williams -2, Ward -4

Miami (21^st) @ Jacksonville (14^th)

Ricky Williams was surprisingly unproductive last week. Lex Hilliard still hasn’t emerged in to the type of Fantasy player we expected thus far. Ricky is a must start but here’s some whacky numbers for you (courtesy of Doc): The Jaguars haven’t given up more than 77 rushing yards to ANY running back this season other than Chris Johnson; he has gone for 83 and 228 yards against them, respectively. Maybe Ricky can buck this trend but it’s definitely grounds for being nervous.

Dolphins: Williams -1, Hilliard -2

The Dolphins seem like a team that’s really good against the run but they aren’t. At the end of the day it doesn’t really matter anyway because you’re playing MJD regardless.

Jaguars: Jones-Drew +2

Cincinnati (2^nd) @Minnesota (1^st)

So this Sunday we’ll have the leagues two best rush defenses AND the leagues two worst rush defenses over the past six weeks going head to head. Weird. Cedric Benson got his usual heavy workload last Sunday after coming back from injury and put up solid digits. I’m personally going to start him regardless of the matchup. EJ Henderson, the Vikings star linebacker was injured last week and their defense could suffer because of it. Larry Johnson is unstartable in this game.

Bengals: Benson -3, Johnson -5

Adrian Peterson has sat out and rested up this week in practice after being held to only 19 yards on 13 carries against the Cardinals. He’s such a competitor you’d think he’d be poised for a bounce back game but it’s going to be tough to do against the stingy Bengals. Chester Taylor is a PPR fill in, as usual.

Vikings: Peterson -3, Taylor -1

Seattle (16^th) @ Houston (19^th)

Julius Jones is horrible and he makes me angry. Jim Mora needs to wake up and realize what the entire football world already knows- Forsett’s a lot better than Julius Jones. If you own Jones bench him even if he starts. If you own Forsett pay attention to the rumor mill (and Razzball, on Sunday) to see if it looks like he’ll get more touches this week.

Seahawks: Jones -1, Forsett 0

Slaton going on IR is a real sledgehammer. I can definitely see Ryan Moats becoming the feature back and having a ton of value in PPR especially down the stretch. Chris Brown is basically a poor man’s Brandon Jacobs but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Brown is a must start but I would take a wait and see approach with Moats.

Texans: Brown +2, Moats +1

Buffalo (32^nd) @ Kansas City (31^st)

Coach Fewell reiterated that Fred Jackson will be the lead back going forward. Don’t expect a ton of opportunities for Marshawn Lynch in general but consider him a possible Sleeper next season depending on who he signs with. This game presents a bit of a quandary because the matchup is so good; start Lynch unless you have better running backs.

Bills: Jackson +3, Lynch +2

Jamaal Charles is a total stud at this point. If you were cagey (or just followed our advice this season) and grabbed him chances are you’re in the mix to win your league. This matchup is fantastic for him and the guys behind him can’t stay healthy so the carries should remain his. If you’re in a Keeper league you’re probably already looking forward to next season.

Chiefs: Charles +5

Green Bay (3^rd) @ Chicago (28^th)

You bore me, Ryan Grant. Just felt like throwing that out there. The Chicago defense has gone from “not as good as we thought/declining” to “horrible.” I hate to say it but Grant is a tremendous play for you on Sunday unless Lovey Smith finds a time machine in the next few days .

Packers: Grant +4

Matt Forte…. blah… I would honestly sit him this week in non PPR and consider doing so even in PPR formats. I’m sure you’ve been inundated by sportscasters about how good Green Bay’s defense is so I won’t go on and on about that. The Bears wilt in the face of any respectable defense so expect a complete meltdown from their offense in this contest.

Bears: Forte -5

Detroit (17^th) @Baltimore (11^th)

Kevin Smith was the only Detroit running back to touch the football against the Bengals and Jim Schwartz was showering him with compliments the way old, creepy men do to girls at Hooters. So even though the Ravens aren’t total pushovers I’d still expect a good game out of Smith. With Stafford and Johnson back this offense is starting to click.

Lions: Smith +1

A few weeks ago it looked like Ray Rice could be the second best running back to own in Fantasy down the stretch. That was when he was getting all the carries, including the ones on the goal line, however. People try to downgrade the importance of that but it’s HUGE. It doesn’t mean he’s not a stud anymore, he still is. But it does pull him out of the Steven Jackson, Chris Johnson territory.  He should be solid in this matchup. Willis McGahee, now receiving the goal line touches, is a potential start now depending on the matchup. In non PPR (or PPR, depending on the depth of your league) you can put him in your lineup and still look at yourself in the mirror.

Ravens: Rice +2, McGahee +3

Carolina (23^rd) @ New England (13^th)

DeAngelo Williams was a surprise inactive last Sunday. He is practicing this week and is allegedly fully healthy. Jonathon Stewart will return to his role as change of pace/goal line back; start him if he’s better than the rest but don’t let last week’s performance affect your decision. New England’s run defense is about as middle of the road as it gets.

Panthers: Williams 0, Stewart 0

By next week these two might be flipped around on the depth chart. In my .5 PPR league Maroney’s projected for an optimistic 12.92 against Carolina on Sunday. I happen to own him in that league and will probably end up sitting him. Both he and Morris could negate each other’s value going forward because it’s impossible to predict who is going to touch the ball when. Bill Belichick is annoying.

Patriots: Maroney 0, Morris 0

Denver (25^th) @ Indianapolis (15^th)

I know you’re going to be tempted to start Buckhalter this Sunday coming off his 113 yard performance but keep in mind he only got 12 carries and that number’s not likely increase. Knowshon Moreno will be a must start week in and week out regardless.

Broncos: Moreno 0, Buckhalter 0

Donald Brown’s injury troubles have boosted Addai’s value even further- now he is getting all sorts of additional rushing yardage/goal line carries we didn’t expect him to. He is truly one of the most underappreciated backs in Fantasy this season. Expect his usual studly output in this game.

Colts: Addai +2

Sunday 4 PM

Washington (20^th) @ Oakland (27^th)

In “Sleeper Math” two weeks ago I told everyone to pick up Ganther if you had room on your roster and I have continued to tout him. On Wednesday the Redskins announced that Ganther, not Rock Cartwright, will be the starter. He did a lot with the opportunities he was given before so I expect a big game out of him on Sunday. Start him wherever possible. Cartwright becomes a stash yet again even though the Raiders are a poor rush defense.

Redskins: Ganther +3, Cartwright +1

Albert Haynesworth is an almost guaranteed scratch for the Redskins this Sunday which bodes well for the Raiders running game. Fargas had 15 carries to McFadden’s 9 last week and has retained his grasp on the starting job. This matchup is attractive enough to tout Fargas as a #2 RB start and McFadden as a flex in deeper leagues.

Raiders: Fargas +3, McFadden +3

St. Louis (30^th) @ Tennessee (12^th)

Steven Jackson hardly practiced the last two weeks before games but he’s averaging almost 120 yards per game; thus I wouldn’t be concerned whatsoever that he’s being held out of practice yet again this week. He gets a slight downgrade for matchup but SJax is a quality RB #1 every week no matter what.

Rams: Jackson -1

I’m done with LenDale White until next season when he signs with a different team. Chris Johnson’s projections are almost 30 in PPR leagues- he could singlehandedly win for you this week.

Titans: Johnson +5

San Diego (7^th) @ Dallas (5^th)

The Chargers have moved the ball with ease against everyone this season so I doubt the Cowboys will be able to slow them down much. Tomlilnson gets a downgrade because the matchup is less juicy than average but he’s still a very solid play. Sproles shouldn’t be in your lineup unless it’s uber deep PPR.

Chargers: Tomlinson -3, Sproles -4

Marion Barber is annoying to own (I’m glad I don’t). You used to be able to count on him for yards and hope for touchdowns. Now he’s basically a rich man’s Willis McGahee and that’s a total kick in the junk considering he was draft in the 2^nd or 3^rd round in all leagues. You have to play him no matter what though. I would sit Felix Jones against the Chargers; if he doesn’t break off a huge TD run he kills your team.

Cowboys: Barber -2, Jones -3

Sunday Night Game

Philadelphia (9^th) @ NY Giants (6^th)

Earlier in the week there was optimism that Brian Westbrook would play against the Giants but not it’s an almost certainty that he won’t. LeSean McCoy continues to disappoint and make me look like a liar. The Giants defense is tougher than most to boot. Even so, you still have to start him.

Eagles: McCoy -3, Westbrook (probably won’t play)

Speaking of disappointing players…. Brandon Jacobs finally had the big game we’d been waiting for. There won’t be a ton of yardage for him in this contest but an end zone trip wouldn’t surprise me. Bradshaw’s still not getting off the bench on any team I own him in.

Giants: Jacobs -2, Bradshaw -3

Monday Night Game

Arizona (26^th) @ San Francisco (10^th)

Beanie continues to get the majority of the non goal line carries and will be useful in games down the stretch, just not this one. Yes, that means sit him. In PPR formats Tim Hightower’s still a flex play in my book this week.

Cardinals: Wells -3, Hightower -1

The 49’ers look to pound the ground game regardless of matchup but this week they should rely on it even more; expect 30+ touches from Gore and a very juicy stat line. If the Cardinals dominate time of possession it could diminish his digits but I still love the matchup.

49’ers: Gore +3

As Mark mentioned in his Aerial Preview yesterday we’re changing the way we rank defenses from here on out. We are going with the average yards allowed for the past six weeks in order to emphasize more how well defenses have been playing recently.

As an aside I’d like to inform everyone that “Game Day Companion,” which we roll out on Sundays will be changing from here on out. We are going to provide a dynamic injury update, continually changing  the post to reflect the latest injury announcements. I think you will really enjoy this new feature and it should make your life a lot simpler on Sundays. Best of luck  in crunch time!

Sunday 1 PM games

New England (12^th) @ Miami (21^st)

Maroney has fumbled in three straight games but he’s also scored eight touchdowns in the last six contests (with at least one in all of them). Belichick has said that Maroney will continue to work on ball security. Hopefully that means he won’t lose the goal line touches he’s been getting. Morris saw action but not enough to warrant a start in this game. Faulk continues to be a deep PPR fill-in option. Slight upgrade in this matchup for the Pats all the way around.

Patriots: Maroney +1, Morris +1, Faulk +1

Ricky Williams has basically become Ronnie Brown. So studly. As I’ve been saying previously I expect that Hilliard’s touches will continue to increase. I wouldn’t be anxious about starting him in this game because it’s not like you’re getting a juicy matchup.

Dolphins: Williams -1, Hilliard -2

St. Louis (31^st) @ Chicago (30^th)

Steven Jackson has a great chance to be the top overall scorer in Fantasy this week. There were rumors about him missing last Sundays game but he came out and played well. If he does get injured then Kenneth Darby would be next in line with Samkon Gado competing for touches.

Rams: Jackson +5

Matt Forte might actually do something in this game. I am giving him a very positive score for matchup but keep in mind that it’s relative to value and that right now he should be considered a middle of the road running back at best.

Bears: Forte +3

New Orleans (24^th) @ Washington (23^rd)

Reggie Bush said he could’ve played against the Patriots and reports are he’s good to go in this game. In PPR he’s a solid flex option. Pierre Thomas is a must start regardless of the inconsistent production (due mostly to Mike Bell’s TD vulturing). Speaking of Mike Bell he’s not a horrible start in this contest either; the Saints should be running the ball a lot in the second half and looking to rest Bush and Thomas.

Saints: Thomas +2, Bush +2, Bell +3

It’s looking more and more like Clinton Portis could be done for the season. Let’s rack it up here- calf injury, bone spurs, oh yeah and the concussion. The Redskins aren’t in playoff contention either. Look for a heapin’ helpin’ of Rock Cartwright going forward. He didn’t exactly explode against the Eagles but this might be a good opportunity for him to have a breakout game.

Redskins: Cartwright +2

Philadelphia (9^th) @ Atlanta (19^th)

McCoy’s going to continue to get a vast majority of the touches. Leonard Weaver and Eldra Buckley have been snaking some work, particularly on short yardage but neither of them are capable of challenging him. He should have a big game, especially with the injuries piling up on the Falcons (including Matt Ryan and Michael Turner). Their offense should struggle which means the Eagles should be on the field a lot.

Eagles: McCoy +3

It’s Jerious Norwood time!!!! The projections on him are running wild. Coming in to the season he looked like a “can’t miss” Sleeper if a Turner injury happened. In PPR you definitely have to start Norwood and in standard I’d put him in unless you’re super loaded. This isn’t a terrific matchup for Snelling; I’d leave him on the bench.

Falcons: Norwood -1, Snelling -2

Tennessee (13^th) @ Indianapolis (15^th)

Your basic Chris Johnson matchup. The only thing that could cost him would be if Peyton Manning chews clock. LenDale continues to be boring. I liked him a lot more when he was fat and lazy but scoring touchdowns every week.

Titans: Johnson 0, White -2

Joseph Addai’s always a good decision. Donald Brown’s status is still uncertain- he didn’t practice on Thursday and they are suggesting he won’t play Sunday.

Colts: Addai 0, Brown -3 (probably not playing)

Denver (26^th) @ Kansas City (22^nd)

Moreno’s looking like the main man but Buckhalter continues to get a lot of touches. In deeper leagues both are startable options but I’d rather have Moreno in the lineup if push came to shove. The Broncos should have no issues putting up points against this defense.

Broncos: Moreno +3, Buckhalter +3

I waited all season for the “Jamaal Charles” show. He has been a MONSTER since he’s gotten in the lineup and started. Look for more of the same in this matchup. Kolby Smith is nothing more than a possible stash at this point; he probably won’t even play on Sunday.

Chiefs: Charles +3

Houston (16^th) @ Jacksonville (17^th)

Steve Slaton’s not going to play in this game. Chris Brown has been announced as the starter with Ryan Moats backing him up.

Texans: Brown +3, Moats +3

It’s hilarious how MJD owners complain if he doesn’t score three touchdowns in a game. No reason to question his studliness in this contest. I still lust Rashad Jennings as a stash in deeper formats.

Jaguars: Jones-Drew +1

Detroit (14^th) @ Cincinnati (1^st)

Kevin Smith’s been running weak as of late. Maurice Morris should get a chance to be the main man in Detroit but he probably won’t. I would never own Kevin Smith in the first place but if I did he’d be riding the pine for shizzle against the Bengals.

Lions: Smith -10,000,000

Thankfully Bernard Scott is dinged up- less competition for my man Cedric Benson. He is ready to make his triumphant return with a great matchup. There’s buzz out there that Larry Johnson’s going to somehow end up with a lot of Benson’s touches but I don’t believe it.

Bengals: Benson +1, Johnson 0

Tampa Bay (27^th) @ Carolina (12^th)

Derrick Ward has a SEASON HIGH of 13 carries last Sunday. Oh boy, isn’t that exciting? Don’t talk yourself in to starting him. Williams will continue to get most of whatever there is on the ground. When he scores touchdowns he’ll be solid- when he doesn’t you’ll hate his face. This matchup is about as neutral as it gets.

Buccaneers:  Williams 0, Ward -1

DeAngelo Willams has been missing some practices lately but this is not uncommon for a player with his workload. Stewart will always get you yards but is never a serviceable start unless he manages to get in the end zone. He should be a definite flex start for you with this matchup, however.

Panthers: Williams +3, Stewart +3

Oakland (32^nd) @ Pittsburgh (3^rd)

The Oakland backfield is a hodge-podge of mediocrity right now. With the carries being split between Fargas, Bush, and McFadden they have all become unstartable in Fantasy. The matchup against the Steelers makes the situation even worse…

Raiders: McFadden -4, Fargas -4, Bush -4

Willie Parker got a few touches but it’s abundantly clear that Mendenhall won’t be challenged in Pittsburgh. This matchup should provide you with plenty of points if you own him. I am hesitant to step out on a ledge and say this but Willie Parker might be a viable flex option in deeper formats this week.

Mendenhall +5, Parker +4

4 PM games

San Diego (6^th) @ Cleveland (29^th)

One of the big surprises to me has been LaDanian Tomlinson coming back and being so productive. He might end up tendering a decent contract in the offseason from someone after all. This matchup is golden for him. Sproles might get some work in also, particularly late in the game.

Chargers: Tomlinson +4, Sproles +3

Jamal Lewis was placed on Injured Reserve this week, paving the way for possible relevance out of the Cleveland backfield. Loyal readers know I’ve been big on Chris Jennings for several weeks now and I think he’ll see the majority of the work; Jerome Harrison’s ineffectiveness in pass protection will cost him playing time. For this game I wouldn’t start either one of them unless you’re really stuck. In that case you can go with Jennings if you have to. But after this week we’ll have a really good idea of what to expect going forward.

Browns: Jennings -2, Harrison -4

San Francisco (8^th) @ Seattle (20^th)

Frank Gore should be his usual productive self in this game. Barring injury he’s one of the best players to own down the stretch.

49’ers: Gore+2

Julius Jones has been practicing this week and it looks like he’ll be ready to play on Sunday. This ruins Justin Forsett’s value even though Jim Mora has suggested he’ll continue to give him significant time. If Jones does end up playing I would keep both him and Forsett out of your lineup.

Seahawks: Jones -3, Forsett -3

Dallas (7^th) @ New York Giants (10^th)

Marion Barber is a must start but unfortunately he kills you if he fails to get in the end zone. Felix Jones is a true home run hitter but if he doesn’t break off a long run for a touchdown your score will suffer also. Tashard Choice shouldn’t be in anyone’s lineup at this point.

Cowboys: Barber -1, Jones -2, Choice -2

Brandon Jacobs is what he is at this point- a glorified goal line back. But you have to start him considering he’ll get a majority of the touches. Bradshaw’s been practicing this week and it looks like he’ll play but I wouldn’t advise putting him in your lineup.

Giants: Jacobs -2, Bradshaw -4

Sunday 8 PM game

Minnesota (2^nd) @ Arizona (28^th)

Adrian Peterson should put up big digits in this contest as the Vikings attempt to chew clock and keep the Cardinals off the field. Chester Taylor continues to be a respectable fill-in.

Vikings: Peterson +4, Taylor +1

If you drafted Tim Hightower in PPR leagues you know who your MVP (relative to value) will probably be at the end of the season. I’d still start him in this game regardless of the stout Vikings run D because of his viability in the passing game. I would sit Beanie Wells unless you have no better options.

Cardinals: Wells -5, Hightower -2

Monday 8 PM game

Baltimore (11^th) @ Green Bay (5^th)

Ray Rice is immune to matchups so don’t be nervous about the matchup. McGahee isn’t much of an option in this contest unless he gets lucky and puts it in the end zone.

Ravens: Rice -2, McGahee -4

Ryan Grant should be in your lineup as he continues to be “the guy” in Green Bay. I can see Baltimore shutting him down but the goal line carries would be enough for me to start him. Rodgers will probably air the ball out quite a bit and utilize the screen game to try and keep Baltimore off balance.

Packers: Grant -1