Fantasy Football Advice

With the news of Thomas Jones being put out to pasture every Shonn Greene keeper/dynasty leaguer got a tingly feeling in their nether regions.  Jones was going to cost too much for a 32 year old player even though he put up great back to back seasons for the Jets.  He has shown that 32 is the new 27, but with the kind of money he was going to make it just didn’t make sense for the Jets to keep him when Shonn Greene proved in the playoffs that he could handle the load.

Thomas Jones has been one of the healthier backs for the last few years and I don’t see him needing to get on Monster.com to find a job.  There are plenty of teams in need of a veteran back.  San Diego just let L.T. go and they didn’t tender an offer to Sproles.  Philadelphia let Westbrook go and I just don’t see McCoy getting more than 15 touches a game.  Detroit needs another back with Maurice Morris not an every down back.  Shannahan says Portis is his guy, but Washington has to know that there is a very slim chance he’ll last the season. New England is always in the market for aging running backs.  Houston is looking for running backs even though they might be going the draft route.  The Seahawks have Forsett, but we don’t really know their commitment to him yet.  Whatever team he ends up with will help us decide where to project his numbers. The Jets offensive line is elite, so it will be tough for him to come anywhere close to last season’s numbers, but in the right circumstance he could once again defy his age and his ADP.

With Jones gone, Shonn Greene becomes an instant fantasy stud.  I’ve seen many people calling him a second round back, but I’m much more inclined to throw him into the end of the first round.  His back to back big games in the playoffs showed that he can be the man and in a big way. He has speed and power to spare.  Jones had over 1400 yards and 14 touchdowns behind the Jets line.  If Greene had the same number of opportunities, I believe his numbers would have exceeded Jones’.  I am being a little conservative with his projected numbers since he hasn’t proven he can hold up for a whole season, but I’m also of the mind that players who have put up numbers for whole seasons have also been hit over and over for whole seasons, which makes their bodies not as whole.  Just like real GM’s, fantasy GM’s need to get to these backs early.  Say you grab Greene instead of Manning/Rodgers/Brees?  Yes, you know those guys are going to give you numbers whereas Greene is riskier, but I much rather grab Greene and then Rivers/Schaub/Romo than Brees and someone like Matt Forte.

Is Greene that much better than most of the running backs out there? No, he’s not.  Or at least he hasn’t proven it yet.  But his situation is better than most running backs.  Leon Washington is the only real threat to steal carries and he is obviously the third down/scat back at this point.  Greene will be the sole goal line back.  Rex Ryan wants his defense and his offense to keep the other team’s offense off the field.  I’m trying to say he likes running the ball.  And there is no reason to believe the Jets’ defense is going to collapse, so they won’t be playing catch up and as Sanchez improves it will take some of the heat off the running game, even though they did pretty well even when defenses knew Sanchez wasn’t going to pass.  As fantasy footballers we couldn’t have really designed a better scenario for a running back.  So when your league mates are grabbing the old reliable Ryan Grants of the world, grab Shonn Greene, and then point and laugh and make baudy comments regarding their mothers.

Running back is the most volatile position and in dynasty leagues that can be scary.  As soon as a back reaches 30 they are sent off in a space ship to Vorgon 7, so you must draft some youngsters and then some youngster back-ups and then some 15 year old prodigy types.  A trade or injury can make an ok running back into a top ten running back in short order and the other into a short order cook.

Tier 1

1. Chris Johnson 25 — You know what he can do.

2. Adrian Peterson 25 — Purple Jesus can still raise the dead (he just has trouble holding onto the ball).

3. Maurice Jones Drew 25 — He’s got a nose for the goal line.

4. Ray Rice 23 — I’m not too worried about McGahee and these are Dynasty rankings we are talking bout.

Tier 2

5. Jamaal Charles 23 — Probably deserves Tier 1 status, but needs to perform for a whole year.

6. Rashard Mendenhall 23 — Young and the #1 on a good team.

7. Shonn Greene 25 — With Jones gone he could rush Rex Ryan’s weight in a single game.

8. Frank Gore 27 — Steady and versatile, but aging and injury prone.

9. Beanie Wells 22 — Hightower will be eating his dust.

10. Steven Jackson 27 — Will put up good numbers, but his team is an albatross around his neck.

Tier 3

11. Jonathan Stewart 23 — His age and ability trump his RBBC lot in life.

12. Michael Turner 28 — He can put up TD’s with the best of them.

13. Knowshon Moreno 23 — Didn’t overwhelm in his rookie season, but his situation is ripe for success.

14. DeAngelo Williams 27 –  He’s too good to knock down far even though he’s older than his RBBC pal.

Tier 4

15. Ryan Grant 27 — On a great offense.  Steady production.

16. Donald Brown 23 — RBBC for now, but youth always wins out.

17. Cedric Benson 27 — Bengals have become run first.

18. Pierre Thomas 25 — Just hope Payton gives him some goal line work.

19. Matt Forte 24 — Chester Taylor hurts him, but thankfully Taylor will be 31 this season.

20. Felix Jones 23 — Worried about his health, but see him getting the most numbers in cow town.

Tier 5

21. LeSean McCoy 22 — He’ll move up the ranks if the Eagles don’t grab a veteran.

22. Joseph Addai 27 — Has some productive committee years left.

23. Ahmad Bradshaw 24 — Jacobs and he were both injured, but he outplayed him.

24. Ronnie Brown 28 — He could slip further depending on how his injury looks, but he is an elite talent.

25. Justin Forsett 24 — Showed he was the best RB on the Seahawks last season.  If they don’t grab anyone else, he’ll be golden.

Tier 6

26. Brandon Jacobs 28 — I’m not a fan, but if he’s healthy he can get in the endzone.

27. Marshawn Lynch 24 — His age and past production make him hard to pass on.

28. Jerome Harrison 27 — I wanted to put him higher, but he’ll probably be in a committee.

29. Fred Jackson 29 — There’s a good chance he’ll get the bulk of the carries this season, but he is old (which makes me ancient).

Tier 7

30. Reggie Bush 25 — Reggie Bush type.

31. Darren Sproles 27 — Reggie Bush type, but older.

32. Darren McFadden 23 — Lots of talent, but is on a bad team and might be a Reggie Bush type.

33. Kevin Smith 23 — His injuries and inability to run well are worrisome, but he has time for redemption.

34. Marion Barber 27 — Most Barbarians have short life spans.

Tier 8

35. Michael Bush 26 — Could end up being the starter on a bad team.

36. Thomas Jones 32 — Doesn’t get hurt so should have a year or two left.  Depends on the team he winds up on.

37. Laurence Maroney 25 — Had a great stretch last season.  Still young.

38. Tashard Choice 25 — Barber is declining.  Jones is injury prone.

39. Chester Taylor 31 — Role is undefined now in Chicago, but he could do some things in a Martz offense.

40. Steve Slaton 24 — Had a great rookie season.  Has skills.  Benched. Is hurt. Flier.

Tier 9

41. Leon Washington 28 — Looks like he’ll be ready to go all season in a run first offense.

42. Tim Hightower 24 — Still young, but will be a Beanie back-up.

43. LenDale White 25 — A bit risky, but anywhere other than behind CJ will help him.

44. Willis McGahee 28 — Staying in Baltimore will hurt his value.

45. Ricky Williams 33 — Should get you one more productive year.

46. Carnell Williams 28 — Lasted all last season.  Probably won’t this season.

47. Arian Foster 24 — He showed some awesomeness, but the Texans are looking at RB’s in the draft.

Tier 10

48. James Davis 24 — Young and will compete with Jerome Harrison for the starting job.

49. Bernard Scott 26 — If Benson goes down he would easily take up the slack.

50. Lex Hilliard 26 — Ricky is old. Ronnie is oldish/injuryish.

51. Jerious Norwood 27 — Turner has had a lot of carries.  Norwood should be healthy.

52. LaDainian Tomlinson 31 — Should hook up with a new team.  A lot depends on that team.

53. Glen Coffee 23 — Gore is injury prone.

54. Rashad Jennings 25 — Just has MJD blocking him.

55. Derrick Ward 30 — Will be in the mix, but the recipe is bland.

56. Maurice Morris 30 — Might, might, be a starter if the Lions are dumb.

57. Correl Buckhalter 31 — Should still be the #2 in the mountains, but old.

Tier 11

58. Tyrell Sutton 23 — A good change of pace back that could flourish with an opportunity.

59. Mike Goodson 23 — See above.

60. Mike Bell 27 — Should find a team and his value will depend on that team

61. Chris Jennings 24 — Slim chance to get into the mix after Harrison and Davis.

62. Jason Snelling 26 — Norwood was hurt much of last season so Snelly got the work.

63. Larod Stephens-Howling 23 — Has the ability to be a Reggie Bush type.

64. Javon Ringer 23 — Would probably pick up the reps if CJ goes down as long as White is gone.

65. Brian Westbrook 31 — If he hooks up with the right team and looks healthy I could see moving him up a little, but I’m not taking him.

updated 3/6/10

As expected Ladainian Tomlinson was released by the Chargers.  The fantasy Gods are pouring out a forty for the old man as we speak.  Money rules and running backs thirty and over drool, and will soon be on Dancing With The Stars or hawking hair dye or male enhancement pills.  L.T. is probably the best fantasy running back of all time, but I’m sure we get to watch him decline some more on another team like so many great running backs before him.  I remember watching Franco Harris in an ugly Seahawks uniform lumbering around.  That was sad.

Now L.T. wants a Super Bowl, so he’ll be looking to go to a team with a chance of going all the way.  But he will have to take a pay cut and a role cut.  If he is ok to just be a third down option, he should be able to hook up with a team eventually, but I don’t see him being much of a fantasy contributor because he is old and averaged 3.3 yards last season.

Tim Tebow: He looks just like a guy I went to grad school with, who was a drug addict and wannabe Johnny Cash poet.  We’ll call him Dave (which is actually his name).  He tried changing.  He decided that coke was just not helping him in his career goals.  Tim Tebow decided something similar.  He had been relying on bad throwing mechanics, but realized they also were not helping him reach his career goals, so he is going to try changing.  I saw Dave the last time I went back home.  He didn’t look too good.

Thomas Jones: Word is, if Leon Washington’s rehab is going well and it looks like he’ll be able to start week 1, Tom Jones might be on the road like Tom Joad.  This is huge news if true.  Shonn Greene would become a 1st round fantasy player with Jones out.  It’s all speculation at this point, but that’s some of the best kind of ulation.

Laurent Robinson: For the first couple games of last season Robinson was easily the Rams best receiver, but he then fractured his fibula ending his season.  Robinson will be back and ready for the off season program, but will now need to battle Brandon Gibson who flashed some talent after Robinson went down.  I like these Rams receivers.  If they can somehow get a QB they could be fantasy worthy.  But that’s a Wilfork sized if.

Brian Westbrook: It’s looking more and more likely that Westy will be released by the Eagles.  He is 31, often injured, concussed twice last season and due over 7 million next year.  I doubt he’ll hook up with a new team unless he really wants to take a pay cut and fight for a job.  This may be the end for yet another great fantasy running back.  I used to hate running backs who held out and wanted to add to their millions, but no longer.  They have a very short shelf life and now that the NFL is a QB centered league, they need to get paid when they can.

Continuing from back in the day when I posted on the first three rounds of our mock draft, I have rounds 4-7 for your enjoyment.  You should also check out some other posts on the draft from my mockonspirators Melissa Jacobs at Football Girl, Bryan Fontaine at Rookie Blitz and Matt Schauf at RapidDraft.

My picks are in bold, because they’re bold.

Round Four

37. Anquan Boldin

38. Joseph Addai

39. Steve Smith (CAR)

40. Marques Colston

41. Wes Welker

42. Cedric Benson

43. Jerome Harrison

44. Shonn Greene

45. Sidney Rice

46. Steve Smith (NYG)

47. Braylon Edwards

48. Brandon Jacobs

– Braylon Edwards is the ultimate risk reward player, heavy on the risk, with a side of risk

– Both Steve Smiths made an appearance in the 4th round.  They are opposites in many ways and have different strengths.  The Mighty Giant is a consistent ppr stud, but won’t get you big yardage and TD games, while Mighty Mouse is the exact opposite; he won’t be consistent, but will have some huge games.

– Joseph Addai pulled off a great year when many thought he was on his way out, but can he do it again?  I’m not going to doubt him completely, but I have to be realistic and believe his numbers won’t be as high as last year with Donald Brown having a season under his belt.

– Shonn Greene and Jerome Harrison both turned it on toward the end of the season and I like both in the fourth round.  They have tremendous upside if they can get the ball.

– I think the steal of the draft has to be Cedric Benson this late.  It’s not a sexy pick, but he will get the bulk of the touches and is one of the few RBs that can make such a bold and outlandish claim.

Round Five

49. Donovan McNabb

50. Vernon Davis

51. Thomas Jones

52. Jay Cutler

53. Dallas Clark

54. Hakeem Nicks

55. Santonio Holmes

56. Jonathan Stewart

57. Antonio Gates

58. Dwayne Bowe

59. Brent Celek

60. Jason Witten

– I don’t really know where Jay Cutler’s ADP will be this season, but with many QB’s gone at this point I felt like I needed to grab a top QB.  When you hear the term “top QB,” Jay Cutler’s name doesn’t pop into your mind, but the guy is going to wing it, fling it, and sting it with Martz at the joystick.

– Thomas Jones went a round after Shonn Greene and I bet we’ll see that happening quite a bit this season.  It would be nice to know exactly how the committee will be split up, but you really have to pick the young guy with upside first.

– Jonathan Stewart went ballistic toward the end of last season and there are even rumors that D Willy could be going elsewhere, but I just don’t see that happening.  The Panthers will need both their running backs to compete, which means they will be splitting up those yummy fantasy points.

– I like Santonio Holmes this late.  I could see him going much earlier in drafts this season cuz he’s just that good.

Round Six

61. Terrell Owens

62. Chad Ochocinco

63. Greg Olsen

64. Donald Driver

65. Pierre Garcon

66. Michael Crabtree

67. Ben Roethlisberger

68. Hines Ward

69. Derrick Mason

70. Mike Sims Walker

71. Darren McFadden

72. Fred Jackson

– Here’s where my old man wide receiver crush comes into play once again.  Mason is steady and unless the Ravens get someone other than Stalloworth, like Boldin, I don’t see his numbers taking a huge hit this year.

– I’m loving fast Freddy Jackson at #72.  He showed that he can hold up for a season while getting the bulk of the carries and also showed that he can have huge games in the process.  We can’t be sure how he will be used, but he will be used.

– Terrell Owens might be worth something on the right team, but I won’t be grabbing him unless he falls further, and if he’s falling off the edge of a cliff I might just let him go.

– Mike Martz’s first born child was stolen by a tight end.

Round Seven

73. Robert Meachem

74. T.J. Houshmandzadeh

75. Tony Gonzalez

76. Ahmad Bradshaw

77. Eli Manning

78. Jermichael Finley

79. Owen Daniels

80. LeSean McCoy

81. Felix Jones

82. Kenny Britt

83. Percy Harvin

84. Jeremy Maclin

–Round seven brought out the upside picks.  Maclin, Harvin, Meachem and Britt are all young receivers with a lot of reasons to think they could break out this season. Britt has the least competition for touches, but also has Vince Young throwing to him.

– I always want at least one decent running back back-up and here I was choosing between Bradshaw and Jones.  I like both and both have injury issues, but also could end up having huge years since both are obviously the most talented backs on their team.   I like Bradshaw just a bit more than Jones.

– T.J. Houshmandzadeh is an interesting pick.  I don’t like him, but we could see that Seahawks offense really open up under Carroll.  I can’t help but worry about Hasselbeck sleeping awkwardly in a team meeting and rupturing his spleen.

– Jermichael Finley is going to go early this season.  I agree that he is worth a high ranking, but he’s still a tight end and tight ends are deep.  That didn’t sound right did it?

So instead of hearing about Favre every day until the Super Bowl we get to see grainy color film of the Manning boys playing catch in the backyard and hear tales of Drew Brees in his motor boat picking people off roofs.  I’m mainly happy that I don’t have to hear Rex Ryan blathering on about how his team should be favored.  Maybe he was saying flavored instead of favored?  Is that why he has put on an extra 150 pounds?  Are there any back up Jets’ kickers missing?

I’ll save you all the suspense; I’m going with The Mannings in this bout of white bread vs. Creole.  Besides the fact that I think Peyton is the ultimate X factor, I refuse to root for any team with Jeremy Shockey on it to win the Super Bowl. As commenter Danimal35 said, no team that lost to the Buccaneers in the regular season has ever won the Super Bowl.  I think that record will continue in Miami in two weeks.  Two weeks!? Ugh.

Peyton Manning: I would like to thank Manning for not making me look too stupid in front of my throngs of readers.  Hi mom! My prediction that passing is the new fad to take over the NFL was correct!  And also thanks to Bradbury Robinson and his “projectile pass,” which sounds more like vomit than football, but whatevs.  Even though the AFC Championship wasn’t a last second affair like the NFC game, it was a better all around game without the fumbleruski play being implemented on each drive.  Peyton once again showed why he is the best QB in the game by steering away from Revis Island and docking most his passes on Collie Reef and in Garcon Bay.  Next week he gets the turnover happy, but not very cover happy pass defense.

Joseph Addai: He came out of the game again this week, but managed to get back in there and out rush the rushing elite Jets.  With 2 weeks rest he will be ready to go in the Super Bowl against the poor Saints’ rush defense.

Pierre Garcon: He had 11 receptions, 151 yards and a touchdown and I could chalk it all up to Revis taking out Wayne, but Garcon didn’t look like he was just a beneficiary of a lot of targets and poor defensive backs; he made some amazing catches.  I like Anthony Gonzalez, but he may have just been Wally Pipped.

Austin Collie: Collie also came up big, but didn’t look quite as athletic after the catch as Garcon.  He ended up with a great 123 yards and a touchdown grab, but should see his role decreased a little as long as Darrelle Revis doesn’t make the trip to Miami.

Reggie Bush: He caught a pass for a touchdown, but otherwise he once again showed why he is pretty much worthless in the sense of things that are worth something, which he isn’t.  He muffed a punt, or bushed it, if you will. And by muffed or bushed, I mean that he bailed out so he wouldn’t get hit.

Pierre Thomas: He totaled 99 yards and a rushing touchdown and looks like he’ll continue to be the go to guy in the Super Bowl after Reggie Bush had no luck running the ball.  He was the second Pierre to have a good game on Championship Sunday.  What happened to all the Merican football players?!!

Drew Brees: He has 6 touchdowns and no interceptions in the playoffs so far.  It was difficult to tell if he was playing or not since all I can remember is Brett limping around, but looking back at the stats it looks like he was.  He didn’t out grit Ol’ Favre, but he was steady.  He gets a Colts pass defense that wasn’t really tested by Flacco and Sanchez actually looked good against them.  Look for around 1,000 total yards passing in Miami.

Devery Henderson: The DH has come up big in the playoffs so far.  Picking what receivers will get the yards and touchdowns for the Saints is a crapola shoot at best, but if you like riding the hot hand, and who doesn’t?, then get DH in your lineup.  I think the DH is allowed to play in a neutral stadium.

Brett Favre: He really did get beat like a 40 year old pinata, but made some amazing throws in the process.  His last throw was a pick, but I still can’t understand why Childress was running the ball and settling for a 51 yard field goal?  Then, after having too many men in the huddle, the Vikings were pretty much out of field goal range and Favre had to make a play, so he forced it like is his want to do, and got pickaruskied.  It wasn’t like they were on the five yard line and needed a chip shot to win it.  Whatever happens with Favre he proved that he can still play at an elite level, which just doesn’t happen with 40 year oldies.

Adrian Peterson: He had some great runs and three touchdowns and some really bad ball control, no not the Paris Hilton kind (sorry mom), but the fumbling kind.  He needs to figure some shizz out and quick.  He hasn’t lost his speed or moves or power, but he doesn’t look like he knows what the eighch he’s doing out there.  He just plows ahead with reckless abandon and coughs up the ball (see Paris Hilton) more than he should.  He had an amazing game statistically and there is no reason to think he will slow down fantasy wise.  So why should we care?!

Sidney Rice: He caught a touchdown, but saw a lot of double coverage, so Favre looked elsewhere.  Rice has the skills to be an elite #1 receiver in this league, but TJax isn’t the guy to help him remain an elitist.

Bernard Berrian: 102 yards receiving was his highest number for the season.  His age, injury proneness, competition, and possible loss of Favre make him free agency fodder in a lot of leagues next season.

Mark Sanchez: I was impressed by the Bearded-Sanchez.  When he needed to make throws he made them.  Ryan should have actually turned him loose in the early downs more often instead of plodding ahead with the ineffective running game, but what do I know? (don’t answer that).  Sanchez will continue to improve, but his fantasy value should still have a low ceiling (think Gandalf in Bag End) next year.  If they can keep Greene, Jones and Washington they should continue to run it down opponents’ throats.

Shonn Greene: He injured his ribs and only ended up with 10 carries for 48 yards, but he had already shown his ability in the games before this.  He is going to be super-hyped, especially if Thomas Jones is let go due to salary and oldness.  If that happens, I’ll probably be conducting the super-hype train.

Braylon Edwards: He ended up with 100 yards and a long touchdown which he amazingly caught.  Edwards must be a head case or maybe he just can’t catch, but he has the ability to get open and make amazing catches when the ball doesn’t hit him directly in the hands. I’ll always be wary of drafting him.

Jerricho Cotchery: Sanchez hooked up with Cotchery 5 times for 102 yards.  The Cotch Rocket is a steady receiver and should continue to be as Sanchez blossoms.  Looking back at what I just wrote I could be writing a review of a new ABC Family show. If they make a pregnancy pact I am going to freak out!