Fantasy Football Advice

Running back is the most volatile position and in dynasty leagues that can be scary.  As soon as a back reaches 30 they are sent off in a space ship to Vorgon 7, so you must draft some youngsters and then some youngster back-ups and then some 15 year old prodigy types.  A trade or injury can make an ok running back into a top ten running back in short order and the other into a short order cook.

Tier 1

1. Chris Johnson 25 — You know what he can do.

2. Adrian Peterson 25 — Purple Jesus can still raise the dead (he just has trouble holding onto the ball).

3. Maurice Jones Drew 25 — He’s got a nose for the goal line.

4. Ray Rice 23 — I’m not too worried about McGahee and these are Dynasty rankings we are talking bout.

Tier 2

5. Jamaal Charles 23 — Probably deserves Tier 1 status, but needs to perform for a whole year.

6. Rashard Mendenhall 23 — Young and the #1 on a good team.

7. Shonn Greene 25 — With Jones gone he could rush Rex Ryan’s weight in a single game.

8. Frank Gore 27 — Steady and versatile, but aging and injury prone.

9. Beanie Wells 22 — Hightower will be eating his dust.

10. Steven Jackson 27 — Will put up good numbers, but his team is an albatross around his neck.

Tier 3

11. Jonathan Stewart 23 — His age and ability trump his RBBC lot in life.

12. Michael Turner 28 — He can put up TD’s with the best of them.

13. Knowshon Moreno 23 — Didn’t overwhelm in his rookie season, but his situation is ripe for success.

14. DeAngelo Williams 27 –  He’s too good to knock down far even though he’s older than his RBBC pal.

Tier 4

15. Ryan Grant 27 — On a great offense.  Steady production.

16. Donald Brown 23 — RBBC for now, but youth always wins out.

17. Cedric Benson 27 — Bengals have become run first.

18. Pierre Thomas 25 — Just hope Payton gives him some goal line work.

19. Matt Forte 24 — Chester Taylor hurts him, but thankfully Taylor will be 31 this season.

20. Felix Jones 23 — Worried about his health, but see him getting the most numbers in cow town.

Tier 5

21. LeSean McCoy 22 — He’ll move up the ranks if the Eagles don’t grab a veteran.

22. Joseph Addai 27 — Has some productive committee years left.

23. Ahmad Bradshaw 24 — Jacobs and he were both injured, but he outplayed him.

24. Ronnie Brown 28 — He could slip further depending on how his injury looks, but he is an elite talent.

25. Justin Forsett 24 — Showed he was the best RB on the Seahawks last season.  If they don’t grab anyone else, he’ll be golden.

Tier 6

26. Brandon Jacobs 28 — I’m not a fan, but if he’s healthy he can get in the endzone.

27. Marshawn Lynch 24 — His age and past production make him hard to pass on.

28. Jerome Harrison 27 — I wanted to put him higher, but he’ll probably be in a committee.

29. Fred Jackson 29 — There’s a good chance he’ll get the bulk of the carries this season, but he is old (which makes me ancient).

Tier 7

30. Reggie Bush 25 — Reggie Bush type.

31. Darren Sproles 27 — Reggie Bush type, but older.

32. Darren McFadden 23 — Lots of talent, but is on a bad team and might be a Reggie Bush type.

33. Kevin Smith 23 — His injuries and inability to run well are worrisome, but he has time for redemption.

34. Marion Barber 27 — Most Barbarians have short life spans.

Tier 8

35. Michael Bush 26 — Could end up being the starter on a bad team.

36. Thomas Jones 32 — Doesn’t get hurt so should have a year or two left.  Depends on the team he winds up on.

37. Laurence Maroney 25 — Had a great stretch last season.  Still young.

38. Tashard Choice 25 — Barber is declining.  Jones is injury prone.

39. Chester Taylor 31 — Role is undefined now in Chicago, but he could do some things in a Martz offense.

40. Steve Slaton 24 — Had a great rookie season.  Has skills.  Benched. Is hurt. Flier.

Tier 9

41. Leon Washington 28 — Looks like he’ll be ready to go all season in a run first offense.

42. Tim Hightower 24 — Still young, but will be a Beanie back-up.

43. LenDale White 25 — A bit risky, but anywhere other than behind CJ will help him.

44. Willis McGahee 28 — Staying in Baltimore will hurt his value.

45. Ricky Williams 33 — Should get you one more productive year.

46. Carnell Williams 28 — Lasted all last season.  Probably won’t this season.

47. Arian Foster 24 — He showed some awesomeness, but the Texans are looking at RB’s in the draft.

Tier 10

48. James Davis 24 — Young and will compete with Jerome Harrison for the starting job.

49. Bernard Scott 26 — If Benson goes down he would easily take up the slack.

50. Lex Hilliard 26 — Ricky is old. Ronnie is oldish/injuryish.

51. Jerious Norwood 27 — Turner has had a lot of carries.  Norwood should be healthy.

52. Larry Johnson 30 — I don’t like him, but he could start for the Native Americans.

53. LaDainian Tomlinson 31 — Should hook up with a new team.  A lot depends on that team.

54. Glen Coffee 23 — Gore is injury prone.

55. Rashad Jennings 25 — Just has MJD blocking him.

56. Derrick Ward 30 — Will be in the mix, but the recipe is bland.

57. Maurice Morris 30 — Might, might, be a starter if the Lions are dumb.

58. Correl Buckhalter 31 — Should still be the #2 in the mountains, but old.

Tier 11

59. Tyrell Sutton 23 — A good change of pace back that could flourish with an opportunity.

60. Mike Goodson 23 — See above.

61. Mike Bell 27 — Should find a team and his value will depend on that team

62. Chris Jennings 24 — Slim chance to get into the mix after Harrison and Davis.

63. Jason Snelling 26 — Norwood was hurt much of last season so Snelly got the work.

64. Larod Stephens-Howling 23 — Has the ability to be a Reggie Bush type.

65. Javon Ringer 23 — Would probably pick up the reps if CJ goes down as long as White is gone.

66. Brian Westbrook 31 — If he hooks up with the right team and looks healthy I could see moving him up a little, but I’m not taking him.

updated 3/13/10

There is no off season here at Razzball (except for that 48 hour bender right after the Super Bowl). We’ve already got ourselves a slow mock draft happening to kick off the beginning of the 2010-2011 season.  Yes, there will be a lot of changes as the so-called off season moves players around and brings in new, younger ones, but doing mocks is a great way to see how others value players and helps solidify where you value players.  Here are my co-conspirator mockaletes.

1. Matt Schauf – RapidDraft.com

2. Melissa Jacobs - TheFootballGirl.com

3. Melissa Greenhawt – GoGameFace.com

4. Chet Gresham – This Guy

5. Jim Day - FFWhiz.com

6. Charlie Tourtillotte — Tourinct

7. Mike Clay – FantasyDC.com

8. Steve Adler - FantasyDaddy.com

9. Paul M. Bourdett – BaseHeads.com

10. Drew Silva – Rotoworld.com

11. Bryan Fontaine – RookieBlitz.com

12. Knox Bardeen – Fanhouse.com

We’re still mocking each other so I’ll keep you updated on our progress.  My picks are in bold.  Here are the first three rounds for your amusement:

Round One

1. Maurice Jones Drew

2. Chris Johnson

3. Adrian Peterson

4. Ray Rice

5. Michael Turner

6. Andre Johnson

7. Frank Gore

8. Steven Jackson

9. Jamaal Charles

10. Matt Forte

11. Aaron Rodgers

12. Ryan Grant

– The first round had most of the usual suspects in it, but MJD at #1 was a little surprising. He’s in my 1st tier and I can see him being a #1 pick, but I’m a little worried about Garrard getting him to the goal line as much as he needs. Matt defends his pick here.

– I felt good about getting Ray Rice 4th.  If I had to choose a draft position it would be one of the top 4 or at the turn at 11/12.  I don’t think you can go wrong with any of the top 4 picks and if you get 4th you don’t have to decide!

– Drew went with Forte at #10 which is within the realm of where his ADP will be, but I will probably pass on him unless it’s a ppr league.  Martz likes to use his running backs in the passing game, a lot.

– Aaron Rodgers will be in the running for the #1 quarterback off the board, but after last year’s ten 4,ooo yard passers, I’ll be waiting on a quarterback.

– Since I’m pro Chris Johnson, getting him at #2 is good value, but no picks really stood out to me as steals.  I have Jamaal Charles ranked higher than he went, but that second tier is pretty fluid with Gore, A.J., SJax and Charles.

Round Two

13. Drew Brees

14. Larry Fitzgerald

15. Peyton Manning

16. Rashard Mendenhall

17. Calvin Johnson

18. Reggie Wayne

19. Pierre Thomas

20. DeAngelo Williams

21. Chris Wells

22. Philip Rivers

23. Tom Brady

24. Miles Austin

– The second round saw a big run on quarterbacks.  Once again I just can’t grab a QB with the first 2 picks.  It’s against my code of fake football ethics.  Running backs or wide receivers for me please.  My options at RB were dwindling fast, but I had a difficult time choosing between Beanie, Moreno and Benson.  But for my money, Beanie has the highest upside of the 3.  Whisenhunt won’t put as much of the game in Leinart’s hands, especially with a back as talented as Wells showing his worth toward the end of last season.

– I am a little worried about DeAngelo Williams after Jon Stewart went crazy after D. Willy went down toward the end of the season.  I could even see Stewart out playing him this year, but any way you look at it he isn’t guaranteed the bulk of the carries.

– The same could be true for Pierre Thomas, but I am a little more concerned about him staying healthy than being the primary back.

– I think one of the best picks of round 2 was by Matt who grabbed Miles Austin with the last pick.  I thought about snagging him, but just liked Wells too much.  Austin could easily be a top 3 wide receiver with a full season as the #1 WR in Dallas. Witten will be his only real rival for looks unless Jones gets an itchy finger and tries for a Boldin/Marshall trade.

Round Three

25. Randy Moss

26. Brandon Marshall

27. Ronnie Brown

28. Vincent Jackson

29. Greg Jennings

30. Roddy White

31. Matt Schaub

32. Tony Romo

33. DeSean Jackson

34. Steve Slaton

35. Knowshon Moreno

36. Marion Barber

– It’s interesting to see how far Randy Moss fell.  Even in a not great season he was a fantasy stud with his ability to get into the endzone, but he is also starting to show his age whileWelker could be gone for a big chunk of time which will get Moss a lot of attention if Edelman doesn’t go nuts.  I like Moss here, but I’m still trying to decide if I like him earlier as well.

– I felt good about Vincent Jackson in the third.  The Chargers will once again have to rely on the passing game and VJax should continue to improve.

– Brandon Marshall’s value is still up in the air since we aren’t sure where he’ll end up, but if he can have a big year with Orton, he has a shot of having a big year anywhere.

– I think both Slaton and Barber went too early as they don’t have the starting job wrapped up for next season.  I won’t own a Texan’s running back this season unless they trade for Purple Jesus or his like.  I also won’t own a Cowboy running back unless Felix Jones really slips.  Jones could get the most touches next season, but his injury history is worrisome.  I’ll pass.

– My favorite pick of round 3 is probably Knowshon Moreno.  The Broncos are a bit of a question mark with Josh McDaniels taking multiple power trips, but Moreno is their back and Buckhalter, though awesome last year, isn’t getting any younger and should continue to pop up on the injury report.  And Moreno will have a full off season and preseason compared to his holdout last year.

Yes, the Super Bowl has yet to be played, but why not start looking forward to next season? I don’t know. Well, because it’s fun, okay! But, it is early. Jesus man, let me be for once! So, yes, it’s early and a lot can change in the five years between today and next season, but it’s a good idea to develop your thoughts on where you see a player’s production now, so when changes occur you have a bit of a baseline to gauge what difference the change makes in their production.  Or something that sounds more profound than that.  I can tell you this top 10 didn’t just come to me in a dream, but if it would have I’m assuming I would be in my sponge-bob underwear and Jamaal Charles would be pointing and laughing.

So onto the show:

1. Chris Johnson: Is CJ a lock? No, no number 1 pick is a lock.  Adrian Peterson was a lock last season and ended up the #2 running back and 64 fantasy points behind CJ.  So who’s the next CJ? Hmm, how about CJ?  You can shuffle on back yonder for my post on Dos Mil and have a look see.  It says I think he’s ok. Projection: 1550/14 — 50/550/3

2. Adrian Peterson: With or without Favre (is that a U2 song?) Peterson will be near the top in fantasy goodness next season.  Favre opened up the receiving game for AP; 43 grabs and 436 yards.  And even if Favre returns to the farm, it hopefully opened some Viking eyes (I just hope they don’t rise from the grave and plunder our women and goods).  Purple Jesus needs to wait on his blockers and not try to be a martyr.  His raw talent is still at its peak and he will continue to rack up elite numbers. Projection: 1400/17 — 40/375/2

3. Maurice Jones-Drew: I was happy to have drafted MJD last season, but he was held back by David Garrard and the rest of his suckfest teammates. His skill set is just too good, but his team sometimes make it difficult for him.  Look at Steven Jackson (but not too intently, he may punch you).  SJax is easily a top tier running back, but his team made him a 2nd or 3rd tier back depending on how many tiers you want to shove in there. But the Jags weren’t as bad as the Rams, and their GM says he will be the focal point of the offense next season, duh.  As an aside, never draft MGD.  It’s gross. Projection: 1250/14 — 55/500/2

4. Ray Rice: His running style has been compared to Emmit Smith, his balance to Barry Sanders, his power to MJD, and his receiving skills to a running back who can catch the ball a lot.  He gets a ton of work in open space by catching a shizz-load of passes, which will keep him from getting squared up on as much as some backs.  Joe Flacco should improve, Derrick Mason should return and the Ravens should go after another receiver, possibly Brandon Marshall or Anquan Boldin.  Rice would benefit health-wise and touchdown-wise with a better passing game. Projection: 1300/10 — 70/675/2

5. Frank Gore: This starts a new tier.  I like to call this tier, “a little upside and please don’t get hurt side.” Or something that makes more sense.  Gore, if he could stay on the field all 16 games, could be a beast.  That’s a large if, but even with 13 games, Gore was still the 6th best fantasy running back last season.  His touchdown numbers are what got him back into the top range and I believe with the 49ers improving as a team those TD numbers should stay in the double digits.  The emergence of Vernon Davis and the soon to emerge Michael Crabtree will help keep Gore from getting gored and also give him some easy touchdowns. Projection: 1275/11 — 55/450/2

6. Michael Turner: With so many backs putting up big numbers through the air and the ground it’s hard to go crazy over Turner who tends to stick to the ground, but he does what he does very well.  He is a touchdown machine. He had 10 games in which he had more than 1 carry and had 10 touch downs.  I can’t say I’m not a little gun shy about injuries (well, I can, but I won’t), but his production last year while healthy didn’t drop and his injury shouldn’t be a long term issue.  I like the Falcons to rebound this season with a healthier crew and put up healthy fantasy awesomeness. Projection: 1350/15 — 8/60/0

7. Andre Johnson: I’m not much of a 1st round wide receiver type (that’s on my match.com profile), but AJ is my exception.  Of course in ppr he is a amazing, but right now you will be hard pressed to find a better receiver in a better position.  Yes, Larry Fitzgerald is right up there with him, but he has Matt Leinart throwing to him now.  Calvin Johnson could easily be there if he was on a team that wasn’t as bad as, well, the Lions.  Randy Moss has lost Wes Welker for a bit and is rapidly aging and is a “slouch” as Darrelle Revis likes to say.  There are other receivers that are in the picture as well, but none with the overall abilities AJ has.  He’s had back to back big years and Matt Schaub put together a healthy season and looks like he’ll keep improving.  Look for more of the same. Projection: 100/1450/10

8. Steven Jackson: At this point there is no reason to think Jackson is going to be in a better situation than he was last season, when he finished as the 10th best fantasy running back, but 2nd only to Chris Johnson in rushing yards.  If Bulger, Boller, or Null are anywhere near the starting quarterback position he will have a hard time getting into the end zone.  Something could happen in the offseason, like Vick or Favre going to St. Louis, but nothing is imminent at this time.  You can’t keep him from getting his yards, but you can keep his team from moving the ball consistently and if you sneak some cheese into their diet you might be able to keep them from moving their bowels consistently; I think that’s where Favre comes in. Projection: 1325/7 — 45/350/1

9. Shonn Greene: With Tom Jones out of the picture there is nothing holding Greene back from becoming a stud fantasy running back.  With the Jets o-line and Ryan’s run first, second and third philosophy, our projections are actually on the low side.  It would be hard to take Greene over SJax or Gore because they have proven they can put the numbers up, but I could be talked into it.  Projection: 1275/12 — 200/0

10. Jamaal Charles: We love ourselves some JC here at Razzball, but Razz-love can only boost a player up for so long.  He does have to do some work on his own.  Charles only had 8 games with double digit carries last season and only 4 of those were 20+, but he still finished as the 12th best fantasy running back.  He had some easy matchups, but also ran well against tougher defenses.  I’ve heard some concern over the Patriots staff pillaging the Chiefs and implementing their, start 6-7 running backs and see what happens approach, but Charlie Weis helped Corey Dillon to 1600 yards rushing in 2004 so he knows how to use a good back.  Charles has shown too much explosiveness to be put into a corner and the Chiefs have nobody to take big chunks of carries away from him. Projection: 1175/7 — 60/475/2

You can check out the top 10 quarterbacks for 2009 if you missed them. We now move ahead into the top 10 running backs.  As we look back at the backs we can easily see how hard it is to pick a top 10 back consistently from year to year.  They are more likely to get injured than quarterbacks (especially when you get flagged for disturbing them), they are more easily replaced, a couple fumbles can get them benched, coaches will ride the “hot hand” (which is as gross as it sounds), rookies may or may not show up, and, well, they can just suck. So why pick one first when you can get an almost kinda sorda guaranteed quarterback instead?  Well, I’ll let you consternate on that while we look at some running backs who led a lot of teams to fantasy glory.

1. Chris Johnson: It’s not like CJ fell out of the sky.  Everyone knew he had the skills.  Even lowly old me wrote, “One of the many rookie running backs to have big fantasy seasons last year, Johnson is explosive and can knock off an 80 yard TD at anytime.” And that’s lowly old me quoting a lowly old younger me. He ended up with quite a few of those 80 yard TD’s and broke some records along the way to 2,000 yards. He will be the #1 pick next year and I think he’ll deserve it. Preseason Rank #6, 2009 Projections:  1375/12 — 400/3,  Final Numbers:  2,006/14 — 503/2

2. Adrian Peterson: The consensus number one may not have lived up to expectations, but he still was a fantasy stud. His touchdown and receiving production went up which helped offset his pitiful rushing yardage.  I mean come on! 1,389 yards is downright Julius Jones-esque. His receptions more than doubled which bodes well for his future in this here league.  He also stayed healthy which some were worried about.  Unlike Kubiak, Major Dad doesn’t bench players for fumbling so I see no reason to worry about his dropsies. Preseason Rank #1, 2009 Projections:  1775/17 — 250/2,  Final Numbers:  1,389/18 — 436/0

3. Marice Jones-Drew: David Garrard was like a drunken carny slowing and speeding up the roller coaster that was MJD’s season, but overall MJD was the stud we thought he would be.  He will continue his ability to put the ball over the goal line and he didn’t have any trouble standing up to the beating given to him by the full time job.  Preseason Rank #2, 2009 Projections:  1250/15 — 575/5,  Final Numbers:  1391/15 — 374/1

4. Ray Rice: He shattered even the most optimistic of expectations and it came after a huge start by Willis McGahee.  He was a ppr monster devouring 78 receptions.  He saw a lot of red zone work, but he still had to compete with McGahee all year for touchdowns.   There is a chance Willis will move on to greener starting pastures in the offseason and if that happens, you’ll see Rice getting a lot of top 3 buzz. Preseason Rank #23, 2009 Projections 900/6 — 300/1,  Final Numbers:  1339/7 — 702/1

5. Thomas Jones: My biggest mistake of the year was undervaluing Jones. I had a tingly feeling in my nether regions that Leon Washington would split carries and outshine him.  I was wrong.  I was horribly wrong. Even if Washington hadn’t snapped in two, Jones still would have been the man. Even after being so gigantically wrong I will probably rank him low for the 2010 season once again.  Shonn Greene has looked good toward the end of the season and the lifespan of a NFL running back is short. Preseason Rank #27, 2009 Projections 900/7 — 100/1,  Final Numbers:  1402/14 — 58/0

6. Frank Gore: Gore was injured for three weeks, endured the Alex Smith “Air” show and still ended up studlying up studville with his studness.  He can’t seem to get all the way back to his 2006 form and gets nicked up a bit, but as long as he can continue getting 13+ games and 40+ receptions he’ll continue to put numbers up and down, and sideways, etc… Preseason Rank #10, 2009 Projections 1225/9 — 400/2,  Final Numbers:  1120/10 — 406/3

7. Ryan Grant: Mr. Grant showed me something this year.  No, don’t be gross.  He regressed in ‘08 and I felt that was going to be a trend, but he only got stronger as the season went on this season. In the last 4 games he tallied 6 touchdowns.  There’s no reason to think the Pack won’t move the ball easily next season.  Grant will once again be selfish and not share his carries with anyone, and that isn’t easy to find in this here NFL.  Preseason Rank #17, 2009 Projections 1125/7, 250/0,  Final Numbers:  1253/11 — 197/0

7. Ricky Williams: Even before Ronnie Brown’s foot injury Ricky was putting up useful numbers. He was one of three RB’s in the last 25 years to run for over 1,000 yards at the age of 32.  Brett Favre is 40 years old!  RB’s need to get their stats and their money quick!  Ricky was out of the league and probably saved his body some wear and tear and I truly believe yoga helped him stay flexible, but he was wearing down toward the end of the season.  Ronnie Brown will be a risky pick with yet another injury, but I think Ricky needs him or he could break down pretty quickly next season. Preseason Rank DNR,  Final Numbers:  1121/11 — 264/2

9. Joseph Addai: Wow, it really is amazing how much TD’s boost fantasy numbers.  Wait, not amazing, just craptastic when it comes from a not so great player like Addai.  With Manning at the helm there is no way a Colt’s running back should average under 4 yards a carry.  In the last 2 years Addai has averaged 3.5 and 3.8. I believed Donald Brown would eventually take away a lot of Addai’s work and at points he was, but then he got brokened.  And I was sad.  Brown didn’t set the league on fire when he did play, but if he can stay healthy there is no way Addai gets 13 touchdown’s next year.  Preseason Rank #28, 2009 Projections 830/5, 225/2,  Final Numbers:  828/10 — 336/3

10. Steven Jackson: SJax’s tale is one woe and heroism wrapped in a 6′2, 238 pound beast of a man.  He was by far the only offensive weapon on his sorry excuse for a NFL team and saw 23 man fronts, moats, spikes, etc… He didn’t get into the endzone until week 8 and only totaled 4 TD’s all season.  It’s depressing that Joseph Addai had more fantasy points than SJax, but it’s a fact Jax. Skill doesn’t always win and this is a good lesson for all you young whipper long snapper fantasy footballers.   Preseason Rank #5, 2009 Projections 1325/13, 550/3,  Final Numbers:  1416/4 — 322/0

1 pm Games

San Francisco @ St. Louis

He should have a field day against the lowly Rams. Look for him to continue his productive season  and help you bring home the hardware.

SF: Gore +4

Steven Jackson has been missing practice again this week. This is not good news considering he was inactive for last Sunday’s game. SJax has a herniated disk and the Rams have nothing to play for. If he’s active on Sunday play him unless you have better options. Neither Darby nor Gado is worth playing if Jackson’s inactive unless you’re in an uber deep league.

STL: Jackson -2

New England @ Houston

This game pits two of the most hated coaches in fantasy football against one another. Bill Belichick pulled Maroney after he fumbled and I think some other coach did that a few times this year as well. One would assume that Sammy Morris will carry the load against the Texans defense but it’s hard to tell since they could possibly rest starters. I definitely wouldn’t start Maroney and you’d have to trick me into playing Morris.

NE: Morris -1, Maroney -3

Arian Foster got a lot of work last Sunday and had a really productive outing. He’s worth a flex play but keep in mind there’s inherit risk involved when it comes to predicting what Gary Kubiak will do.

HOU: Foster -1

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

Don’t expect Michael Turner to play. Jason Snelling becomes a decent option. He split the work with Jerious Norwood last Sunday against the Bills horrible rush defense. His line was 15 carries for 68 yards which is respectable but given the competition should’ve been better. You have to love the matchup here but I’d be willing to start another running back with a solitary grasp on the touches. Don’t even consider starting Jerious Norwood.

ATL: Snelling +3

Ward left Sunday’s game and he might miss this week’s. Cadillac has been the main man in Tampa all season anyway but if Ward turns out to be inactive he becomes a more enthusiastic start.

TB: Williams +2

New Orleans @ Carolina

Pierre Thomas won’t play on Sunday against Carolina and Drew Brees is now the third string QB which means he won’t play either. I would stay far away from Bush or Bell and maybe play Hamilton if you’re feeling sneaky and are ready for anything.

NO: Bush -5,  Bell -5, Hamilton 0

Friday made it three straight practices that DeAngelo Williams had missed. I will be very surprised if he plays this week. If you own Jonathan Stewart that’s great news for you; he is a very, very solid RB #2, possibly a #1 for a lot of owners.

CAR: Stewart +2

Pittsburgh @ Miami

Rashard Mendenhall’s just your basic stud running back without any competition. Put him in your lineup and enjoy.

PIT: Mendenhall +1

Ricky Williams is questionable but should play with a limited role. Lex Hilliard will see an increase in touches. So Ricky Williams isn’t guaranteed to get enough touches for us to be happy, but he’ll get just enough for Lex Hilliard to be useless. Add to that they’re facing the top ranked Pittsburgh defense and that should be enough.

MIA: Williams -3, Hilliard +2

Jacksonville @ Cleveland

Play Maurice Jones-Drew. I can’t make it any more complicated than that.

JAC: Jones-Drew +3

It’s Razzball’s favorite family darling (well, other than Jamaal Charles). You’ve come this far, haven’t you? May as well roll with this stud. The Jaguars passing defense is atrocious so even if Harrison isn’t very successful on the ground he should be a threat in the passing game.

CLE: Harrison +2

New York Giants @ Minnesota

Brandon Jacobs was placed on IR which makes Ahmad Bradshaw the featured back for the final game of the season. Unfortunately he’s going up against a fairly tough defense. I can see putting him in your lineup, but just keep in mind that there’s not a ton of upside on the yardage.

Giants: Bradshaw -1

The Vikings could still be the #2 seed in the NFC if they win on Sunday. That’s good news for Peterson owners because you know they’ll use him until and unless they build up a huge lead late in the game.

Vikings: Peterson 0

Indianapolis @ Buffalo

The Colts whole team is pretty useless. Joseph Addai will play very little, if at all. One would assume that Donald Brown will get more work than usual but I would stay away from this situation entirely.

Colts: Addai -5

Fred Jackson should be in for a great day. The Colts will likely rest many of their starters on the D line. I would confidently play him as a #2 RB in your lineup. Marshawn Lynch has to stay on the bench.

Bills: Jackson +2

Chicago @ Detroit

Matt Forte may not be that mediocre in this game. In fact he should be downright studly. The Lions defense is completely useless. The Bears offense has been extremely inconsistent (yet explosive, at times). You have to think they’ll put up big digits in this matchup.

Bears: Forte +4

Maurice Morris has reaped rewards for anyone cagey enough to stash him earlier in the year. There are a lot of really nice starts for RB’s in the NFL this week. The big advantage Morris has is that he will get most all the touches in Detroit. On top of that the Bears defense is nothing special.

Lions: Morris +1

4 pm Games

Washington @ San Diego

Quinton Ganther’s touches haven’t gotten cut into since he’s taken over as the feature back. Last Sunday he disappointed after two great games in a row for fantasy owners. The Chargers defense isn’t particularly stout against the run so I don’t see them shutting him down. Ganther should be a solid flex play in most leagues.

Redskins: Ganther +1

LaDanian Tomlinson is a must sit this week. The Chargers don’t really have anything to play for so he might start but don’t expect him to stay in for the whole game. Darren Sproles might see a lot more work but they could diminish his role and rest him as well. It would be wise to avoid this situation entirely in fantasy for week 17.

Chargers: Tomlinson (don’t play him), Sproles -2

Tennessee @ Seattle

The Titans have openly admitted that they’re all about helping Chris Johnson reach his milestones in rushing and all purpose yardage. This will be an interesting side note to pay attention to on Sunday. Expect him to end his season with a monster outing.

Titans: Johnson +4

Here is another situation that I would avoid completely in Fantasy this week. Jones didn’t look like he would go, but he practiced fully and will go and make Forsett useless.  Hopefully something happens in the offseason and he gets the chance to be the #1 option in Seattle as he clearly deserves to be.

Seahawks: Jones -3, Forsett -2

Baltimore @ Oakland

The Ravens are fighting for a spot in the playoffs so expect them to come out firing in this contest. The Raiders defense is nothing special so this should be another week for Ray rice to go off. Willis McGahee has no value at this point.

Ravens: Rice +3

Justin Fargas is doubtful for Sunday’s game. That’s good news for McFadden and Bush owners. Well, maybe they’re not that relevant after all. I can definitely see sneaking McFadden in there in deep PPR leagues and the same for Bush in non-PPR but I wouldn’t be that excited about it.

Raiders: McFadden +1, Bush +1

Philadelphia @ Dallas

Brian Westbrook returned and played well in limited work last Sunday. Considering the magnitude of this game I expect him to have a similar, if not increased, role in the offense. LeSean McCoy will certainly still get 15+ touches but he’s no longer an enthusiastic start for you. I wouldn’t play Westbrook and I would play McCoy if I didn’t have players with more assured roles in their offenses.

Eagles: McCoy -3, Westbrook -2

Speaking of situations I’d rather avoid…. Marion Barber is very tempting because when the Cowboys get around the goal line (which they often do) Barber gets most all the rushing opportunities. Unfortunately Roy Williams complaining has gotten him a lot of looks there also, cutting in to Barber’s TD production. I can see playing Barber this week but I wouldn’t do it unless I had to. Jones and Choice don’t deserve to be in your lineup.

Cowboys: Barber -1

Kansas City @ Denver

After Jamaal Charles gets done saving children from a burning building and curing cancer you should be able to lock him in for 150 total yards and a touchdown with upside. Start him!!!!!

Chiefs: Charles +2

Knowshon Moreno might finally be a stud for fantasy owners (it’s about time). Regardless of his struggles as of late I enthusiastically endorse him for week 17 against the lowly Chiefs defense. Yes, I know they have Mike Vrabel but it’s the 2010 version. You can call me all sorts of bad names if I’m wrong.

Broncos: Moreno +4, Buckhalter +2

Green Bay @ Arizona

Ryan Grant should see a reduced role this week.  Brandon Jackson has a good chance for a lot of work, but a lot depends on if the Cardinals are going all out.  I’d be wary.

Packers: Grant -4, Jackson 0

This game comes down to what happens in the Vikings/Giants game.  If you know the Giants are going to win before the Cardinals game starts then throw Beanie in there, but make sure you have another RB going at 4 pm that you can substitute in.

Cardinals: Wells -1, Hightower -3

8 pm Game

Cincinnati @ NY Jets

It doesn’t look good for the Bengals to go all out this game.  I wouldn’t start any, especially against a good defense with something to play for.

Bengals: Benson -3, Johnson -3

Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene get the best matchup in the world for week 17 but thankfully the Bengals will probably be resting their starters.  Jones is going to see Greene take a chunk out of his carries from here on out, but you still have to start him.

Jets: Jones +1, Green 0