Fantasy Football Advice

Last week I included a little “What to Watch” question with each game. I started to do the same this week, then I realized that I would mostly be watching the same thing in each game — will the team that had a first round bye week exhibit any signs of rust? Especially the passing games that rely on timing and game experience — will the QB’s be throwing behind crossing routes and overthrowing deep posts?

Saturday 4:30 EST

Arizona @ New Orleans

What’s left to say about Kurt Warner? He’ll occasionally take too many risks against a good pass defense, but then we thought Green Bay was a good pass defense, and he shredded them. Boldin is more likely to play this week, but his presence may actually hurt the available fantasy value here — Breaston and Doucet excelled in Boldin’s absence, but if he plays a significant portion of the game, the looks will be spread out more. Fitzgerald remains a top option. Other than Darren Sharper’s ball-hawking skills, the Saints’ secondary hasn’t been great in the last half of the season, so expect another shootout.

ARI: Warner +1, Fitzgerald +1, Boldin -1, Breaston -1 (+1 if Boldin sits), Doucet 0

The question here, of course, is the same question that applies to any of the teams that enjoyed a Round 1 bye. How rusty will Drew Brees and the Saints’ offense be after taking a full 2 weeks off? The Cardinals defense certainly didn’t shut Aaron Rodgers down, so at least the Saints don’t have a tough matchup. And, those 2 weeks should be enough for players to recover from most minor injuries. Coming in rested and healthy could be a factor against a team that played an overtime game last week.

NO: Brees +1, Colston +1, Meachem +1, Henderson 0, Shockey 0

Saturday 8:15 EST

Baltimore @ Indianapolis

Yeesh. When a team is so committed to (and successful at) running the ball, it makes it hard to rely on their passing game. I think the Colts defense is in much better shape than the Patriots were last week, so I think Flacco will have to pass more than 10 times, but still…it’s clear that the Ravens feel no compulsion to throw any more than they absolutely have to. Heap continues to have issues with his back, so I’d avoid him.

BAL: Flacco -2, Mason -2, Heap -2

Tough call here — the Ravens have been putting up excellent defensive numbers for the last half of the season, and repeatedly forced Brady to throw underneath for limited yardage. I don’t expect them to keep Manning in check like that, but it’s at best an average matchup for the Colts, and probably a mild downgrade is more realistic. My feeling is that Ed Reed will spend more time helping cover Wayne and Garcon and that there may be room for Dallas Clark to rack up some yardage.

IND: Manning -1, Wayne -1, Clark 0, Garcon 0, Collie 0

Sunday 1:00 EST

Dallas @ Minnesota

Romo is rolling right now, and unless Jared Allen and the Vikings line can put a lot more pressure on him than the Eagles did, I expect continued success. I was surprised that Witten wasn’t more involved last week. Miles Austin remains the clear #1 option. Roy Williams was decent but he’s too risky to rely on. Don’t forget that Crayton gets a little boost in return yardage leagues.

DAL: Romo +1, Austin +1, Williams 0, Crayton 0, Witten +1

Hard to argue against what the Vikings did in Week 17, but I’ll try — the Giants were getting worse each week and gave up on that game before it even started, and the Dallas defense has been steadily improving. We know that when Favre is unhurried, he can zing it with the best of them. I’m a believer in the Cowboy’s D-line, though, and I expect at least one or two mistakes from Favre. Slight downgrade.

MIN: Favre -1, Rice 0, Berrian -1, Harvin -1, Shiancoe 0

Sunday 4:40 EST

New York Jets @ San Diego

Cotchery isn’t a bad play in PPR formats, but apart from him, there isn’t much here. There’s basically 2 outcomes for Sanchez right now — failure (which looks like 100 yards and 2 or 3 int’s), or success (which looks like 160 yards with 1 TD and no picks). The difference between those 2 matters a lots to the Jets, but the upside is so limited for fantasy purposes that it’s better just staying away. Keller is a long-shot TE option just for his big play ability as evidenced last week, but don’t be surprised at a 2 catch, 28 yard week.

NYJ: Sanchez -1, Cotchery 0, Edwards -1, Keller 0

The unfortunate situation here is that V-Jax may just get erased by Revis. I don’t see any situation that doesn’t involve a serious cut in his production. Fortunately, Rivers still has Gates (who presents a huge matchup problem for the Jets), as well as Floyd, Naanee, Tomlinson, and Sproles. A mild downgrade just for losing V-Jax as a serious weapon, but don’t feel too bad about it.

SD: Rivers -1, Jackson -2, Gates +2, Floyd +1

Before we look at the games, I want to say thanks to Doc for stepping in for 3 weeks while I closed and moved into my first house. Like Pedro Cerrano, you’re in good hands with Doc. Regular season fantasy leagues are over, but there’s a lot of fantasy playoff leagues as well, and if you haven’t joined one yet, be sure to check out our Sporting News playoff league and/or our playoff challenge at NFL.com.

For these playoff games, I’m adding a short “What To Watch” section. I often pick a particular position matchup or aspect of the game that I intend to focus on, to break the habit of just watching the ball on every play. Sometimes the camerawork dictates how successful this endeavor is, but I’ve found it’s a good way to start noticing other parts of the game.

Saturday 4:30 EST

New York Jets @ Cincinnati

Great start to the passing matchups…the Jets and Bengals combined for 63 yards passing last week. Even if you don’t count the sack yardage against the total, it doesn’t crack 100 yards between the two teams. While I expect improved totals from both teams, it’s hard to feel good about this matchup. The Jets won’t be able to run 57 times like last week, so while I can’t recommend Sanchez, there’s at least an opportunity for Cotchery to get some looks. Dustin Keller is affected more by Sanchez’s inconsistent play than the opposing defense.

NYJ: Sanchez -2, Cotchery -1, Edwards -2, Keller -1 (more…)

We continue our playoff rankings with wide receivers, tight ends, defenses, and kickers.  We went over quarterbacks and running backs yesterday.  So if you slap this post together with that one you have a rankings sandwich that will satiate your playoff hunger.

Wide receivers are a crapshoot already, but add a receivers inherent sketchiness to the playoffs one and done-ness, and you have a recipe for some poor choices.  And that tastes not nearly as good as a rankings sandwich.

Wide Receivers:

1. Reggie Wayne: This is a bit of a shaky number one since there is always a chance that Peyton could use Reggie as a decoy, but I feel like he is the safest bet for overall production.

2. Randy Moss: His talent should put him at #1, but I worry about the Welker effect.  It’s similar to the Revis effect, but hurts Moss every game, not just when they play the Jets. You could argue that Moss will see more passes his way, but he should have some trouble shedding double coverage without Welker around.  He will get his no matter what, but will they get past Baltimore? If you think so he’s easily worth a top pick.

3. Miles Austin: I almost put him at number one, but he has a chance to be one and done.  Romo knows that trying to placate Roy Williams doesn’t win games and that Miles Austin is the real deal. (more…)

Editors note: I’d like to thank Jen for joining the Razzball team.  We might have to take the pinball machine out of the women’s bathroom at Razzball headquarters! Follow her insightful twitter comments here.

QB: START: Joe Flacco (v. DET): I know, he’s been an overall fantasy disappointment the last few weeks, especially given his great start to the season. His three interceptions in primetime Monday night were atrocious, along with penalties galore, made for an ugly performance. But the Ravens, especially Flacco, have the chance to redeem themselves this week with a matchup against a weak Detroit defense. With Flacco most likely eager to right all his wrongs from Monday night, and with the Ravens trying to stay in playoff contention, expect him to have a much better showing this week against the Lions.

Other starts: Ben Roethlisberger (@CLE), Vince Young (@StL), Kurt Warner (v. SF), Philip Rivers (@DAL), Tony Romo (v.SD), David Garrard (v.MIA), Chad Henne (@JAX)

SIT: Jay Cutler (v. GB): This is probably obvious, but I would like to essentially nip in the bud anyone’s idea of possibly thinking about starting him after not throwing picks last week. Chances are, you have a better option available for picking up. Keep in mind that last week, Cutler played the lowly Rams, and the overall game plan was very cautious, mostly looking to Forte and the run in the red zone (because we know Jay Cutler is the King of the Red Zone Interception). Against a Green Bay defense who played quite well against Baltimore and held the running game in check and pulled down three picks, an unreliable Cutler is not a smart start.

SIT: Whoever is the QB on Sunday for the Falcons (most likely Matt Ryan): Plainly and simply, Sunday will not be a great situation for whichever quarterback is under center. If it is Matt Ryan, there are reports out saying that his turf toe is not completely healed, and that he will probably not be playing at his best if and when going against the Saints. With the Saints narrowly avoiding devastating embarrassment last week against the Redskins, I’m sure they will not want to sweat another one out like that again this week. Already a borderline start just simply based on injury, with Roddy White also not at 100%, and a once-strong running game down the tubes, the Saints look that much closer to the perfect season. And, if Chris Redman starts, there’s not much I need to write here that should deter you from starting him. Quite frankly,  the thought should have never crossed your mind. Overall, the QB position (whoever has it) this week for the Falcons should be on your bench.

Other sits: Matt Moore (@NE), Kyle Orton (@IND)

RB: START: Kevin Smith (@BAL): While Kevin Smith is generally productive every week, this looks like it could be a particularly productive week for him. Although Baltimore does have a stout defense, they have been known to give up a few rushing yards here and there. Plus, with Matthew Stafford sitting this one out, the more cautious approach with Culpepper at QB would be to hand off to Smith as much as possible.

START: Fred Jackson (@KC): Since FJax has officially moved ahead of Marshawn Lynch on the Buffalo depth chart, he is primed to have a great game for two reasons: 1)Kansas City’s defense, which is ranked 31st in the league and 2) a poor performance against the Jets last week, which should motivate him to bring his A game to keep his new starting spot. This game in general should be very heavy on the run, with both teams notorious for having porous rushing defenses and relatively unproven quarterbacks. So, in that case, also start Jamaal Charles (who is not on the KC injury report).

START: LaDainian Tomlinson (@DAL): Last week, the Cowboys faced a Giants’ running game that was depleted with injuries and had been struggling for weeks. Brandon Jacobs, who has been a disappointment to fantasy owners this season, caught and ran for the longest reception of his career, scored 2 TDs, and had many productive runs. Ahmad Bradshaw, who has two sprained ankles and cracked bones in his feet, even managed to grab some first downs against a Cowboys defense that typically falls short in the twelfth month of the year. That all being said, I think LT is primed for a good week this week.

Other starts: Chris Johnson (duh! @StL) , Thomas Jones (@TB),  Laurence Maroney (v.CAR), Maurice-Jones Drew (v. MIA), Quinton Ganther (@OAK)

SIT: Brandon Jacobs (v.PHI): I know I just praised his Week 13 performance, but it was just that; in Week 13. Do not expect that explosive of a performance again against Philadelphia. While chances are he will get a decent amount of carries, what he will do with them will probably not be much. Last time the Giants played the Eagles was a total disaster, and Kevin Gilbride, Giants’ offensive coordinator, rarely calls appropriate plays for what Jacobs is good at and has been calling too many passing plays. Overall, it will probably be a mediocre performance for Jacobs at best on Sunday night.

Other sits: Cedric Benson (@MIN), Julius Jones (v.HOU), Cadillac Williams/Derrick Ward (v.NYJ)

WR: START: DeSean Jackson (@NYG): Though this is obvious, some may be concerned with Jackson’s possible post-concussion symptoms. He has assured that he is fine and playing on Sunday (although keep an eye for any change just to be safe). While generally, the Giants do cover him with the very capable Corey Webster, the rest of the Giants secondary probably will not do as good a job covering him, especially with safety C.C. Brown occasionally having to take on that task. Last time the Giants played the Eagles, C.C. Brown was basically responsible for the blown coverage on every receiving touchdown, and later publicly blamed himself for it. Plus, if the Giants defend against the run as well as they did against the Cowboys last week, chances are McNabb will have to pass. So, have no worries about starting DJax.

START: Santonio Holmes (@CLE): With Hines Ward likely out, and no defenders on the secondary for Cleveland to speak of, Santonio stands to get targeted quite a bit Thursday night. He should, by default (if he’s not already) become the Steelers’ #1 WR. This also increases the value of Mike Wallace, particularly as a WR3 in deep leagues or as a flex.

START: Pierre Garcon (v.DEN): Chances are, Champ Bailey will have his work cut out for him with Reggie Wayne. With Garcon being targeted so frequently last week against the Titans, look for that again. Austin Collie also becomes a viable starter as well.

Other starts: Jeremy Maclin (@NYG), Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin (v.SF), Robert Meacham/Marques Colston (@ATL), Chris Chambers (@BUF), Terrell Owens (v. KC),

SIT: The Seahawks WRs (Burleson and Houshmanzadeh): With Matt Hasselbeck’s value on the decline, and the emergence of Justin Forsett in the running game, the Seattle receivers have not been having great weeks as of late. The Texans have also emerged as a somewhat strong defense, and are in in the Top 15 as far as guarding fantasy WRs as well as pass rush. Therefore, don’t expect big days from Nate Burleson or T.J. Houshmanzadeh.

SIT: Antonio Bryant (v. NYJ): Two words: Darrelle Revis.

Other sits: Devin Hester/Earl Bennett (v. GB),  Santana Moss (@OAK)

TE: START: Todd Heap: With majority of Joe Flacco’s targets going toward Heap, combined with the amount of drops and offensive pass interference calls from some of his other WRs, the Ravens will probably send the ball Heap’s way again against the Lions.

Other TE starts: Vernon Davis (@ARI), Brent Celek (@NYG), Kellen Winslow (v.NYJ)

SIT: Greg Olsen (v.GB): I think that you probably realize that by now, I’m very down on the Bears. With Cutler and Forte both struggling, don’t expect much to go on, especially against Green Bay with the Packers wanting a wild card spot and playing a division rival. Olson has been rendered ineffective in many a game this season despite being Cutler’s favorite target. Expect this week to be no different.

DEF: START: NYJ (@TB): With Josh Freeman’s interception filled game last week, expect a strong Jets’ secondary to dismantle Freeman and Tampa Bay.

START: TEN (@StL): Again, probably does not require much of an explanation. Kyle Boller is awful, and with the re-emergence of the Titans in general and the return of their cornerbacks, expect low scoring from the Rams and the opportunity for interceptions.

SIT: SD (@DAL): Tony Romo had a strong game against the Giants last week, put up a lot of points, but still the Cowboys lost. Expect a strong showing from Romo again and expect that this game will probably be a shootout.

Since trading has ended we have decided to cut our Buy/Sell list. We will resume it at the beginning of the 2010 season.  Be sure to stay tuned to the “Comments” section below because we continually update injury status changes, etc. all the way up to game time. And as always we answer your start/sit quandaries.

Matchup Savers

Quarterback:

Mark Bulger – The Rams could get completely blown out in this contest. This should be a classic case of junk time production from Bulger.

Matthew Stafford – This could be a big week for this emerging quarterback. You know Calvin Johnson is anxious to have a productive outing after all the adversity he’s been through this year; it’d be nice to see him finish strong.

Josh Freeman – You have to imagine the Bucs are going to get blown out in this game. That could lead to some big production for Freeman in Fantasy. The odds of him throwing interceptions are higher too but the yardage/touchdown possibilities should outweigh that. (more…)