Fantasy Football Advice

Predicting how long players will go in week 17 is starting to give me a twitch.  Listening to coaches and players talk about playing time is about as productive as watching Jersey Shore for moral guidance.

Here are some noteworthy happenings in the NFL:

Tom Brady: He says he will play the whole game, but Peyton Manning hinted at similar things last week and was yanked and not in the way he would prefer. The Vegas line still favors the Texans by 8 so I don’t think everybody is buying that they’ll play the whole game.  I believe they’ll play most of the game, but I just don’t feel 100% confident in that. If your backups are scrubtastic I’d go with Brady, Moss, and Welker without too many qualms.

DeAngelo Williams: He didn’t practice on Thursday and is looking less likely to go on Sunday.  The Daily Show should go prime time again, well, not prime time, but whatever you call Sunday afternoon time.

Brandon Marshall: All reports point to Marshall playing against the Chiefs, but you have to worry about the hammy acting up on him during the game. If he doesn’t practice today I would take some Xanax before starting him.

Hines Ward: He has a problem that can best be described by a Denny’s special called Moons Over My Hammy. Well, maybe not best described, but he has a hamstring problem and the Steelers are playing in Miami, so there’s that. I’m starting to feel better and better about throwing Mike Wallace out there.  I did notice that CBS took my 60 Minutes Mike Wallace comparison and ran with it.  I am the only one who ever noticed they had the same name!!!

Julius Jones: He didn’t practice once again on Thursday and there really is no need to throw him out there for the last game of the season. Right now it looks like Justin Forsett will get the start and should be a good flex play against the Titans and will be auditioning for 2010 and possibly Cats, meow.

Correll Buckhalter: He was injured early last week and left the game, but has practiced this week and gets a favorable matchup with the Chiefs who he and Knowshon Moreno ran over earlier in the season, oh and Jerome Harrison and some others as well.

Ricky Williams: He has been limited in practice and split work with Lex Hilliard. He will probably get the start against the Steelers, but Hilliard could see an increased role. This makes Ricky a bit risky and you don’t want any of that business.

Tony Gonzalez: He didn’t practice on Thursday and doesn’t look like he’ll go on Sunday. I like Matt Ryan this week, but without Gonzo you have to downgrade him a little.

Ahmad Bradshaw: He will sit out most of this week’s practice as usual and he gets a tough matchup with Minnesota, but he will also be the main back and worth a flex play.

Donald Brown: His heavy workload in relief of Joe Addai last week, coupled with his lack of yardage, should get him a goodly amount of carries so he can get back into a rhythm of sorts.  And as long as he gets starlight, sweet dreams and music, who could ask for anything more?

No this isn’t a chain letter or cheesy personality test that someone dumps on you on Facebook. Actually it sort of is the latter. There is a lot of psychology involved in Fantasy Football and the sooner we acknowledge it and start paying attention the better.

I admit this is a bit simplistic. However:

A) I was obsessed with the Ninja Turtles for about 6 years (still have the Technodrome & Sewer packed away)

B) Talking about personality types is useful.

Think about how other people perceive you; that matters infinitely more than what you’re actually like (even though it shouldn’t).  Most of us know the other people in our Fantasy League at least a little bit and have an idea of what they are like. I try to figure out everyone’s personality type and consider that most when I’m trying to put deals together. Putting trades together is a lot more art than science and perception matters more than reality. One player might scoff at a trade while another player might gladly accept the same trade and often it just comes down to his/her values and ideology about life. So here’s a fun way for us to start exploring this concept.

Michelangelo:

The “Party Dude.” This person is notorious for missing drafts, not checking their team, and not paying their league dues. Loves to pick dudes with “cool names” or outrageous personalities. Probably owns Chad Ochocinco, T.O., Favre, Cadillac Williams, Clinton Portis, Brandon Marshall and probably picked Crabtree in the 8^th round or something. Not a threat unless he gets outrageously lucky. It’s extremely easy to fleece him on trades. In fact he’d probably give you his three best players for a case of Beast Ice and a PBR Sweatshirt.

If you are Michelangelo: everyone in your league makes fun of you. But you’re too cool for Fantasy Football to begin with (probably only participate for the party at the end) so that shouldn’t matter.

Do this to the Michelangelo in your league: rip him off in uneven trades, hope they pass through your league without getting voted down. Other people will be doing it so if you don’t you’re going to be at a disadvantage. (more…)

While “the” Tony Gonzalez was quietly traded this offseason to be the new security blanket for Atlanta’s Matt Ryan, “The” Ohio State product, Tony Gonzalez, is gearing up for his third full season as a WR in the NFL. I think the “3rd year” breakout rule might be a bit dogmatic, but in Gonzalez’s case I believe it’s merited. At age 24 and blessed with exceptional hands, Gonzalez should become a prolific receiver for Peyton Manning and the Colts, a la Brandon Stokely whom Manning highly regarded. Last season Gonzalez showed marked improvement from his rookie season, and he proved to be a more than capable pass catcher by catching over 70% of balls thrown his way. The departure of Marvin Harrison should only increase his fantasy value, and with Reggie Wayne drawing the attention of defenses, Gonzalez is primed for a breakout season.

Look for Gonzalez to return top 25 WR value and be a solid #3 WR with #2 potential. The sure-handed WR product disappointed some owners last season, but that should play to the savvy owner’s advantage in 2009, as Gonzalez will likely be overlooked in some drafts. If you’re targeting players like Eddie Royal or Wes Welker, Gonzalez  should be another solid option if you miss out, and don’t be surprised if he matches their production this season.

Current ESPN ADP: 84.3 or Round 7.025

Current Fantasy Football Calculater ADP: 60.48 or Round 5.04

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere.  To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy football questions regarding their team.  We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway).  The 2009 Chiefs Fantasy Football Preview comes courtesy of Arrowhead Pride.

1) Now that the Herm Edwards era has come to a close, there were several big changes for the Chiefs this offseason. Maybe the biggest was the trade for former Tom Brady replacement and lifelong backup QB, Matt Cassel. Did Cassel prove he can be a productive QB in the NFL with last season’s performance, or was he product of the Belichick system? What type of season do you expect from Cassel as a Chief?

It remains to be seen whether Matt Cassel is a product of the New England system. One statistic that seems promising is his completion percentage. He completed over 63% of his passes while starting 15 games for the Patriots last season. I tend to think that if you can hit an open receiver in New England, you can hit one in Kansas City. And let’s not fool ourselves into thinking that the Belichick system was flawless last season. The Patriots offensive line gave up 11 more sacks than the Chiefs offensive line.

Obviously, Tony Gonzalez is gone which will certainly not help Cassel’s production. But with Todd Haley’s resume in the passing game, a guesstimation of his production would be somewhere around 3,000 yards, 18-20 touchdowns and 12-15 interceptions. He nearly had a 2:1 TD:INT ratio last season even though the first handful of games the coaching staff restricted him.

2) Wide receiver Dwayne Bowe emerged as significant fantasy threat last season, amassing over 1000 yards receiving and 7 touchdowns. How will his production in 2009 compare, was ‘08 just a taste of Bowe’s potential?

I expect Bowe to put up similar numbers to his first two seasons in the NFL. A lot of folks have made an issue over him being in the top five in the NFL in drops but rarely does a receiver amass 2,000 yards receiving in their first two seasons. Wide receiver has historically been a position that doesn’t produce immediate results but Bowe is bucking that trend.

Gonzalez is gone, which would affect Bowe in one of two ways: A) Give him more opportunities to catch the ball or B) draw the double teams to him causing his stats to drop.

He’s a big, strong wide receiver and has proven himself his first two seasons so another 1,000 yard, 6-8 touchdown season should be in his future.

3) Does Larry Johnson return to rushing dominance and fantasy stud in 2009?

Unlikely. Don’t get me wrong, if healthy and on the field (big if), LJ can still run the football with the best of them. But things like injury, which caused him to miss a chunk of games in 2007, and over-use (NFL record number of carries in 2006) usually don’t get better with age. He’ll be turning 30 in November, which is the magic age for running backs to drop off in terms of production.

There are so many variables with LJ to predict his numbers, but if he’s on the field all 16 games I suspect he’ll approach 1,000 yards and hit 8-10 touchdowns.

If you’re a LJ fantasy owner, please protect yourself with a solid back up if (and probably when) his production isn’t what you expect it to be.

4) With the departure of future Hall of Famer, Tony Gonzalez (to the Falcons), the Chiefs appear to have a major hole to fill on offense. What player(s) steps up to hopefully fill the void left by #88?

There won’t be another tight end like Gonzalez with the Chiefs (and probably the NFL). Brad Cottam will likely take his spot but with only 21 career catches while at the University of Tennessee, Cottam won’t treated as a wide receiver in fantasy leagues like Gonzalez was. He’s a blocking tight end who might get a few looks in the red zone because of his height (6′7″).

Bobby Engram was signed as the slot receiver in the offseason. When healthy, he’s still a reliable safety valve for Cassel.

If Mark Bradley, likely to be the Chiefs #2 wide receiver, can stay healthy (never has before) he could surprise some folks. In the games he appeared with the Chiefs last season, he put up some decent numbers. But his health has always been a problem and was even cut from the Bears, which is apparently “where wide receivers go to die.”

5) The Chiefs seem to have focused heavily on defense in the past few drafts, that being said are they any breakout candidates on the offensive side of the ball that fantasy owners should be aware of?

Like I mentioned above, Mark Bradley could be a fantasy break out option. With Gonzalez gone, someone out there is going to get an opportunity to catch some balls that previously weren’t there. Bradley’s health is a major, major factor though. He might be worth a flyer in the late rounds or a good bye-week filler.

Without Tony Gonzalez, this offense is completely different so until we actually see the Chiefs on the field it’s all a mystery.

To review…

Matt Cassel: 3,00 yards, 18-20 touchdowns, 12-15 interceptions

Larry Johnson: 800-1,000 yards, 8-10 TDs, 250 rec. yards

Dwayne Bowe: 80-90 receptions, 1,000 yards, 8-10 touchdowns

The 2009 offseason has had its share of big moves, but what do those moves mean to fantasy owners in 2009? Are we getting Randy Moss to Oakland, or Randy Moss to New England? While most marquee trades and free agent signings are hyped by team media personnel as an “excellent addition” or “a perfect fit”, they don’t always end up as successful transactions. Here we play Buy or Sell on the biggest moves of the 2009 fantasy football offseason:

Buy

T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Bengals to Seahawks) – Housh had nearly 1,000 yards receiving last season with the unproven and unimpressive Ryan Fitzpatrick as his QB. In Seattle, if Hasselback is healthy, Housh becomes the immediate #1 target for the more than capable Seahawks signal caller. 1,000+ yards and 6+ TDs should be the floor for T.J. “Who’s Your Mama”.

Tony Gonzalez (Chiefs to Falcons) - Future Hall of Famer, Tony Gonzalez, might be changing teams, but his consistent production probably won’t falter. Gonzalez should quickly become the security blanket for young gunslinger Matt Ryan, and in the excellently balanced Falcons offense, Gonzalez could develop into a TD machine for Ryan near the Goal Line.

Laverneus Coles (Jets to Bengals) – A healthy Carson Palmer could throw for 3,500 to 4,000 yards this season, expect Coles and OchoCinco to thrive if the Bengals can protect Palmer. Coles is sure handed and not afraid to go across the middle, much like the WR he was brought in to replace, Houshmandzadeh.

Sell

Jay Cutler (Broncos to Bears) – Much of Jay “Livebetes” Cutler’s success can be derived from the outstanding offensive line that protected him in Denver. In Chicago, the addition of Orlando Pace at Left Tackle won’t be enough to correct the Bears’ problems with protecting the QB. Cutler also goes from having a plethora of playmaking weapons to having a marginal corp of receiving talent. A regression from last season’s 4,000+ yard performance is likely.

Terrell Owens (Cowboys to Bills) – For the past 3 seasons, Romo to Owens was one of the most productive tandems in fantasy football. This season however, Terrible Owens finds a new team to disrupt, but without the on field success. Trent Edwards is a notable decline in talent and ability from Dallas’ Romo, and the Bills’ offense is definitely more run focused. Look for the other Bills WR, Lee Evans, to have better year than T.O. as defenses will key on 81.

Matt Cassel (Patriots to Chiefs) – Before last season Cassel was a career backup (college and pros), likely for a reason; just look at what the Chiefs gave up to acquire him: the aging Mike Vrabel and a 2nd round pick. To put the trade in perspective, Jay Cutler was traded shortly after for two 1st round picks, Kyle Orton, and a 3rd round pick. The talent level around Cassel has precipitously declined in KC and the organization as whole is reorganizing, don’t expect 2008 numbers from Cassel.

Hold

Brandon Marshall (Broncos to Unknown) – Recent news out of Denver is talented and troubled WR Brandon Marshall has requested a trade and rumors are flying about where he’ll land. Depending on where Marshall ends up his fantasy value will vary, but only moderately. On a team with a developed offense and above average QB (i.e. Cardinals), Marshall should flourish and return late 1st round, early 2nd round fantasy value. On an offensively challenged (Ravens) or developing squad Marshall should still return top 10 WR value. However, all value is dependent on Marshall staying out of trouble and avoiding suspension.

Buy scenarios (1,200 – 1,500 yds, 12+ TDs): Bears, Cardinals, Broncos, Giants.

Sell scenarios (1,000+ yds, 7+ TDs): Ravens, Browns, Jets.