Don't be shellfish...Tweet about this on TwitterShare on FacebookShare on Google+Share on Reddit

Here it is Ladies and Gents, the Ground Game Preview for Week 7. One thing I would like to reinforce about our “rating system,” which I have blatantly stolen from Mark, is that when we upgrade or downgrade a player we’re always doing so within the context of their value. Our goal is to give you the best possible tools to make decisions with.

Let’s recap how the system works here: start with your basic ranking of players, and then consider -1 and +1 ratings to move the player to the bottom or top of their current tier. A -2 and +2 rating bumps them into the tier below or above their normal position. A new addition from last week is the team’s ranking in rush defense (measured in prushing yards allowed per game) in parentheses.

1 PM games

Green Bay (16th) @ Cleveland (30th)

I have been down on Ryan Grant for some time but it’s tough not to love him in this game. The Packers offense should have their way with the Browns and light up the scoreboard. Even if he doesn’t rack up huge yards Grant should get some goal line opportunities. I’m not sure how many carries Brandon Jackson will get but he’s one of my top stashes right now.

Packers: Grant: +3, Jackson: +2

Now that Jamal Lewis is in there ruining everything I have no reason to get excited about Cleveland. Odds are they will fall behind in this game quickly and be forced to put it in the air. Jamal Lewis should be a start by force only. Unfortunately you can’t throw Jerome Harrison out there either but I still love his upside

Browns: Lewis: -2, Harrison: -1

San Diego (27th) @ Kansas City (25th)

The Chargers should have no problems moving the football and putting up points against the Chiefs. Tomlinson actually looked really good on Monday Night Football. I see Sproles as a serviceable flex start right now.

Chargers: Tomlinson +2, Sproles +2

Their defense has been a colossal disappointment this season. They did lose their stud nose tackle but still there’s no excuse for how bad they’ve been. Look for the Chiefs to try and pound the ground game to keep Philip Rivers and company off the field. Relative to value I love both Larry Johnson and Jamaal Charles in this one.

KC: Johnson +3, Charles +3

Indianapolis (14th) @ St. Louis (26th)

The Colts are the one team in the NFL that don’t seem to adjust their game plan all that much based on their opponent. Basically whatever you try to do, Peyton Manning will exploit you the other way. There’s no reason the Colts shouldn’t put up a lot of points against this team which is good for both Addai and Brown.

Colts: Addai +2, Brown +2

The only chance the Rams have of winning this game is by shortening it. Expect a heavy dose of Steven Jackson in this one. I see no reason why he won’t be able to put up respectable fantasy numbers. The nice thing about Jackson is even if they go to the passing game he stays in there and catches balls.

Rams: Jackson +2

Minnesota (9th) @ Pittsburgh (2nd)

This is going to be a great game. If anyone will be able to have success against Pittsburgh it’s going to be Adrian Peterson. This is a matchup you’re not looking forward to if you own him but there is no way you can sit him and respect yourself. Chester Taylor is a definite no-start.

MIN: Peterson: -3, Taylor: -5

The Steelers passing game is so dynamic right now that its forcing teams to game plan them differently. This is great news for Rashard Mendenhall. The Vikings aren’t a great matchup for him necessarily but I think he should have a decent game. I would be very hesitant about putting Parker or Mewelde Moore in there.

PIT: Mendenhall -1, Parker -3, Moore -3

New England (20th) @ Tampa Bay (31st)

The Patriots should treat this as a scrimmage, much like their game last week against the Titans. So far Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris have gotten injured, leaving Laurence Maroney as the only horse in the stable. He should rack up some yards again this week. Kevin Faulk is nothing more than a pass receiver (see- Keith Byars) and he never will be.

Patriots: Mauroney +5, Faulk +2

The Buccaneers can’t run the ball or pass it. The Patriots have given up some yards on the ground this season but I foresee them keying in on Cadillac Williams. There’s really nothing to like in this game about the Bucs backs. I’m done with Derrick Ward at this point, he’s dead to me.

Buccaneers: Williams -1, Ward -3

San Francisco (7th) @ Houston (24th)

Frank Gore is returning this week which makes Glen Coffee bench material. Gore is a must start here, especially against this soft defense. If you still own him now hopefully he has a few good games and you can get something for him in a trade. I think you’re crazy if you hold on to him the whole season.

49’ers: Gore +2, Coffee -3

The Texans offense is a lot of fun to watch. They will finish the season as one of the top scoring teams in the NFL. Steve Slaton was on my list of players who are due to break and he did this past Sunday. I view him as must-start in every format regardless of opponent. Ryan Moats at this point is just someone to hang on to unless Slaton gets hurt.

Texans: Slaton -1, Moats -3

4 PM games

Buffalo (32nd) @ Carolina (29th)

You have to love this matchup for the Bills rushing attack. The controversy all season has been what would happen once Marshawn Lynch came back from injury. Fred Jackson has taken over the kick and punt return duties as of last week so that means you can expect Lynch’s touches to increase more. I see Lynch as a must start for the week and Jackson as a flex start if you need someone.

Bills: Lynch +3, Jackson +1

Well the Bills have taken over the crown of “worst rushing defense in football” despite their victory against the Jets. DeAngelo Williams should be able to let loose and finally have a big game; he’s due.

Carolina: DeAngelo Williams +2, Stewart +2

New York Jets (21st) @ Oakland (28th)

The formula for beating the Raiders is pretty simple- run it down their throats. The Eagles decided instead to throw the football all over the field which was the reason they lost. Expect a heavy dose of Thomas Jones and Leon Washington with a little bit of Shonn Greene sprinkled in during 4th quarter junk time.

Jets: Jones +2, Washington +2, Greene +3

You actually own Raiders players? Must be you’re in a 20 team league. It is difficult for me to have anything positive to say about Justin Fargas or the rest of their “alleged” running game. One HUGE impact on the Jets was the announcement that they have lost Kris Jenkins for the season. Why is this so important? Because in the 3-4 scheme that they run the nose tackle is far and away the most important player. Kris Jenkins is one of the top nose tackles in the NFL and without him it’s difficult to predict how much their defense will regress. Listen I hate the Raiders as much as you do but I would probably start Justin Fargas this week and Michael Bush if you’re desperate.

Raiders: Fargas +1, Bush 0

Atlanta (23rd) @ Dallas (17th)

Michael Turner is on his way to being such a bust this season. He has been disappointing so far but I think he’ll ultimately be even worse. I am telling everyone to sell and him now while people still think he was worth a first round pick. Jerious Norwood has also been an enormous disappointment for me this year. For this game you have to start Turner but beyond that I wouldn’t even consider it in the deepest of leagues.

Falcons: Turner 0, Norwood -2, Snelling 0

A lot of people were drafting Tashard Choice in the later rounds and I thought it was such a reach at the time to give up anything for a #3 back. Barber and Jones just can’t get/stay healthy and Choice just keeps running strong. I love him in this game to give you a solid start against a mediocre defense.

Cowboys: Choice +2, Barber -1 (not sure what his health status will be)

Chicago (6th) @ Cincinnati (11th)

Matt Forte hasn’t delivered on his first round status either. I do like the Bears offense though and if he can run effectively in the red zone there might be some opportunities for him. Cincinnati’s defense isn’t anything special although they are better than they get credit for. Keep an eye on Garrett Wolfe going forward; he continues to play more and more and will be a big scorer if Forte gets hurt.

Bears: Forte 0, Wolfe 0

“Runnin’ for money!!!!!!!” Keeps those legs churnin’ Cedric Benson! I predicted that he would have a slightly down week after ripping up the Ravens. I’m going to go double or nothing on the predictions with him- he is going to light the Bears up like a unity candle; 2 touchdowns, 120+ total yards (rushing and receiving). Our regular readers know I’m not the predicting type but I’m on a roll with “runnin’ for $” and there’s no reason to stop now. Keep your eyes on Bernard Scott in case Benson gets hurt.

Bengals: Benson +1, Scott -1

New Orleans (5th) @ Miami (3rd)

Is there anything the New Orleans offense can’t do? The only thing that kills their running backs is that there are three of them, they are all good, and they all specialize. Pierre Thomas is your straight up runner so he tends to get most of the raw yards. Bell comes in and vultures his touchdowns. Reggie Bush snakes most of the receptions (and subsequently, yards) out of the backfield. So it is difficult to say which of them is poised for a big day. Against Miami’s stout defense Thomas and Bush are flex starts if you need them to be and Bell should stay on the bench for this matchup.

Saints: Thomas -1, Bush -1, Bell -3

I think there’s a conspiracy at ESPN. See, Sean Salisbury used to make outrageous statements, declaring a new team “the best in the NFL, a sure bet to win the Super Bowl” every single week. What I think happened is they fired him so they could all do that. I’m not saying the Saints aren’t the real deal, I’m not saying they aren’t a great team. What I am saying is that it’s mid-season. Remember how “unbeatable” the Cowboys have been early on in recent memory? So when I see that the Saints defense is 5th against the run I don’t buy that they’re that good. I think the Dolphins can run the football on this defense. I’m not sure if their defense will be able to reign in Drew Brees and his minions but I just think this is sort of a trap game for the Saints.

Dolphins: Brown 0, Williams 0

8 PM game

Arizona (1st) @ New York Giants (18th)

The Cardinals don’t see much reason to run the football unless it’s 3rd and 1. They actually do try to stay a lot more balanced than you would think but they are a pass-oriented team and will be all season. I love what Tim Hightower does for you, receiving out of the backfield and getting all the goal line touches. Beanie Wells I’m not so enthused by and without opportunities to get in the end zone I can’t justify him as anything more than a stash at this point. Considering how the Saints were able to carve up the Giants D last week you have to think the Arizona will be able to move the football and score points. That bodes well for Hightower.

Cardinals: Hightower +1, Wells -1

The Cardinals shouldn’t be ranked 1st overall against the run for long. Expect a heavy dose of Jacobs and Bradshaw this week as they try and keep the ball out of Kurt Warners hands and give their defense time to rest. I can’t give the dynamic duo a positive rating for this game- in fact I have to downgrade them slightly. But I have this sneaking suspicion that the G-men are going to try and ram it down their throats all game and might be successful.

Giants: Jacobs -1, Bradshaw -1

Monday game

Philadelphia (15th) @ Washington (22nd)

As a die hard Eagles fan last Sunday was one of the saddest days of my football life. But you get what you deserve. That’s what happens when you don’t run the football, that’s what you get when you overlook a team no matter how bad they are. I like the Eagles to come out in this contest inspired and motivated. Look for Brian Westbrook, in particular, to have one of his patented 150+ all purpose yard performances. I think LeSean McCoy warrants a flex start in all leagues 12 team or deeper.

Eagles: Westbrook +2, McCoy +1

Clinton Portis is about the only thing the Redskins have going for them right now. He continues to defy all logic and post solid performance after solid performance. That offense is a disaster right now but he’s an obvious must start. I have been touting Ladell Betts as a stash in case Portis gets injured due to the excessive workload but in this game he’s not an option to start.

Redskins: Portis -1, Betts -3

From Around The Web

  1. daniboy33 says:
    (link)

    Which RB should I start?
    J. Stewart
    J. Charles
    Vargas

  2. david says:
    (link)

    So Mike Bell or LeSean McCoy? Most peeps would go with Bell but you seem to like McCoy this week?

  3. ryan says:
    (link)

    Pick two RBs: SJax, Slaton, Hightower, T. Choice, Larry Johnson?

  4. Asdrubal Bastardo says:
    (link)

    @daniboy33: JStew most def

  5. Drew says:
    (link)

    @daniboy33: Stewart

    @david: neither will be that special but Bell only gets goal line carries. McCoy is the safer start, Bell has a little more upside b/c of the TD’s.

    @ryan: I think you gotta just go w/ your studs (SJax & Slaton) but it wouldn’t be egregrious to throw LJ in there b/c of the solid start.

  6. xopchipili says:
    (link)

    Flex Qs:

    Hakeem Nicks vs Cadillac?
    and
    Josh Morgan vs Sam Aiken?

  7. ruby says:
    (link)

    Fred Jackson or Tim Hightower for flex?

    We count return/punt yardage…

  8. Christopher says:
    (link)

    BYe-week options: Bradshaw, Brown and Hightower.
    Based on the comments, looks like it’s Hightower and Brown. Agreed?

  9. Christopher says:
    (link)

    BTW, the above is a 12-team non-PPR league.

    For my 10-team PPR league, I’m starting Mauroney and Stewart, keeping Forte on the bench. However, L Johnson is available on the WW. Thoughts?

  10. eldee says:
    (link)

    Odd man out:

    Mendenhall (vs. MIN)
    Maroney (vs. TB)
    Leon (@OAK)

    I think it’s Leon, but don’t love Mendenhall’s matchup and don’t trust Maroney.

  11. mgeoffriau

    mgeoffriau says:
    (link)

    Great article Drew. I just opened up a couple extra roster spots via trade and I’m looking to snag some backup RB’s. Available are:

    Brandon Jackson
    Ladell Betts
    Bernard Scott
    Garrett Wolfe
    Justin Forsett
    Shonn Greene
    LenDale White (blech)
    Mewelde Moore
    BJGE

    I know that’s a long list so I’m not going to ask for any explanation or reasoning — just snap decision, which 2 would you grab for potential value?

  12. nick m. says:
    (link)

    i’m 6-0 in a ppr. my starting wr’s are s.smith(nyg), wayne, and jennings with burleson on the bench. i have an owner floating calvin johnson in my direction – would it be a bad idea for me to mess with something that is working by offering my burleson and s.smith(nyg) for his calvin johnson and dwayne bowe? i don’t trust s.smith to keep it up with the other wr’s coming on a bit and i think i might be able to package one of the 4 wr’s (if the trade were to be made) with an rb2 for an rb1 possibly.

  13. matthew says:
    (link)

    nick m if u could trade ssnyg and burleson for megatron and bowe i’d be all over that in a heartbeat…bowes balling

    pick 4:
    sproles, fred jax, choice, knox, nicks, reggie bush

    not easy

  14. matthole says:
    (link)

    @mgeoffriau: whod you start this week as your RB2 in a .5ppr league: CPortis, hightower, sproles

    And, whod you slot as your WR3: Sid Rice, Garcon, Massaq, lance moore,

    Thanks

  15. Drew says:
    (link)

    I’ve got a nice problem here, pick 2 of these 5.

    .5/rec

    Benson
    Grant
    LT
    PT Bruiser
    Maroney

    I’m leaning LT & Benson…

  16. mgeoffriau

    mgeoffriau says:
    (link)

    @matthole: Hightower. Great matchup for Sproles but he’s just not getting the looks. Sidney Rice…I like Garcon and Moore, but Rice is safer right now.

  17. ryan says:
    (link)

    Currently have McNabb..my buddy is shopping Brees. He wants my Grant/Marshall for Brees..or a Westbrook/Marshall deal. I’d still have Gore and Chris Johnson if I let either RB go..and at WR i’d have Colston, Driver, Manningham in a 2 WR 2 RB 1 WR/RB option league.

    Or I could trade Grant for Bowe? Grant and Driver for Calvin and Ricky?
    Buncha offers out there…

  18. herschel says:
    (link)

    12 team ppr:

    any 2 of these 3 – heath miller, greg olsen and donald brown

    thanks in advance

  19. nate says:
    (link)

    Ahmad Bradshaw or Donald Brown this week?

    I like Brown getting carries in a route, but am worried the Colts well be up by so much that it will be Chap Simpson or some other schmohawk back getting the garbage time.

  20. eldee says:
    (link)

    @nate: I’d say the Colts would be *more* likely to run Brown in a route. He’s still a rook, it’s be good game experience, etc.

  21. Dingo says:
    (link)

    This trade just went down in my Yahoo league:

    Adrian Peterson, Steve Smith (NYG), and Donovan McNabb for Steven Jackson, Sidney Rice, and Drew Brees.

    For some reason, we never got a chance to review the trade and veto it. I’m normally very much against vetoing trades unless there’s clear evidence of collusion, but this one makes me hesitate. Do people sometimes need to be saved from their own stupidity?

  22. mgeoffriau

    mgeoffriau says:
    (link)

    @Dingo: I’m not sure it’s that lopsided. I’d rather have the AP side, but he’s worried about ankle injuries and whatnot, I can see the rationale.

  23. Christopher says:
    (link)

    Just completed sending Hightower/Nicks to get Gore/Cotchery. RNA will now be MJD, Brown, Bradshaw & Gore. WRs will be Megatron, White, Driver, Cotchery. Thoughts?

  24. Doc

    Doc says:
    (link)

    @nate: I like Bradshaw. The Cardinals have a good run D, but not that good!

  25. Calogero says:
    (link)

    I need 2 starters; one RB2 and one Flex:

    Breaston
    Fred Jackson
    McCoy
    Fargas

    I’m currently leaning towards Fargas at RB2 and Breaston at Flex. I need to win this week, and have a pretty favorable matchup, so I’d rather take a more guaranteed 6-8 points rather than a shot at someone like McCoy or F-Jax who could put up 2 or 12. Input?

  26. Doc

    Doc says:
    (link)

    @Calogero: I like Breaston and Jackson.

    @nate: I like Brown.

    @herschel: Brown and Miller

    @ryan: Tough, I am down on both Grant and Westbrook and it would be nice to upgrade McNabb for Brees. I guess I’d go with the Westy trade cuz I just don’t think he’ll make it all year.

  27. Christopher says:
    (link)

    @Doc: Thanks Doc – following your advice on that one!

    About this weekend, as the trade won’t go through until after Sunday…
    12-team non-PPR, bye-week options: Bradshaw, Brown and Hightower.
    Based on the comments, looks like it’s Hightower and Brown. Agreed?

    For my 10-team PPR league, I’m starting Mauroney and Stewart, keeping Forte on the bench. However, L Johnson is available on the WW. Thoughts?

  28. hideousmutants says:
    (link)

    Noticed your downgrading Turner in this post. I recently traded Grant and Sanchez for him (which I was happy about). SJax owner is probably getting pretty frustrated with him and I could conceivably get SJax for Turner. Is that just a lateral move? They both have ok playoff schedules.

    Thoughts?

  29. Doc

    Doc says:
    (link)

    @mgeoffriau: forsett, betts

  30. Christopher says:
    (link)

    Doc, Drew, what do you think about this analysis of the ARI D:

    “Frank Gore scored twice on them, Maurice Jones-Drew averaged five yards a carry before a two-TD deficit took the ball out of his hands, Indy’s two-headed backfield combined for 103 yards on the ground (and another 80 and a score through the air), Chris Brown stole a TD from Steve Slaton despite Slaton’s 98 combo yards, and the Seahawks abandon the run after 10 attempts. Do you really believe they’re going to hold up to a Giants’ ground game that’s averaging 31 attempts and 142 rushing yards per game?”

  31. eldee says:
    (link)

    Odd man out:

    Mendenhall (vs. MIN)
    Maroney (vs. TB)
    Leon (@OAK)

    I think it’s Leon, but don’t love Mendenhall’s matchup and don’t trust Maroney.

  32. Doc

    Doc says:
    (link)

    @Christopher: Sounds about right.

    @eldee: I like Leon, especially without Cotchery, and with Sanchez sucking I see a lot of running from NY.

    Maroney does have the better matchup, I like his chances to get into the endzone.

  33. Atomic says:
    (link)

    Who to go with at flex this week? Leon W, Bradshaw, Lynch, Stewart, Austin, Choice, Hester, LJ, Collie, Garcon, Donald Brown, Kevin Walter? I am thinking Leon, but not really sure.

  34. Byron says:
    (link)

    @Doc/Drew/anyone-trying to decide for my flex position- 1pt ppr league- pick one please- lance moore, hakeem nicks, greg olsen, massaquoia

  35. Clodbuster says:
    (link)

    @ryan: Trade Westbrook and Marshall for Brees and then trade Grant for Bowe.Grant and Westbrook each face unfavorable schedules for the fantasy playoffs and who knows how many games Westbrook might miss along the way. Johnson and Gore are plenty and your receivers are plenty quality enough to play three of them.

    Don’t worry about the possible depth issue at RB considering Brees has had his bye already, so you can always try to trade McNabb for RB depth, and still have decent WR’s to throw one into the deal if necessary.

  36. Clodbuster says:
    (link)

    @Byron: I think massaquoia will have the most opportunity and isn’t that half the battle, at least.

  37. Doc

    Doc says:
    (link)

    @Atomic: Love J Stew this week.

    @Byron: I’m starting to like Nicks more and more.

  38. xopchipili says:
    (link)

    making flex decisions in two leagues:

    Hakeem Nicks vs Cadillac?
    and
    Josh Morgan vs Sam Aiken?

  39. Doc

    Doc says:
    (link)

    @xopchipili: Nicks and Morgan

  40. AL KOHOLIC says:
    (link)

    @mgeoffriau: @Doc: anyone else having trouble getting on the new post ?the couch rocket,wont let on,says im on a wrong page or something,

  41. eldee says:
    (link)

    @Doc: So you’re saying bench Mendenhall?

  42. Byron says:
    (link)

    @doc/clodbuster-thanks for the help guys- forgot to ask about my rb2- i have smith and moreno on bye leaving me benson for one spot and a bunch of suck known as jamal lewis and ben jarvus green-ellis to pick from for the #2rb-bye weeks suck

  43. Doc

    Doc says:
    (link)

    @AL KOHOLIC: Thanks, yeah, it should be ok now.

    @eldee: Yeah, it’s a tough call. Maroney for upside. Mendenhall for low risk.

    @Byron: Ellis may get garbage time, but Maroney should be the lead back. Lewis is probably the safer bet.

Comments are closed.