(EDIT: Here are the most up to date rankings –> Auction Values, Tiers and Cheat Sheet for PPR – http://su.pr/A17UuB NonPPR – http://su.pr/9DEgIM)
If you look back in time to the Top 30 you will see the guys who are worth drafting before these guys. It’s a rankings thing. There will be people less worth drafting in the future. It all evens out. Don’t feel too bad for these dudes.
31. Philip Rivers: Last season was set up as a bad movie for Rivers. He started the season without his best receiver, but thankfully had Antonio Gates setting the world ablaze, but then down goes Gates! So his two best receivers are just gone and still he ends up as the 5th best fantasy QB! Really, with Gates and VJax back this could be a special year for Rivers. Projection: 75/1 — 4500/33/12
32. Miles Austin: Austin and Romo connected early and often last season and then Romo went down and took Austin with him. Dez Bryant didn’t get to line up across from Austin while Romo was at the helm, but I can only see Dez’s presence helping Austin. Bryant is a constant threat to score and teams must keep an eye on him. Austin will get more targets and more receptions than Bryant and be the go to guy for most games. He’ll be solid. Projection: 1175/7
33. Jermichael Finley: Is he the safest tight end to draft first out of all the TEs? No Mr. Smarty Pants! He is not. After a knee injury on the first drive of week 5 of last season I can see why you might be worried about him coming back, but what about Gates and Clark Mr. Intelligent Trousers? They were injured as well and Finley has had longer to heal. I am worried about gates staying healthy more than Finley and I believe Finley can be even better than Gates. At 6’5″ 250 he out speeds and out lanks the 6’4″ 260 Antonio Gates. He is a specimen and the next great TE. Get on board. Projection: 1150/9
34. Tom Brady: Last season really was one for the ages. He was only the third ranked fantasy QB, but 36 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions are mind boggling numbers and I’ve never even played boggle! His 50 TD year won’t be surpassed, but put those two together and you have a pair of seasons that will go down in history. How in the hell can you only throw 4 interceptions again? It can’t happen. He’ll slip a little and with Belichick you just can’t be sure what he’ll do to hurt Brady’s fantasy value. You know he isn’t going to get the rushing TDs like Vick and Rodgers and he doesn’t quite have the weapons of Manning, but you also can’t let him slip too far. He’ll win you some fake games. Projection: 50/1 — 4350/32/7
35. Ahmad Bradshaw: Bradshaw had his breakout season last year with over 300 touches, 1500 yards and 8 TDs and that was with Brandon Jacobs getting nearly 150 carries and 9 touchdowns! We will see a similar break down this season and there is no reason to think we won’t see similar numbers. Projection: 1150/7 — 300/1
36. Shonn Greene: Greene is hard to read. He was poised to breakout last season after an awesome playoff stretch the season before, but ended up doing little to nothing last year and taking a back seat to the ancient Tomlinson. This season Rex Ryan is giving plenty of lip-service to the fact that Greene will be their workhorse and you just can’t discount that. Joe McKnight, L.T. and Bilal Powell are all there to get work if Greene can’t get it done again this season, but opportunity often trumps everything else and the Jets are a tough defensive team that will run the ball more than not. You have to give Greene another fantasy shot. Projection: 1300/9 — 100/1
37. Ryan Mathews: The news out of training camp started off horribly with a injured toe, and continues to be crappy. This does of course reinforce the worries about his health. The problem or not problem is that his upside is great. He’s obviously a special talent and on such a high scoring team I’m ready to take a risk on him, but it’s still a risk and if he can’t practice I’ll be tossing him down this page to land on your keyboard all mangled and stuff. Projection: 1150/8 — 250/1
38. LeGarrette Blount: Blount is a work horse and with the loss of Caddy Williams and the Bucs deciding not to bring in another running back, he will remain a work horse. He didn’t have double digit carries until week seven and still had a thousand yards rushing. If you project him out to a full season’s work load he would have had 2 billion yards rushing. Or somewhere close. Thankfully he didn’t get an insane workload for the season and no playoff work so he should be fresh for this season and on a team on the rise should have some TD opportunities. Projection: 1200/10 — 50/0
39. Antonio Gates: If Gates didn’t have foot issues he’d be my clear #1 TE this season. He was on pace to eclipse every TE record in the known and probably unknown universe. I just don’t see him not having some health issues this season, but he’s too good not to take the risk. Projection: 1100/8
40. Tony Romo: Here starts a new QB tier, one I’d like to call, I sure hope Romo falls to me in the 5th round of every draft. For me Romo is actually in the tier above, but don’t tell anyone; that would spoil the surprise. Sadly there are a ton of Cowboy fans littering fantasy leagues out there that might grab him before you, but I’m happy to take him in the 4th round which is a little earlier than his ADP right now. Romo has put up elite numbers in the past, but has shown inconsistency and injury problems. With the addition of Bryant and the subtraction of any running back that can run it in from the one, I think he has the ability to be top 5 again this season. Here is a post I wrote during the off season detailing why I like him a little further. Projection: 100/1 — 4400/31/14
41. Stevie Johnson: Lil Stevie Johnson showed up big time last season finishing as the 10th best fantasy receiver with 82 receptions, 1,073 yards and 10 touchdowns. I see him getting similar numbers this season with a slight decrease in TDs because I’m conservative like that, but there is no reason to think he can’t continue to improve with Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing to him again and Chan Gailey running the offense and if he does, he’ll be a steal in most drafts. Projection: 1100/8
42. Brandon Lloyd: I remember watching Brandon Lloyd make a one handed grab for the Niners in full stride once and thinking, this dude can play and then watching him just perennially suck ass. Whatever the reason, he finally figured it out last season. Yes, Josh McDaniel’s offense helped, but watching him play, it was easy to see his ability and that his coach and QB could see it as well. Getting the confidence of your QB and coach is often half the battle. So now there is a new coach in town, but Kyle Orton managed to stick in Denver for another season. John Fox’s offense is more run oriented, but you don’t take the #1 fantasy receiver from last season and just stop targeting him. Yes, I have him pretty low, but I still feel good about drafting him in the third round when his ADP is in the 4th. Projection: 1100/8
43. Brandon Marshall: In his first season with the Dolphins he had 86 receptions for 1,014 yards. That’s not bad, that’s the 5th most receptions for a receiver last season and the 5th most targets. Is that something you want in a receiver? Yes, yes it is. But how about his 3 touchdowns? How do you feel about those? Yeah, me too. Davone Bess had a couple hundred less yards and still had 5 TDs. Marshall is bound to score more, and has the upside to score a lot more. Projection: 1100/7
44. Mike Williams: The rookie receiver was one of the few rookie receivers to ever be fantasy relevant as he caught 10 touchdown passes from Josh Freeman last season. Those 10 TDs only came on 65 receptions which is a bit abnormal as far as TD rates go, but he showed that he is a legit big play, red zone receiver and should continue that trend this season. Josh Freeman and Arrelious Benn should both continue to improve which will make things easier for that offense and Williams in turn. Projection: 1075/7
45. Dez Bryant: No other receiver outside of the studs has as much insane upside as Dez Bryant this season. Yes, he has Miles Austin and Jason Witten taking away looks, but with the lack of a running back that will get double digit TDs there are going to be a ton of touchdown opportunities to go around and Dex is going to be a TD monster with his ability to jump, high point the ball, out muscle and steel hand lock any moving thing. I want to own Dez this season and if I’m in a dynasty league I want to own him even more. Projection: 950/9
46. Santonio Holmes: The Jets have brought in Plaxico Burress and Derrick Mason which together equals a 70 year old receiver. Yes, Mike Wallace is in his 70s, but really these two guys aren’t as good as Braylon Edwards which isn’t saying much and Holmes will be the go to guy every game. He’s a solid receiver and will put up solid numbers. Solid! Projection: 1075/7
47. Mark Ingram: Yeah I know, the last time you drafted a rookie running back early it was Ryan Mathews and he sucked. I hear ya. But this is a new day and a new team and a new player and well, it’s new. I am wary of rookies as well, but when you have an early down/goal line back on a high scoring offense, well, you have to take notice. The Saints have all kinds of complimentary backs, but they aren’t going to rotate every down and Sean Payton, for all the throwing his offense does, loves to run the ball. They had 21 rushing TDs in ’09 when they won the Super Bowl. He actually made Mike Bell relevant! They are going to get back to that this season and ride Ingram. Projection: 1100/9 — 100/1
48. DeAngelo Williams: DWill is a top 5 talent, but is injury prone and on a crappy team and has a top 10 talent running back on the same team. That kinda sucks. But it is what it is which means you can get Williams’ talent at a discounted price. That part doesn’t suck as much. Projection: 1050/6 — 200/1
49. Ryan Grant: Ryan Grant is an interesting case. He’s the starting early down/goal line back on a high powered offense, but is coming back from an injury and competing for touches with James Starks who looked very good in the playoffs last season. But Grant gives us faux footballers the chance to get a starting running back at a discounted rate. I’m not in love with his upside but if you can get him at value it’s worth it. Projection: 1075/7 — 150/1
50. Sidney Rice: Rice is one of my favorite receivers. His ability is through the roof, but sadly he was traded to the Seahawks and his upside is capped with Tarvaris Jackson as his QB. Thankfully, even though TJax has shown a great ability to suck, he does have a history with Rice and just last season in week 12 threw 2 TDs to him and one was just a jump ball because he knew Rice is one of the best at catching passes in traffic. He is too good to let fall far. Projection: 1100/6
