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jay-cutler-josh-mccown

There are two C’s in my last name buddy.

The first question you should ask yourself while you’re doing your best Taxi Driver impersonation in the mirror is– really, are Jay’s rankings crazy? Or am I just crazy? (Check them out… Razzball Football rankings). The ole’ smoke dog is here to just squeeze water out of a stone, take the dog down the block… or whatever the appropriate wit of wisdom is. So I will first look today at quarterback and will be using the half-PPR scoring formats in the RCL’s as the backbone for discussion. The class is as deep as the minds of Minolta. The good ole theory of waiting, or sorta waiting, comes into play.  The top-12 QB’s from a year ago had a range of  154.8 points between them, no thanks in large part to the ridiculous all-time season of Peyton Manning. With that, I’m going to focus on how Josh McCown could be a fantasy forgotten in TB.  The same Josh McCown who basically scored 25 pts less than Jay Cutler did all year, but only in 5 1/2 games.  Stay after the bump we get deeper and deeper into the proof or lack of it.

So who likes pudding? Because the proof is apparently in it, and it doesn’t affect the flavor. Weird, but true. So in the 5 1/2 games that McCown got some burn as the Bears QB, he averaged 22 fantasy points a game. I know that seems like an insignificant stat; and he has a different offense, different players, and a new game plan… but back to those 22 points a game he averaged. If you extrapolate that over the entire season of 2013, he would finish ummm… 3rd among QB average scoring per week. Only Peyton and Brees had a higher average scoring per week. Yeah, I hear ya, if and buts were soup and nuts. So lets look at the different numbers that you may not know, and how how the talent that he has isn’t that much different than what the Bears had.

So the Bears have a prolific fantasy triumvirate of Marshall, Forte and a blow-up season from Alshon.  So now with Tampa Bay, McCown has a big-play, deep threat in Vincent Jackson, a top-flight rookie with possession and red zone appeal in Mike Evans, and a RB, Doug Martin, that has shown the ability (when healthy) to be a great PPR and standard league stalwart. Now, if I just wrote that and didn’t put Jackson’s or Evan’s or Martin’s name, would you think they were any different than the combo the Bears have?

The key to McCown’s value is his effectiveness as a vertical passer.  He was 2nd in the league in QBR on said vertical passes, which is music to V-Jax’s ears. You know what else I like? Lovie Smith has brought in a QB guru to run the offense with Jeff Tedford. All of these things look shiny and new and are all a “well if this goes right maybe situation,” but look at it this way– In drafts, McCown is basically going after Michael Vick and Teddy Bridgewater, or for those into numbers, somewhere in Rd 15.  So where is the gamble?  I don’t necessarily think that he is a QB1, but he has the appeal and weapons to be one if last year wasn’t a fluke. Which it wasn’t!

Smokey’s Stat Prediction: 3800 YDS, 27 TD’s, and 12 INT’s

  1. Chuck says:
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    As a Tampa homebody I I’d give ya’ll my thoughts on McCown. Yes, we Bucs fans are all hoping he can mimic his numbers from last year. We were all excited when he got here and that excitment was smashed last week in his 1st preseason game.

    So how did Josh do? Well it was hard to tell when he had savage D-Lineman in his face every play. And by every play I mean every freaking play!!! It looked bad guys, real bad. At this piont eyeing Josh as an underrated stud looks like a bad mistake. My suggestion is to research the Bucs games and see if their O-Line makes improvement. If they show no promise I see little value from Josh this year.

    I’m sure our cooridanators will adjust and come up with quicker schemes perhaps, and McCown could be effictive at best. But from a fantasy spot I will require some better Line play for me to pick Josh as any more then a gutshot bench role.

    Also, I can appreciate the (somewhat)comparisions to Mannings and Bress, but those guys(along with all the great one) have more then just great playmakers to get the ball to. They got great blocking in front of them.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Chuck: The O-line was bad but it wasn’t the worst in the league. Hopefully the additions of Dietrich-Smith, Cousins, Collins and the drafting of Kadeem Edwards sures up the loss of Nicks.

  2. Acid_Head says:
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    I love McCown, I wish I wouldn’t have traded him in my dynasty league after he was rumored to retire. Nice write up I’m definitely guna look to grab him in some mocks and see how it turns out.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Acid_Head: Thanks, let me know how the draftibg goes always curious.

  3. G says:
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    Hey Smokey. In 12 team head to head half point ppr league. It’s first year where we can have up to 3 keepers. My only options are:

    Vereen (round 5)
    Hilton (round 5)
    Foles (round 8)
    Woodhead (round 8)

    If I keep vereen and Hilton though they would be by 5th and 4th round picks.

    I also have the second pick in overall snake draft and will take whoever is available between Charles and AP in case that factors into your thoughts. My thoughts are to keep vereen as a 5th, and go Wr, Wr with my round 2 and 3 picks and best available wih my 4th making AP/Charles and vereen as my two Rbs along wih two top Wrs and another random player (4th rounder). I’m not sure if I want to take foles in the 8th as well. Thanks for your thought in advance.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @G: Gotta keep Foles I would imagine that alot of Qb’s are kept in your league

  4. Asst2RegionalMgr says:
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    What about having Lovie as his coach? As a bears fan i know his default is “We get off the bus running” and when push comes to shove he will default to the safe strategy and not open it up. Have to put some weight in Lovie as coach.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Asst2RegionalMgr: I hear ya, but given the fact that he is on average the 25th Qb taken value is in his favor. I am not a Lovie fan as a play caller

  5. Clint says:
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    I can’t buy the McCown hype and lean toward Trestman being the reason for his success alone (and the Bears WR’s didn’t hurt). The man’s been on 6 different NFL teams in his career and was an assistant high school coach before the Bears signed him out of desperation. This isn’t Kurt Warner we’re talking about. He’s been good in stretches but has never proven himself a reliable QB over the long run. You’re right about his value where he’s being drafted but I wouldn’t trust him as anything more than a bench prayer and am not targeting any of his receivers as such.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Clint: I hear ya but as a 25th QB off the board I think there is value.

  6. Oliver says:
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    I need keeper help. Rounds do not matter in our keeper league, but it is otherwise a standard non-PPR format. Jay insists I keep Eddie Lacy and Antonio Brown, but I want a second opinion. It is hard to let go of Peyton, despite the regression fairies and the depth of the position. And I’m higher on Ball than he is too, so the old-school Fantasy fart in me wants to go Lacy, Ball and take my luck with WRs in the draft. Help me figure things out. Thanks!

    My potential keepers are: Lacy, Ball, Peyton, Antonio Brown, Garcon, Andre Johnson

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Oliver: Well Lacy is one so you’re half way there if you keep 2. I agree with you that letting Peyton go is tough to swallow. What pick do you have? Do you know what other teams are keeping as of yet? If it’s a question of Peyton or Brown or Ball I lean Peyton honestly. Winning is for now.

      • Oliver says:
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        @Smokey: I won’t know my draft position until draft day. The only other QB that has been kept so far is Brees, and three teams (out of 10) have yet to decide. Foles and Brady may be kept, but I’d be surprised if the third team sticks with Eli.

        Everyone else went RB, WR with one going WR, WR:
        Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant
        Brandon Marshall, Matt Forte
        Drew Brees, LaSean McCoy
        Marshawn Lynch, DeSean Jackson
        Adrian Peterson, Demaryius Thomas
        AJ Green, Doug Martin

        I agree with your strategy though- keeper or not, I want to win now. I’ll worry about who I keep next year while I’m counting my cash.

        • Smokey

          Smokey says:
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          @Oliver: Keeping Manning gives you 2 first rders in any format…

          • Oliver says:
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            @Smokey: Thank you, sir. I think it is the safer bet as well.

  7. goodfold2 says:
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    alshon/julio/rodgers/ball/cobb/gronk keep one per year PPR with 6 pts per any type of TD. Rodgers a good bit olders than these others.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @goodfold2: Julio is my pick there with Rodgers a very close second.

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @Smokey: that’s what Jaywrong had too, although i’m betting he’d have jeffery higher than rodgers.

  8. goodfold2 says:
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    baseball one. holds/losses/OBPA as cats. replace joba with any of dunn/herrera/medina?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @goodfold2: I like what I have seen from Herrera and Medina that if your not limited on moves I would play hot hand

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