Hello, Razzballers! So, it’s almost draft day, and you’re drafting 10th overall. You’ve spent the last 3 weeks debating who you want to take, and you’ve finally made up your mind to take Drew Brees, the number 1 fantasy QB in the game today. You feel great about your pick, because he will most likely finish the season atop the list in fantasy points, and you got that at 10th overall! What a steal!
This is where value based drafting comes into play. Let’s talk strategy! What is value based drafting? Well, it’s quite simple actually. Rather than drafting the best name on the board, you draft what positional player will give you the best value at that point in your draft. That’s all. Thanks for reading, and enjoy winning your league with that simple advice. Take care!
Okay. Obviously I’m not going to leave you Razzers hanging with many questions unanswered. So, let’s cut to it. How do you determine what position will provide the best value?
First. Rank your players by position. Not just your top 10, but enough that you think will get drafted. “But I don’t know anything about football, this is my first season!” Oh, of course it is! Well, Razzball has put the best projections together for you, so let’s just use those.
Second. Use your leagues settings to calculate how many fantasy points each player will put up based on your projections. “But I don’t know anything about football, this is my first season!” I get it… but thanks to Razzball, along with their rankings, are projections! Let’s use those as well!
Third. Determine how many players at each position will be drafted to fill up a starting line up in your league. The Razzball Commenter Leagues use 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, and 1 RB/WR. (We’ll ignore DEF and K because frankly, I hope none of you are drafting DEF or K until the late rounds. I’m talking very late. Like last 2 rounds late.) Therefore, 12 QBs must be drafted, 12 TE, 30RB and 30WR (let’s assume that half of the WR/RB positions are split equally).
Fourth. Now that all projections have been calculated, let’s determine the value of each player at each position. To do this, what you have to calculate is the percentage of points each ranked player is above the last ranked player. For example, for QBs, you calculate by percentage, how much bigger QBs ranked #1-11 are than QB ranked #12. For RB, you do the same, except with RBs ranked #1-29 over RB ranked #30.
Sure, this is definitely time consuming to enter the players, their projections, and their values, so, to make life easy here at Razzball, I have done all that for you! Let’s take a look at how things shape up (involving all positions). Let’s check out how the first round would shape up using value based drafting…
So, going back to what was mentioned earlier about drafting 10th, is it really worth it to be drafting Drew Brees, despite him being the best quarterback? Probably not. DeAngelo Williams will provide more value for you. So by drafting Drew Brees early, you’re giving up better value, or, better put, you are giving better value to your opponents. This makes it much more difficult for you to catch up when you’re scrambling later on to fill in your starting lineup. “But, maybe Brees was ranked 13th, which makes taking him 10th overall not such a bad idea.” Okay, let’s look at the next round.
Hmmm… no Drew Brees. But there are a couple of tight ends in there! Does that make drafting Antonio Gates in the second round okay? Probably not. But this does show you that drafting him in the fourth or fifth round provides great value for where you get him. Let’s look at the third round.
Ahh, Drew Brees. Finally. By taking him 10th overall, you would be giving up 19 spots of better value. Is that something you really want to do? I’m guessing no.
So, to sum things up, should you be using value based drafting as a guide on draft day? No, definitely not. Use ADP as your guide. BUT, use value based drafting to help you determine the value of the player you are about to draft. Use your knowledge of draft trends to find value. So, let’s say in this example I am debating to draft a QB or a WR. According to ADP and my previous knowledge, I am expecting 2 QBs and 6 WRs to be drafted before my next pick. Let’s assume that the drop off in the next 2 QBs is only 5%, while the 6 WR drop off is 15%. It makes much more sense to draft the WR because otherwise you will be losing a lot more value.
As the key to building your starting line up with the most overall value, there are times (usually around the 3rd round on) where you will take a lesser overall value player because the expected drop off in value to your next pick is so great at another position. Anyways, I hope this wasn’t too much information, and if you have any questions, feel free to ask!
P.S. Since we at razzball love our readers so much, we have provided you all with a free downloadable value based drafting kit. It’s a basic kit, and nothing too extreme. They have razzball’s player rankings, but no projections! Oh no! However, the percentages given in the kit are based on razzballs projections. But, those projections will be revealed slowly, so you’ll have to keep coming back to get the latest player news, projections and more!