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There is a constant struggle to slice, dice, and crunch the statistics in a way that is most helpful for you.  The struggle this week was about if we should continue to use 2010 stats or rely only on the two weeks of 2011.  While a solid argument can be made for using the second half of last season’s stats in conjunction with the two weeks of this season, we decided to use exclusively 2011 data.

I feel strongly that using current data, based on current defensive rosters performances is the right way to proceed.  Over the next month,  statistical trends will grow stronger and we will be able make even better predictions on who will have success or fail based on their matchup.  Until the sample size grows we will have to rely on some interpretations.  Below are a couple of quick observations.

-Houston and Cleveland have both played Kerry Collins.  Their pass defenses, while good, might not be as good as Collins has made them look.

-Jets, Steelers, and despite what Matt Ryan did on Sunday night…the Eagles pass defense, will be in the top ten all season, get used to it.

-Miami got into a week one shootout with Tom Brady and played Matt Schaub in week 2.  Their pass defense is probably better than 32nd in the league.

I would also like to use the chart to make a few player specific observations.

-The Chiefs have allowed the third most fantasy points to tight ends this year, and they are playing Antonio Gates this week.

-If Evan Moore can score on Cincinnati, so can Vernon Davis.

-Kerry Collins and the Steelers are two good reasons to sit Reggie Wayne this week if you have another option.

-Jerome Simpson and David Nelson’s breakouts should continue this week against San Francisco and New England, respectively.

-The only thing that will slow down Philip Rivers and Vincent Jackson this week against Kansas City is if they are so far ahead they stop passing.

-You are not in a good place if you are considering starting Donovan McNabb, but let me just say, “Don’t do it.”

-From the desk of Captain Obvious, Jay Cutler will throw for a lot of yards, multiple TDs and multiple INTS this week against Green Bay.  If you aren’t penalized too much for interceptions, Cutler is a good play this week.

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Key:

Team: The team that is being evaluated for their defensive strength

Opp: The team with your fantasy players

Yds/gm: Total passing yards given up per game

QB FPA: Fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks

Comp%: Completion Percentage against

WR FPA: Fantasy points allowed to wide receivers

TE FPA: Fantasy points allowed to tight ends

DVOA: Defense-adjusted Value Over Average

Yds/c: Yards Per Catch

TDs: Passing touchdowns allowed

Average: The average of each each individual ranking

From Around The Web

  1. Plainview says:
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    Was offered Jordy Nelson for Shonn Green – I’m hurting at WR and also have Mendenhall, Tolbert, Mathews and Helu at RB. Should I consider it?

  2. swalmy says:
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    Cutler or Rex?

  3. HotRod says:
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    Please rank ROS…Full PPR

    Steve Smith CAR
    DeSean
    Santonio

  4. swalmy says:
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    Or Ben?

  5. Ryan says:
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    Eli @ PHI or Ryan @ TB?

  6. swalmy says:
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    Eli has no rec this week I hear

  7. Ryan says:
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    Hixon is out for the season, but Manningham and Nicks will play.

  8. Dollabill says:
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    I need help figuring out who to play at my WR2, TE, and WR/RB/T roster spots this week. My options are:
    nate washington
    Mike Thomas (jac)
    Mario Manningham
    Green-Ellis
    Felix Jones
    Vernon Davis
    Dustin Keller

    Thanks Chet!

  9. Heraldo says:
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    Cutler or Fitzpatrick? I’m leaning Cutler, but not much separates the NE and GB defense according to the chart. Do I dare pick against Fitzpatrick again?

  10. Dollabill says:
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    sorry for the ommission (I know this doesnt make things easier), but I also just grabbed McCluster off the free agent list..

  11. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Plainview: He’s still going to be the 3rd most targeted player in GB. I like him, but I’d like to get a little more if possible.

    @swalmy: Rex

    @HotRod: Smith, DJax, Holmes

    @Ryan: Ryan

    @Dollabill: Thomas, VD, BJGE

    @Heraldo: I’m leaning Fitz in a shootout

    @Dollabill: He’s risky for now

  12. Joe B says:
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    Wondering who is the better pickup in a 1/2 PPR league… D Nelson or Denarius Moore?

  13. herschel says:
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    @Doc: need to start two of the following in a ppr league:

    harvin vs det
    wayne vs pit
    julio @ tb

    who do you like?

  14. Van Haggard says:
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    Doc- what defense do you like better this week? Dallas vs WAS, Arizona @ SEA, or Tenesee vs DEN?

  15. longbeachyo says:
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    B. Marshall or A.J. Green?

  16. sos says:
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    @Doc: Just grabbed Denarius Moore in a dynasty league for a buck. How many years should I go for his contract? Thinking 1 or 2? Would cost a $1.10 next year with a $250 cap…

  17. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @sos: He’s got some real talent. I’m holding onto him for as long as you can.

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