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They say one week is a fluke, two weeks is a trend, and three weeks is reality. Who says that? I don’t know, I may have just made it up. But it applies for early season breakouts on both of the offensive and defensive side of the ball. So while you one-dimensional owners debate over Eddie Royal and James Starks, I’ll dive deep on some impressive early-September IDP performers in this week’s Adds/Drops/Rising/Falling:

Injuries

The following players have already been ruled out for Sunday – get them out of your lineups:

Kroy Biermann, Sean Weatherspoon, Tyvon Branch, Charles Godfrey, Patrick Robinson

Adds

Danny Trevathan – His name makes him sounds like the next great action hero, and his game backs that up. While Nate Irving has disappointed through two weeks, Trevathan has stepped up for a short-handed Broncos D. He has supplemented his 14 total tackles with a sack and a pick, and he gets a nice matchup against Oakland in Week 3.

Robert McClain – He’s not very good at denying his man the ball, but after they catch it, McClain brings them down. With 17 solos on the books after two games, McClain has a pass-happy NFC South schedule, along with games against the Pats, Cards and Packers the rest of the way. His schedule, and his strengths, should make him a breakout IDP corner this year.

Buster Skrine – With the T-Rich trade, the Browns have essentially waved the white flag on this season. That’s great news for their defense, who would have been on the field a lot even when Cleveland was trying to win. Skrine gets the benefit of lining up opposite Joe Haden, and the bounty of targets that go with it. His 16 total tackles through two games are a nice preview of things to come.

Drops

Corey Liuget – I know the ability is there, but Liuget has laid an egg in back-to-back games to start the year. Guys like Watt, Atkins and Muhammad might get a pass for that, but once we get down to Liuget’s level, patience might not pay off. With a number of viable DL options on the waiver wire, I wouldn’t blame you for moving on.

Colin McCarthy – Some injuries I’m patient with, and some I’m not. McCarthy has yet to show that he can be counted on every week, and that type of inconsistency drives me crazy. If he has a late game, is it worth risking it? Do I really need to carry an extra LB just in case? If you can get anything for him in a trade, go for it. Otherwise I’m fine with cutting him loose.

Ed Reed – We’ve seen this before. Reed starts the season healthy and productive, then gets nicked up within the first month and is listed as questionable for about 10 straight weeks. Sometimes he plays, sometimes he doesn’t. You’re never quite confident enough to start him, but his potential is so great that you can’t drop him. Well now we have the same situation, but without the production or the potential. Give him the Old Yeller treatment.

Rising

Dontari Poe – I wasn’t ready to give him the benefit of the doubt after Week 1, mainly because I don’t trust anyone that the Chiefs draft. But after 10 tackles and 3.5 sacks in two games, will I doubt Poe again? Nevermore…until he stops producing.

Brian Cushing – Just like we held our breath last year for Adrian Peterson and this year for RG3, Cushing’s torn ACL had all football fans nervous that he wouldn’t regain his previous level of performance. The early results look promising: 16 tackles, 2 sacks, and a pick six in two games. If you drafted him as an LB2 (or LB3!), congrats, you have yourself a top 15 LB the rest of the way.

Baccari Rambo – He is the only real challenger to Duke Ihenacho for the “Best Name for an IDP Breakout Candidate” and he has the performance to back it up. 18 tackles and a sack in his first two career games is a nice start, and he should only get better with experience. Ihenacho may have drawn First Blood, but Rambo might be the young DB to own from here on out.

Falling

Muhammad Wilkerson – Wilkerson was my boy all preseason, as I thought he could be in for a Watt-like 2013. The talent is clearly there, and he got a sack in Week 1, but he’s already being treated like Watt by opposing O-Lines, commanding a double team on every play. This limits his tackle opportunities, the major source of his value, so I’m slowing down the Wilkerson-as-a-DL1 bandwagon for now. The bright side of the is situation is that his counterpart, Sheldon Richardson, should put up some solid stats as a rookie.

Nick Roach – Honestly…I don’t know. I don’t know what happened to Roach last weekend. No one in their right mind was watching the Oak/Jax game over the Manning Bowl, New Orleans/Tampa, or even NASCAR, but I’d like to hear a good explanation of how Roach got shut out. I’m still a believer in him in the long-run, but if my MLB puts up a goose-egg, I need to pump the brakes on my support. I’m not dropping him by any means, but I would think twice about starting him this week.

Morgan Burnett – Notice that this is a “Falling” and not a full on drop…yet. Despite ranking him as my #1 overall DB in the preseason, Burnett has yet to see the field due to a hamstring injury, and there is no guarantee that he’ll be back next week. This is causing Burnett owners to carry an extra DB, and given the price they likely paid on draft day, it’s tough to stomach dropping him. I would sit tight for another week or two, but considering the lingering nature of hamstring injuries, if you can get anything in return for Burnett, I’d make the move.

Here are my Week 3 IDP Rankings:

 

Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyPros

22 Responses

  1. Anthony says:
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    If you had to pick one for ROS PPR..E.Sanders, G. Jennings, Floyd (ARIZ), or Gordon (CLE)? Could you please rank them?

    • Kevin Kumpf

      Kevin Kumpf says:
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      @Anthony:

      I like Gordon by far the most there. Of the rest, Floyd probably has the highest ceiling, and Jennings is probably the safest. I’m staying as far away from Pitt as I can.

  2. Mike says:
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    I’m new to IDP and have a question about my starters.

    I have Laurinaitis, Eric Berry, and Cameron Wake, and while they haven’t been terrible, I have definitely been lacking in points from my D compared to other teams in the league. These guys are always at the top of the IDP weekly ranks, so do I have to start them every week and just roll with it, or should I be playing matchups better?

    I know it’s early in the season still, but I see guys like Tony Carter and McKelvin on the waivers and can’t help but think it’s better to flip in guys that are hot, especially Carter vs the Raiders this week.

    • Kevin Kumpf

      Kevin Kumpf says:
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      @Mike:

      Resist the urge to jump ship! You likely drafted these guys early with the hope of riding them to the playoffs, so don’t give up so quickly. Unless they are hurt, these three should be in your lineup every week.

      In IDP, studs will have off weeks more often than on offense, but the reason they’re studs is that they make up for it later (see Mario Williams, Week 2). That’s a hell of a core, so you don’t have anything to worry about.

      • Mike says:
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        @Kevin Kumpf:

        Well 10 mins after I read your post Berry went for a pick 6!

        Too bad I had Vick in another league… he was more inconsistent than Lindsey Lohan’s periods.

        Cheers!

  3. Buge Hoobs says:
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    Someone just dropped Bobby Wagner …
    ROS … Should I drop D. Butler, K. Alonso or hold tight

    • Sully says:
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      @Buge Hoobs: Drop Butler now and never look back! Hurry, go now!

    • Kevin Kumpf

      Kevin Kumpf says:
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      @Sully: @Buge Hoobs:

      I agree with Sully, make that move immediately!

      Butler is solid, but Alonso’s ceiling is huge and Wagner is an absolute stud. The owner that dropped him should be kicked out of your league.

  4. Jack Full O' Hate says:
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    I read that Roman Harper has lost his starting job, if this is correct then i would assume he drops in the rankings. Any thoughts or info on this?

    Also what do you think of Sam Shields? Lots of tackles to start the year

    • Kevin Kumpf

      Kevin Kumpf says:
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      @Jack Full O’ Hate:

      These two questions are actually related in my mind. Harper is banged up, and is no sure thing to play on Sunday, but if he plays I assume he will be starting. Over the course of the season, Vaccaro will likely eat into both his and Malcolm Jenkins playing time, but for now I think the vets keep getting the higher snap counts.

      Which brings me to Shields, who I had a tough time omitting as my 40th DB in favor of Jenkins. I chose Jenkins due to the Harper health concerns, as well as a slighter better matchup of AZ over Cincy. But if Burnett can’t find the field, Shields is absolutely a solid DB play.

      • J-FOH

        J-FOH says:
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        @Kevin Kumpf: I’m playing ahead on Shields this year like I always do at DB. When I project ahead and look at current numbers I prefer guys that have no sexy stats (INT,FF,FR) and prefer solid tackles and PD’s every week. My assumption is the sexy stats will come when they come, but when it comes down to playing a guy, I go for the lunchbox type.

        • Kevin Kumpf

          Kevin Kumpf says:
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          @J-FOH:

          Yeah no issues at all with that plan. Tackles and PD’s are the way to go. If they want to go ahead and get a pick 6, that’s fine by me but I’m not relying on it.

          • Jack Full O' Hate says:
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            @Kevin Kumpf: exactly!….ba-bam

  5. Wallpaper Paterson says:
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    David or Brown at LB this week? I suppose David will get a lot of tackle opportunities but I do like Brown vs SD. I started David both of the first two weeks. Stay with him for Week 3?

    • Kevin Kumpf

      Kevin Kumpf says:
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      @Wallpaper Paterson:

      I’d stick with David for now, but Brown is certainly on the rise. Can’t go wrong with either, but the NE matchup for David is too nice to pass up.

  6. Principle Blackman says:
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    Do you prefer Charles Tillman or Harrison Smith ROS. Sacks, Forced Fumbles, Fum. Recoveries, and TFLs are all worth 2. INTs worth 3. And PDs worth 1. Thanks.

    • Kevin Kumpf

      Kevin Kumpf says:
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      @Principle Blackman:

      Both are great choices, but Smith is my DB1 ROS at this point. I have no issues with Tillman, but in tackle-heavy scoring systems like yours, Smith has more value.

    • Wallpaper Paterson says:
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      @Principle Blackman: Smith. He will score more fantasy points if he plays the whole season

  7. mcbainus says:
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    I play in a 16-team league with 4 IDP spots – DB, DL, LB and DB/DL/LB.

    I drafted Morgan Burnett and have been stubbornly holding on to him, plugging spot starts in. By the fact the likes of Jason McCourty and DeAngelo Hall are available on a weekly basis, should I hold on to Burnett at the expense of backup RB’s and WR’s that may have value in a league that is weighted pretty heavily towards RB/WR (5 yards per point instead of 10)?

    That being said, I have 3 RB and 3WR on my bench alone.

    Just wondering to what extent you would recommend keeping Burnett. It isn’t like he is leaps and bounds above everyone else if he comes back, right? But to the same extent, I hate dropping him.

    Just curious on your thoughts.

    Or, another way to ask, what is the threshold of waiver wire player that would have to become available for you to drop him, given the settings of my league?

    Thanks, as always, for your help.

    • Kevin Kumpf

      Kevin Kumpf says:
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      @mcbainus:

      As tough as it might be to swallow, I’d drop Burnett in this league format. The combination of 16 teams, RB/WR-heavy scoring as well as only 4 IDP slots makes it really impossible to waste a spot on an extra DB.

      I would stream my DB slot for now, and use the extra bench spot for another high upside OFlex type. Who knows, when you drop Burnett, another owner might drop someone you’d rather have to pick him up.

  8. The Don says:
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    KK need your wisdom. Bradford or Romo this week?

    • Kevin Kumpf

      Kevin Kumpf says:
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      @The Don:

      Gotta go Romo here. Bradford has arguably the better matchup, but I don’t trust him to perform better than Romo two weeks in a row.

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