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You ever get the feeling that things are too good to be true? Like that one time that hot girl from chem class Candice invited you over because she just couldn’t figure out how she was gonna survive that Algebra test and you thought to yourself ‘she has an ‘A’ in that class, no way she’s asking me over for a study session’.  So you dress up in your best Mossimo t-shirt, your cool bandana, your shell necklace, threw your jansport bag on your back and trudged over for a little ‘studying’. Then you got there and all of her friends were there, books out on the table. She had her hair in a messy bun while wearing her reading glasses and a gym shirt while everyone was arguing over what a polynomial was. There was no reason for you to think the situation was any more then what it looked like except for the fantasies racing around in your head telling you different. Well I’m here to tell you something very similar is going on with our freshly coifed friend Wes Welker and his fantasy outlook this year.  So follow me as I move on from my Candice fantasies and move onto why Welker will let you down for 2013 Fantasy Football…

Now when having discussions like this, it’s important to realize the angle of the article dangle and that it’s directly proportional to the heat of the ADP meat…or something.  Now I don’t really have a problem owning Wes in 2013 at the right price but I don’t think his current 61 ranking and WR23 via yahoo is worth the price of admission.  Welker’s entire value up to this point has been predicated on volume.  From 2007-2012, Welker averaged 9.9 targets a game with a career high in targets coming his last two years with them at 172 and 174.  From these last two years, he was able to produce 240 total receptions, 2,923 total yards and 15 touchdowns and was a staple as a low end WR1 in PPR formats during that span.  But that production was built into a role in that Pats passing attack.  For pun points, Wes was Brady’s dirty little slot and outside of Gronk/Hernandez, there was very few targets elsewhere for Tom to throw to.  During that stretch, the only wide outs Welker had to overcome for targets were the decaying remnants of players such as the wide receiver formerly known as Ochocinco, the forever young, never that good Deion Branch and last year’s attempt at Josh McDaniel trying to prove himself with Brandon Lloyd.  All these attempts could easily be deemed failures to date which would lead to a heavy target volume for Welker making sense.  But this offseason, Wes headed West and joined the Broncos.  A team with great young talent at the WR position in Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker who combined for 264 targets, 179 receptions, 2498 yards and 23 total touchdowns in 2012.  With that type of receiving talent available to Peyton Manning, Welker’s volume isn’t going to be high enough to produce in the range of where he’s going in most drafts.  He’ll be the third option in that offense and that drop from being closer to #1 in Pats country will hurt his production and consistency dramatically.  Considering players like Pierre Garcon, Cecil Shorts, Danario Alexander and, yes, even Decker are ranked behind him, the value for what Welker should bring to the table won’t get you any more turned on then finding the value for ‘y’ with Candace was for me…for me?  I mean, for my made up persona that loved how she smelled like lavender in Chem class…yeah, that’s it.

  1. Mike says:
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    Cam newton in the 3rd or RG3 in the 5th?
    Standard league
    Thx

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      RG3

  2. Brewtown says:
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    How do you see Welker affecting Thomas’ value? I’m expecting a little lower volume but maybe an uptick in big plays.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      He spreads the field in Denver. Probably see a YPC increase. Receptions stay close to same, a little less.

  3. Mike says:
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    Dez Bryant in 2nd rd or pick either Ridley or forte….
    Thanks!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Is there a round value associated with either Ridley or Forte?

  4. Adam says:
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    At sleeper defense u really like?
    Everyone will take SF and SEA early…want to pick DEF late

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Browns would be one. Tampa Bay another. I’m more likely to stream then anything, though.

  5. Bfeel says:
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    Keeper help -

    Pick 12th in a 12 team league (start 2rb, 3wr, 1te, 1flex, qb, k, de). .5 per reception.

    Can keep two of the following:

    S Jackson in round 1, R Bush in round 4, F Gore in round 4, T Gonzalez in round 8, A Luck in round 9. Note, to keep both Bush and Gore one would become a 3rd rounder.

    Thanks!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Bush & Luck

  6. mcBlunty says:
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    need 4 keepers from this group (for the 2 qbs i can trade 1)

    a luck
    c kapernick
    a foster
    j graham
    chris johnson
    alfred morris
    j maclin
    Mike Williams

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Foster/Graham/Morris/Luck

  7. Champ Kind says:
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    I know this doesn’t really follow the thread but I’m looking for some input. I am being tasked with Commish this year after the defending champ backed out last minute. Can I get some takes on stat categories/roster positions and how to set Defense? I am thinking about trying the default settings for offense but using individual defensive players instead of the traditional team settings. 10 team Yahoo! H2H. Thanks in advance.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      If you’re looking for info on IDP set up, I’d have you talk with our IDP guy on one of his posts:

      http://football.razzball.com/2013-lb-sleepers-and-busts-the-mychal-kendricks-experience

      Outside of that, I’m not really certain about the context of your question. Are you asking what stat categories to include? How many roster spots to have? What was your league like last year? What do the people who are playing in your league want? There’s no such thing as an optimal league set up except when 10 to 12 people say it’s optimal.

  8. Adam says:
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    Ridley or forte in the 2nd round or take Dez Bryant instead ….
    Thanks!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Are you Mike or are you Adam? Dez

  9. Goldschmidt On Her Chest says:
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    Is ridley seriously going in the 2nd rd? That’s nuts

  10. Goldschmidt On Her Chest says:
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    I asked a Danario question a few days ago and I appreciate your feed back. Reason I ask is I’m in a 10 team H2H 4 player keeper league. As of right now I’m keeping
    Kaepernick-11th rd
    A.Morris-10th rd
    Cruz-9th rd
    Foster-1st rd (9th pick overall)
    Danario would be a 12th rd keeper. But I’d have to let one of these guys go. With my first pick I could then get a Forte/s.jackson type if I chose to let Foster go. I would hate to lose danarios upside (as long as he stays healthy) for years to come just to hang onto foster for 1 more year(each year the player kept moves up 1 rd. So i could have danario for his career basically). Its a PPR league. Any input is appreciated. Thanks!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Iffy but if you could get S-Jax or Forte in the first by letting Foster go, I’d do that and keep Danario.

      • Goldschmidt On Her Chest says:
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        @Sky: yea kinda ballsy right? I’m just not high on foster this year.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          I’m with you, I just realize my bias on Foster might sway me more than others is all. It’s the route I’d go with SJax/Forte on the table, though.

  11. Big Magoo says:
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    Here are five stats concerning Welker from Matthew Berry’s 100 facts article (yes, I know – they’re still pretty relevant, nonetheless):

    4. Speaking of Welker, last season, he led the NFL in receptions and receiving yards when lined up in the slot.

    5. Last season, no quarterback completed a higher percentage — 71.7 percent, to be exact — of his passes to slot receivers than … Peyton Manning.

    6. From 2008 to 2010, the Indianapolis Colts and Peyton Manning ran 2,309 plays out of three-receiver sets.

    7. That was the most in the NFL during that time frame, 326 more plays than the second-place team.

    8. Last season, the Broncos ran 706 plays with three-receiver sets, third-most in the league.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      I’m not saying he’s going to be worthless but his price isn’t reasonable for the production he’ll put out. His catch rate has dropped dramatically over the last two years and I see him freeing up Decker/Thomas and not being as big of an offensive threat as people are drawing him up to be for fantasy purposes. If anything, it’s proof that Tamme couldn’t step up and be the guy in Denver last year so they knew they needed outside help to draw coverage away from their big two. I’d just rather draft Welker like he’ll catch 80 to 85 passes but he’s being drafted like he’s good for 90 to 95. Think it’s unreasonable, I’d rather have the red zone targets in that offense.

      • Big Magoo says:
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        @Sky: I understand. I’ve never been much of a Welker guy from a fantasy perspective (I play non-PPR leagues), but I don’t think that he’ll drop off too much in Denver. 90-95 for 1,050-1,100 and 6 scores is a pretty good bet. He’s one of those rare guys whose floor isn’t that far away from his ceiling. Safe pick with little to no upside. Still quite useful though, especially in PPR.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          So you’re on board that Decker catches under 70 passes this year then? I can’t get behind that unless he becomes a V-Jax/Jordy type, i.e. his YPC goes up by about 5. It’s not a 100% either/or in that scenario but for Welker to hit those numbers, they need to take away targets from two young – read future of the franchise – players. I just can’t draft Welker with that notion where he’s going. I’ll take him as a middle WR3 but not a low end WR2 in 12 team leagues.

          • Big Magoo says:
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            @Sky: I’d put the over/under on Decker’s reception total at 75. Brandon Stokely went 45-544-5 on 58 targets, and he was basically pulled out of retirement at the last minute. To say that ’12 Stokely is a shadow of the player that ’13 Welker is would be the understatement of the year. Double those #s (except for TDs – add one or two) and you have my Welker projection. Welker will take those slot targets as well as some from Dreessen, Tamme, and the RBs. Peyton had nobody to throw to outside of Thomas and Decker last year. That’s not the case in ’13.

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              Interesting, I still think Welker’s overvalued this year with where he’s going and would rather have Decker who’s going cheaper. This is one of those ‘see ya in December’ moments :)

              • Big Magoo says:
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                @Sky: Fair enough. I don’t think that we differ too much on him except for the receptions. He’ll catch 85+ without breaking a sweat. Peyton loves utilizing the slot receiver, and Welker is still one of the best.

                • Sky

                  Sky says:
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                  Yeah, could happen for sure and like I said in the article I don’t mind drafting him but I feel there’s more risk in drafting him then people are willing to accept. I have him at 85/1003/4 on the year but that’s as high as I could reasonably go and I felt I was being gracious with it.

  12. Matt says:
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    I’m in a 14 team keeper league. Im keeping megatron, gronk, David Wilson and luck. I am one of the few guys with a first round pick and I have spot 14, so I have back to back picks. I like my keepers cause they give me quality guys at each position. It looks like Brandon Marshall or Andre Johnson is gonna be there when I’m drafting. I want to take one of those guys and want to take a good back with my second pickl. Chris Johnson, Lamar miller, Chris ivory, Reggie bush and Stephen Jackson are all going to be there as well. Can you rank the backs from favorite to least? I like miller the most cause I’m worried about Jackson’s age. Also would it make sense to skip on a receiver and take 2 backs?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      I ranked those backs in my rankings…you already have Megatron, I don’t see a need for you to draft Marshall. Take two running backs.

    • btd says:
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      @Matt: Agreed, skip the WR and take 2 RBs. I’d go S-Jax and Bush personally.

  13. Psychedelic says:
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    In a half PPR dynasty is Rob Housler (ARI) a TE1 or are there just too many options on that offense for him to matter much?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      It doesn’t take much to be a TE1. Antonio Gates was TE12 last year. All that to say, it’s possible but I wouldn’t expect elite production.

  14. Psychedelic says:
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    Who is the handcuff for McFadden? I don’t think it’s Reece and Rashad Jennings is pretty terrible… Latavius Murray seems to be getting praise out of camp so far. Is he the best option right now until more info is available ?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Psychedelic: I don’t see why it isn’t Reece. He did nothing wrong with his time as lead back last year. That said, I could see a RBBC when DMC goes down between those three with the bulk going to Murray/Reece.

  15. Mike says:
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    1. Speaking of Welker, last season, he led the NFL in receptions and receiving yards when lined up in the slot.

    2. Last season, no quarterback completed a higher percentage — 71.7 percent, to be exact — of his passes to slot receivers than … Peyton Manning.

    3. From 2008 to 2010, the Indianapolis Colts and Peyton Manning ran 2,309 plays out of three-receiver sets.

    4. That was the most in the NFL during that time frame, 326 more plays than the second-place team.

    5. Last season, the Broncos ran 706 plays with three-receiver sets, third-most in the league.

    6. This offseason, Welker left the Patriots to join the Broncos.

    7. More Peyton: For all the talk of “noodle arm,” Manning completed 45.9 percent of throws more than 20 yards downfield. Only Robert Griffin III (with completions on 47.1 percent of such throws) was better.

    8. By comparison, from 2008 to 2010, Manning’s completion rate on throws more than 20 yards downfield was 31.6 percent.

    Yea I will be taking Welker in the 5th round

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Yes, I had most of the same information from ESPN copy and pasted here earlier as you can see above in the comments. As I said, Welker’s a volume play. I expect reduced volume. I’m not willing to draft Welker as my WR2 this year which is where he’s currently being priced. Think his numbers/production will be more of a WR3.

  16. appleTree says:
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    welker will be fine .. and his TDs could possibly be higher. manning loves tossing tds to the slot wr. id say welker is the best slot wr manning has ever had by far. look what he did with austin collie and dallas clark.. but this is all just talk.. we’ll see what happens.. its welker

    we should really be wondering about randall cobb!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Higher TDs? I doubt that. Agree he’s the best slot receiver Manning’s ever had. But that also means DT and Decker could easily be the best WRs he’s had as well for a tandem and now he has the best Wide Trio he’s ever had. I’m not saying there’s something wrong with Welker, I’m saying there’s something wrong with the valuation of him. He’s a WR3 in my book and people want him as a WR2, something I can’t get behind.

      Who’s going to steal targets from Cobb? He may not be the RZ target that Jordy/Jones are but that’s not his role. I don’t get the worry over him other then not wanting to spend a WR1 priced pick for a guy who finished as the 17th best wide out in PPR settings in 2012.

      • appleTree says:
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        @Sky: decker won’t get as many targets would be my bet. but i think the tds and yardage will be there.

        i just meant how awesome cobb should be this year.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Ah, gotcha RE: Cobb; I’m pretty high on him myself.

          I could see Decker’s receptions going down while his YPC going up along with TDs. Might behave as a Vincent Jackson/Jordy Nelson type for that offense. The main thing that needs to be thought of is long term value. Don’t want to alienate your young guys to feed what amounts to a WR rental for a SB push while Manning’s still upright. I have a hard time believing Welker pushes either guy out of the spot light but he’s going higher then Decker. I feel that’s a mistake.

  17. greg says:
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    Question: Im in a keeer league that uses auction draft ($200). I need to keep two of these three guys for the cost given…. who do I keep? (ppr league)

    Welker for $21
    Tony Gonzalez for $18
    Matt Stafford for $18

    I plan on keeping Megatron for $55.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      I’d keep Stafford and I guess Welker. Not really a good value on either Welker or Tony there.

    • Targaryen says:
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      @greg: I don’t think u should take Weller for 21$ throw him back in. I bet you can get him for about 13-16

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