LOGIN

You ever get the feeling that things are too good to be true? Like that one time that hot girl from chem class Candice invited you over because she just couldn’t figure out how she was gonna survive that Algebra test and you thought to yourself ‘she has an ‘A’ in that class, no way she’s asking me over for a study session’.  So you dress up in your best Mossimo t-shirt, your cool bandana, your shell necklace, threw your jansport bag on your back and trudged over for a little ‘studying’. Then you got there and all of her friends were there, books out on the table. She had her hair in a messy bun while wearing her reading glasses and a gym shirt while everyone was arguing over what a polynomial was. There was no reason for you to think the situation was any more then what it looked like except for the fantasies racing around in your head telling you different. Well I’m here to tell you something very similar is going on with our freshly coifed friend Wes Welker and his fantasy outlook this year.  So follow me as I move on from my Candice fantasies and move onto why Welker will let you down for 2013 Fantasy Football…

Now when having discussions like this, it’s important to realize the angle of the article dangle and that it’s directly proportional to the heat of the ADP meat…or something.  Now I don’t really have a problem owning Wes in 2013 at the right price but I don’t think his current 61 ranking and WR23 via yahoo is worth the price of admission.  Welker’s entire value up to this point has been predicated on volume.  From 2007-2012, Welker averaged 9.9 targets a game with a career high in targets coming his last two years with them at 172 and 174.  From these last two years, he was able to produce 240 total receptions, 2,923 total yards and 15 touchdowns and was a staple as a low end WR1 in PPR formats during that span.  But that production was built into a role in that Pats passing attack.  For pun points, Wes was Brady’s dirty little slot and outside of Gronk/Hernandez, there was very few targets elsewhere for Tom to throw to.  During that stretch, the only wide outs Welker had to overcome for targets were the decaying remnants of players such as the wide receiver formerly known as Ochocinco, the forever young, never that good Deion Branch and last year’s attempt at Josh McDaniel trying to prove himself with Brandon Lloyd.  All these attempts could easily be deemed failures to date which would lead to a heavy target volume for Welker making sense.  But this offseason, Wes headed West and joined the Broncos.  A team with great young talent at the WR position in Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker who combined for 264 targets, 179 receptions, 2498 yards and 23 total touchdowns in 2012.  With that type of receiving talent available to Peyton Manning, Welker’s volume isn’t going to be high enough to produce in the range of where he’s going in most drafts.  He’ll be the third option in that offense and that drop from being closer to #1 in Pats country will hurt his production and consistency dramatically.  Considering players like Pierre Garcon, Cecil Shorts, Danario Alexander and, yes, even Decker are ranked behind him, the value for what Welker should bring to the table won’t get you any more turned on then finding the value for ‘y’ with Candace was for me…for me?  I mean, for my made up persona that loved how she smelled like lavender in Chem class…yeah, that’s it.