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So I woke up this morning thinking to myself ‘man, mixing red bull, vodka and a box of Franzia was a bad idea.  And why am I covered in dijon mustard with socks on my hands?’  Ok, that was my first thought.  My second thought was ‘let’s get statistical with our Razzball readers and pun about a mathematical term while we’re at it’.  Quarterbacks have been a huge topic leading into the season, especially when it comes to draft strategy.  Many places are actually saying 2011 changed the way we draft in that it should become more common to take a QB early than to aim for a running back.  With that in the back of my mind, I thought it would be good to take a look at the deviation we experienced statistically between 2010 fantasy points and 2011 fantasy points with regards to the quarterback position.  Realize we don’t care about the names on the list, what we care about is the deviation between what being the number one quarterback for fantasy in 2010 was versus being number one in 2011, then the number 2, so on and so forth.  With that, let’s take a look at the results of my mad little statistical experiment.  Note I am using yahoo for my statistical analysis because our Razzball Commenter Leagues – which is still a thing if you want to start a league or sign up for one for some Razzball goodies – are utilizing them.  Oh and apologies if you’re trying to look at the chart below on a phone.  You’re gonna wanna wait till you get home to look at this:

So there is a lot to be culled from this list.  If we only look at total percentage increase, we are justified in thinking we had a major breakthrough in quarterback stats from 2010 to 2011 as the top 20 provided nearly a 7% increase in production between those two seasons.  However, I don’t know about you but I’m seeing some crazy stats from the top 5 versus the rest of the top 20.  As a whole the top 5 in 2011 outproduced their top 5 counterparts from 2010 by a whopping 26.34% margin.  That, my friends, is borderline earth shattering.  But what about the rest of the top twenty?!?  Don’t worry, person I made up to prove my point, we’re getting there.  The remainder of the 2011 top twenty were outplayed by their 2010 counterparts by a small percent at -1.93%.  So what does all this mean, you ask?  Does it mean you really need to have a top 5 quarterback in 2012 to be successful?  In my opinion it would have to be no.  Go look at the players in the top 5 from each year.  Of them, only two are repeat successes: Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady.  That lack of consistency in being able to nail down who is going to succeed from one year to the next actually should increase the mindset that aiming for a bargain quarterback is much better than targeting a ‘top tier’ one.  Producing this list also helped me reaffirm my 2012 fantasy football rankings when it came to quarterbacks.  While we can’t find the mean of a quarterback’s ability from two seasons alone, we can find that there’s enough deviation from season to season to not overspend on a position that produces so much fantasy talent.

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  1. Steve says:
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    Good morning Sky,

    I am ready for football! 10 team dynasty league. I have the 2nd overall pick. I thought I’d get Richardson, well, I won’t. My plan was to draft him and shop one of my other backs for a WR, because I have Foster, McCoy, Mathews and “only” Fitz/B-Marsh/Torrey as my Receivers.

    Now the question is, do I go for Martin, who does look great or should I pick Luck with Vick as my starter and Freeman the backup? I have the feeling Luck would be smarter.

    Thank you, coz I can’t decide except to flip a coin maybe…

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      My stance on dynasty is QBs have a longer career arc than RB so I’d personally go Luck there. Just think back to 1998 when Peyton Manning went 1st and Fred Taylor went 9th. Sure Fred had some good years but Peyton is still playing. Of course, let’s forget Ryan Leaf was the 2nd pick while we’re at it…

      • Steve says:
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        @Sky, I feel this way, too. Probably the smart pick. Griffin is available as well, of course, but I think one running QB is enough and actually, Luck isn’t that bad either to scramble for a couple of touchdowns.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Yeah, I truly think RG3 has the better season this year but Luck has the largest potential between the two. If Freeman bounces back you’ve got an embarrassment of riches there.

  2. trick dad says:
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    hey there, is doc still on the site?
    long time reader but havent checked in a while. thanks!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Hey, he moved on back in May and I took over. Nice to meet you :)

  3. David_KOA says:
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    @Sky,
    Going off of yesterday’s article and the news about Mike Wallace. Are you going to be adjusting Big Ben’s passing numbers & TD’s? I don’t think a drastic change should take place. That being said,if Wallace is to pull a Vincent Jackson and miss regular season action. It will impact Big Ben’s numbers.

    Also will you be doing adjustment to any of your rankings as the summer progress? I see you still have MJD as your number five overall player with his same projections. With the news coming out(contract/holdout) do you still feel confident placing him in your top five?

    Is Beanie Wells still your number 22 RB off the board? Or is he going to be adjusted due to the recent news about his health?

    Those are just a few that stand out any more could be ask.

    I was just wondering due to, I am sure you have readers that will be using these rankings and have drafts coming up very soon or coming weeks.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Yeah, this is the sticky part: we don’t know if any of these issues carry forward. Both holdouts could be resolved tomorrow or not at all so I don’t really want to mess with projections that way. Mike Wallace is still projected 29th while MJD is projected 7th according to yahoo. Ben has done what I have him projected for in the past. Even without Wallace, Ben will produce close enough to what I have listed that I’m not all that worried.

      Unless we know a person will miss an extensive amount of time due to injury or suspension (like I did with Kenny Britt), we can’t really blow up rankings. That’s the difficulty of it all. Even with his health scares, Beanie is ranked appropriately given what he can do. Unless he goes on the PUP list before the season starts, I can’t justify ranking him any lower at this time.

  4. David_KOA says:
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    @Sky,
    Interesting way to approach it.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Yeah, I use our baseball side as a guide on how best to approach our rankings process.

  5. Hot Sauce says:
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    I have been lucky so far in my mocks where I have been at the back end of the first round, typically getting 2 top 10 running backs. I personally have been more drawn to RB early since it is a murky year at that position, but I can see the argument for just looking at another position. I have always been the guy that uses almost every pick rounds 7-10 selecting running backs and just throwing them up against the wall and hoping 1 or 2 stick (become top 20 backs). This year though it is going to be even harder to turn profit there I think. Might as well go after the WR depth in these rounds and get some certainty at RB in the early rounds (Charles, FJax, Turner, Bradshaw, etc. have all been slipping in ADP in my opinion).

    Anyways, I am about to make a trade where I will be left with probably having to start Reggie Wayne in a 10-team PPR league that starts 3 WR. Do you think I can rely on him having some better numbers with an actual QB throwing his way? Or am I wrong for counting on him to be an every week starter in this format?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Can’t argue your logic on draft strategy, sounds solid.

      I’m not a huge Reggie Wayne fan this year even with the change in QB. It’s an age factor for me and I don’t feel he returns top 30 WR numbers this year.

    • David_KOA says:
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      @Hot Sauce & Sky,
      Even with the backup J.V. QB’s throwing Reggie Wayne the football last year. He finished as the 24th best WR(fantasy) in PPR formats.

      He is going to see an upgrade in the QB spot, still the WR1 & the Colts should be tossing the rock a lot this year.

      He is a excellent WR3/Flex option in this format and depending on your other skill positions can hold the fort down as a WR2 in 2012.

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