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If you were to define the 2016 fantasy football season in one sentence, I challenge you to do better than this: Jay Ajayi has more rushing yards in the last two weeks than Todd Gurley has all season. It has been that bad, and that sentence describes both how surprisingly good Ajayi has been the last two weeks and how disappointing Todd Gurley has been all year. It’s tough to say if those two backs will continue going in different directions, but they are currently following the same paths as their respective offenses. The Rams aren’t giving Gurley any space, while the Dolphins, with their front five finally healthy and playing together, are dropping bodies for Ajayi. Ajayi’s stock has never been higher, now that he is officially the top man in Miami. Which brings us to…

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faab-davante

FAAB waiver wire acquisitions time. These recommendations are ghoulish. Ghastly even. I hope you read my post from last week, because it was funny. I hope you did NOT follow the advice I was giving regarding Jay Ajayi because it was terrible. You might even say it was a disaster (believe me). It’s like a skeleton in my closet. I was lukewarm on Ajayi and I basically told a reader not to drop Isaiah Crowell for him, because it would be a “lateral move”. Yeah not so much. Well, we know he won’t continue to be that good. I’ve been led to believe 200 yard rushing games are rare. This week we  will consider Davante Adams, Cordarrelle Patterson, Chris Thompson and Alfred Blue, among others…

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Oct 16, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles (25) carries the ball against the Oakland Raiders during the second quarter at Oakland Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Well, we all saw that coming. We all knew the Miami Dolphins were going to smash the Pittsburgh Steelers, and we all knew that they were going to do so by riding Jay Ajayi and his 204 rushing yards and two touchdowns. We all knew that, even with Arian Foster coming back, Ajayi would get 25 carries and, oh, you know, rattle off 8.2 YPC on the day. We all knew Jay Ajayi, sent down from above by his Heavenly father to be the savior of the Dolphins in the fifth round of the NFL draft last year, was going to get more touches than any running back not named Terrance West, Ezekiel Elliott, Lamar Miller, or Melvin Gordon.

And, of course, we all knew that Spencer Ware was going to get 26 touches on 40 snaps to Jamaal Charles’s 11 on 15. This was the first time all year that many Jamaal Charles owners started him, as he was finally considered healthy enough for a full workload. So, of course, Ware dominated the snaps and touches. But we all knew that was going to happen. That’s what makes this so easy!

Now, if you are this far into the article and haven’t been able to detect the sarcasm, please stop reading. We cannot help you here. You have bigger problems than fantasy football, and you will not find the answers here. You will likely only find more questions and a Simpsons referenced forced into here somewhere (this one doesn’t count).

For the rest of you, we have work to do. This was another strange week for running backs, as I so subtly alluded to above, and we have a number of question marks at running back going forward.

And now, to the report…

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NFL: Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

If you have been following our weekly Handcuff Reports and reading them carefully (as I am sure you have been), you may have noticed this little gem that I wrote last week:

“After pass-catcher Ka’Deem Carey went down with a hamstring injury, Jordan Howard entered the game and actually looked pretty good. If Langford continues to struggle, look for Howard to get some more chances. If you are in a deep league, add Howard to your watch list.”

Well, I hope you skipped the watch list and went right to adding him on waivers. And if you did, if you were the person in your league who pulled the early trigger on Jordan Howard thanks to reading this article, then you had a really good Monday. You probably woke up on Monday morning, checked your league news and your team (I am assuming here that no one bothered to watch most of that beatdown), and saw the Jeremy Langford injury news. Then you probably took a sip of your coffee, sat back, smiled, looked at the rest of the teams in your league and said:

I’ma be all right. I’m straight… Sergio gonna be fine! F*ck a recession… I own 21 Cookaroos. Ya’ll don’t own one Cookaroo. Not one… Ya’ll are f*cked. Ya’ll are f*******cked!

Okay, now that we got the world’s longest Get Him to the Greek reference out of the way, let’s get back to business. Jeremy Langford left this week’s game against the Cowboys early and did not return, and it has since been reported that he has a severe high ankle sprain and could miss up to six weeks. After Langford left the game, Jordan Howard rushed for 45 yards on nine carries (5 YPC) and added four catches for 47 yards. With the aforementioned Ka’Deem Carey also nursing an injury of his own, Jordan Howard could be in for a full workload for the next six weeks. And if he has success in Langford’s absence, he could very well take the starting job or turn this situation into a timeshare. Even if Carey comes back quickly, he will be the receiving back on passing downs, while Howard should get the start and the majority of the touches. Jordan Howard is going to be one of the most-added players on waivers this week, so get your claims in before Thursday morning. But, alas, this is the Handcuff Report and not just the Jordan Howard report, so let’s get to the rest of the league!

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Well, that got ugly fast. And I’m not just talking about this week’s Jaguars – Chargers game. That was an entirely different level of ugly. This week is why so many people have been adopting the zero RB strategy when drafting. They don’t want to risk taking a running back early because of the chance of injury, and they know they will be able to watch the waiver wire and read my handcuff report in order to get a running back or two during the season. If you play fantasy football, there is a good chance one of your running backs got hurt this week. If you drafted Adrian Peterson around the 2nd round or Danny Woodhead or Ameer Abdullah a few rounds later, this was not your week. If you went zero RB or waited a bit too long for running backs like I did in a few of my leagues, this is the week you were waiting for. As far as we know right now, though, Woodhead is the only back to go down who is definitely out for the year. The other two question marks are AP and Abdullah. Neither has a timetable for their return right now. Everyone else should be back in a couple weeks.

Anyway, let’s get to it… 

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For years I’ve stated the Fantasy Football is 60% luck. And no Andrews. In the past few years that number has dropped to about 50%, but it really doesn’t matter. The point is massive amount of luck goes into fantasy football, because the value of the draft is immensely greater than that of other sports. Go ahead…try winning your league without your 1st round pick. Sure, it’s possible, but you’re also in deep trouble if they go down early (see: Jordy Nelson owners in 2015). There are so many things that are out of your hands, even beyond the draft. Take WR, for instance. The most talented WR may not have much fantasy relevance, because their production is fully tethered to the talent of the QB. There are few other positions anywhere in fantasy sports that are so driven by the production of another person. Baseball? It’s a 1 vs. 1 sport, essentially. Basketball? Even if everyone else is firing up bricks faster than a Habitat for Humanity build, someone can start cooking and shoot 70% for a week and carry your team. Football? I mean, the RB needs a good line, but they can overcome (see: Todd Gurley in 2015). WR? Nope…you need a QB. That is unless you’re Josh Gordon back in 2013. Goodness.

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afc-south

Despite being the urinal puck of the NFL last season, the AFC South is overflowing with fantasy goodness for 2016. Jump into my fantasy van (Hint: It has no windows) and I’ll guide you through the land of elite wide receivers and shiny new quarterbacks. Allow Honcho – your new and most favorite fantasy football bestie to help you navigate the numerous story lines that make up one of the most fantasy rich divisions in football. Can Andrew Luck keep his spleen in one piece this season? Will Blake Bortles remember he’s Blake Bortles or will he continue his ascent up the QB ladder? Can Marcus Mariota deliver through the air? If so, who will he throw to? Finally, is $72 million enough to convince you that Brock Osweiler actually knows what he’s doing? The suspense is too much! Let’s get started. As always, we’ll review the teams in order of predicted finish.

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Well hello again, all of my lovelies!  Did you miss me?  I am sorry that I had to abandon you halfway through your abysmal, injury-plagued seasons last year, but it seems that my work as a Fantasy Royalty called me away for many an Ambassador duties.  Not really, I was basically traveling the globe and the deepest, darkest reaches of the planet to find some kind of Medicine Man or Voodoo Priestess to lift this Black Widow Curse from me, to no avail.  But, I digress.  How are you all holding up?  I know you missed me, it’s okay, you don’t have to admit it (I can read your thoughts.)  So, anyhoo, here we are again.  The 2016 NFL season is closer than that stalker who is STILL living in my bushes outside (I need to start charging that creeper rent).  I promise you, I won’t leave you again this season, as long as you stick with me.  So, to rekindle all the love we shared and the memories we’ve made over the years, let’s spend a little time together today, get to know one another again, turn the lights down low, and turn on the Fantasy lovin’ with this little preseason edition of Hit it or Quit it…

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2016 Rankings: Top-200 (Standard) | Top-200 (Half-PPR) | Top-200 (PPR) | QBRB (Standard) | RB (Half-PPR)RB (PPR) | WR (Standard) | WR (Half-PPR)WR (PPR) | TE (Standard) | TE (Half-PPR)TE (PPR) | K | DST

Dynasty Rankings: Top-150 | QB | RB | WR | TE | Top-50 Rookies

Year Accuracy Rank High Low Percentile
2015 57.5% 22 out of 123 59.9% 51.6% Top 20%
2014 58.1% 31 out of 125 60.7% 50.6% Top 25%

And thus, we now closing down the rankings portion of the preseason. Sorta. (Don’t worry, the rankings will be updated whenever news or personal urge demands it.) In regards to the standard and PPR rankings, yes, we’re done, but unlike past years, I’ll be also doing position by position rankings for Half-PPR leagues starting today with the Top-200 Overall. It’s been a long and enduring process in whole, sure, but one that didn’t involve any Ryan Mathews or Melvin Gordon drama (WHEW!), so I proclaim this a resounding success. And just as long as we are busy consuming all this information, can we at least try to make an edible version of these rankings? With bacon? Bacon rankings brah, think about it… Anyhow, I prefer the Half-PPR format the most, and reflect this opinion in our yearly RCL leagues. I just feel the format balances the best of two worlds, much like your mom’s shirt. Wow. That was a next level “yo momma” right there. I know, I know… we only give you the best here at Razzball. The best! Let’s just wrap this up and go to the final installment of the Overall 2016 Rankings… (with our position Half-PPR Rankings to be released this week!)

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Welcome to the second installment of the “Sleepers, Breakouts and Busts” series!

For almost the past two weeks, I have been “off the grid” on a cruise to Alaska, and then into the mainland, in areas like Ketchikan, Denali and Juneau, so I apologize that I couldn’t get these out sooner, but I will have the other positions as out as soon as I can. Oh, and Alaska is neat. Hard to go to sleep at 10pm when it still looks like 2pm though.

Running Backs are a position like no other. Position strategy changes from year to year, from wanting as many running backs as we can get our hands on, to not drafting any in the first few rounds (the Zero RB theory). More than any other position, there are a ton of busts year to year, so we’re constantly finding new ways to approach the position and to eliminate all possibilities of drafting last year’s Eddie Lacy.

We want to be extra cautious when selecting them. Not that Quarterbacks are not important per se, but we can be a little braver when drafting them over HB’s. Game flow, schedules, and talent all go into the perfect back. More so in game flow; we want the most touches possible, and those who do find themselves with a very healthy workload are consistently finding themselves at the top come January.

We get very frustrated when they under-perform. Guys like Eddie Lacy, C.J. Anderson, Melvin Gordon, and DeMarco Murray, all caused ourselves to throw something at another thing (good joke Zach). More often than not, the wrong HB will cause our teams to crash and burn, much more so than any of the other positions. However one of the many reasons why many are switching to avoiding backs totally in the first few rounds is due to some diamonds in the rough on the waiver wires come October-December. But it is a high risk to bank on.

Jay’s rankings for the HB position for both Standard leagues and PPR have been released, in case you missed it.

Running Backs are my favorite, and constantly, they’re the position that defines my team, and a lot of the championship winning teams. Most owners who brought home hardware most likely had one of the three: David Johnson, Todd Gurley or Devonta Freeman.

And what do they have in common? In August many owners weren’t drafting them. And here are some you shouldn’t sleep on in 2016…

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Welcome to the start of the NFL Season, the Draft!

Believe it or not, the process leading up to the NFL Draft started last preseason, when all of the team scouts gathered to share the plan for collegiate scouting all across the country. They looked at offensive tackles, inside linebackers, and each and every special teams player to formulate an idea for how their team should attack the draft based only on a big board, an entire list of the top prospects of the country. Next, back at their headquarters, teams missed the playoffs, won the Super Bowl, had injuries, lacked certain depth at certain positions, players performed great, players failed to live up to potential, and everything else happened during the course of the regular season. Scouts, the front office, and the coaching staff have met before the pro days, scouting combines, and other individual training sessions, and have fully formulated a answer to the most crucial question: “team needs or individual talent?”.

Teams always approach the draft differently. However, specific positions have to be addressed in the draft, but sometimes, a player might just have so much sheer talent you can’t afford to let them pass. One example could be what the Patriots did a couple years ago. They drafted Jimmy Garoppolo. One might think to themselves “Oh yeah, quarterback is a pressing need in the first few rounds when you have a such lack of talent at the position”. However, Belichick and company saw something in the young thrower and decided that individual talent trumped team needs, and they could address it in the later rounds.

Below, I will make the decision in a mock draft of what teams I believe will take picks based on team needs, and then individual talent. Let’s get to it!

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With as many injuries as we saw in Week 14, with Eifert, J-Stew, Olsen, Dalton, Yeldon, Rawls, V-Jax and Blount to name a few, the teams that made it through to their league’s semi-final round (the teams that actually followed my advice of course) are going to need some help. And of course, I’m here to wipe away the tears and tell you everything is going to be Okay. Even this late in the season, there is still plenty of players that could still help your team go all the way and win me… I mean, you money! So, let’s get to it!

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