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Greetings! Forgive me I'm not up to date on current sporting events, for Twitter, whom I fully depend on for all news and information, locked my account for a solid 24 hours! Any Quarterbacks get hurt? Did the Bills announce a starter? My life is meaningless without Twitter and the Elder Gods are known to punish me from time to time, usually when I'm riding high, basking in the glory of some incredible accomplishment, like the time I demoralized the Hilton sisters in a game of naked Twister. By demoralized, I mean that I gave both of them the profound type of hickory sticking that would make even the great Ray-J smile upon me like a proud father. Matter of fact, he was there filming it. Sorry, I'm rambling again, reminiscing about the heroic years that were my youth. But seriously, I haven't been without Twitter for this long since the last time Sky locked me in his basement. Yes, Sky, I know: It puts the lotion on the skin! Let's talk quarterbacks, shall we? I am Tehol Beddict, and this is, Disgrace/Delight! Take heed!
A long time ago (about a year) in a galaxy (Razzball) far, far way... Guess who's back, back again. The Stats Machine's back, tell a friend. Guess who's back. Guess who's back. Guess who's back. Guess who's back. Unlike most sequels that barely measure up to the original, the first two Godfather movies excluded, the second coming of the Stats Machine looks to build on a successful model, expanding and even deepening an already superb, numbers-driven effort. For those whom are unaware of, or need a refresher on the origin of the Stats Machine (TSM), you can find that here. Take me on in the Razzball Commenter Leagues here!
Weighing risk versus upside when it comes to drafting a player is one of the most significant ways that value is determined.  The most obvious forms of risk are injury risk and age risk but we could also consider off the field concerns, situation risk (bad team, bad scheme fit), and playing time risk (competition at position) among other types of risk.  This series of posts will aim to shed some light on who the more risky players are and what you should do about it. I'll start the series by focusing on the running back position and attempting to shed some light on how risk changes as the draft proceeds.  I'll demonstrate which range (or tier) of running backs had the most risk as measured by their 2014 year end performances relative to their draft position.  Later posts will focus on age and injury related risks and make some suggestions as to which early round players might be overrated this year due to those concerns. Play fantasy football against me in the Razzball Commenter Leagues here!
In my last post, The Legend of the Bid Button, and the first in this series, I examined and explained my strategy for approaching auction drafts. The key stat that I rely upon is "points per dollar" (PPD). How many fantasy points a player is expected to get me for each auction dollar I spend on him. If you have not read that post, please take ten minutes and do so. For those that have already done so and are back for round two, welcome back. While we have ten minutes to kill as we wait for everyone else to catch up, here is a link to a sub-five minute speed run of Super Mario Brothers. Feel free to watch it twice. I know these guys use tools to help accomplish this, but as someone who played this game back when it first came out, this is still pretty awesome. Ok, now let's get back to our regularly scheduled programming. I'd like to take a look back at last season's PPD heroes and zeros...
What a propaganda piece that Vine of 2014 C.J. Spiller is.  For one thing, it could give the impression the result of the play was a TD.  It wasn't, in fact he scored zero rushing TDs last year.  Instead it was his last snap of 2014.  Yes, that's the play he was injured on.  This sums up why he must be one of the more frustrating running backs to own (I can't say, I've never owned him).  There is new optimism for him because he has left the Bills for the Saints and with that move comes some hope that he will be utilized correctly as a committee back who can make plays in space.  In general the fantasy powers that be are ranking him about right -- he's the 23rd RB in FantasyPros ECR (expert consensus rankings).  I think many folks rank him in the 24-30 range so the bump to 23rd comes from those experts ranking him in the 15-20 range and that's too high for me.  This post will explain why.
Jay's 2015 RankingsTop-200 | Top-200 (PPR) | Top-200 (Half-PPR) | QB | RB | RB (PPR)WR | WR (PPR) | TE | TE (PPR) | K | DST | Rookies | Kevin's 2015 IDP RankingsTop-100 | DL | DB | LB And thus, we now close down the rankings portion of the preseason. (But don't worried, the rankings will be updated every week until the beginning of the season.) It's been a long and enduring process, but one that didn't involve any Ryan Mathews drama, so I proclaim this a resounding success. Unfortunately, the format in which we're used to consuming these rankings as pretty little embeded tables from FantasyPros isn't available to us, as they don't provide the tools to publish our Half-PPR Rankings to any site. We also don't have the Back to the Future hoverboards, so I'm willing to overlook this technological oversight. But just as long as we are consuming, can we at least try to make an edible version of these rankings? With bacon? Bacon rankings bro, think about it... Anyhow, it's a shame we don't get the pretty presentation here, as I prefer the Half-PPR format the most. I just feel the format balances the best of two worlds, much like your mom's shirt. Wow. That was next level right there. Let's just wrap this up and go to the rankings...
thestats The 2014 fantasy football season is over Johnny. It's over!
So now let's take a few moments to talk about the players that The Stats Machine has a hard on for.  I'm not sure I like the way that came out, so I'm going to rephrase it. Let's take a few moments to talk about the players that get The Stats Machine's bits and bytes on information overload. Without further ado-do...
[Jay's Note: The Official 2015 Razzball Fantasy Football Rankings will come out in several months, but Michael has been awesome enough to give you guys a taste of how things stand right now. Way too early? Sure. Way too hot? Yes! Early AND hot folks... just like my love life.] 2014 was an interesting fantasy football year, wasn't it?  It was the year of the rookie receiver, as Odell Beckham, Jr., Kelvin Benjamin, Mike Evans, Sammy Watkins and more took the league by storm.  There were studs being studs, as well as studs being duds.  The zero-running back strategy was implemented, and well, didn't work out that well for most people. 2015 is going to be even more of an interesting year, as draft strategies are sure to change for people.  While it's way too early in the fantasy offseason to rank players, we figured what the heck, we may as well have some fun with it. That being said, I did rank certain players whose futures are unsure (Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch) just because as of now, there is no news about what will happen. Don't worry, that'll change with updated rankings in the upcoming months...
I know, I need a bath now too. Here it is, week 17. The final slate of games and it's actually a full one; no TNF or MNF or TNF on SN where the 'S' is for 'Saturday' which they can't use because that's for 'Sunday Night Football'. Yup, 16 games ripe with intrigue and I lead off with talking Colin Kaepernick. I guess my new year's resolution is to lose readers. WELP. I know it's hard to get with the idea of this. Honestly, it's hard to feel comfortable making the call for me too but here I am looking back on why I liked Russell Wilson last week and nothing has changed about the why. Both are QBs who can run and Arizona rarely leaves a spy on the backfield to stop that from happening and don't look now but Kap has now rushed for over 40 yards in back to back games and rushed at least 7 times. Methinks the O-Co finally figured out that a Colin stuck in the pocket is a Colin wasted. Not like crunk wasted, more like 'not used correctly' wasted. It's been a trying time for his seasonal owners. Trust me, I know, I suffered through him in one in a two QB league. Guess what? I picked up Kyle Orton and he never saw the light of day again for my team. But this is probably a Harbaugh swan song and I think he goes out and lets his guys do what they do and what Colin can do is run as showcased last week when he racked up 7/151/1 on the ground on his way to a 31.7 DK fantasy point night. What was the passing line you ask? Ehhhh...let's not talk about that. The point is, his rushing game was worth 24.1 alone. I can't say he'll replicate but for a GPP go, I'm about to pop a Kap in dat and he has a cheap pairing partner that will also go under the radar...what, I ain't tellin you now. This is the epic last DK post for fantasy football of the year, I'm gonna make you suffer. So strap in - or strap on, we won't judge you - as we slide through this final go. So with no further ado, here it is: my final hot take on 2014 fantasy football DK slate... New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 20 team league of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It lets us know that you care!
Jay's updated his Week 16 Rankings for tonight's games: the Eagles vs. Washington, and Chargers vs. 49ers. Check them out here! It's fantasy championship week.  I hope that you have made it to your respective fantasy finals, and that you're in line to win major candy bars with a victory this weekend.  With the holidays next week, there won't be a start and sit article for Week 17.  However, as the offseason approaches, there will still be plenty to read on the site, and within the coming weeks, I'll have a way-too-early top 100 for 2015 posted on the site and numerous other strategy, draft and other articles to hold you over. Let's get to it, shall we?
Let me begin by thanking all of you for reading this drivel I produce on a weekly basis. Hopefully you've found it helpful, informative, and most of all, put my suggestions here to good use.  Throughout the season so many handcuffs have found their way into starting roles and excelled. Some on a one week fill in, but others took the job and ran with it. We salute you graduated handcuffs. Thanks for making the draft meaningless. Just kidding, but seriously who would you rather have right now, Jimmy Graham or Justin Forsett? LeSean McCoy or Jeremy Hill? You don't need to answer, the right choice is obvious. It just goes to show how increasingly viable the handcuff stash option is. The beginning of next year pundits, peers, and perts will be lined up by the dozen to tell you handcuffs are a waste of roster spot. To them I say this: if you make a costly investment in a running back, does it really hurt to buy an insurance policy? You would on a car, house, or collection of Star Wars commemorative plates. Right? What you don't own any Star Wars commemorative plates? More of a Star Trek guy eh? What? You don't own any commemorative plates! What do you eat your hot pockets on?
After a disaster of a suggestion last week in Marion Grice, I'm looking to a couple of familiar names and faces this week. Both Andre Williams and Latavius Murray have been featured here before and will be again today. When it comes to handcuffs you sort of hit a point where there are only so many usable options left. Though I suppose Kerwynn Williams' breakout does fly in the face of that previous statement. The point is we know the players now, and if you're digging through handcuffs it's because you need to use them for playoff match ups. So good luck with that! To wrap this up it's been a great year, and the constant game of musical chairs amongst the starters at the running back position have kept me mighty busy. Hopefully my advice led you to a few victories this season, good luck in the playoffs! Note: Don’t forget to come visit me on the new Razzball Fantasy Soccer home everyday of the week. Smokey and I have leagues registering now. If you’re not familiar with the format, NBD, relax, you got us. Smokey and I are giving you the best Fantasy Premier League coverage out there. If you haven’t tried fantasy EPL, you’re missing out. So sign up and use us as your guide.