When is it time to officially Stop Drafting Travis Kelce?

No, this analysis isn’t all about Travis Kelce, but it basically is since we know we are all thinking it. If you have been reading this series before for running back (click here for RB article) and wide receivers (click here for WR article) you know the drill.

1. The years sampled were 2011-2020 for the tight end position only
2. The scoring format used for this analysis is full PPR
3. The analysis benchmark we will be discussing today is 50 targets. Every tight end ages 21-37 had to have at least 50 targets to qualify
4. When conducting the analysis, it was important to have a baseline for targets as many tight ends who don’t make it typically only play 3-4 years in their early 20s…..yada yada yada we used the same veribage from the previous articles so go check them out. 

Tight End Age Analysis

Like we always promise we will give you the high-level data first and you can take it for what it is worth. The first chart will includes the following:

Age – The tight end (TE) age for that season
Total TEs – Total tight ends (TE) who played at that age over that past 10 years
Total TEs 50 – The number of tight ends who hit 50 targets in a season
% who hit 50 – This is the percentage of tight ends who played at that age who received 50 or more targets in that season at that age
Total Points and PPG – These are the points and PPG in full PPR that these tight ends had at that age on average who hit 50 targets in a season

AGE Total TEs Total TEs 50 % who hit 50 Average of Points Average of PPG
21 9 1 11.10% 94.7 5.9
22 43 11 25.60% 132.1 9
23 116 21 18.10% 125.9 9.1
24 163 27 16.60% 122.3 8.5
25 145 42 29.00% 142.3 10
26 139 31 22.30% 145.9 9.9
27 106 31 29.20% 150.4 10
28 88 27 30.70% 140.3 9.5
29 76 21 27.60% 141.8 9.5
30 52 14 26.90% 163 10.6
31 41 15 36.60% 158.2 10.4
32 25 11 44.00% 135.9 9.4
33 19 9 47.40% 137.2 8.7
34 13 5 38.50% 145.2 9.8
35 8 4 50.00% 164 11.3
36 3 2 66.70% 190.9 13
37 4 4 100.00% 143.9 9

Please, blog, may I have some more?

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B_Don and Donkey Teeth are back to discuss DT’s recent column where he ranked his top 10 rookies for 2021. Listen to the man himself explain his rankings and fend off questions from B_Don. Find out which of the rookies B_Don convinces Donkey to change his ranking on due to some historic data. 

The RazzBowl is right around the corner as well and the guys give you a couple hints on how to get in and also some potential ways to start playing for your entry next year. If you haven’t registered for your chance to enter the RazzBowl, you can do so here

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Did everyone catch the season finale of Naked and Afraid XL last night? Spoiler alert: they were all still naked on day 60, but more hungry than afraid. Seven adult humans rationing scraps of armadillo meat, what a way to live! I know exactly how the competitors must have felt. Each time I compose a new set of fantasy rankings I like to post them over on the Fantasy Football subreddit to get some feedback and constructive criticism from the knowledgeable masses over there. Many times I’m forced to reconsider my thought processes. Other times I’m left feeling lonely and naked, without even a morsel of armadillo fat to soothe my soul. But the show must go on. Lists must be compiled and players must be ordered and reordered based only on shirtless pics and/or shirtless TikTok videos. Anyway, here’s my top 10 wide receivers for 2021 PPR fantasy football with projections:

Find all 2021 Positional Rankings here.

*Note: These rankings are geared toward half PPR scoring. Projections provided in this season’s rankings are NOT my own, they come from Rudy Gamble’s World Renowned 2021 Fantasy Football Projections. These preseason projections are available free of charge, while Rudy’s in season weekly projection subscription is currently available until July 31st at an early bird discounted price of only $17.99 for the entire season! These are the same weekly projections which have won Rudy Gamble the FantasyPros designation of “Best Bold Ranker” for the years 2017-2019 (and likely 2020!). 

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As I drove by KFC earlier this week I was reminded that I still need to watch the Lifetime Original about Colonel Sanders, A Recipe for Seduction, starring Mario Lopez. Colonel Sanders got me to thinking about how I wanted to sneak Miles Sanders into my top 10 running back rankings this preseason. Then a squirrel ran by and I chased it around for 30 minutes. Later that night I sat down to compose my 2021 running back rankings with both Mario Lopez and Miles Sanders as a distant memory. As much as I wanted to squeeze them into the list below, both Mario Lopez and Miles Sanders narrowly missed the top 10 cut. Anyway, here’s my top 10 running backs for 2021 PPR fantasy football with projections:

Find all 2021 Positional Rankings here.

*Note: These rankings are geared toward half PPR scoring. Projections provided in this season’s rankings are NOT my own, they come from Rudy Gamble’s World Renowned 2021 Fantasy Football Projections. These preseason projections are available free of charge, while Rudy’s in season weekly projection subscription is currently available until July 31st at an early bird discounted price of only $17.99 for the entire season! These are the same weekly projections which have won Rudy Gamble the FantasyPros designation of “Best Bold Ranker” for the years 2017-2019 (and likely 2020!). 

Please, blog, may I have some more?

What is up everybody? It’s time for your favorite article of the year: the one where I rank players and then tell you that the order doesn’t matter. It’s like ordering from McDonalds — you’ll never get what you order! But unlike that McMuffin in your tummy, I want to ease your pains and make you feel calmer about your fantasy football endeavor. So! Grab your favorite beverage — I’ll wait! — and meet me after the jump, where I’ll discuss my process and walk you through how I’m ranking players and drafting in 2021. 

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At What Age Should You Fade A Running Back in Fantasy?

 

The previous intro worked so well for the wide receiver age analysis article we decided to use it again. 

Whether it is dynasty or redraft understanding when the cliff typically comes for a fantasy asset is key to staying ahead of the game. What we did was review the last 10 seasons of running back production by age to see when the drop off comes for the position. A couple key nuggets that you need to know before we get started.

  1. The years sampled were 2011-2020 for the running back position only
  2. The analysis benchmark we will be discussing today is 100 touches. Every running back ages 21-37 had to have at least 100 touches to qualify
  3. The points and points per game (PPG) are in half point (.5) points per reception (PPR)
  4. When conducting the analysis, it was important to have a baseline for touches as many players who don’t make it typically only play 3-4 years in their early 20s. That means if you don’t have a touch baseline in the analysis then you’re including a lot of young running backs who don’t pan out. This would prevent us from getting a better idea of how age becomes a factor since we want to identify the running backs who were able to sustain some level of relevance throughout the years

Like we always promise we will give you the high-level data first and you can take it for what it is worth. The first chart will include the running backs (RB) age, the average total fantasy points those running backs had at that age and the average points per game (PPG) those running backs had at that age.  If you want a deeper dive, we have included more information later.

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Enter Best Ball Drafts. A format growing closer to my heart by the year. No lineups to set. No waivers to run. You draft your team and the best possible lineup of your starters is automatically entered each week. A true paradise for those who love the draft room experience and are looking for buy-in. I have also found the auto-drafters, early exiting participants, and obscure first round picks aren’t as prevalent. Since making the switch, the largest difference I have seen is the percentage of my teams making the playoffs. More teams in the playoffs equates to more championships. A winner is you!

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B_Don takes a look at Donkey Teeth’s QB rankings as DT tries to narrow down his rankings and tiers. DT doesn’t have Mahomes #1, well, that’s just crazy  talk, but he’ll try and make sense of it. DT’s love affair with speed has him taking Jalen Hurts at a position that may be uncomfortable (like the backseat of a VW?). Maybe B_Don can talk him down on the young Philly QB.

Why do the guys hate Dak Prescott? Where is it worth taking Aaron Rodgers if you’re forced to draft soon? Why is Baker Mayfield a starter? If you turned into a delicious pastry, would you eat yourself? These are the important questions that will help you find the right signal caller for your team. 

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It’s been an eventful offseason for the quarterback position. I know, I know, it’s too soon to joke about Masseuse Gate. But as I read over one massage therapist’s account of an interaction with Deshaun Watson back in 2019, my immaturity got the best of me as visuals entered my mind. I’ll just leave this here:

“Watson developed an erection, she says, and also began clenching and slowly ‘thrusting the air.'”

Regardless of  maturity level, it’s difficult to read that Sports Illustrated article and not find it both very credible and extremely concerning for the future of Watson’s NFL career. I don’t see many paths to him playing football in 2021. And then we have the whole, slightly less mind boggling, Aaron Rodgers saga. Will the Packers hall of famer hang up the cleats to pursue a career as Jeopardy host? If I have to take a hard stance today, I’m saying neither of these elite fantasy QB options touch the field this season. And thus, you will not find either among my top 10 quarterbacks for 2021 fantasy football:

*Note: These rankings are geared toward standard QB scoring with 4 points per passing touchdown. Projections provided in this season’s rankings are not my own, they come from Rudy Gamble’s World Renowned 2021 Fantasy Football Projections.

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When Is It Time To Officially Fade A Wide Receiver In Fantasy?

Whether it is dynasty or redraft understanding when the cliff typically comes for a fantasy asset is key to staying ahead of the game. What we did was review the last 10 seasons of wide receiver production by age to see when the drop off comes for wide receivers. A couple key nuggets that you need to know before we get started.

  1. The years sampled were 2011-2020 for the wide receiver position only.
  2. The analysis benchmark we will be discussing today is 100 targets. Every wide receiver ages 21-37 had to have at least 100 targets to qualify
  3. When conducting the analysis it was important to have a baseline for targets as many wide receivers who don’t make it typically only play 3-4 years in their early 20s. That means if you don’t have a target baseline in the analysis then you’re including a lot of young wide receivers who don’t pan out. This would prevent us from getting a better idea of how age becomes a factor since we want to identify the wide receivers who were able to sustain some level of relevance throughout the years

Like we always promise we will give you the high-level data first and you can take it for what it is worth. The first chart will include the wide receivers (WR) age, the average total fantasy points those wide receivers had at that age and the average points per game those wide receivers (PPG) had at that age.  If you want a deeper dive, we have included more information later in the article.

Reviewing Points and Points Per Game (PPG)

WR Age Points PPG
21 177.7 11.3
22 182.9 12
23 183.5 12
24 174.5 11.3
25 191.3 12.2
26 205.5 13.3
27 185.3 12
28 191 12.6
29 194.1 12.6
30 177.6 11.5
31 182.5 11.6
32 171.4 11.6
33 179.4 11.5
34 183.2 11.6
35 154.4 10.1
36 131.9 8.5
37 144.9 10.4

 

As you can see for the wide receiver position there is no major drop off. What we end up seeing is a lot of stability over the years. Wide receivers age 25-29 peak at age 26 but they remain stable up until their age 30 campaign. Meanwhile once they hit 30 instead of a steep decline, we find a slight drop in fantasy production, but it quickly stabilizes similarly to wide receivers in their late 20s. When you breakdown the production 25-29 vs. 30-34 wide receivers age 30-34 still produce at just over 92% in points and PPG vs. their late 20 counterparts.

Overall, only a few wide receivers make it to age 35 let alone reach 100 targets at that age. However, when they do, we can still see some level of production as they produce at roughly 75% vs. age 25-29.

Finally, the drop off isn’t as steep as we might have thought. This slight dip in production followed by a stability period does show that wide receivers in their early 30s who are still producing at a high level probably have a few more years left in the tank. 

Please, blog, may I have some more?