Cheerio everyone! We get our first taste of morning football this season as the Chargers and Titans head across the pond to give us the glorious 9:30AM EST NFL action we’ve all been waiting for. Let’s start with this game and touch a couple others that you should be keeping an eye out for.

Chargers vs Titans (London Game)

Please, blog, may I have some more?

The start of this week had no RB value and it just looked like a stuff Gurley, Zeek and McCaffrey into lineups week, but that’s the fun of the NFL. We saw the Browns make a good trade and get rid of Hyde to let Chubb and Duke run wild (though i’m still skeptical that coaching staff can figure out how to use those two). Theo Riddick is out, opening up Kerryon Johnson as a 3-down back and I became way more OK with Peyton Barber value as the week progressed. All this value opening up combined with a lot of the elite RBs not being on the main slate means that we might, for the first time, all season, have a WR in the flex and win the million dollars. So while normally I’d say if you’re rolling a WR in flex in FanDuel GPPs, it’s 100% wrong, the lack of stone cold locks at RB this week means you can probably get away with a WR and in fact you could conceivably place high and maybe even win. But if one or two of the value RBs go off, you’re going to need them and odds are your WR-as-flex GPP is in a boatload of trouble.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Let me start by saying I am not a bookmaker. I enjoy sports betting, like most of you, but I won’t pretend to be as sharp as someone like our own Rudy Gamble (have you tried Rudy’s NFL Tools?). What I lack in efficiency I make up for in creativity and a willingness to put a line on almost anything. In that spirit, I give you the first propageddon post. Each week I will mash up some of my favorite storylines into a dozen prop bets. To help me out I’ve asked a handful of fellow touts to give their input. You can see all the responses in chart form here. I’ve also created a version for readers to fill out, and I’ll publish the top performer next week! Without further ado, the props…

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Well that was one hell of a ride. My Bills had Houston right where we wanted them. And Nathan Peterman just… just… just did Nathan Peterman things and threw a pick-6. I really shouldn’t have been surprised when it happened. He has to have done that at least 2847 times by now in his 396 day career. Before I go on a long tirade about how bad Josh Allen looked before he got hurt, let’s just take care of this game in its’ entirety.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

If you saw the arguments this week on twitter, then you know there’s a question. Does defense matter for overall fantasy production? Most of the reason why people say defense doesn’t matter is because the way we measure defense is pretty terrible, and until we can measure true talent defense much better, the appearance of being a good or bad defense is super noisy and the amount of signal there is very very low. And in terms of how to predict the production for fantasy, teams vary what they do (and some teams do this randomly and are bad at it), and you would need to know what their scheme is and what player(s) they plan to exploit, and then the adjustments on the initial game plan come into play. If you have that information, first, please share it with me, and second, you’d probably be able to obliterate DFS (and Vegas, for that matter). But if you have that information, you’re not reading this article right now. So for those of you without it – let’s attack this slate with what we do know – namely, #NeverRun, offenses score points when they throw a lot, and one of the only ways we legitimately do see defenses mattering is in pass rush versus protection – it’s hard to score points when you’re being thrown down to the ground before you can throw a pass. 

Please, blog, may I have some more?

I’m going to take this moment to point out that the Rams and Chiefs are putting up bonkers-level offensive stats by throwing early and often, aggressively utilizing #AirRaid principles to get big plays on any down. It’s beautiful to watch. Meanwhile, the Raiders have committed $100 million guaranteed to a coach who laments the death of the fullback and is publically willing to talk about how he enjoys watching Wisconsin smash-mouth football (I’m not kidding – “I sit down and watch Wisconsin, and I feel like I’m breathing fresh air again”). Jared Goff and Patrick Mahomes are shattering records and he wants to watch Wisconsin pound some 220 pound Ron Dayne wannabee up the middle for 4 yards a carry, 40 times a game.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Loyal readers of mine know that usually I have either some sort of nonsensical or comically long introductory paragraph, sometimes relevant (discussing a DFS concept/tactic/strategy that I think would be helpful for you to digest), often times entirely not relevant. However, in this case, I think the right course of action is to get right to the picks, because frankly, there’s a bunch of good cheap choices at RB this week. That’s because a few injuries to starting RBs after salaries were published caused some insanely good values to open up at the low end, and when combined with the same pair of elite RBs from last week in juicy matchups once again, we’re looking at some tough decision making. So let’s get right to it.

On to the picks…

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Last year, all my loyal readers wept tears of unfathomable sadness when baseball ended, as that meant the end of the greatest weekly column in the history of the Internet. Thankfully, Razzball has decided this year that they do not want to disappoint everyone out there who make up my loyal fan base, so they have asked me to write a weekly football picks column. Here’s the important stuff – I will be focusing on FanDuel cash picks. That’s not to say that you couldn’t take my advice and use it for other sites, but each DFS site has its own salary structure, so a good play on one site isn’t necessarily a good play on another site. So if you only play somewhere else besides FanDuel, be very careful with these picks as they’re based specifically on the salaries on FanDuel. Further, the bulk of these picks are for cash games. I will make GPP recommendations wherever I feel it’s reasonable to do so, but if you’re only a GPP player, then while this column will still be useful, just know that it’s a cash-first article. Finally, I will be making occasional references to Rudy’s projections, which you should purchase, because they are quite good. That’s not me shamelessly plugging them – that’s me speaking the truth – they’re quite good and quite helpful for anyone who plays NFL DFS. So with that in mind, onto the picks…

Please, blog, may I have some more?

We made it! We finally made it, it’s the heart of draft season and I couldn’t be more ecstatic. If you’re like me, you’ve been consuming every bit of FF content since the NFL Draft, and have participated in countless mock drafts. Shhh…don’t tell my girlfriend how many mock drafts I’ve completed. By now, you’ve tinkered around with different draft strategies and hopefully you landed on one that will lead you to the promise land. Before it’s too late, I want to make sure you are not forgetting a critical component that can set you up for a slam dunk on draft day– the handcuff.

As a new writer for Razzball.com my main focus will be providing you with a weekly RB handcuff report. I look forward to interacting with you all as the season progresses. Let me know if there is a topic or player you would like me to comment on. Today, we will focus on how handcuffs can impact your overall draft day strategy and give you a couple of the top RB handcuffs. Are you ready? Let’s do this!

Please, blog, may I have some more?