Projections sourced from Razzball’s own Rudy Gamble. Make sure to subscribe to Razzball suite of tools to help you dominate your leagues, best value on the inter-web.
Houston Texans (8-5) @ Tennesse Titans (8-5)
O/U 50 , TEN -3 (favorites)
Implied Score: TEN 26.5 – HOU 23.5
The Texans offense is averaging 23.7 points on the road and faces a Titans defense allowing 24.0 points per game over their previous 5 matchups at home. Watson takes his passing attack against a Tennessee DST that surrendered top 13th QB fantasy finishes in 3 out of their previous 4 games (QB 11 Carr – 23 Brissett – 13 Foles – 3 Mahomes). DeShaun Watson has tossed the rock for the 6th most passing TDs (24), 7th best completion percentage (67.7), 8th highest average completed air yards (6.4), and 10th most passing yards per game (245.8). The Titans defense is allowing the 8th most passing yards per game (259.9) and 1.4 passing TDs/game. If the Titans choose to attack Houston by continuing to establish the run, pace of play will be the only real threat to Watson ceiling this weekend…Tennessee ranks dead last in pass attempts per game. Rudy projects DeShaun to throw for 1.66 TDs (66% chance for a 2nd passing TD) and a 20% chance to rush for a TD in a game where the Texans are projected to score 3 TDs, Watson is Rudy’s QB9 for week 15.
You have to look all the way back to week 6 to find the last time Carlos Hyde ranked in the top 20 at the running back position. A chronic low end RB2/3, Hyde faces off against a Titans defense that has allowed the 7th fewest yards per carry, 9th fewest rushing TDs, and 10 fewest rushing yards/game. Tennessee is leaking production to pass catching backs, allowing over 43 receiving yards and 6.3 receptions per game to their previous 4 opponents, giving a safe 10 point PPR floor and plus matchup for Duke Johnson. Duke has led Hyde in RB snaps every game dating back to week 9. With Houston expected trail, we can project Duke to outsnap Hyde for the 5th week in a row. Duke is a low end flex play with RB2 upside in PPR formats only and Hyde is a un-inspiring bet on volume low-end RB2/3. Despite trailing in snaps, Hyde is averaging 13 touches per game to Duke’s 8.6 over the last month. Temper expectation for bot back in this low upside rushing attack.
Tennessee has allowed five WR2 finishes or better in 4 out 5 of their most recent games (WR17 wk 13 / WR22 wk 12 / WR3 wk 10 / WR16 & 19 wk 9). Deandre Hopkins is set up nicely as a -3 point road dog. He continues to receive the volume that earns his place weekly in the top tier of consensus rankings. Nuk is 5th in WR fantasy points per game (21.0) and WR targets per game (10.2) over his last 4 football games. Hopkins arguably has the 2nd safest fantasy floor amongst wider receivers, only behind Saints WR Michael Thomas. Rudy projects D-Hop to finish week 15 as the WR6, posting 6.2 receptions / 83.8 receiving yards / and a 70% chance to score a touchdown. Will Fuller‘s availability needs to be monitored closely heading in to the 12:00pm kick-off. Fuller was able to log limited practice session prior to his week 14 matchup, but was ultimately ruled out. Fuller has remained limited this week, and would need to log a full on Friday for me to fully trust him in my lineup. If he logs a full practice on Friday then he enters fringe WR2/3 with high WR1 upside. Kenny Stills has yet to capitalize on Fullers absence and failed to log a top WR25 or better finish in over 5 weeks of football. Neither TE Darren Fells nor Jordan Akins have cracked the top 15 at the TE position dating back to week 8, but Darren Fells has logged four top 10 TE finishes prior’s to week 8. Even though the Titans DST are on the heels of allowing a TE 1 finish in 3 of their last 4 games, neither Fells nor Akins can be trusted in the fantasy semi-finals. Both rank outside the top 40 at the position in targets per game over the last 4 weeks (2.2 targets per game for Akins / 1.5 for Fells).
With Ryan Tannehill under center, the Titans offense is on fire, Tennessee is averaging 34.0 points per game over their last 5 matchups at home (up 9 points from the yearly home average of 25 ppg). The Titans are 5-0 against the over/under since week 9. The 26.5 implied point total seems low for the red hot Tannehill. Ryan Tannehill has logged 4 top 10 QB finishes over his last 5 games (QB6 wk14 – QB19 wk13 – QB2 wk12 – QB10 wk10 – QB6 wk9). He gets his shot against a defense allowing the 5th most fantasy points to the quarterback position, 4th fewest INTs, 6th most passing yards per game, and 5th most passing TDs. We are at the point in the Tannehill saga where he dupes us all and finishes outside the top 20. But in all seriousness, Rudy projects Ryan just outside the QB1 range and has him finishing as the QB13 in week 14. If this game turns into the shootout Vegas expects, then Tannehill has top 6 fantasy QB in his range of outcomes.
Houston is leaking the 6th most fantasy points to the running back position and provides a fruitful matchup for MR. Nov-Dec Derrick Henry.Over their last 4 games, Derrick Henry is averaging a league-best 149.8 rushing yards per game and leads all running backs in rushing attempts per game (21.5). Henry is a bet on volume and matchup top shelf RB1 this week. Rudy project him to finish as the RB6 in PPR formats. Dion Lewis is only a waiver worthy fantasy asset, failing to crack the top 35 at the position in over 6 weeks of football. His only value is a handcuff for Derrick Henry owners. Despite the “load management” for Henry during the week in practice, nothing indicates the coaching staff limiting his usage during the game on Sunday. Keep an eye on the final practice/injury report released on Friday to make sure he avoids any setback.
One of the biggest question in fantasy this week…Can we trust A.J. Brown for a 2nd week in a row? The matchup against a Houston defense allowing the 6th most receiving yards per game, 9th most 20+ yard reception, 8th most 40+ yard receptions, and 5th most receiving 1st down says we should sign up for AJ Brown in the semifinals. Over the last 4 games, AJ Brown is the PPR WR16 in fantasy points per game. He jump up to the WR5 over his last 3 games. Brown out-snapped Corey Davis in 4 out of their last 5 matchups and is operating at an extremely efficient level. The high efficiency rates brings a real concern around his ability to sustain the fantasy output. Can he be trusted to lead fantasy owners to the promised land? John Daigle plants a seed of doubt…
A.J. Brown’s last four games:
– 350 yards, No. 8 WR
– 57.3 fantasy points, No. 12 WR
– 3 touchdowns, No. 2 WR (tied)
– 20 targets, No. 45 WR (tied)
– 13 catches, No. 39 WR (tied)
– 93 routes, No. 67 WR
— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) December 12, 2019
…But A.J. is on the verge of taking over as the new AB, and is clearly Tannehill’s number 1 option when tossing the rock. Brown is averaging 5.5 targets per game to Corey Davis‘ 3.0 over their last 4 games. Corey Davis can’t be trusted in this low volume passing attack. Corey is averaging less than 6.0 fantasy points per game over the last month of football and should be on waivers in almost all formats. A.J. Brown offers huge upside and comes in as Rudys WR19 in PPR formats. Brown carries WR1 upside going up against this sub par Texans secondary. Similar to the Texans tight end room, Tennessee does not have a bonafide TE option that can be trusted in our lineups. The constant see-saw in output between Jonnu Smith, Anthony Firkser, and MyCole Pruitt over the last 5 Tennessee games should give league owners the confidence to leave all three TE option on waivers.
Leave your lineup questions below in the comments or @ me on twitter. Good luck in week 15!