(EDIT: Here are the most up to date rankings –> Auction Values, Tiers and Cheat Sheet for PPR – http://su.pr/A17UuB NonPPR – http://su.pr/9DEgIM)
Here are my Top 30 fantasy football people to draft in fake football drafts where you get no points for receptions. You won’t agree with all of these and if you did I wouldn’t believe you. I probably won’t agree with these completely by the time I hit the Publish button, but they’s whats I gots. (FYI, adding S’s to words might make them funnier, but most likely not). I never know where to rank QBs because I find them lacking in fantasy hutzpah unless they are in 2 QB leagues. So take that however you will. I had planned on putting their ADPs on here, but I found them to vary so much that I’ll probably do a post on that instead. And this top tier of running backs, Jebus Jones! I like them all almost equally. I very much want the 5th pick in drafts this season. Or even 6th because AJ is a beast of epic proportions, but unless we are talking PPR you can take pick #7 and let your dog go all Wilfred on its backside. Ok, so here we have what we have. You should also check out the Tier Sheet for drafting purposes or drafting porpoises if you are in a fantasy marine mammal league.
1. Arian Foster: Foster was by far the best fantasy running back last season. He outscored Adrian Peterson by over 80 fantasy points! 18 touchdowns and 2200 total yards is good stuff, so that means I should probably rank him much lower, but I’m a sucker. I really wanted to put AP in this spot and then bump Foster up to the #1 spot in PPR leagues, but I just couldn’t make it happen. Foster is still in a great situation with a productive QB at the helm, stud wideout out wide, and a zone blocking scheme that his style fits perfectly. Will he do what he did last season? Good question Doc. I mean me. I’m not going to predict another career year. The odds of that are darn slim, but when you cut into his numbers from last season they still are pretty good. Projection: 1400/11 — 550/2
2. Adrian Peterson: All Day had been the most consistent fantasy back in the league over the past 4 years. He has never finished lower than the third best fantasy back in the league. He has also never finished as the first best fantasy back either. First best? So I am not going to laugh and throw things at people who take AP first because it’s impossible to find a running back with that kind of track record. With the addition of McNabb he is rock solid here. Projection: 1400/14 — 350/2
3. Jamaal Charles: You know my love for JC Superstar has no bounds. I worship the ground he walks on. I am one of his earliest disciples. Last year I had him ranked as the 9th best back going into the season and was nearly thrown out of the fantasy football commune, but he ended up as the 4th best back! Right now JC and CJ are 3a and 3b for me, but I am hoping JC won’t be the #2 back on his own team this season! His numbers were incredible for the number of touches he had and if he can get 50 more looks his numbers will be crazy. Projection: 1375/10 — 450/2
4. Chris Johnson: CJ2K had a “down” year but still finished as the fifth best running back last season. He should be set to “rebound” all the way up to the fourth best back. In his post 2k season he dropped 900 total yards and 4 touchdowns, which made him look much thinner, but it probably wasn’t a healthy thin. The insanity of Vince Young (Vincanity) hurt him, but Matt Hasselbeck should be an upgrade. He will most likely holdout for more money, but I’m not going to drop him in the rankings because he’ll most likely end up playing. Projection: 1425/11 — 350/2
5. Ray Rice: The Rutgers running back named Ray Rice didn’t live up to my expectations last season. He had over 1300 total yards more than Willis McGahee, but the exact same number of touchdowns with 6! Yes, that has to do a little with goal line carries, but also to do with some bad luck. With McGahee gone and Vonta Leach in, he is now 3c. Projection: 1300/9 — 500/2
6. Andre Johnson: I tried to come up with a legitimate reason not to have Andre as the #1 receiver and there was nothing. I tried to frame him for drunk driving, but they got Hines Ward instead! AJ was injured last season, missed 3 games and also played on his bum ankle for much of the season and still led the league in receiving yards per game with 93. His problem in fantasy has been getting in the end zone, but his 1500+ yards in ’08 and ’09 made up for that and he finished as the #2 and #1 fantasy receiver in those seasons. Even with a nagging ankle he was on pace for 1500 yards and 10 TDs last season. That would have made him the best fantasy receiver in the league, which he is. His injured ankle is nothing to be concerned about and the Texans are still going to be a good offense with Matt Schaub, Arian Foster and Owen Daniels there to take away some pressure. And even with pressure you can’t stop the man. Projection 1450/10
7. Rashard Mendenhall: Mendy is where I will start a new tier. He doesn’t have ankle folding moves, break away speed or many 100 yard games. So why is he ranked 7th Doc? Well, sir or ma’am, I’ll tell you. He’s on a very good, run oriented team, gets the ball at the goal line, should continue to improve in the passing game, and after slowing down at the end of last season, showed he still had it in the AFC Championship game when he displayed ability that would make you think of some of the greats. He’s a steady TD and fantasy points producer and that’s hard to pass up. Projection: 1350/12 — 300/1
8. Darren McFadden: So you have Run DMC, a clear injury risk, ahead of Maurice Jones-Drew? Wait, are you talking to me? Oh, yeah, that’s right. No, I don’t like DMac’s propensity for injury, but he’s just too damn good. Too damn good. Should I say it again? He was JC Superstar good! And if we didn’t have that injury cloud hanging around I would have him top 5 easily. But we do so I don’t. He averaged 128 total yards per game and had 10 touchdowns on a not so good Raiders team. Coach Jackson (Hue if you’re nasty) says he will continue to be the focal point of the offense. They also might lose Michael Bush, which would free up more touches. I’m not going to say he is a lock, but his upside is too crazy high to not go for him, especially at the beginning of the second round, paired with a more stable player. Projection: 1300/9 — 450/2
9. LeSean McCoy: Shady averaged a Westbrook like 5.2 yards per carry and had a Westbrook like 78 receptions for 592 yards last season. Of course he has a Westbrook-like frame which makes it hard to shove him across the goal line for short yardage TDs, but he still got in there 9 times and there’s no reason to think he can’t repeat those numbers. The Eagles offense is well suited for West, uh I mean McCoy’s skills and he will continue to get the ball on a potent offense. Of course in PPR he moves up in the rankings, but he’s still great in any format. Projection: 1100/7 — 550/2
10. Calvin Johnson: Megatron could be the most talented wide receiver in the league, or at the very least top two, but he continues to have quarterback trouble. He finished as the 5th best fantasy receiver last year and had a nagging injury and lost his quarterback in a card game. But even with back up QBs he put up good numbers. If he has Stafford all season he could compete for that #1 spot. Projection 1300/12
11. Matt Forte: Mr. Forte has moved up my rankings as I lose faith in the older backs and gain faith in Forte’s use in the offense. The one thing you want in a fantasy player is the ability to be relevant every single game and Forte can do that. Yes, he will have trouble getting into the end zone, but so does McCoy. Last season he finished as the 11th RB in non-PPR leagues and now in the second year under Martz should see an uptick in receptions and carries. He will average 100 yards a game and since he is a threat for receptions won’t get lost in a game where his team is way behind and needs to air it out. It is hard to find a running back who is the main ball carrier and main pass receiving RB on team. Projection: 1200/7 — 500/2
12. Roddy White: He has been very consistent, topping 83 receptions and 1153 yards each of the last 4 years. The addition of Julio Jones could take away a few looks, but also help take away some coverage. His consistency makes it hard not to grab him early. I could see playing it safe and taking him ahead of Megatron, but I can’t get over how high CJ’s ceiling is. He lives in a frickin mansion. White will get his though. Projection 1350/10
13. Michael Vick: I’ve spent a lot of time debating between Vick and Rodgers for the #1 QB spot and I even started the drafting tiers with Rodgers ahead of Vick, but I just can’t do it no more. Vick is too good and even though I still can’t justify taking him in the first round I am all in for the second round if he makes it there. Vick is pretty much a fantasy football machine. A running back/quarterback on a high powered offense. If he was about 20 pounds heavier I’d feel a little better about him going the whole season without sitting out a couple games like he did last year, but as a running quarterback he is setting himself up to have his block knocked off, i.e. decapitated. But I’m going to take that risk in the second round this season because the upside is too insane. With Vick I do think you should be more proactive about grabbing a backup and I could see even grabbing your backup before you grab your starting TE in some cases. Projection: 750/6 — 4100/28
14. Mike Wallace: I wrote an article a while back putting Wallace in the top 3 WRs, but I’m finding it really hard to not keep Roddy at #3 now that I’m piecing my rankings together. 60 Minutes has top 3 ability and I think he is set up to make a big leap with a full year of Big Ben as his QB and as the #1 option, but White is too safe to pass on for Wallac-e. Oh, and click on that link and read a lot more about why I like him this season. Projection 1250/11
15. Hakeem Nicks: If you project out Nicks’ numbers from last season you have #1 stats. I like him a lot, but I’m just not sure what we are going to get. I’d like to see a full season before I rank him in the top 3, but he sure has the ability to do it this year. Last season he almost had a TD per game he started. I don’t see him able to keep up those crazy numbers, but he is a no doubt top 5 wide receiver. Projection 1275/9
16. Frank Gore: I’ve gone back and forth on Gore in these last few months. Our man Clint goes into the Gorey Details why he’s not a fan and I agree, but it’s still hard not to like his ability. Well, LOVE his ability, and the fact that he is the sole back in a league with many RBBC’s. Even at 12-14 games he is going to give you a lot of fantasy points. I wish I could ask for more than 12-14 games, but I’m not going to get too greedy. Projection: 1250/8 — 350/2
17. Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers continues to be a fantasy stud and the return of Jermichael Finley and Ryan Grant only means he’s going to have more weapons to work with. He also adds a few rushing touchdowns every season to set himself apart from the Mannees of the QB world. He’s a nice consolation prize if you miss out on Vick, but I am loathe to reach for a QB so I’ll probably miss out on these top tier guys anyway. If he falls pick him up, but otherwise grab a top tier RB/WR. Projection: 300/2 — 4450/32
18. Larry Fitzgerald: Really, no matter how bad Kevin Kolb is, he’s better that foursome of rot from last season. Of course Fitz still hauled in 90 receptions with that foul lot throwing to him, but touch downs were few and far between. He is easily the first, second and third read for Kolb, so he will get plenty of targets. He has had 90+ receptions in 5 of 7 seasons and those two were his rookie and injury seasons. He’ll get the receptions and with a better QB will get his TDs. Projection 1275/9
19. Michael Turner: I’m wary of Turner this season, but I’m just not sold on the other backs that will follow him on this list. In PPR it looks like he will drop out of the top ten. Last season he finished as the 8th best fantasy running back due to his 12 touchdowns. In his first year with Atlanta he had 17 TDs and 374 carries, then he got hurt the next year and then he came back with the 12 TDs and 334 carries and a career low 4.1 yards per carry. Those 334 carries led the league and I am worried about him possibly getting injured, his team throwing more with Julio Jones on the other side of Roddy White and just his gradual decline, even if he doesn’t get hurt. Projection: 1300/12 — 125/0
20. Maurice Jones-Drew: Pocket Hercules is a fake football freak and I hate to see him drop this far, but running backs don’t last long in this here N.F.L. and when they start having knee problems you have to take notice. Can he last another season? I think he can, at least enough to still be worth an early pick, but you’ll have to grab Rashad Jennings and you’ll have to do it fairly early to make sure someone elses doesn’t do it before you. Projection: 1200/8 — 300/2
21. Steven Jackson: The Rams offense should continue to improve with Samuel Bradford at the helm and I like the addition of Mike Sims Walker. Cadillac Williams was traded in for a newer model of LeGerrette Blount and resold to St. Louis for parts. He’ll take some receptions from SJax, but will be hurt most of the time. Jackson is another back starting to decline, but the opening up of the offense by Josh McDaniels should help him out some. I’m starting to feel a little better about picking him up this season. Projection: 1200/7 — 350/1
22. Vincent Jackson: He will fall a bit in PPR leagues, but a full year with an even more seasoned Philip Rivers and he should match and exceed his 2009 numbers, which put him at the 10th best fantasy receiver. Right now it looks like Antonio Gates is the only real threat to his targets and he needs him to take some pressure off anyway. In the comfortable climes of San Diego’s offense he will have no trouble putting up big numbers. Projection 1150/10
23. Drew Brees: Last season Brees had a career high in interceptions with 22 and I just don’t see that happening again. His TD numbers will stay consistently high even with the addition of Mark Ingram because that’s Sean Payton’s offense. Deciding what receiver will end up scoring every week might be tough (bet on Jim Graham) but you know Brees will get them the ball. This tier with Brees/Manning/Brady/Rivers (whoops, did I give it away?) is going to continue to produce, but I like Brees to come back into form this season. Projection: 35/1 — 4600/35
24. Peyton Manning: The recent news of Manning still recovering from his disc surgery is somewhat troubling, but not enough for me to drop him much. His numbers overall last year were on par with his previous seasons and unless news happens to get worse I’d be happy to take him as the 4th QB. He’ll have Dallas Clark and Austin Collie back which will help him immensely. He’s still Peyton. Projection: 30/1 — 4600/34
25. Greg Jennings: Jennings started off slow last season, but finally got on track with Rodgers as the season went on. You could say his numbers were low because Jermichael Finley was taking away looks, but his sub-par numbers were a point of angst for the Packers as well as faux footballers. With Finley back I do see his numbers taking a slight dip, but in that offense I don’t see him losing too much. Projection 1125/9
26. Peyton Hillis: The truck puller beasted defenses most of last year, but slowed down considerably toward the end of the season. He didn’t score a TD in the last 5 games and only topped 100 total yards once in that stretch. He is a bull and would rather gore you than make you miss, and that contact on 318 touches wore him down. The true x-factor in all of this is Montario Hardesty. He looked great in the preseason last season before he was injured, but that is mostly meaningless now. Will he be Hillis’ back up or his partner in a RBBC or will he continue to be injured? It’s hard to draft Hillis at last year’s numbers without being sure about the answer to that question. Projection: 1100/8 — 350/1
27. Reggie Wayne: Wayne is slowing down and if Austin Collie can stay on the field he will lose some targets to him. But when it comes down to it, Wayne is still Manning’s #1 target. He will continue to get his receptions, but touchdowns are going to continue to be hard to come by. His value in non-ppr is going to hinge completely on how often he gets into the end zone. Last year he had 111 receptions, a career high, but also had a career low of 12.2 yards a reception and only 6 TDs. I see his receptions dropping a little and his TDs not rising any. Projection: 1225/7
28. DeSean Jackson: DJackasson is an amazing talent, with crazzy ass speed and agility and in the open field is nearly untouchable. Many people, including teammates it seems, believe he was afraid to go over the middle after his concussion last season and it certainly seemed so. He only had 47 receptions, but still was the 11th best fantasy receiver last season. That’s some crazy production per reception. With his propensity to T-Rex arm passes over the middle I don’t see him getting a ton of receptions, but if he does go all 16 games, and has Vick giving him all types of time to get open deep, it will be very hard to stop him from doing just that. Projection 100/1 — 1o50/7
29. Dwayne Bowe: It truly seems like Bowe has turned things around. Will he put up 15 touchdowns again? The magic 8-ball says hells no, but not getting all those TDs doesn’t make him a poor fantasy receiver. The light has switched on and I don’t see it going off again. Projection: 1150/8
30. Jahvid Best: Wow Doc! You sure have Best high on your list here. Well sir or ma’am or whatever you are, you are correct. I had Mr. Best pegged to go about a round later, but still high compared to others around the fake football horn, but then his competition up and got hurt. (See: Leshoure, Mikel, out for season with torn achilles) And then I thought to myself, self, you like Best, you saw him score 3 TDs and accumulate 187 yards against the Eagles in week 2 and then go down with turf toe and turf toe again, which he shouldn’t have even been playing through since the treatment for turf toe is rest, not playing football. He has now rested and healed his toe and is ready for a bounce back season on a high flying offense. Projection: 975/6 — 500/2
