(Doc’s note: I wanted to tell you about Rudy’s new site KitchenSnark.com and his weekend sports roundup righchare. Now onto Drew’s post!)
The Bye Week factor is in full effect. Fantasy owners are being strung out and forced to start players they hadn’t even heard of a few weeks ago. Players like Brandon Lloyd, who were written off five years ago as draft busts, are coming out of the woodwork and putting up Andre Johnson numbers. Speaking of, players like Andre Johnson were supposed to carry our teams and are barely carrying their own weight.
I have talked about this season a lot with Doc, Jones, and other knowledgeable Fantasy people. It’s just hands-down the craziest year in the NFL in recent memory. There’s no rhyme or reason to many of the things that are going on out there. In most of my leagues, the people in first place are total morons who drafted terrible. But, somehow, that “LT in the 6th, TO in the 7th” has worked out for them despite all logic to the contrary that ought to apply.
So what do we do in a crazy season like this? Should we follow the herd? Is it time to start making ridiculous trades just to try and get through one more week?
Some people are in a situation where if they lose this week, there’s almost no way they’ll make the playoffs. Those people are going to have to swallow their pride, weaken their team’s long term, and make a bad trade. It’s unfortunate but we’ve all been there. So if that’s your situation, I understand. Just realize that you’re going to have to work the waiver wire and free agency like a Champion from here on out to be competitive down the stretch.
If you’re at or near the top, or in the middle of the pack, don’t make any sudden moves! It’s not time to play it safe, it’s time to double down. Over the course of history, studs put up digits. Even in leagues where my record is 2-3 I am looking to cash in on the Peyton Hillis, Brandon Lloyd types to get upper tier players. I recommend that you do the same. Now, your “projection” for week 6 might lessen because of a trade like this but remember how bogus the projections are a lot of the time anyway.
When a lion is picking out an antelope, it looks for the three-legged, cross-eyed one that’s drooling on itself. That’s what we are looking for in trades. The best thing about the Bye week is that it creates these situations artificially. Most people (myself included) don’t consider the Bye Week as a factor when drafting and simply go for value. But when that Bye Week comes along, sometimes you find yourself in a must-win situation. You are a three-legged, cross-eyed antelope. Sorry.
For week 6 the Cardinals, Bills, Panthers, and Bengals are on a Bye. Not exactly an embarrassment of riches but there are some players I wouldn’t mind targeting on those teams. Here are the ones I like for each team.
Beanie Wells: I like him A LOT. He has come back from the injury healthy. Not very productive, but healthy nonetheless. Even better than that, the Cardinals have been feeding him the rock. From here on out, Beanie has more upside per the price tag than any running back in the league.
Larry Fitzgerald: Without Warner he’s not going to be the Larry Fitz that we’ve come to know and love. Even so, he’s still Larry Fitz. He had a nice game in week 5 and could be due for a multiple touchdown game. If the price tag is reasonable, I’m all in.
Fred Jackson: He will get his this season. The ceiling isn’t particularly high but the floor’s not that low either. I’m not going to give up a whole lot to get him but he should be a nice RB3/Flex starter for you.
C.J. Spiller: If you’re in a league that counts return yards he’s extremely valuable. He’ll be getting plenty of touches in the offense and might even usurp Jackson on the depth chart. His ceiling is a little higher than Fred Jackson’s but he probably won’t end up with more fantasy points for 2010.
DeAngelo Williams is a stud and the Panthers can’t throw the football. He should be getting 18+ touches game in and game out. I would definitely be targeting him, especially if his owner is desperate for a win in week 6.
Terrell Owens: AKA “the player.” I didn’t think TO would produce the way he has thus far but he looks great. Palmer has been extremely erratic but they’ll still put the ball in his hands. The days of 1,500 yard seasons are past TO but for 2010 an 80 catch, 1,200 yard, 10 TD season isn’t out of the question at this point.
Cedric Benson: He continues to pound the rock. Last season he was a workhorse for the Bengals most of the season but slowed down toward the end. I’m worried that the same thing will happen this year. Given his solid production thus far, Benson’s price tag will probably be too high for me in most instances. See if you can pry him away at a discount.