Team: Atlanta Falcons

New Play-Caller: Arthur Smith

Scheme: West Coast

 

Historical Overview

The change from former Falcons Offensive Coordinator Dirk Koetter’s pass first Air Coryell attack to Arthur Smith’s run first play action pass offense is going to be drastic. However, Matt Ryan has a lot of familiarity with this offense Smith is bringing over. Back in 2015 and 2016 former Titans Offensive Coordinator Matt Lafleur was the Quarterbacks coach in Atlanta for two seasons.  In those seasons the Falcons ran a similar scheme to what Arthur Smith ran in Tennessee after taking over for Matt Lafleur in 2019. Matt Ryan enjoyed his lone MVP season in 2016 running this system amassing 4,944 pass yards and 38 TDs. That season the Falcons produced a Top 3 quarterback, Top 6 running back and a Top 6 wide receiver.

In this article we will breakdown by position the impact of this coaching change, and how we believe the fantasy relevant players will perform in the new offense.

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With free agency starting to calm down, you can already quantify the impacts that players have made on teams with the odds being presented by bookmakers. While the Chiefs stay at the top spot at +500 to win the Super Bowl, there are some great odds that may be moving quickly. One team that is getting a lot of love for the newfound fantasy value that it has acquired is the Washington Football Team, who sit at +6,000 odds to win the Super Bowl. Not only has Washinton turned into a favorable fantasy destination with the addition of Ryan Fitzpatrick, but the wager for them to win it all has gotten much more enticing.

If you wish to bet on sports, then one of the top bookmakers is William Hill. The sportsbook just launched in Virginia, and you can bet on the local Washington Football Team right now, with William Hill Virginia. Currently, William Hill has Super Bowl, conference, and divisional odds available. Washington sits at +6,000, +2,800, and +300 to win the Super Bowl, NFC, and NFC East, on William Hill Virginia.

The 2021 free-agent class was filled with massive names in fantasy football. However, after Allen Robinson and Chris Godwin both received franchise tags, it seemed that the class was going to be a letdown. Looking now, it seemed very few, if any, free agents really increased their value.

When looking a bit deeper, there are some winners, but the biggest winners were not free agents at all. Some of the biggest winners were players that had a value increase due to other weapons leaving the team. This leads to these winners being given more opportunities to score even more points for their fantasy rosters. However, we will touch on a couple of winners from the free-agent class, as well.

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Hello all, it’s the most wonderful time of the year when hot takes are all the rage and us nerds get to wax poetic about what those silly NFL GMs should do at the end of April. I have put together my top 15 wide receivers for you using a combination of production metrics and film. Without getting too technical, my process is to group players into tiers based on breakout age and other college production metrics which and project draft capital and expected upside then refine those rankings within a tier by watching them play.

This list reflects who I would prefer in a vacuum on talent alone. Of course NFL draft capital and landing spot will come into play, but I think we should pick players on talent first and the other factors are more like tie-breakers rather than a major consideration. All metrics come from the campus2canton.com data app.

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Najee Harris – Alabama – 6’2″ 230 lbs. – 3/9/98 (23 years old)

  • Strong, but not elite balance allows him to take (or deliver) a hit and keep going. 
  • Speaking of delivering hits, he’ll drop a shoulder into an oncoming defender or push through the pile.
  • Pulls through arm tackles. Keeps grinding at the end of plays. 
  • Has a knack for getting the first down or touchdown. 

Good vision to wait for a path to open outside. Breaks it back inside and drags the arm tackler for the first down. 

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Cornerbacks Games in Shadow Coverage PPG Allowed Games Under 10 PPG Top 24 WRs Faced Y/SNP
James Bradberry 9 8.6 5 5 0.75
Carlton Davis 8 9.4 5 4 1.37
Darius Slay 7 13.6 3 4 1.53
Jalen Ramsey 5 13.5 2 5 0.53
Bradley Roby 5 10.9 3 2 0.72
Patrick Peterson 5 13.4 2 4 1.05
William Jackson 5 6.2 3 2 1.07
Isaac Yiadom 5 8.2 3 0 1.2
Malcolm Butler 5 7.9 3 3 1.36
Jaire Alexander 4 9.6 2 3 0.64
Tre’Davious White 4 9.5 2 1 0.94
Stephon Gilmore 4 8.2 2 2 1.01
Janoris Jenkins 4 9.1 3 1 1.17
J.C. Jackson 4 21.8 2 1 1.23
Xavien Howard 4 11.3 1 2 1.25
Marshon Lattimore 4 10 2 4 1.27

Chart Key

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Ja’Marr Chase – LSU – 6’0″ 208 lbs. – 3/1/00 (21 years old)

  • All American, Fred Biletnikoff Award Winner
  • Sat out 2020, which would’ve been his junior season. 
  • My #1 player for non-super flex rookie drafts. 
  • Chase looked so amazing in his 2019 campaign that he made Justin Jefferson look like a glorified slot receiver. 
  • His 2019 season held the SEC receiving yards record and TD record with 1780 yards and 20 TDs until DeVonta Smith broke both records the next year. 
  • Elite ability to bring down the ball in jump ball situations. 
  • Hands are strong. Holds on to the ball through contact or above a defender.
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THIS IS NOT A KENNY GOLLADAY ARTICLE! 

This is an article about the man who will now be throwing Golladay the ball, Daniel Jones. I know, there is nothing sexy about Daniel Jones. His doofy demeanor and blank stares are only slightly better than his predecessor, Eli Manning. The “Danny Dimes” moniker that he received in his rookie season was basically stripped from him this past season as he and the Giants struggled and looked more like pennies. Even before the Golladay signing though, I was telling people in the Twitterverse not to sleep on Daniel Jones coming into the 2021-22 season. 

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Using the shadow coverage matrix from Pro Football Focus we took a deep dive into all the shadow coverage matchups in 2020. The first step was to make some eliminations in the data to get a more accurate representation of the notable shadow corners in 2020. In the analysis we did this by using the following criteria:

  1. The shadow coverage matchup must be for at least 50% of snaps
  2. AND the opposing shadow corner must have shadowed in at least 4 games in 2020

By using this criteria, it allowed us to eliminate a lot of corners who were either not consistently used as a shadow corner or who weren’t the best cornerbacks on their team. The importance of this is it allows us to better predict impactful shadow coverage matchups in the future by highlighting teams who consistently use shadow coverage week in and week out.

After factoring in these criteria only 11 wide receivers faced at least three notable shadow corners in 2020.

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B_Don and Donkey Teeth are back for another episode of the Razzball Fantasy Football Podcast. With the start of NFL free agency, the guys are going to discuss the early signings and what it means for some of the other fantasy options on those teams. 

We start with the Aaron Jones signing who is firmly a RB1 after this signing for both of us. What about AJ Dillon though? The two have different opinions about what Dillon’s role may look like. 

Dak Prescott is back with the Cowboys to nobody’s surprise. Nothing too new on this one, but we talk about which guys we trust in the offense and where each of us is on Zeke in ’21. 

Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski are back for another run with the Bucs. And Brady’s former team, the Patriots, have been buys in free agency bring back Cam Newton and signing Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, Nelson Agholor, and Kendrick Bourne. 

Listen in as we continue on with signings including: Emmanuel Sanders, John Brown, Corey Davis, Jameis Winston/Taysom Hill, Malcolm Brown, Marlon Mack, Mark, Ingram, A.J. Green, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andy Dalton, Allen Robinson, and more.

The guys make their first bet on the season in the Houston back field. Donkey Teeth is taking David Johnson and B_Don is taking Mark Ingram. 

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March 15th, 2021—a day that will live in infamy—the United States National Football League was suddenly and deliberately attacked by naval and air forces of the empire of New England. The NFL was at peace with that franchise after the Patriots brought in the ghost of Cam Newton to lead the team into the 2020 gutter with a record of 7-9. Bill Belichick and his prized pooch weren’t messing around as free agency kicked off on Monday. As of this writing, the evil empire has signed four defensive players, two tight ends and two wide receivers in a weak whimper of a response to Tom Brady’s first non-Patriot Super Bowl ring. Jonnu Smith was the first signing of fantasy interest to be reported, but the excitement didn’t last long as less than 24-hours later New England inked a second free agent tight end in Hunter Henry. Will the Henry/Smith tandem be the new Gronk/Hernandez? I’ve heard rumors that Jonnu likes to party and Henry hangs around in some sketchy circles, so maybe that’s the comp. But for fantasy purposes my excitement level couldn’t get much lower. I take that back: Belichick just signed Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor. Yuck. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this past week for 2021 fantasy football:

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