When Is It Time To Officially Fade A Wide Receiver In Fantasy?
Whether it is dynasty or redraft understanding when the cliff typically comes for a fantasy asset is key to staying ahead of the game. What we did was review the last 10 seasons of wide receiver production by age to see when the drop off comes for wide receivers. A couple key nuggets that you need to know before we get started.
- The years sampled were 2011-2020 for the wide receiver position only.
- The analysis benchmark we will be discussing today is 100 targets. Every wide receiver ages 21-37 had to have at least 100 targets to qualify
- When conducting the analysis it was important to have a baseline for targets as many wide receivers who don’t make it typically only play 3-4 years in their early 20s. That means if you don’t have a target baseline in the analysis then you’re including a lot of young wide receivers who don’t pan out. This would prevent us from getting a better idea of how age becomes a factor since we want to identify the wide receivers who were able to sustain some level of relevance throughout the years
Like we always promise we will give you the high-level data first and you can take it for what it is worth. The first chart will include the wide receivers (WR) age, the average total fantasy points those wide receivers had at that age and the average points per game those wide receivers (PPG) had at that age. If you want a deeper dive, we have included more information later in the article.
Reviewing Points and Points Per Game (PPG)
| WR Age | Points | PPG |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | 177.7 | 11.3 |
| 22 | 182.9 | 12 |
| 23 | 183.5 | 12 |
| 24 | 174.5 | 11.3 |
| 25 | 191.3 | 12.2 |
| 26 | 205.5 | 13.3 |
| 27 | 185.3 | 12 |
| 28 | 191 | 12.6 |
| 29 | 194.1 | 12.6 |
| 30 | 177.6 | 11.5 |
| 31 | 182.5 | 11.6 |
| 32 | 171.4 | 11.6 |
| 33 | 179.4 | 11.5 |
| 34 | 183.2 | 11.6 |
| 35 | 154.4 | 10.1 |
| 36 | 131.9 | 8.5 |
| 37 | 144.9 | 10.4 |
As you can see for the wide receiver position there is no major drop off. What we end up seeing is a lot of stability over the years. Wide receivers age 25-29 peak at age 26 but they remain stable up until their age 30 campaign. Meanwhile once they hit 30 instead of a steep decline, we find a slight drop in fantasy production, but it quickly stabilizes similarly to wide receivers in their late 20s. When you breakdown the production 25-29 vs. 30-34 wide receivers age 30-34 still produce at just over 92% in points and PPG vs. their late 20 counterparts.
Overall, only a few wide receivers make it to age 35 let alone reach 100 targets at that age. However, when they do, we can still see some level of production as they produce at roughly 75% vs. age 25-29.
Finally, the drop off isn’t as steep as we might have thought. This slight dip in production followed by a stability period does show that wide receivers in their early 30s who are still producing at a high level probably have a few more years left in the tank.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
