May be a silly question, but in your projections, are you counting 0.1 pt per yard or is it actually 1 for every 10? So if a player rushes for 99 yards, do they get 9.9 or 9 points?
I’m in a 2 QBkeeper league and already have my 2 QB’s, my RB, 2 WR, TE and an additional WR. I have the 1st pick and my current RB is Lacy. We play with defensive players as well. Should I take Hill (best available player) as a backup RB or should I draft for need and take a defensive player which isn’t as flashy but would fill my defensive needs?
Wagner (LB), Jones (DL) & Posluszny (LB) are available
They are updated every Sunday, and should be updated tomorrow for the next batch. But yeah, on the next iteration, I’ll add those dates in, good catch there.
Hey Jay – thanks so much for doing this. You guys are great. You have the team in the POS column – any chance you can get that fixed so downloaded Excel file is sortable by POS?
Super solid ranks, ESPN is driving me nuts. Keeper question: do you go for the higher ceiling of K Benjamin, or the higher floor of Cobb? Gotta pick one.
@Jeebers: I think in keeper leagues, if you can roll with it, Benjamin seems like a good bet. But if you need Cobb to go for the championship, I would go that direction.
@Deuce: Probably wishful thinking, I always want to watch Nacho start for maximum entertainment value, but this is one of those things that will probably be updated next week.
Does creating your projections affect your rankings? Like you have Luck projected higher than Newton, but you’d still take Newton first because he has a higher floor? Do you find yourself going over your rankings after an exercise like this?
@Tony: Rankings are more feeling than scientific, based on draft value, hype, trends, etc. Not to say I just shoot from the hip, but the projections are much more scientific. I take the last three years numbers, form a median, calculate the fluctuations, and then find how the player trended. I then take their games played, and try to add the missing projections from that. And then once I have all the numbers in front of me, I do my own edits compared to just last years stats. It’s not an exact science, but I try to be not just conservative with the numbers, but very meticulous with the parts that I personally touch without any methodology.
That’s kind of a long answer to say that I keep both separate because one is how you should draft, and other is a “close range” of what you should expect if everything turned out perfect. Or not perfect, but predicted.
Awesome! Thanks!
May be a silly question, but in your projections, are you counting 0.1 pt per yard or is it actually 1 for every 10? So if a player rushes for 99 yards, do they get 9.9 or 9 points?
No probe! And it would be 9.9.
@Jay: good, none of that rounding b.s.
@Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: My goal is always less work for everyone, including myself.
@Jay: and you get accuracy thrown in for free, how nice.
Question:
I’m in a 2 QBkeeper league and already have my 2 QB’s, my RB, 2 WR, TE and an additional WR. I have the 1st pick and my current RB is Lacy. We play with defensive players as well. Should I take Hill (best available player) as a backup RB or should I draft for need and take a defensive player which isn’t as flashy but would fill my defensive needs?
Wagner (LB), Jones (DL) & Posluszny (LB) are available
Thanks
@Matt: This might be a better q for Kevin, but I’d go Hill.
Any way to put a comment somewhere to tell us when the projections were last updated?
They are updated every Sunday, and should be updated tomorrow for the next batch. But yeah, on the next iteration, I’ll add those dates in, good catch there.
Hey Jay – thanks so much for doing this. You guys are great. You have the team in the POS column – any chance you can get that fixed so downloaded Excel file is sortable by POS?
Yeah, we’ve had the same issue with the auction tables too. I’m working with Rudy to get those fixed. Thanks for the heads up!
@Mattyo: Should be fixed now!
Super solid ranks, ESPN is driving me nuts. Keeper question: do you go for the higher ceiling of K Benjamin, or the higher floor of Cobb? Gotta pick one.
@Jeebers: I think in keeper leagues, if you can roll with it, Benjamin seems like a good bet. But if you need Cobb to go for the championship, I would go that direction.
You really think Mark Sanchez will get the majority of reps in Denver?
@Deuce: Probably wishful thinking, I always want to watch Nacho start for maximum entertainment value, but this is one of those things that will probably be updated next week.
Does creating your projections affect your rankings? Like you have Luck projected higher than Newton, but you’d still take Newton first because he has a higher floor? Do you find yourself going over your rankings after an exercise like this?
@Tony: Rankings are more feeling than scientific, based on draft value, hype, trends, etc. Not to say I just shoot from the hip, but the projections are much more scientific. I take the last three years numbers, form a median, calculate the fluctuations, and then find how the player trended. I then take their games played, and try to add the missing projections from that. And then once I have all the numbers in front of me, I do my own edits compared to just last years stats. It’s not an exact science, but I try to be not just conservative with the numbers, but very meticulous with the parts that I personally touch without any methodology.
That’s kind of a long answer to say that I keep both separate because one is how you should draft, and other is a “close range” of what you should expect if everything turned out perfect. Or not perfect, but predicted.
Rate my team
Luck
DEZ
M.Evans
B.Cooks
D.Freeman
R.Matthews
J.Graham
E.Ebron
T.Coleman
M.Thomas
D.Washington
J.Doctson
C.Ivory
I Crowell
D.Adams
Thats a 12 team PPR keeper league