Well, this is it, the last required information dump (hehe, dump) for the masses in preparation for your 2015 Fantasy Football Draft. And here it is, the auction values have been released. But I’m guessing you already knew that, because, of well, ^. For those of you who have never played in an auction draft, or for those of you who do nothing but make it rain when you here the words Jamaal and Charles in the same sentence, I’ll go over some pointers so as to facilitate moderate to heavy alcohol consumption without the fear of drafting Mark Sanchez.

Note: These strategies and values are based on a 12-team, $200.00 budget auction draft.

  • Make a list of targets, and find peace with the fact that you’ll land some, and you’ll lose out on others. You really like Malcom Floyd? Oh, that’s just me? Okay, well… you like Keenan Allen, right? Of course you do, why wouldn’t you? Well, guess what, me too! I think there’s a lot of reasons he could be great this year, and you know what? I’ll probably outbid you on him. But that’s okay, because I deserve him and the rest of the Chargers roster. Because I’m a masochist. It’s also okay because right next to Allen’s name, you should have Jordan Matthew‘s name as well. Always have a back-up to a back-up to a back-up on your target list, and make sure you use our values to decide whether or not you are getting value. For example, let’s say I won the bidding for Allen, but I got him at $24.00, $5.00 more than his stated value and too rich for your blood. (Who gives blood a checking account anyways?) And you see Matthew’s bidding start slowing down at $16.00 or $17.00… now’s the time to jump in.
  • Related to making a list of targets above with values, try to plan out a budget for each position using those values. Use Excel, Google Sheets, pen and paper, dark wizardry, it doesn’t matter. Simply put, just have a general sense of what you want to spend and how much. For example, you really want to try and land the underrated Jeremy Maclin at $8.00? That’s very possible! And guess what, his value is at $12.00… so that’s potentially $4.00 you can add to your RB pool that allows you to go for a T.J. Yeldon ($16.00) instead of a Joique Bell ($12.00). No auction draft will go to plan, but if you have this list in front of you, do the math on the fly (something you can setup in both Excel and Google Sheets very easily) and see how you can mix and match when you win players at a value or vica versa, you’ll have a huge leg up on your league-mates, and you’ll be surprised how little money you leave on the table at the end.
  • Don’t be afraid to overpay for “your” guys. We all have a few guys that we each personally believe in. I’m a huge Carlos Hyde guy this season, in all formats, and if I have to pay, let’s say, $5.00 more than his value ($19.00), I’m okay with that. I’ll find value elsewhere. You could call it the “know when to play ’em, know when to fold ’em” mentality, but in auctions, I’m very aggressive in getting “my guys”. Don’t let the market or the other owners dictate your team. That doesn’t mean go crazy and spend $80.00 on Petyon Manning (and that’s just the price for his forehead), bring a balanced approach, but if you truly believe in a guy, pay that extra money and know that you can find savings later in the draft.
  • Throw a few names out there early that you want. There are a lot of strategy guides out there that tell you to never buy in the first hour, or don’t nominate a player you want. Okay, but you might miss out on really good early values when people are buying into what everyone has told them, just sitting there and waiting. Let’s say you throw out Greg Olsen as one of your early nominations… my bet is, not many people are going to enter into a bidding war, because they want to save their money and position for guys like Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham. Fantastic, that’s value right there, and you’ve essentially set the market.
  • Alcohol. Drink lots of it.

 

And now, I’m proud to present the 2015 Razzball Fantasy Football Auction Values.

Note, Part Deux: Again, a special thanks goes to Rudy Gamble, because without him, we wouldn’t have this.

  1. A Hill O' Beanes says:
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    “Throw a few names out there early that you want.”

    I like that advice. Everything I always read says to never nominate anyone you actually want. The problem I find is that if my #1 target at QB is player A, and then I have B, C, and D as my backup plans it always seems to workout that my backup plans get nominated first. Which leaves me with buying my second or third choice, and thus eliminating myself from getting my first choice. Or letting all my backup plans go by and then being in a situation where I end up having to overbid for the guy I want because all my backup plans are already off the board.

    As someone who doesn’t do a ton of auctions, this has always been my biggest problem, partly because I usually end up following the “don’t nominate guys you want” plan. How do you deal with stuff Jay?

  2. A Hill O' Beans says:
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    I’m gonna try that again without spelling my own username wrong this time, haha.

    “Throw a few names out there early that you want.”

    I like that advice. Everything I always read says to never nominate anyone you actually want. The problem I find is that if my #1 target at QB is player A, and then I have B, C, and D as my backup plans it always seems to workout that my backup plans get nominated first. Which leaves me with buying my second or third choice, and thus eliminating myself from getting my first choice. Or letting all my backup plans go by and then being in a situation where I end up having to overbid for the guy I want because all my backup plans are already off the board.

    As someone who doesn’t do a ton of auctions, this has always been my biggest problem, partly because I usually end up following the “don’t nominate guys you want” plan. How do you deal with stuff Jay?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @A Hill O’ Beans: I just thought that was the Spanish version of your name.

      Honestly, it’s sort of a cop out, but I try to find balance. I don’t know a tangible way of giving an example, but if I see that top guys being avoided early in the draft, I throw one out, even if I want him, because I want to set the market. Alright, so the dude paid 50 bucks for Dez Bryant right off the bat? That’s a bookmark for you. Now, when you hear Jones, Johnson, OBJ, other top tier WR’s get called off, you know where they should fall.

      Not sure if that makes sense, but it’s basically watching the market and creating your own value.

  3. Comatose says:
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    Not an auction-related question:

    I’m in a keeper league where you give up your draft pick for the round you drafted your keeper in the previous year. I’m sure there’s an easier way to phrase that but whatever. With no other great options, I’m stuck between keeping Dez and giving up my first rounder or keeping DeMarco and giving up my second rounder. Any thoughts? Thanks.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Comatose: I’d concede and first round pick and keep Dez. I think you have more to work with having a second rounder.

  4. Phil B.

    pbmax says:
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    Thanks for the values! & Yes on drinking, it takes a long time, especially if you do it live in person. And even if you are in an online draft still try and get together with the other people in the league that are near you. Way more fun.

    I have a league that you can start 1 RB, 1 Rb/Wr, and 3 WR/TE; how much(if so) more do you think Gronk and Graham are worth?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @pbmax: Amen on that brotha. I’d actually lower their value a bit, as you don’t necessarily have to fill that position. Is it standard or PPR?

      • Phil B.

        pbmax says:
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        @Jay: standard. Funny thing is that Gronk & Graham will go for less than 2nd Tier WRs; would you put them below the first tier and above the second? That’s about where I have them

        • Phil B.

          pbmax says:
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          @pbmax: well this season Gronk higher obviously

        • Jay

          Jay says:
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          @pbmax: Yeah, that sounds about right. Though I think Gronk is going a lot higher than Graham… I’m actually okay waiting for Graham in that case. I think the savings pays for itself.

  5. RotoLance

    RotoLance says:
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    Another great auction strategy article.

    I’ve got some “advanced” auction strategy thoughts I’d like to share with all of you.

    Opportunity cost is a phrase that I’ve heard more often this year from fantasy analysts. Basically for whatever player you select in a draft, the opportunity cost is missing out on all the players that are drafted by the time your next pick comes around. This really manifests itself when considering taking a position of less scarcity early – like a QB or TE. By taking A. Rodgers in the late first round or early in the second you’ve lost out on the opportunity to draft both a very good RB AND an elite WR because by the time it snakes back to you it will be pick 30+. In other words because you went QB early you can have one or the other but not both. (And incidentally that’s probably a big part of the reason you don’t see Rodgers ranked quite that high).

    Obviously you don’t have to worry about that in an auction. Think about what that means.

    I think it’s better to build a team that has one stud at as many different positions as possible. Because inevitably you’ll have holes to fill no matter what but if you spread your stars out across many positions I think it’s easier to fill the holes. Think of it this way, is it easier to find a replacement RB and a replacement WR than it is to find two replacement RBs? I would think so. That’s just sorta how free agency works, right? There will be a few big surprises to come out at each position and then a mix of mediocre players.

    So in a sense this is an argument to go stars and scrubs, but also _how_ to go to stars and scrubs.

    And just forget that I talked about “filling holes” on a Razzball post comment.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @RotoLance: This sounds like a post in the making… I know we base the RCLs as draft leagues, but I have to say I love auctions. They allow for a bit more freedom and offer the same amount of strategy, if not more…

  6. RotoLance

    RotoLance says:
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    Looking at the auction values, I see that QBs become less valuable in .5 PPR and full PPR. Go figure huh. It’s sorta like the argument for QBs becoming more valuable in 6pt passing TD leagues in reverse. When you change the scoring such that it increases one position group more relative to the others than that position group becomes more valuable. Go figure huh. I guess I point this out because there are still fantasy analysts that will tell you changing to 6pt Passing TDs changes almost nothing. I think it does change things, although probably not to the degree that casual fantasy players think it changes things. So it’s really just a question of how much it changes rankings. Same thing goes for PPR. Of course it makes WRs and TEs more valuable, just a question of how much. And to be technical the change to full point PPR does have a much greater effect than the change to 6pt Passing TDs because of position scarcity.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @RotoLance: Indeed, I’ll actually have a post on the 6-point passing TD at some point next week that use our projections.

  7. Nightht says:
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    In a 12 team ppr. Do I keep Hopkins and lose 7th round pick and draft forte and forsett in the first two rounds. Or do i keep latavius murray and lose my 10th round pick and draft forte and jordy nelson.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Nightht: I like the second option a little bit more.

  8. Barker says:
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    10 team 1/2 ppr super flex league

    I give gore graham marshall crowell i get forsett cooks gates

    My rbs murray gore coleman blount crowell
    My wrs dez marshall robinson agholor perriman funchess
    My tes olsen graham

    • Barker says:
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      @Barker: i have no def or kicker so i am really pushing 2 for 1 or 3 for 2

      The kid also keeps offering me gates ryan mathews and/or doug martin for graham as a 2 for 1 or 3 for 1 package idk what this has to do with my question but its annoying

      • Jay

        Jay says:
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        @Barker: Yeah, that happens. I think you can do a bit better though for Graham.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Barker: Interesting trade. I’d stand, but it’s close.

  9. David Niven says:
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    Good stuff bro. Thanks man.

    You got me through to a good amount of money finishes last year man, so a tip of the hat to ya…

    Sky doing a pre draft piece this year?

    Have a killer weekend.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @David Niven: Thanks! I think Sky is too busy homemaking. Are you talking about his DFS pieces or something else?

  10. jeff says:
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    so i’m in a 12 team .5 ppr league. 3 keepers, this is what i’m looking at, $4 O’dell Beckham(keeping obviously), Jeremy Hill $2( also keeping), but then forte $52, matt ryan $13, joique bell $2. which of those 3 do i keep, i’m leaning towards forte but… love you guys and any help would be great.

    Thanks a ton!!

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @jeff: yeah, I think Forte is your best bet there. And thanks!

  11. Mike Hunt's Honorable Discharge says:
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    finally read 2.5 months worth of posts in a couple weeks while still running a billion baseballs, and hockey is looming around the corner too.

    14 team dynasty with active rosters of 18. i have to cut at least 2, 3-4 if i want to draft 1 or 2 rookies.
    Somewhat weird scoring settings. super values QB’s and good kickers, somewhat overvalues good team D’s.
    20 yds per pt for throwing, 6 pt TD’s, -2 for picks, 15 yards per rushing and receiving pt, only 5 for rushing/receiving TD’s. -2 for fumbles lost, 25 yards per return yard.
    with kickers 3 for FG’s under 30, 30-39 worth 4, 40-49 worth 5, over 49 worth 6, -4 for under 20 yds missed, -3 for 29-20 yds missed, -2 for 39-30 yds missed, -1 for 49-40 yds missed.

    roster = QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 regular flex, 1 super flex, K, D, 8 BN.
    i have
    QB foles/palmer/hoyer/sanchize (traded for sanchize last year, and bradford won’t stay healthy)
    RB – AP, Hyde, Ellington, mason, a.williams, michael, bradshaw (no team yet?)
    WR dez, green, cooks, t.smith,c.johnson (MIN), stills
    TE Green Julius
    K barth (so good here, added right when DEN did last year, worked out pretty good)
    D MIA (started last year with both CAR and KC, dropped both when they were awful, MIA ended up better anyway)
    Even after trading G.Tate for Sanchize last year i still have ridiculous WR depth. Till nearly end of year this team was a top 3 team (even though some teams have 2 top 6 QB’s, but my RB/WR mostly crushed them). Basic rankings say to drop bradshaw and michael just to make a legal roster. This was without AP playing. I got lowball offers of shitty QB’s to get him last year.
    Here’s available players (ranked by this year rankings). I’ll be picking 9th and either 20th or 23rd (finding out whether or not it’s a snake). I’d have to assume this ranking should be adjusted somewhat both since it’s dynasty, and QB valued so much.
    Gordon, Randle, Gurley, Cooper, Yeldon, Abdullah, Agholor, Coleman (RB), Freeman, Cobb (RB), Perriman, Duke Johnson, T.Williams, D.Johnson (ARI), D.parker, Royal, Hill, Winston, Latimer, M.Jones, Polk, Britt, White, Huff, Green-Beckham, Funchess, Ajayi, Mariota.
    If i throw out having any real use for T.Williams (unless Dez injury), Royal, M.Jones, Britt i’m down to 24 guys, so i’d be able to get 2 of that list. Clearly Gurley would be best add for somebody who owns Mason, but not likely either. Hill should probably be moved up i would think (as i have no backup TE) and all WR’s down, all QB’s up, but how much? Due to return yards A.Roberts and Lockett (except ourlads says lockett isn’t doing returns) have value too.

    1. drop which 2-4 guys?
    2. how much should i move up the 2 QB’s and TE’s (hill/maxx williams/, and how much lower should WR’s be due to my depth there?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Mike Hunt’s Honorable Discharge: I’m leaning towards Bradshaw and Sanchez being expendable. It’s a good idea to handcuff Bradford, but Sanchez doesn’t excite me at all. I think Hoyer is fine there as a backup. To get the two rookies, I think you can sacrafice Stills and Michael if you can some how net Gurley and a nice rookies receiver.

      I’d say your feelings are right. I don’t think you need much more depth on the WR front, and your QB’s might need a little work.

      • Mike Hunt's Honorable Discharge says:
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        @Jay: so you think a.williams as RB 5 has more value than sanchize even with his very real chance at starting. stills gets dropped simply from being a WR 6, and really, i might be able to get him back at pick 23 if Hill/good RB’s/good WR’s are all gone. I’m somewhat worried about my QB’s staying in their job (hoyer) or health (palmer). My season crashed mostly due to losing Palmer/Foles last year. I probably should’ve mentioned before both that pretty much ALL useful backups are owned, and it’s likely mariota and winston are gone by pick 9 (leaving me a likely abdullah/agholor/coleman there). With this roster i’m guessing i should very much get a RB at 9 overall over Cooper (probably gone) and Agholor?
        Since most prospect lists aren’t far off I would have to think gurley/cooper/gordon/randle/ both QB’s all gone by my turn. Best QB’s unowned (going by yahoo projections here) are garrroooppppplo, tyrod taylor,clausen, d.anderson. Does this alter anything knowing this. If i were to get a QB at 9 i certainly would have no need of sanchize.

        • Jay

          Jay says:
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          @Mike Hunt’s Honorable Discharge: I’m just not enamored with Sanchez as a starter… I could be wrong there too. Hmm, but with no QB depth out there, I think he’s a good backup guy… If Coop and Agh are gone, maybe a Yeldon?

          Risky to wait until 9 for a QB though.

          • Mike Hunt's Honorable Discharge says:
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            @Jay: i don’t have a choice, my picks are at 9 and 23 overall. I certainly will grab one of the 2 QB if they are left at 9, but i doubt it. Yeah, among non-QB’s i have yeldon 5th, Agholor 7th. My idea was that with my roster i would rather grab the young RB than WR, even though the general idea is the WR’s have more long term value often. i see funchess made a crazy large move upward. with that much movement he might end up being who i get at 23rd.

            • Jay

              Jay says:
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              @Mike Hunt’s Honorable Discharge: Yeah, agree with everything here. I don’t think Funchess is a huge difference maker, but there’s nothing wrong with a solid guy there. I may be higher on him than some right now.

              • Mike Hunt's Honorable Discharge says:
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                @Jay: or Hill, as TE’s have a way of getting hurt all the time, and all useful TE’s are owned such that ebron/housler/rodgers/maxx/ are highest projected guys left. really WR’s are the easiest to replace position, esp since we only have to start 2. i think i got stills in free agency last year.

  12. Mark says:
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    Any chance there is a spreadsheet available with the auction values?

  13. David says:
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    Looking for input on best keeper options from my ’14 squad. I’m in a 10-team auction league and can keep up to 5 players for this year. Total budget is $250. Scoring is a 1 pt PPR and some differences from a conventional league scoring system includes 6 pts for TD’s, 1 pt. per 10 yds for both rushing & receiving, and bonuses for achievements (7.5 pts for 350+ passing, and 5 pts for 150 yds rushing & receiving). Outside of this everything else is standard. The following represents my best starting lineup with our new position configuration:

    QB1 Brady ($26)
    QB2 Roethlisberger ($10)
    RB1 Forte ($47)
    RB2 Foster ($31)
    WR1 Green ($48)
    WR2 LaFell ($10)
    WR3 DeSean Jackson ($11)
    TE Gates ($2)
    Flex1 Martavis Bryant ($16)
    Flex2 Jennings ($7)

    Bench players of note:
    Andre Williams ($2)
    Alfred Blue ($2)
    Cruz ($24)

    Currently I have selected Roethlisberger (QB1), Forte (RB1), Green (WR1), and Bryant (WR3) as definite keepers in my view. As for Foster and Brady, I am thinking they can be had for cheaper than their value if I wanted to try and retain them at auction. I am more thinking harder on my 5th keeper. I don’t see Jennings as a RB2 option and I can probably find better values for my flex at auction (especially since we are raising pts/yds for receiving this year to match rushing, why employ a RB for the flex?). He would essentially be an expensive bench player. LaFell is a good value but I think he can be obtained at auction for the same value. Therefore, I’m thinking of choosing Williams. His price is fine to justify a bench spot, he may steal goal line carries and he can end up finding himself into a 2-down player should jennings get injured. This will also enable me some more dollars to compete at the auction for best talent left.

    Thanks in advance for the time and advice.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @David: While I would probably go with LaFell, if you think you can him back at 10, Williams makes sense there.

  14. Ron Darling says:
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    Thoughts on this ten team standard scoring auction?

    Panda Man
    QB Eli Manning 2
    RB C.J. Anderson 45
    RB Jeremy Hill 38
    WR Demaryius Thomas 42
    WR Dez Bryant 43
    TE Delanie Walker 1
    FLEX Jarvis Landry 4
    D/ST Rams D/ST 1
    K Stephen Gostkowski 1
    BE C.J. Spiller 2
    BE Ameer Abdullah 3
    BE Nelson Agholor 2
    BE LeGarrette Blount 2
    BE Allen Robinson 2
    BE Martavis Bryant 3

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Ron Darling: I like the team, especially the running back tandem there. Pretty crazy to think you got Dez, C.J., and Hill. Love Delanie there for a buck too.

  15. Brett says:
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    Jay

    12 team keeper auction league 220 budget .5 ppt

    Rather Nelson 1 year at 23 or Hyde 2 years at 9

    We play 2 wr 1 rb 1 rb/wr 1 flex so could just get 1 rb and play 4 wr. Already keeping Cobb @ 14 and Jeffrey @ 14

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Brett: This gets easier after today’s news. I’d go Hyde.

      • Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey says:
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        @Jay: i’m guessing CAR guys will be moved up (WR’s) by is it monday morning on rankings updates? also, GB guys would have to change big time if jordy’s out for real.

        • Jay

          Jay says:
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          @Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey: Yeah, I just finished updating everything, so it should be set for tomorrow or very late tonight when they get loaded. The big changes were as you said, a lot of movement for Funchess, Adams, Montgomery, and Aaron Rodgers is no longer my number one ranked QB…

  16. John says:
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    Jay,

    Love your work man.

    Had a draft this weekend that went OK. 14-team, 0.5-PPR league. The draft froze up a couple of times, so had to auto-pick a few headscratchers. Let me know what you think generally and also whether I should drop Perriman for another TE (Seferian-Jenkins available on Waiver):

    QB Andy Dalton (CIN)
    RB D. Williams (PIT) & L. Bell (PIT)
    RB L. Miller (MIA)
    WR B. Cooks (NO)
    WR/TE A. Cooper (OAK)
    TE D. Walker (TEN)
    FLEX D. Adams (GB)
    D/ST Buffalo Bills
    K D. Bailey (DAL)

    BN T.J. Yeldon, RB (JAX)
    BN L. Fitzgerald, WR (ARI)
    BN J. Flacco, QB (BAL)
    BN B. Perriman, WR (BAL)
    BN D. Williams (PIT) & L. Bell (PIT)

    – John

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @John: Thanks! I think you did fine here. I like the Cooks Cooper combo there, and nice snatch on Adams. Hold Perriman for now, let’s see how his health holds this week.

  17. Brett says:
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    Jay

    Can keep 1 of these 12 team ppr. Lost Nelson (keeper in all my leagues).

    I am keeping Cobb round 15 and cj Anderson round 6.

    Here are my options for third keeper
    Hyde round 8
    Latavious murray rd 5
    Joseph randle rd 5
    Ellington rd 5

    Thanks

    • Brett says:
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      @Brett: I also have Russell Wilson in rd 7 though I prefer not to keep a qb.

      • Jay

        Jay says:
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        @Brett: Pretty good value there. I have him ranked at number 3 in my QB rankings… not such a bad idea. But like I said, Hyde there makes a lot of sense too.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Brett: Ugh, my prayers are with you. I like Hyde a lot here, but the value on Ellington is okay too. Risky though. I think I’m going Hyde there.

Comments are closed.