As I’ve been alluding to in some past content, or peppering, if you will, and I might (because steak?), the projections, like winter, were coming. And since winter is here (in the Game of Thrones sense, not the literal sense), there is no more alluding anymore folks. DEATH TO ALL ALLUSIONS. Because someone once told me that time is a flat circle. Everything we’ve done or will do, we’re going to do over and over again. Alright-alright-alright. In this regard, I wouldn’t mind if this day kept repeating itself. Because of steak, the end of allusions, and the arrival of our 2015 Fantasy Football Projections. Could use more boobs though. I’ll look into that. (Life story bro.)

Now, before we get to the good stuff, I just wanted to go over a few things. First, these projections (for over 500 players!) aren’t just some random numbers put into random places for random people to look at. They are based on career performance, last year’s performance, the player’s durability, and so those three things are mixed, stirred, shaken, whichever you prefer, and then the math happens. I then take what the math did and put my own touches on it (legal touches), altering the numbers a bit here and there. Granted, we aren’t the big boys like ESPN, Yahoo, and CBS, but I’m very happy with our system this year. (And I should note that we beat out all three last season in ranking accuracy, including many other major outlets.) Second, you probably won’t see an exact correlation with our projections and our rankings. There will be matches, for sure, but think of the projections as a median for what we think the player will produce. While I went with a more conservative approach here, don’t be surprised if there’s a 10% (or close to) swing in either direction for some players who either end up over-performing or under-performing. Just the nature of the beast. And these projections will be updated if there are any major injuries or other shifting events, like Trent Richardson not sucking any more, and there will also be minor edits at least once a week, so be sure to check in here and there.

Note: I’d like to thank Rudy, for whom this would not be possible. I’m just going to assume dark wizardry was involved, and just keep my mouth shut. I shall sacrifice several Twix bars in your honor!

I am very happy to introduce Razzball’s 2015 Fantasy Football Projections

 

 

  1. Erich Traum says:
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    Great work once again on the site Jay. Very useful in my draft prep.

    Quick gut-check early draft strategy question:

    I play in a 12-team, 2-QB, 2-RB, 3-WR, 1-TE league. 6 pts for passing TD. Its a keeper league. I am keeping O. Beckham Jr (rnd 14), Kelce (rnd 15) and CJ Anderson (rnd 19). I have a great start already (we minus 5 rounds from where we drafted last year).

    I drew the 3rd overall pick. Luck and Rodgers are 100% going w/ pick 1 and 2. Do I go w/ top RB (AP, Lacy, Bell) or top WR (Brown) w/ pick one and draft QB Rnd 2? Or take the 3rd best QB (who ever that is: Wilson, Manning, Brees) and grab best avail RB/WR in Rnd 2?

    Its driving me crazy.

    thanks in advance.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Erich Traum: Thanks! I like the last option there, if you guarantee a top tier QB there with either Luck or Rodgers, then I like getting a positional guy and then going back into the QB pool.

  2. Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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    Just joined my first commenter league. Long time reader, recent commenter. Already feel like part of the fam….that klepto uncle who drinks Old Milwaukee pounders and leaves the plastic six pack holder attached to the last one while rocking jorts with Jesus sandles and socks in January…but family nonetheless.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      Welcome to the fam! Expect proper dysfunction!

  3. PHENOM says:
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    Why is spiller 5th on one point ppr. And so much lower on here?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @PHENOM: There was a FantasyPros error on translating standard rankings to PPR rankings. That’ll be fixed by tomorrow morning. Also, these will not match the rankers perfectly, as stated in the in the post, as our projection system tries to find a median ground.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @PHENOM: Just to add, he’s more 20ish for me in PPR leagues.

  4. Tom Gallagher says:
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    Draft is this Saturday. I traded my 2nd overall pick for the 11th pick, his 5th round pick and T.Y. Hilton. We get to keep one player, so, do I keep T.Y. Hilton and lose one of my 5th round picks OR keep both 5th round picks and keep Latavius Murray in the last round (Round 24)

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Tom Gallagher: I think TY is a solid option for keeping here.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Mrs.Featherbottom: Haha, the baseball guy who does this is pretty funny too. My favorite is when he has the first overall pick and says something like “Well, I think it’s pretty obvious I’m going to draft the guy named after a fish…” and then drafts Mike Carp.

      • Mrs.Featherbottom says:
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        @Jay: Nice! Looking forward to RCLs this year – and nice work on the podcast this week!

    • I don't want to brag, but i have irritable bowel syndrome says:
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      @Mrs.Featherbottom: there’s probably more “fun” ways to waste 11 people’s couple of minutes.

  5. Allan says:
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    Hey Jay got a draft strategy question for you. I am in a 10 team .5 ppr league. We get five keepers. Mine are Mike Evans and Kelvin Benjamin in the 8th and 9th rounds and Ingram, Latavious Murray, and Jordan Matthews in the 14th, 15th, and 16th. Is that a good enough start to try to go like Gronk and Rodgers/Luck in the first 2 rounds of the draft or do I still need to target some stud RB/WR?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Allan: I think you’re fine at WR, but I’d try to nab an elite RB if he’s there. If not, fall back on your QB strat or if Gronk is there.

      • Allan says:
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        @Jay: Just saw that Benjamin got carted off with an apparent knee injury. How long you think he’d need to be out to make it a better deal to keep Kelce in the 13th instead of Benjamin in the 8th?

        • Jay

          Jay says:
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          @Allan: maybe 4-6 games. Right now it’s looking like a sprained knee. Let’s see how the MRI goes.

  6. Don Majkowski says:
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    Hey Jay,

    What do you think of CJ Anderson this year? I have him as a last round keeper this year, but IDK, I’m not really drinking the Kool-Aid. Obviously I will keep him if I cant trade him before the draft. How do you see his year going? Thanks

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Don Majkowski: I like him a lot this season, and keep in mind that I was one of the few that was urging people not to draft Montee Ball last year.

  7. Matt H says:
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    Thanks a ton for the hard work and great insight!! This will be a big help in my draft this weekend.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Matt H: Thanks for being part of the community and good luck!

  8. Big W says:
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    Hey Jay,

    Hope you are well today sir!

    Today is the first day I’ve checked into the football side of things on Razzball and I just want to know the draft strategy… Perhaps you can provide a link to where it was talked about?

    You know how in baseball you hold on drafting closers till closer to the end (SAGNOF)… Or how you don’t draft a pitcher in the first couple rounds… that sort of thing.

    I know in football things are constantly changing… Like some years in the past it’s ideal to load up on running backs. Delay drafting QB’s until later on…don’t worry about kickers because they are streamable, etc… What to do and what not to do on draft day? Yahoo H2H…likely a 12 team league.

    Any advice or providing of a link would be appreciated, thanks!!

    Willy

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Big W: sure, just click on the “draft kit” button in the menu up above and you’ll find what you need. And any specific questions, I’m happy to help.

  9. Alex says:
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    Keeper auction league, $125 budget, regular scoring, currently keeping Jordy for $11 and A Brown for $15…. Other options are L Murray for $4, Hilton for $8, L Bell for $49, A Rod for $33…. Ur thoughts ?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      I’d keep Murray and Hilton. I’d love to keep Bell, but it depends on how much elite players go for during draft day in your league. If it’s 50-60 bucks, you might have to keep him.

      • Alex says:
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        I gotta keep Jordy ($11) n Brown ($15) for their prices don’t I ? That’s too cheap. And yes elite RBs go for upper $50s n lower $60s….

        • Alex says:
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          Elite wrs also go pretty high. Last yr Calvin went for $51, Dez and other elites went upper $20s so I’m still getting a screaming deal on Jordy n A Brown….

        • Jay

          Jay says:
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          @Alex: Oh yeah, I figured they were already being kept. And if that’s the case, I think you have to keep Bell too. That’s still great value.

  10. TarmanGotHim says:
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    Jay!!

    Drafted team #3

    8th pick, 10 Team H2H 5X5

    QB – Brees RD 5
    WR – Cooks RD 3
    WR – Hopkins RD 4
    WR – Cooper RD 6
    RB – Lynch RD1
    RB – Forte RD 2
    TE – Hill RD 14
    B – Landry RD 7
    B – Blount RD 8
    B – LaFell RD 9
    B – Coleman RD 10
    B – Vereen RD 11
    B – Royal RD 12
    DST – NE RD 13
    K – Carpenter RD 15

    WR’s seemed to go quickly, I def think I have a solid upside Tier1 but more of Tier 2/3 guys all around. I love Cooks, Hopkins can be huge this year, and Landry is so undervalued it makes me sick.

    It was so tough to pass up a duo of Lynch/Forte. CJ Anderson was also available and I have him in another league.

    I think Royal can flourish this year in CHI. Blount should be the clear cut solid #1 right?

    Where I took Forte, D Thomas and ODJ were still available, but it seems to good. I was thinking I could go Murray or Miller as my RB2, but having 2 potential top 5 guys is tough to pass up. Brees will compliment any bad receiving weeks.

    Thanks for the taking the time as always!!!

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @TarmanGotHim: I really like the balance at WR matched with your elite RB pair there. Love that setup. Depth is great too, and I agree, I think Royal could be very useful in Chitwon.

  11. Mike says:
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    Love your view on football….14 team PPR keeper. I was offered the following:

    Give: Luck (5th round, last year to keep) + Jonathan Stewart (12th round with 3 years keeper eligibility) + 16th round pick (last round)

    Receive: Romo (7th round with 3 years of keeper eligibility) + Lamar Miller (5th round with 3 years keeper eligibility) + 4th round pick.

    I like the idea of coming in with Luck at 5th round value but the idea of Miller, Romo and having 2 picks in the 4th round is enticing. We can keep any 3 players drafted in the 4th round or later at the round they were drafted.

    If I hold my keepers are Luck/5, Stewart/12 and Kelce/8.

    If I accept my keepers are Romo/7, Miller/5 and Kelce/8.

    Thoughts?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Mike: Yeah, I think the value of the return here makes it a good deal. And thanks!

  12. RicoSuave says:
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    Great Work Jay, thanks man!

    I’m new at Fantasy Football and I’m in a 10 team PPR league, my draft position is 8 (snake draft)
    Is there any advice/strategy that you could share?
    Thanks again and looking forward to reading your FF articles…
    cheers!

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