The thing that makes me want a wide receiver more than any other wide receiver is his opportunity to blossom.  What we saw last year from Allen Robinson in the 10 weeks prior to his injury was that he was starting to “get it”.  Granted, “it” has so many different ways to be translated, but for this post, let’s just say it was it from a standpoint of becoming a fantasy relevant player.  Players developing in systems, offensively, are always where I tend to lean when looking for my WR3.  Look no further than the current Jags offense.  It is in year two of the phase, and it hinges on Blake Bortles being able to take that next step as a signal caller.  All signs from the preseason tend to be pointing in that direction. I mean, he doesn’t have to explode into the next elite fantasy quarterback, he just needs to manage the game better and with the developing weapons that are now surrounding him, and I think it’s an inevitability that a star is going to blossom from that.  That person is going to be Allen Robinson.

[findthebest id=”gRzYlXCCnbf” title=”Allen Robinson Overview” width=”600″ height=”550″ url=”//” link=”” link_text=”Allen Robinson Overview | PointAfter”]

Despite only playing 11 games last season, Allen Robinson managed 81 targets.  That in itself is good, but let’s look at the passing diversity of the Jags after week 10 and how the numbers he could have had remain true.  The main beneficiary of his injury was Marquis Lee, who himself is already injured this year and looks to be on the outs as a starter with Robinson healthy.  The other main beneficiary is now playing someplace else, him being Cecil Shorts.

Here are Lee’s game stat’s post Robinson injury:

Week Targets Rec Yards
12 5 3 52
13 8 6 75
14 8 5 67
15 9 4 14
16 6 4 65
17 8 2 8

Here are Cecil Shorts stats for same period:

Week Targets Rec Yards
12 3 1 6
13 8 4 35
14 10 2 3
15 11 6 76
16 7 2 15
17 10 5 47

What you will notice is that the target totals are extremely healthy.  Granted, he was probably the third option in the passing game behind both Cecil Shorts and Allen Hurns.  So assuming that he would have been starting in Lee’s place and now that Shorts has migrated to Houston, that would be a total of 93 targets to disperse between himself and newly acquired tight end Julius Thomas.  I am not huge into numbers because counting is for squares, but if he becomes the lead dog in an attack, that will be by, all intents and purpose, losing a lot and be forced to throw the ball a ton… how can 140 plus targets not be possible?  As an added bonus, the Jaguars as a team only threw for 14 touchdowns. That is a statistical anomaly and won’t be repeated with the weapons they have added at the tight end and running back positions.

So the outlook for Robinson is a moderate one, meaning that the Jaguars aren’t going to turn heads offensively, and thus are usually shunned come draft time.  With T.J. Yeldon as the threee down back who can move the chains, and King Julius doing his thing down the middle, the outside will open up for Robinson to be an ADP darling.  He is currently being drafted as the 36th WR off the board and 102nd overall.  If he can extroplate on his numbers from last year, he can easily be a top-20 wide out just by the volume and adding to his and the team’s dismal passing and scoring rate.  Projection: 145 targets, 82 receptions, 1010 yards, 5 touchdowns.



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  1. SwaggerJackers says:

    I don’t trust that ADP you’re reporting.

    According to FantasyPros, he’s going as high as 70 in some leagues.

    I don’t see him slipping past 80 in leagues where people actually pay attention to fantasy football.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:

      @SwaggerJackers: in some strange event ADP changes from when I wrote this til today…crazy right!!! As high as 70 is acomplete outlier, he is in the mid 30’s WR taken wise.

      • SwaggerJackers says:

        @Smokey: I like your sarcasm Smokey!

        It might help to specify what ADP you’re referring to.

        Seriously, Robinson won’t go outside the top 100 overall. He’s going 80 currently in Yahoo and 83 in ESPN. As the A in ADP says, that’s the average in those leagues so there are potentially just as many people are taking him at 70 as there are at 90 for the ADP to land in the 80’s.

        I’m a big Robinson fan, in case you can’t tell, and appreciate this overall post. You’re not the only one that thinks he can be a top 20 WR so some people are drafting him as such. The ADP just seemed out of place with all the other relevant info.

        • Smokey

          Smokey says:

          @SwaggerJackers: Well I did view FantasyPros, along with mocks that I have done myself and CBS rankings. For the uneducated he might which is why I am here.

  2. Wallpaper Paterson says:


    10 team league

    QB, RB, WR, WR, TE

    Will make this a winner-take-all $25 league. $250 to champion.

    If interested, post your email address.

  3. TarmanGotHim says:


    I wasn’t fully prepared as I will be drafting my remaining teams in a couple-few weeks…

    But I absolutely love this team. I am just hoping that Cam comes back to form, which I believe he is healthy so he should have a huge bounce back year.

    A few notes.

    1) I never go TE early, but Graham in round 4 was hard to pass up, although it left me with Allen and Robinson, but the upside is huge and Allen seems to be in great shape and he takes the game seriously, Bortles should take the next step.

    2) I didn’t get any handcuffs, but I am pretty happy with all my back ups.

    QB – Cam Newton
    WR – Randall Cobb
    WR – Keenan Allen
    WR – Allen Robinson
    RB – Marshawn Lynch
    RB – Jeremy Hill
    TE – Jimmy Graham
    B – Joique Bell
    B – Chris Ivory
    B – Jarvis Landry
    B – Davante Adams
    B – Pierre Garcon
    B – Teddy Bridgewater
    K – Justin Tucker
    DST – Arizona

    I took Bridgewater, and I know we don’t like 2 QB’s in a standard 10 Team H2H, but if Cam doesn’t pan out and Teddy takes the next step, could be a good pick.

    My next draft I plan on going RB, RB, WR, WR so I can get two solid tier 1/2 WR’S, and Jeremy Hill was on my radar, I really love the guy, but I almost changed my mind when Nelson and Thomas were available with the 4th pick in the second round, but they went 1,2 respectively before me, and I was hoping Matt Forte fell in the 2nd, nah, and I almost took him with pick 6 in the first, but Lynch fell and He’s gonna have another really good year.

    Let me know your analysis. This is a H2H like I said, not PPR.


    • TarmanGotHim says:

      @TarmanGotHim: I’m looking at my stupid Yahoo draft grade, which is really good, but it made me realize Teddy and Cam are both on a BYE the same week. whoops. lol.

      • Smokey

        Smokey says:

        @TarmanGotHim: Ehh the bye stuff happens. I drafted 3 Rb’s the other day with all the same bye. Team looks good depth all around, minus the QB thing…find a Teddy believer and who doesn’t love Teddies!

        • TarmanGotHim says:

          @Smokey: Thanks!! So you like Cam or/or Teddy? Or you’re saying you don’t believe in 2 QB’s?

          Ultimately I’m banking on a Beckham Jr. Wire guy or a trade for another top tier WR.

          • Chicken Dinner says:

            @TarmanGotHim: I don’t see two QBs as being bad if you get, say…..Brady and Bradford or Stafford and Culter later in the draft. Could be a nice trade piece. Having two with the same bye obviously kills the value for your and will drive down the trade value. I personally think Bridgewater is getting too much hype.

  4. BillieBeeen says:

    Im in a PPR keeper league. 4ptTD for QBs. 1QB-2RB-4Receiver-1Flex-1SuperFlex. I need one more guy between $5RyanMathews, $5Polk, $6Maclin and $8KelBenjamin. What order would you place them in?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:

      @BillieBeeen: Benji, Maclin… I wouldn’t really consider the others to be honest unless its a 16 plus teamer

      • Billie beeen says:

        @Smokey: yeah. 14 teamer and noooo kickers. Thanks and good luck.

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