2020 Shadow Coverage Report

Cleveland Browns

Division: AFC North

WR1: Odell Beckham Jr.

Number of Potential Shadow Coverage Match-ups: 4

Historical Production

Odell Beckham vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games PPG
Vs. Shadow Coverage
10 11.2
All other opponents
18 12.9

Odell Beckham’s down 2019 seems to be due to many factors. This includes injury, switching teams and poor coaching. Many of these things seem to be remedied as a healthy off-season, new coaching staff and continuity with Baker should help him improve in 2020. Last season while dealing with all those factors Odell had a tough schedule that included games vs. the NFC west and AFC east divisions that have many notable corners. This resulted in Odell only averaging 7.6 PPG in those contests and finishing at 10.3 PPG in .5 PPR overall. Flashback to 2018 and Odell was much more productive vs. notable corners including Jalen Ramsey, James Bradberry and Josh Norman. In each of those games he cleared 100 yards and had at least 8 receptions.

2020 Shadow Coverage Scheduler

Cleveland Browns
Team Week(s) Player
2019 Yards Per Covered Snap
Washington Redskins 3 TBD TBD
Jacksonville Jaguars 12 C.J. Henderson Rookie
Tenneesee Titans 13 Adoree’ Jackson 0.94
New York Giants 15 James Bradberry 1.14
League Average 2019 Yards Per Covered Snap 1.31

 

We can’t just overlook the fact that the Browns play two top defenses in Pittsburgh and Baltimore in their own division that held Beckham to 7 PPG in .5 PPR last season. Good news for Beckham is one of their game’s vs Pittsburgh will be in week 17 while vs. Baltimore last year Beckham was able to find the end zone in the second match-up.  Now that we covered that let’s focus on how awesome Beckham’s schedule is for this season. In 2020 he only has 4 shadow coverage match-ups and only 1 is vs. a tier 1 corner. This is a nice change of pace from 2019 where he faced 5 tier 1 corners on top of his tough division schedule.

Early Season Schedule (Weeks 1-4)

After a week 1 match-up vs. Baltimore Odell’s schedule is wide open for a bounce back. The only shadow coverage match-up early for Odell is against the Washington Football Team who at this point in time doesn’t have a top tier corner to shut down Odell. Other match-ups include the Dallas Cowboys who just lost Byron Jones and the Browns division rival the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals did use William Jackson to shadow Odell once last year, and in that match-up he held Odell to 2-39. We will need to monitor reports that week to see if Jackson could be tasked to follow Beckham again. Overall, I don’t believe any of these teams have a cornerback that can keep up with a healthy Odell so a quick start could be in the cards for him.

Fantasy Playoffs Schedule (Weeks 14-16)

Heading into the fantasy playoffs Odell does have some potential shadow coverage match-ups including rookie C.J. Henderson and the Jacksonville Jaguars and Adoree Jackson and the Tennessee Titans. Neither match-up is imposing as the Titans have yet to use Jackson as a full-time shadow corner and Henderson of course is a rookie.

In weeks 14-16 Beckham has 1 shadow coverage match-up. This comes in week 15 vs. his former team and James Bradberry. Odell faced off vs. Bradberry back in 2018 and he torched him for 8-131-1. Plus on top of all that Odell will probably have some extra juice squaring off vs. his old team so sitting him is probably a bad idea.

2020 Draft Recommendation

Currently being drafted in the middle of the 3rd round at pick 29, Odell has a big opportunity to bounce back with a softer schedule in 2020. However, with Austin Hooper and a healthy David Njoku the number of targets to go around shouldn’t vault Odell back into the top 10. At his current WR 10 ADP Odell won’t have the volume to compete for top 5 value, but he should improve on his WR 34 PPG finish from 2019. In conclusion even with the softer schedule I am not buying Odell in round 3, but if he slips a round I would be more than willing to grab him in drafts. Players going around Odell I would rather draft include James Conner, Chris Carson, Mike Evans and Adam Thielen