2020 Shadow Coverage Report

Miami Dolphins

Division: AFC EAST

WR1: Devante Parker

Number of Potential Shadow Coverage Match-ups: 8

Historical Production

DeVante Parker vs. Shadow Coverage in 2019
Opponent Games PPG
Vs. Shadow Coverage
4 13.6
All other opponents
12 13.0

DeVante Parker was nothing short of amazing in 2019 as his career year came at a fantastic time aka his contract year. Now after a big pay day Parker needs to show that 2019 was no fluke. Last season down the stretch Parker beat up on some notable corners including Tre’Davious White (7-135), William Jackson (5-111) and Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore (8-137). Granted during that time Parker was the only show in town as he averaged 12 targets in those games which is an unsustainable 16 game pace of 192. All in all, it was still impressive none the less.

2020 Shadow Coverage Schedule

Miami Dolphins
Team Week(s) Player
2019 Yards Per Covered Snap
New England Patriots
1,15 Stephon Gilmore 1.06
Buffalo Bills 2 Tre’Davious White 1.02
Jacksonville Jaguars
3 C.J. Henderson Rookie
Denver Broncos 6 A.J. Bouye 1.48
Los Angeles Chargers
7
Casey Hayward Jr. 0.71
Chris Harris Jr. 1.12
Los Angeles Rams
8 Jalen Ramsey 1.15
Arizona Cardinals
9 Patrick Peterson 1.25
League Average 2019 Yards Per Covered Snap 1.31

 

Early Season Schedule (Weeks 1-4)

Typically, we discuss weeks 1-4 in this section, but Parker’s schedule can be extended to week 9. Parker has 7 shadow coverage match-ups in those first 9 games including 6 vs tier 1 corners. We shouldn’t totally discount Parker as he has proven to win in these match-ups. However, with his otherworldly target volume from the second half of 2019 most likely coming down these match-ups will be a lot tougher on 7-9 targets instead of 12 he was seeing without Preston Williams in the lineup.

Week 1 is a revenge game for the reigning DPOY Stephon Gilmore who got his a** handed to him in week 17 vs. Parker. Don’t be fooled by this one game as Gilmore is an elite corner. In 2019, he held 13 of his 16 wide receivers match-ups to under 10 points in .5 PPR. Overall wide receivers averaged just 6.5 points per game last season when under Gilmore’s shadow coverage. I know week 17 was nice but starting Parker week 1 offers little upside.

Week 2 Parker will face another familiar foe in Tre’Davious White. Last year as discussed above Parker got the best of White as he was the only player to get over 100 yards on the season in White’s shadow coverage. It is notable that White typically struggles vs. bigger wide receivers as Kenny Golladay, DeAndre Hopkins and Davante Adams all played well vs. White. Parker at 6’3 216 fits the bill and should be started in season long leagues but continue to fade him in DFS.

The next week the Dolphins square off vs. the Jaguars and rookie C.J. Henderson. Early camp reports suggest that the rookie looks the part. Still, until proven otherwise I would expect Parker to welcome the rookie to the NFL with a kick in the a** and a solid performance.

Hey, let’s say Parker does perfectly fine and is still getting you WR2 numbers up to this point. After the early season schedule he then has match-ups vs the Seahawks (at home) and the 49ers (on the road). Surprisingly that was the easy part. Starting in week 6, Parker hands down has the toughest 4 game shadow coverage stretch that I have seen so far. In those games he will face 5 corners with a combined 18 pro bowls. Hopefully by this time Preston Williams has emerged and teams can’t just focus just on Parker. Either way unless Parker has proven to be match-up proof he might be nothing more than a flex weeks 6-9 (I swear I didn’t plan that).

Fantasy Playoffs Schedule (Weeks 14-16)

Ah the light at the end of the tunnel. If you made it this far into this article and the season with Parker there might be some hope…kind of. The rest of the schedule is not too bad as the Dolphins play the Jets twice and the Bengals before the fantasy playoffs.

Even though there is no shadow corner, Parker’s week 14 match-up vs. the Chiefs is notable. Last year Football Outsiders rated the Chiefs as a top 3 defense vs. opposing #1s, but this is a shadow coverage article, so I will just focus on that #stayinyourlane.

Parker only has 1 shadow coverage match-up in the fantasy playoffs which comes in week 15 vs. Gilmore and the Patriots once again. If Fitzpatrick is still somehow the QB at this point then we can use how Parker performs in week 1 to see if he is worth fading in this round.

FYI week 16 the Dolphins face the Oakland Raiders #allisforgiven

2020 Draft Recommendation

I mean I would put just one word here….DON’T, but I would probably lose my writing privileges at Razzball. So Currently being drafted at the 5/6 turn at pick 61 according to NFFC ADP, Parker’s price tag is not terrible. However, due to his tough early season schedule I would much rather pivot to players like T.Y. Hilton, Marquise Brown or at Running Back Ronald Jones. Hilton especially has one of the best shadow coverage match-up schedules as he doesn’t face 1 tier 1 cornerback in 2020.