2020 Shadow Coverage Report – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Division: NFC South

WR1: Mike Evans

Number of Potential Shadow Coverage Match-ups: 8

Historical Production

Mike Evans vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games PPG
Vs. Shadow Coverage 11 12.1
All other opponents 18 17.2

*Point per game based on receiving stats only

When reviewing Mike Evans stats vs. shadow coverage the numbers are pretty staggering as his PPG in .5 PPR drops over 5 points when facing notable shadow coverage match-ups. These numbers include a dominate week 3 performance vs. Janoris Jenkins where Evans torched him for 8-190-3. Outside of that game Evans has failed to hit double digit fantasy points in 6 of the 10 remaining games with only 3 of them producing top 24 fantasy weeks. 

2020 Schedule

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Team Week(s) Player
2019 Yards Per Covered Snap
New Orleans Saints 1,9 Marshon Lattimore 1.21
Denver Broncos 3 A.J. Bouye 1.48
Los Angeles Chargers
4
Casey Hayward Jr. 0.71
Chris Harris Jr. 1.12
Green Bay Packers 6 Jaire Alexander 1.3
New York Giants 8 James Bradberry 1.14
Los Angeles Rams 11 Jalen Ramsey 1.15
Detroit Lions 16 Jeffrey Okudah N/A
League Average 2019 Yards Per Covered Snap 1.31

 

Mike Evans has 8 shadow corner match-ups heading into this season with 7 of them coming against tier 1 cornerbacks. In his own division things are looking up for Evans as notable shadow corner James Bradberry has left in free agency. Evans will still have to see Marshon Lattimore twice next season, but the loss of Bradberry is an immediate boost. Ironically Evans does have to face off vs. Bradberry this season as the Bucs do play the Giants in week 8. That being said, not facing him twice a year will help Evans moving forward. Something notable about Evans is that he is one of the most heavily targeted wide receivers when it comes to shadow coverage, but this year will be the first time he faces notable cornerbacks Casey Hayward and Jalen Ramsey

Early Season Schedule (Weeks 1-4)

Evans arguably has the toughest early season schedule of any wide receiver in 2020. In week 1 he faces his old foe Marshon Lattimore who after getting owned by Evans for 7-147-1 in week 1 of 2018 has bounced back nicely holding Evans to 5.3 PPG in their next two match-ups. The next early season match-up comes in week 3 as the Bucs take on the Denver Broncos and newly acquired A.J Bouye. In 2019, Bouye held Evans to 4-53 which resulted in a wide receiver 52 finish on the week. Finally, in week 4, Evans could see his toughest test yet as the Bucs will face off vs. LA Chargers and the dynamic duo of Casey Hayward and Chris Harris. Hayward last season held opponents to .71 yards per covered snap while Harris was dominate in his own right holding wide receivers well below the league average at 1.12.

Fantasy Playoff Schedule (Weeks 14-16)

Mike Evans’ schedule opens up after week 4 as he only has 5 match-ups the rest of the year vs. shadow coverage, and only 1 in the fantasy playoffs. These match-ups include week 6 (Jaire Alexander) week 8 (James Bradberry), week 11 (Jalen Ramsey) and week 16 (Jeffrey Okudah). The playoff match-ups comes in week 16 vs. the Detroit Lions and rookie Jeffrey Okudah. Okudah has the draft capital to be a premier cornerback in this league, but until the games start we really won’t know how good he will be in the NFL. This playoff schedule which also includes the Atlanta Falcons and Minnesota Vikings could make Evans a sold trade target before the deadline. 

2020 Draft Recommendation

Mike Evans is currently being drafted as the wide receiver 10 in the middle of the 3rd round,  and over the course of the season he should return value at that draft cost. However, with the tough early season schedule on the horizon pivoting in the draft and instead targeting Evans after Week 4 could be a very good strategy this season. Even if you want to wait until the trade deadline, Evans softer playoff schedule could help fantasy teams win a title in 2020.

  1. everywhereblair

    everywhereblair says:
    (link)

    Great work, Bobby!

    • Bobby LaMarco

      Bobby LaMarco says:
      (link)

      Thank you! I appreciate the feedback.

Comments are closed.