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B_Don and Donkey Teeth are back to discuss the recent Dynasty Best Ball draft. It's a good thing that we put this league together because looking at the names in the draft.

We review our drafts and talk about our approach to a format that doesn't have much discussion around it, best ball dynasty fantasy football. What do the guys do differently in these drafts? How do they split out their rosters? Then, we discuss some of the early round picks with surprises and where some values came out of the draft. 

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What is up every baller!? We here at Razzball have been working tirelessly behind the scenes to prepare the next RazzBowl for you! Let's jump over to our fearless leader DonkeyTeeth for the 2021 update!  [camera cuts to DT, who is pouring a can of Pepsi into his Cheerios at breakfast]  Well, well, well! I suppose I should have warned Mr. Teeth about our meeting today. But never fear, for I know that scene you just saw was fake news. DonkeyTeeth is a Dr. Pepper man! I suppose I can catch you up on the updates instead. Like, the 2021 RazzBowl is powered by imagination! Whee! And we have backing from financial sponsors [checks notes] Bernie Madoff and Martha Stewart. Wow, what celebrity power! I better stop while I'm ahead. Let's get to the specifics and get you signed up for your free shot at fantasy super-stardom! 

Does Draft Capital Matter For Future Fantasy Success?

Now we know we are not the first to journey down this path, but we are here to simplify the search. What we did was look back over the last 10 years (2011-2020) to see how many consistent fantasy contributors came out of each round of the NFL draft. We aren’t going to be talking about one hit wonders. Instead, we are highlighting the players who were able to sustain some level of fantasy success over their careers.

In this article we are reviewing the running back position. The benchmark used was 10 points per game in half point per reception (PPR) for their career. Before anyone loses their minds, this article isn’t saying that 10 points per game is a top 24 running back each year. However, the lower points per game helps take into account flex spots to start a 3rd running back and/or a down year from an otherwise consistent starting tailback.

Below you will find a chart breaking out draft capital by round for running backs. The chart is broken out into four columns:

  1. Round Drafted – Identifies the round in the NFL draft that the running backs were drafted
  2. Total running backs drafted – This is the total number of running backs drafted in that round over the past 10 years
  3. Career 10 PPG in .5 PPR – This column represents how many running backs drafted in that round hit the benchmark of 10 PPG for their careers in .5 PPR
  4. % Hit Rate – The final column shows what percentage of the running backs drafted in that round hit that benchmark

Feel free to just review the chart only and take what you want from it. If you want some additional insight on how we feel about 2021 prospects based on this data it will be included later in the article!

Round Drafted Total
Running Backs Drafted
Career
10 PPG in .5 PPR
% Hit Rate
1 14 11 79%
2 29 13 45%
3 30 7 23%
4 45 3 7%
5 31 3 10%
6 34 0 0%
7 40 2 5%
Total 223 39 17%
Totals after Round 3 150 8 5.30%

The sports entertainment world really seems to center around the NFL. Best Ball lobbies are full, and you can draft on several sites like Yahoo and Underdog right now for the 2021 NFL Season. There is a ton of excitement in the air for this NFL season and having a more normal fantasy schedule for 2021.

If you need any more proof that people are excited about the NFL, even in May, you can check out BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds right now. They have futures up for every team, as well as Week 1 spreads, moneylines, and point totals. You can use the BetMGM promotional signup bonus when making your account to receive a $600 risk-free bet. The NFL is just one of your options to use that risk-free wager on.

I met my wife, Mrs. The Joey Wright, in the budding spring of 2004. We got married in the blistering winter of 2014. “Ten years!” you might be saying to yourself, “why would you wait ten years to marry the woman of your dreams?” Your thoughts would be echoing the thoughts of my friends and family during the decade-long proverbial dragging of my feet. I guess you could say I have always subscribed to the “good things come to those who wait” philosophy in life and most definitely when it pertains to drafting quarterbacks for my fantasy teams. I rarely use a pick before round seven on a quarterback, in one quarterback leagues, unless the value is completely justified. It is the one piece of advice I was given early in my days of playing fantasy football and it is the one recommendation I always give to people just starting out. Most of the time, when sticking to my usual method of waiting, I will end up taking two. This is also where the waiting on marriage and waiting on quarterback analogy ends. I am not here championing multiple spouses. Just wanted to make that clear. Since 2016, nearly half of the top ten quarterbacks have been drafted outside the top ten at the position. The only year at least five of the top ten finishing quarterbacks were not drafted as the QB10 or later was 2020, where only four accomplished the task. In both 2018 and 2019, the quarterbacks finishing first, second, and third were taken as the eleventh quarterback off the board or later. The savvy team managers who loaded up on their running backs, wide receivers, filled their flexes, maybe took a top-tier tight end before addressing quarterback were swimming in gold if they hit on say Mahomes, Ryan, or Roethlisberger in 2018. However, you are just as likely to take a top ten quarterback and have them return top ten value. Although the number one quarterback in ADP has not finished the season as the number one quarterback in fantasy points since 2012. Throwing out Aaron Rodgers’ 2017 injury-plagued season, the QB1 has an average finish of around QB8 the last five years. Numbers like those give me pause and I would rather use my earlier picks giving my teams foundation and depth.

Not much changed after the draft, which is probably how it should be. While some landing spots may pay more immediate dividends, talent wins out in the end. Landing spot has nothing to do with talent. Draft capital is a different story, as the round selected does project future success. But I try not to concern myself too much with the actual team a player gets drafted to. 

There were some movers such as Kadarius Toney and D'Wayne Eskridge who secured earlier picks than I assumed. In the case of Toney, despite not being impressed by his profile, there comes a point where first round capital trumps my personal evaluation. Let me know what you think in the comments! Who did I miss? Who shouldn't be here? 

Last week I detailed the first round of the industry dynasty best ball draft we hosted here at Razzball. There were a diverse array of strategies on display in this matchup of fantasy football titans and Donkey Teeth. You can view the entire draft board here. Jake Ciely was making draft pick trades like Kevin Costner in Draft Day, as he put together a team packed full of youth. On the other hand Scott Pianowski attempted to assemble the oldest dynasty team in history, but was foiled when his friend Andy Behrens sniped Adrian Peterson in the 26th round. One of the most titillating aspects to analyze in any startup dynasty league is where the incoming rookie class goes off the board. But first, let's take a look at which of our competing analysts selected the most and least rookies in this draft:

Meet Pat. Pat’s first offensive coordinator gig came back in 2009. That year Pat aka Pat Shurmur gave a little-known back named Steven Jackson back-to-back seasons of 300 plus carries (324 and 330 carries to be exact).

Shurmur turned this RBBC commitment into a head coaching job. His first season as a Head Coach Pat gave former madden cover great Peyton Hillis 16.1 carriers per game. Realizing Hillis has allowed his madden cover experience to go to his head, the Browns decided to draft dynamo Trent Richardson 3rd overall. In Trent’s first season Shurmur gave him a very modest 17.8 carriers per game.

Unfortunately, drafting Richardson didn't lead to a 3rd season (go figure), but Shurmur landed on his feet alongside a college football offensive innovator named Chip Kelly. In the first two seasons as Kelly's offensive coordinator, Shurmur gave a slippery running back named LeSean McCoy 314 and 313 carries per year. However, due to some unforeseen differences McCoy left and they replaced him with former workhorse DeMarco Murray.

I've spent the entire offseason rounding up the who's who of the fantasy football industry. You see, I needed to boost 50 cars in 72 hours to keep my kid brother from getting murdered by a scary mobster. Wait, that was the plot from Gone in 60 Seconds. Sometimes I get my life confused with Nicolas Cage movies. One day I'll have to tell you about the whole Face Off debacle; what a mess! Anyway, I felt a lot like Memphis Raines rounding up his car theft crew when I was recruiting this all star cast for the Razzball Dynasty Best Ball League: a 12-team, half PPR league featuring a 28-player roster and starting lineups consisting of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 FLEX and no defense or kickers. If you're unfamiliar with the glorious best ball format, it's a league format designed for minimal in season management, where the computer will select your optimal starting lineup each week AFTER that week's NFL games have been played. 

Here's the full star studded list of industry participants and the league's official draft order:

1. Michael Salfino | The Athletic

2. Dalton Del Don | Yahoo

3. Pat Fitzmaurice | The Football Guys & The Football Girl

4. Rudy Gamble | Razzball

5. Dave Richard | CBS

6. Donkey Teeth | Razzball

7. Jake Ciely | The Athletic

8. Heath Cummings | CBS

9. Nando Di Fino | The Athletic

10. Andy Behrens | Yahoo

11. Scott Pianowski | Yahoo

12. Brandon Myers | Razzball

We're now about halfway through our 28-round draft, and today I'll be recapping the first round which was full of wheeling and dealing—that's right, we allow trades in our dynasty best ball league!